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One percent

In respect for ToS, houseprices are moving sideways

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The landlord tax has definitely had an effect and looks like the FTB's just can't bid up the pricing any further. They've been heavily advertised to and targeted in the vacuum formed by the exit of the mass of rental buyers.

Pretty much hinges on the FTB numbers now, there''s now loads of under 40's that would like to buy but how many can? If FTB mortgage applications start to drop (corrected for seasonal trends) then that's it the market's cooked barring additional extraordinary intervention, which of course we've already had in spades. All markets are in bubble territory so another trigger could come from anywhere - stock market, bonds, or the real estate market itself if any one of those breaks it will force redemptions and selloffs in the others.

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On 25/05/2017 at 23:41, onlyme said:

The landlord tax has definitely had an effect and looks like the FTB's just can't bid up the pricing any further. They've been heavily advertised to and targeted in the vacuum formed by the exit of the mass of rental buyers.

Pretty much hinges on the FTB numbers now, there''s now loads of under 40's that would like to buy but how many can? If FTB mortgage applications start to drop (corrected for seasonal trends) then that's it the market's cooked barring additional extraordinary intervention, which of course we've already had in spades. All markets are in bubble territory so another trigger could come from anywhere - stock market, bonds, or the real estate market itself if any one of those breaks it will force redemptions and selloffs in the others.

 

On 26/05/2017 at 00:18, Green Devil said:

HTB 60% ?

My neighbors who currently rent are ftb. Not young but with a rent of 1.5k per month have not been able to save. Government are willing to chuck 25 percent at them.  They have found a new build for 540k. Say that slowly. Over half a million quid. O.o

and no, it is not some kind of palatial mansion. It's a VERY small three bed with one of the bedrooms over the garage. 

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29 minutes ago, One percent said:

 

My neighbors who currently rent are ftb. Not young but with a rent of 1.5k per month have not been able to save. Government are willing to chuck 25 percent at them.  They have found a new build for 540k. Say that slowly. Over half a million quid. O.o

and no, it is not some kind of palatial mansion. It's a VERY small three bed with one of the bedrooms over the garage. 

Housing in this country is seriously fucked up.

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1 minute ago, swissy_fit said:

It's the single biggest problem in the UK IMO. Fixing it would bankrupt the banks and the uk, so no government can attempt much.

Until they can't. Imho, they have created a monster. At some point it will reach critical mass and collapse. It is no sustainable. 

A young couple in my street are contemplating buying their first home for MORE THAN HALF A MILLION.  An what planet is this sustainable?

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10 hours ago, One percent said:

Until they can't. Imho, they have created a monster. At some point it will reach critical mass and collapse. It is no sustainable. 

A young couple in my street are contemplating buying their first home for MORE THAN HALF A MILLION.  An what planet is this sustainable?

Define sustainable. All Property was owned by a tiny minority for many centuries, so this could be regarded as the default situation of elite and rent slaves. Then there were the two world wars. The elite didn't like the following 45 years very much and have finally worked out ways to slowly put the slaves back in the cages and return to the default.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

Define sustainable. All Property was owned by a tiny minority for many centuries, so this could be regarded as the default situation of elite and rent slaves. Then there were the two world wars. The elite didn't like the following 45 years very much and have finally worked out ways to slowly put the slaves back in the cages and return to the default.

 

 

Yes but things are different now in so many ways. For one, the young have largely switched off from it.  People moan that the young are feckless and don't work hard.  Well I can't blame them.  What is the point of working as no matter how hard you work, you can never achieve independence as your parents and grandparents did. 

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I think the top may well have been in February 2017 when you put these stories together.

And it's coinciding with a huge amount of new build as anybody who takes a drive in the countryside will see.

I have for a long tiem been expecting a long slump rather than a crash but the house builders have no choice but to shift these new builds at any price because they can't just decide not to move like a private seller.  So there may actually be enough momentum for a crash this time.  I'd be surprised but it woudl be a welcome surprise.  And if it's a massive crash then I just might be bringing forward my retirement plans.

 

 

House price falls and the previous growth was weak

Quote

 

UK house prices fell for the third consecutive month in May, according to the Nationwide.

It was the first time that prices had fallen for three months in a row since 2009, the building society said.

