FT: Carney warns cabinet of no-deal Brexit property crash

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, stoobs said:

You voted leave because you thought it would making housing more affordable?

Could you explain the reasoning behind that?

Virtually all our population growth of the last 15 years has been via immigration.

Without sounding like a gameshow host-population pressure equals rent rises

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It's not rocket science maths is it Joe.Yet it's amazing how the Westminster elite were stunned by the result.

People forget what it was like 25-30 years back when I was a primary school kid.

Back then, my friends had stay at home mums (who sometimes worked a few hours a week), and Dad's who worked full time but not in super high paid jobs.

And they generally lived in nice semi-detached houses. Now you need two people earning over the average wage to get the same lifestyle.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, MrXxx said:

I wish this was true SP, but I find them detached and often unable to join the dots, preferring to blame society as a whole and expecting it to be responsible for solving their problems.

As an example, I have a relative who bought their council house at a substantial discount but always complains that their son is a the mercy of BTL landlords as he cannot get a council house!

I was generealizing

With all due respect MrX, I didn't say there was no stupidity in that generation,just that there were a good few who get it.Millions voted for millions of different reasons.

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Virtually all our population growth of the last 15 years has been via immigration.

Without sounding like a gameshow host-population pressure equals rent rises

I read the numbers last night and the figure for population growth is 83%  of it is directly due to immigration which is in reality is absolutely shocking.

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

People forget what it was like 25-30 years back when I was a primary school kid.

Back then, my friends had stay at home mums (who sometimes worked a few hours a week), and Dad's who worked full time but not in super high paid jobs.

And they generally lived in nice semi-detached houses. Now you need two people earning over the average wage to get the same lifestyle.

Absolutely.But you look back at all the Brexit debates and where did you hear one of the politicians talking about the reality most people based their decisions on.

[stoobs]

27 minutes ago, null; said:

I own my home outright, I would be happy to see house prices fall because I (and all of us) will benefit in many other ways from cheaper housing.

I'm in the same position. I hope house prices move to historical levels in comparison to wages.

However as the father of two young boys I'm terrified by the prospect of a return to the regular large-scale European conflicts we had for several hundred years until WW2, and the associated slaughter of our young men at the whim of the ruling elite.

From my perspective, the EU and it's forerunners have achieved unprecedented political stability on this self-destructive continent in spite of the many things that are wrong with the way the EU is run.

On that single issue I voted to Remain. I couldn't find a way to fight my way through the ridiculous campaigns of either Remain or Leave to obtain any truth so just voted in a purely selfish way to protect my boys.

[JFK]

19 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

People forget what it was like 25-30 years back when I was a primary school kid.

Back then, my friends had stay at home mums (who sometimes worked a few hours a week), and Dad's who worked full time but not in super high paid jobs.

And they generally lived in nice semi-detached houses. Now you need two people earning over the average wage to get the same lifestyle.

It's completely detached from reality. Exactly the same for me growing up.

Also, in our street (where terraced houses are going for £200k+, gee thanks Carnage et. al., houses before the last money printing round were £160k, back in the early 2000s you're talking £90k and late 90s prices were £55k .... how about that for fucking price inflation.  A recent listing is a boomer deceased/care home 3 bed semi for ....£310k.  The inside needs an absolute gutting, re-wiring, central heating system, even re-arranging of internal walls due to tiny kitchen, no downstairs bog etc, small bathroom ... yet that's gone SSTC).

The system has pushed 2 people having to work full-time - and it's all been argued before on this site and ToS, the cost of 2 people working full-time, employing someone else to look after your kids, the stress, the reduction in family / personal time (but if you're working the tax credit system, bingo).

It's all fucked up and when it's going to deflate it's going to hurt some people - well fuck them let them get rinsed.

 

 

 

[invalid]

43 minutes ago, stoobs said:

I'm in the same position. I hope house prices move to historical levels in comparison to wages.

However as the father of two young boys I'm terrified by the prospect of a return to the regular large-scale European conflicts we had for several hundred years until WW2, and the associated slaughter of our young men at the whim of the ruling elite.

From my perspective, the EU and it's forerunners have achieved unprecedented political stability on this self-destructive continent in spite of the many things that are wrong with the way the EU is run.

On that single issue I voted to Remain. I couldn't find a way to fight my way through the ridiculous campaigns of either Remain or Leave to obtain any truth so just voted in a purely selfish way to protect my boys.

You gave it some thought and have a sensible reason for voting remain, I respect you for not buying into the hysterics (from both sides) and came to your own independant conclusions (exactly how it should be). There's a debate to be had about if the EU are responsible for stability in Europe, maybe best save that for another time and another thread.

