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Mr Miyagi

Cold Winter?

If I had my way, the thermostat would be set to...  

106 members have voted

  1. 1. If I had my way, in winter the thermostat would be set to...

    • 23°C and up
      6
    • 22°C
      7
    • 21°C
      15
    • 20°C
      28
    • 19°C
      18
    • 18°C
      16
    • 17°C or under
      7
    • Off
      6
    • Other / I live overseas
      4


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I was at a training course this week and the presenter said it was likely we were heading towards a period of bad winters due to sun spot activity....

Historically winters in the UK have been bad..... They used to have fairs on the Thames when it froze over. 

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4 minutes ago, Great Guy said:

I was at a training course this week and the presenter said it was likely we were heading towards a period of bad winters due to sun spot activity....

Historically winters in the UK have been bad..... They used to have fairs on the Thames when it froze over. 

I call those good winters. As long as you're not homeless or something then surely everyone likes a bit of snowy winter wonderland. Always an excuse to not go to the office and "work from pub" instead. 

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Winters are always the worst on record when viewed from the end of the summer before, but usually turn out average when viewed from the beginning of the summer after.

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5 minutes ago, Errol said:

Given the price of gas at the moment, we better hope not.

Maybe they :ph34r: pricing it in. 

Given the prevalence of easterly winds in both winter and summer recently, I'd back a cold winter. 

But listen to BBC Roger Hatrabin for the true story of course, we don't want fake news around here. 

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40 minutes ago, Sgt Hartman said:

I love a proper winter. If it's snowy I tend to head straight for the mountains as they are a different world when covered in snow and ice.

I did Scafell last year during 'the beast from the east'. It was about - 23 at the top with the wind, my beard froze.

Bit nippy, what.

The beast wasn't actually that cold. Just a bit of wind chill. 

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

Winters are always the worst on record when viewed from the end of the summer before, but usually turn out average when viewed from the beginning of the summer after.

The issue is often with the ‘since records began’ - you imagine that to be like the Domesday record, or something, but it turns out to be 1994.

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Does anyone remember on here, a few weeks before the Beast From The East was ever mentioned, there was a forum where some very clever people dissected long range forecasts and basically predicted it perfectly? I can't remember who posted the link to that site but I'd be interested in seeing what they're saying now...

On 01/09/2018 at 18:23, Stuey said:

The beast wasn't actually that cold. Just a bit of wind chill. 

It was -15C here in Kent! :Old:

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11 minutes ago, choochoo said:

They speak another language in there which I am unable to skim-read and get much information from. We need a Dosbods weather nerd who can translate.

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3 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

They speak another language in there which I am unable to skim-read and get much information from. We need a Dosbods weather nerd who can translate.

Generally the models only look 9 days ahead - http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html. Obviously the further out you go the less accurate it gets. The model discussion thread focuses on that. High pressure equals settled weather, low pressure the opposite.  Click on the 500hpa bodendruck panel tab. 

The stratosphere temperature watch thread is looking for signs further up in the atmosphere, this tends to give an indication of medium to long term expectations. Last year they fairly accurately predicted the beast from the east weeks in advance due to a slow down and eventual reversal in the high level polar winds, allowing cold air to sink out of the arctic.

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11 minutes ago, choochoo said:

Generally the models only look 9 days ahead - http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html. Obviously the further out you go the less accurate it gets. The model discussion thread focuses on that. High pressure equals settled weather, low pressure the opposite.  Click on the 500hpa bodendruck panel tab. 

The stratosphere temperature watch thread is looking for signs further up in the atmosphere, this tends to give an indication of medium to long term expectations. Last year they fairly accurately predicted the beast from the east weeks in advance due to a slow down and eventual reversal in the high level polar winds, allowing cold air to sink out of the arctic.

Thanks, that's really useful. For the stratospheric predictions I skimmed through and it looks like they're predicting a very cold winter like in 2009/10, which was the coldest for 40 years. Great!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/how/case-studies/winter09-10

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On 01/09/2018 at 12:38, Great Guy said:

I was at a training course this week and the presenter said it was likely we were heading towards a period of bad winters due to sun spot activity....

Historically winters in the UK have been bad..... They used to have fairs on the Thames when it froze over. 

The Thames (at London at least) will never freeze over again because

1) it didnt tend to freeze over in the past. There were just a bunch of cold winters in the late victorian period when Dickens was writing his books

2) London was a lot smaller then, with no real 'urban heat island'

3) The thames wasnt embanked so narrowly then, so the river was shallower and flowed more slowly. Today its narrower and faster flowing, which makes freezing over, even given similar weather conditions, impossible.

        

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6 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

The Thames (at London at least) will never freeze over again because

1) it didnt tend to freeze over in the past. There were just a bunch of cold winters in the late victorian period when Dickens was writing his books

2) London was a lot smaller then, with no real 'urban heat island'

3) The thames wasnt embanked so narrowly then, so the river was shallower and flowed more slowly. Today its narrower and faster flowing, which makes freezing over, even given similar weather conditions, impossible.

        

might get a bit icy when the next ice age comes ie every 10000 years, currently overdue

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On 01/09/2018 at 17:42, Sgt Hartman said:

I love a proper winter.

Same here, and I'm on a narrowboat.  You have to plan ahead to be in a good location when the canal freezes over, and be well stocked up with coal and gas, but with the fire going the boat stays super toasty and warm.  All very cosy.

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Just now, ashestoashes said:

might get a bit icy when the next ice age comes ie every 10000 years, currently overdue

I'd imagine any ice age would take centuries, even millennia to put us in its frigid clutches. Though the day after tomorrow was entertaining enough, i'm not sure its possible for such things to just spontaneously take hold. 

2 minutes ago, MvR said:

Same here, and I'm on a narrowboat.  You have to plan ahead to be in a good location when the canal freezes over, and be well stocked up with coal and gas, but with the fire going the boat stays super toasty and warm.  All very cosy.

At least here in the countryside during a frosty spell the mud freezes and you can actually go for walks. Wet and mild means a slippy slush fest anywhere outside urban areas.

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3 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

I'd imagine any ice age would take centuries, even millennia to put us in its frigid clutches. Though the day after tomorrow was entertaining enough, i'm not sure its possible for such things to just spontaneously take hold. 

the frozen woolly mammoths in siberia still had grass in their stomachs, so watch out for advancing glaciers 

by never you mean't until the next ice age, ok

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43 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

the frozen woolly mammoths in siberia still had grass in their stomachs, so watch out for advancing glaciers 

by never you mean't until the next ice age, ok

1. I'd imagine those wooly mammoths were ill and about to die anyway. Its as cold in siberia today, on occasion, as it ever was. They evolved to deal with -70c temps. 

2. Such parts of the world do indeed, still to this day, have wild swings of temperature that could more or less instantaneously freeze anything that hasnt evolved to deal with it, or else is ill. IIRC in Nebraska or Montana or somewhere, the temperature dropped from 7c one afternoon to -49c the next morning. 

 

The actual extremes of temperatures, particularly in places like siberia, werent much different to today. But places on the cusp, like western europe, really suffered.

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