Prices dropped 0.2% in May, while the annual rate of price growth slowed to 2.1% - the weakest pace for almost four years.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40117132
 

Mortgage approvals at seven-month low

Quote

 

Fixed mortgage rates have fallen to new lows, but home loan approvals have also fallen to their lowest level since September.

There were 64,645 mortgage approvals for house purchases in April, the Bank of England said, a 2% fall on the previous month.

Mortgage lenders have told of a fall in demand, despite the low rates on offer.


 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40105387

(my highlights)

 

Continued falls in London rents:

Quote

Rents in London have dropped for a fifth successive month amid political uncertainty, a new report from lettings agency Your Move said on Tuesday.

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/london-rents-keep-falling-on-election-jitters-a3552261.html

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I'm seeing the same houses for sale at the exact same price as when I last looked, over a year ago. In real terms that means they've reduced the price by -3% or so due to inflation.

I think the top was spring 2016. Volumes have tanked since brexit, you only need your eyes and ears to realise this.

Using the ToS for inspiration, it won't be long before I create my own version of the  "Troubling Times at the EA Office Indeed" thread....

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'Sideways'. Like a crab? O.o

I'm looking at 1 and 2 br flats in my area and there seems to be more discounts on the initial asking prices. Still a long way to go, however.

Some 1 bedders are dropping below £100k in my area as realism slowly hits hard. My magic number is £70k for a tidy 1 bedder or doer upper 2 bedder.

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7 hours ago, UmBongo said:

'Sideways'. Like a crab? O.o

I'm looking at 1 and 2 br flats in my area and there seems to be more discounts on the initial asking prices. Still a long way to go, however.

Some 1 bedders are dropping below £100k in my area as realism slowly hits hard. My magic number is £70k for a tidy 1 bedder or doer upper 2 bedder.

£20,000 is the correct price.

Pay any more than that and you keep the whole sack of shit going.

Don't do it...

 

XYY

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20 hours ago, The XYY Man said:

£20,000 is the correct price.

Pay any more than that and you keep the whole sack of shit going.

Don't do it...

 

XYY

£20k -really? That's a 1980s price for a flat.

Of course I'd rather pay £20k than £70k but even i can't see prices of leasehold flats falling that far.

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7 hours ago, UmBongo said:

£20k -really? That's a 1980s price for a flat.

Of course I'd rather pay £20k than £70k but even i can't see prices of leasehold flats falling that far.

Perhaps not in the South - though if you soft-fuckers resited it a bit that might make 50k attainable.

But up here in God's own - it's a fucking fire-sale...!

Homes under the Hummer...

;)

 

XYY

 

 

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3 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

Perhaps not in the South - though if you soft-fuckers resited it a bit that might make 50k attainable.

But up here in God's own - it's a fucking fire-sale...!

Homes under the Hummer...

 

XYY

 

 

Ooh, have got a hummer?  Cool. 

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London leading way down on rents - continued massacre will make the place much less liveable, having the market already at the top and starting to fall could cause it to topple. Lenders will have to reassess risk  and factor in falling rents into their lending models. 

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-rents-fall-for-first-time-since-2009-homelet-index-2017-6?r=UK&IR=T

UK rents are falling for the first time since the 2009 crash

LONDON — UK rental prices fell for the first time in eight years in May, according to the latest HomeLet Rental Index.

It found that the average monthly cost of a new tenancy fell to £901 in May, down 0.3% from £904 in the same month last year.

 

New tenancies on rents in London (including Greater London) were 3% lower than this time last year, down to £1,502 from £1,519.

Edited by onlyme

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Personal anecdote. A client is trying to sell their 3 bed semi, at the going rate for the area. Not had one enquiry since putting it up for sale in Feb.

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9 hours ago, Snow bird said:

If there was a house price crash due to Islamic terrorism but the other side has no-one left to talk about it because they banned talking about Islamic terrorism, did it really happen?

Do they even have house price crashes when paying interest is banned under Sharia?

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On 2017-6-6 at 18:46, Reebo said:

Personal anecdote. A client is trying to sell their 3 bed semi, at the going rate for the area. Not had one enquiry since putting it up for sale in Feb.

An estate agent down here was telling me that there has been a mad demand for suitable retirement homes - small three beds near the sea - from south east buyers.

I would suggest that they are laying their escape plans.

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