I also respect that you voted for selfish reasons, for what you think would be the best interests for your boys. I did exactly the same, although my view was that it was in their best interests that we left.

The same people that 15 years ago talked with a smile about how much money they had 'made' with house price increases now talk with a concerned face about how will their chidren be able to afford a home.

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, JFK said:

A recent listing is a boomer deceased/care home 3 bed semi for ....£310k.  The inside needs an absolute gutting, re-wiring, central heating system, even re-arranging of internal walls due to tiny kitchen, no downstairs bog etc, small bathroom ... yet that's gone SSTC).

Same here in NI - boomer owned houses that need rewiring, gutting and decorating, new kitchens, damp issues ect....and they're looking 180K....7 times the average wage...for example this came on the market yesterday:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/belfast/detached-type/martinville+park/property/MCQMCQ1057?sort=Date+Added&status[]=For+Sale&sector[]=Residential&offset=20&limit=10

This example actually is in better nick than lots of what comes on, but as you can see it needs completely re-decorated at the very least. And check out the EPC rating in a country where it is cold and rains all the fucking time.

Many of the boomers got their houses cheap, have done no upkeep for 30+ years, and still want a fortune for them.

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, stoobs said:

I'm in the same position. I hope house prices move to historical levels in comparison to wages.

However as the father of two young boys I'm terrified by the prospect of a return to the regular large-scale European conflicts we had for several hundred years until WW2, and the associated slaughter of our young men at the whim of the ruling elite.

From my perspective, the EU and it's forerunners have achieved unprecedented political stability on this self-destructive continent in spite of the many things that are wrong with the way the EU is run.

On that single issue I voted to Remain. I couldn't find a way to fight my way through the ridiculous campaigns of either Remain or Leave to obtain any truth so just voted in a purely selfish way to protect my boys.

They've helped European stability for sure.Whether that would have occurred anyway due to the development of common enemies such as communist Russia and China is a moot point I guess- 'your enemies enemy is your friend'

 

The bit in bold is a perfect example of what I think happened.Outside the Westminster bubble,people voted different ways for a myriad of reasons.

I took the opposite view to you that to protect my kids interests I'd vote out.And that's the beautiful thing about living in a democracy,you'd don't all have to agree.Following your logic,I can't fault your decision to vote Remain.

 

Edit to add,I think the next big wars will be proxy wars between East and West in the Middle East and Africa.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, null; said:

You gave it some thought and have a sensible reason for voting remain, I respect you for not buying into the hysterics (from both sides) and came to your own independant conclusions (exactly how it should be). There's a debate to be had about if the EU are responsible for stability in Europe, maybe best save that for another time and another thread.

I also respect that you voted for selfish reasons, for what you think would be the best interests for your boys. I did exactly the same, although my view was that it was in their best interests that we left.

The same people that 15 years ago talked with a smile about how much money they had 'made' with house price increases now talk with a concerned face about how will their chidren be able to afford a home.

I think calling them 'selfish' reasons is wrong,they were perfectly logical based on stoobs value system.Democracy is about people voting for their best interests in my opinion.

[JFK]

Electoral commission in shocker biased court pwning reveal.

... came out all guns blazing against Leave, refused to do any investigation of the dodgy financial shenanigans of Remain ... looks like they've been caught out

 

https://order-order.com/2018/09/14/full-text-electoral-commissions-high-court-defeat/

[stoobs]

Can I just say what a pleasure it is to debate this issue in a reasonable environment.

I'm well aware I'm in a minority as a Remain voter on this site, but if the wider population (and our elected representatives) could make the same effort to genuinely understand each other's viewpoint we'd live in a much fairer society in or out of the EU.

Particularly in the age of social media we seem to be descending into a world where any attempt at thoughtful debate is immediately drowned out by dog whistle extremism from all sides and we get nowhere.

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, stoobs said:

Can I just say what a pleasure it is to debate this issue in a reasonable environment.

I'm well aware I'm in a minority as a Remain voter on this site, but if the wider population (and our elected representatives) could make the same effort to genuinely understand each other's viewpoint we'd live in a much fairer society in or out of the EU.

Particularly in the age of social media we seem to be descending into a world where any attempt at thoughtful debate is immediately drowned out by dog whistle extremism from all sides and we get nowhere.

[goldbug9999]

6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Now you need two people earning over the average wage to get the same lifestyle.

"over" ? - to get  a nice semi in any decent part of the UK your going to need two people earning 50-60K i.e. more than double the average salary.

[Green Devil]

I voted leave because I was promised a house price crash by Cameron obscene and the cunt at the BOE.  Instead we got a boom and a 20% rise in prices.

Next time I'll vote leave again because that's what they don't want me to do so I'll do it.

[Bricks & Mortar]

50 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

I voted leave because I was promised a house price crash

And that's what's so utterly hilarious about this while thing.  You had a snifter, in the Scottish referendum.  I maintain the threats of big banks relocating and house price crash brought many votes to the indy side.  But afterward, the analysis was oil, and currency.

So they doubled down in the brexit vote. - And it backfired spetacularly.  All the threats and scaremongering - and the voters went; if this is what you built, let's burn it to the ground!

[georgist]

25 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

And that's what's so utterly hilarious about this while thing.  You had a snifter, in the Scottish referendum.  I maintain the threats of big banks relocating and house price crash brought many votes to the indy side.  But afterward, the analysis was oil, and currency.

So they doubled down in the brexit vote. - And it backfired spetacularly.  All the threats and scaremongering - and the voters went; if this is what you built, let's burn it to the ground!

I agree that the Scottish vote was interesting. My view on this is that Cameron used the press / establishment to scare enough voters to carry the vote. This emboldened him to try the same with Brexit. However the establishment/press were divided on Brexit and he couldn't get the necessary momentum to affect the vote.

[Band]

27 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

No, he is talking reality.

The property bubble HAS been everywhere in the UK - but it no longer exists in many places North of Watford.

You dozy Southern cunts can live in cloud fucking cuckoo land all you want - up North, it's dead and fucking buried...

 

XYY

I'm ooop North ... but for example in Whitley Bay which i know is like Beverley fucken Hills to you smoggy's and monkey shaggers  .... the cheapest 3 bed semi on the market that is not an ex council house is advertised at 265k. Thats about 11 times average local salary ...  the cheapest 3 bed council house is around 6 times average salary.

Spike in interest rates would see these prices decimated, the bubble is pretty much everywhere.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1446&maxBedrooms=3&minBedrooms=3&maxPrice=400000&minPrice=100000&sortType=1&propertyTypes=semi-detached&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=semidetachedhouses&includeSSTC=false

Or are you claiming QE and ZIRP have not affected house prices ooop North and they're shielded from state intervention to stop the debt/property bubble imploding.

[Band]

31 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

 

I am claiming nothing other than you are talking shite.

And your post above proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that I am correct...

 

XYY

 

You are claiming there is no housing bubble north of Watford. 

Can you list these places that have not been affected by ZIRP QE, TFS, FFL, BTL etc..

And if showing that 11 times salary in a slightly better part of the Newcastle area for a 80 year old 3 bed semi proves there is no housing bubble in your mind then so be it.

[Band]

Just now, The XYY Man said:

I am stating as a fact that there are thousands of houses for sale at pre-2000 prices in the North-East while you are talking bollocks.

Private "landlord" or Estate Agent - which are you...?

 

XYY

Provide a link ......

 

So i can leverage up and buy me a load then when interest rates spike and the BoE can no longer print theyll no doubt go up in price.

 

[Band]

7 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

I will provide you with nowt but common-sense, wisdom, and experience.

You can take care of the rest yourself, you people-farming cunt...

 

XYY

When you going to provide me with these?

Unless the house is falling down and in disrepair i'd be willing to bet you could not provide 1 house that is cheaper in 2018 than in 1999 even in the worst parts of monkey shagger land.

But even if such a place did exist, were QE to be reversed and interest rates rise the price of such a house would fall in value.

[Band]

Just now, The XYY Man said:

I am not going to provide you with fuck-all.

You already leech enough from society as it is you filthy bastard...

 

XYY

Yes i will be stealing a living from Monday when ive to climb up and down 30 metre vertical ladders at a power plant looking at bits of metal, so as to help to keep the leccy on in your house so you can spend the day giving yourself a Tommy the tank whilst watching youmonkeyporn.com.

Still now i know i can buy houses at pre Gordon Brown prices in Hartlepool, reckon i ought to pack in the day job.

[MrXxx]

7 hours ago, Green Devil said:

I voted leave because I was promised a house price crash by Cameron obscene and the cunt at the BOE.  Instead we got a boom and a 20% rise in prices.

Next time I'll vote leave again because that's what they don't want me to do so I'll do it.

Well, there's your first mistake...voting leave?...no, believing politicians promises! :-)

[MrXxx]

2 hours ago, The XYY Man said:

No, he is talking reality.

The property bubble HAS been everywhere in the UK - but it no longer exists in many places North of Watford.

You dozy Southern cunts can live in cloud fucking cuckoo land all you want - up North, it's dead and fucking buried...

 

XYY

But down South we like to do our toilet in the house, not in the garden! :-)...in all seriousness though, I think it's easy to think that there is a boom in the North, but it's only in pockets like the major cities I.e.Manchester, outside these or where the industry has become non-existent prices are low.