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FT: Carney warns cabinet of no-deal Brexit property crash


georgist

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25 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Is it my imagination or has the antiBrexit media been majorly ramped up in the last few days...everywhere I look the are spouting Armageddon!

You're not wrong, I'm sick of hearing it.  I voted leave but was never/still not convinced it will happen.   An economic shitstorm is coming whether we leave or not.  I'm now half hoping we stay just so they can't blame everything on Brexit.  Long term though I still think we're better off out.  I say that as a youngish homeowner.

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Professor spy has entered this forum.

Markets have 2 components -  price and transactions.

The number of trabsaction in the North - and South - has fallen like a brick. Seriusly, places are seeing sales at 20% of the number youd expect.

In the north - and you can check this on right moves market info sevtion - prices went up til 2004 and have been stuck trading at the same price level.

Whats happened is OO were priced out 2002ish and were replaced by btlers who are now royally fucked. Most io btler of 2+ houses will end up bankrupt.

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1 hour ago, The XYY Man said:

:)

You've got me all wrong mate.

I work full-time, and enjoy a salary that is just under thirty-nine grand a year.

I left school at 16, and have had a cumulative total of two years on the dole - the majority of which was around 1984/85. I am now 53.

I am currently renting, but have been the mortgage payer for two houses in my lifetime. I was also approved for a mortgage last year, but pulled out of the purchase for personal reasons.

So, what have I - in my drunken state last night - got wrong about you...?

You seem to want high house prices, and are denying that they are dropping like a prozzie's panties round here. Are you are private "landlord"...?

Go on admit it - I got that bit right didn't I...?

 

XYY

I don't think he's arguing they are still too high to assist sentiment. He's complaining they are still too high for wages. I agree, but I also agree it's not as bad up north, however places like Manchester, Leeds, York etc are very high.

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Professor spy has entered this forum.

Markets have 2 components -  price and transactions.

The number of trabsaction in the North - and South - has fallen like a brick. Seriusly, places are seeing sales at 20% of the number youd expect.

In the north - and you can check this on right moves market info sevtion - prices went up til 2004 and have been stuck trading at the same price level.

Whats happened is OO were priced out 2002ish and were replaced by btlers who are now royally fucked. Most io btler of 2+ houses will end up bankrupt.

Good post. The 1997 to 2004 rise was significant, therefore retaining 2004 prices is still too high. Life in 1997 was way, way better than 2004.

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53 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

:)

You've got me all wrong mate.

I work full-time, and enjoy a salary that is just under thirty-nine grand a year.

I left school at 16, and have had a cumulative total of two years on the dole - the majority of which was around 1984/85. I am now 53.

I am currently renting, but have been the mortgage payer for two houses in my lifetime. I was also approved for a mortgage last year, but pulled out of the purchase for personal reasons.

So, what have I - in my drunken state last night - got wrong about you...?

You seem to want high house prices, and are denying that they are dropping like a prozzie's panties round here. Are you are private "landlord"...?

Go on admit it - I got that bit right didn't I...?

 

XYY

Come on i bet you've nipped into the bog during work hours for a right hand shandy over Playmonkey

Unfortunately i was daft enough to think there was going to be a house price in 2003 when i was living down south  as prices were insane and had more than doubled in the previous 5 years ... then when i was about to buy late 2013 early 2014 prices went through the roof in the area i was looking due to HTB/FFL and i missed the boat. So sadly i'm more likely to be Roger the Lodger than a pioneering BTLer. 

It does seem that prices in Smoggyland and its surrounds haven't gone up too much if at all in the last decade but what happened in the decade prior certainly makes up for that, but they have plenty of room to crash in price if/when interest rates spike. 

You were up early drinking, hangover must be a killer, i've got one from drinking Shandy last night ... whats become of me!

 

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UnconventionalWisdom
16 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Whats happened is OO were priced out 2002ish and were replaced by btlers who are now royally fucked. Most io btler of 2+ houses will end up bankrupt.

I really hope you are right! 

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15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Professor spy has entered this forum.

Markets have 2 components -  price and transactions.

The number of trabsaction in the North - and South - has fallen like a brick. Seriusly, places are seeing sales at 20% of the number youd expect.

In the north - and you can check this on right moves market info sevtion - prices went up til 2004 and have been stuck trading at the same price level.

 Whats happened is OO were priced out 2002ish and were replaced by btlers who are now royally fucked. Most io btler of 2+ houses will end up bankrupt.

Places in the above average (jobs wise) parts of the North have gone up in the last few years.

 

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29 minutes ago, Banned said:

Places in the above average (jobs wise) parts of the North have gone up in the last few years.

 

Dont make the mistake in thinking the South is still ahead of the North.

1987- 2008 saw most of the  Southern jobs becoming a purely fin services play.

In 2000 id go to southern towns where employment was nhs or 2-3 fin services comps. These have all gone  or laid off 70%. Its amazing.

South is  getting hammered by MMR.

Only town thats not seen the jobs go is bmouth which has a large back office of the only us bank that did not fuck up - luck rather than judgement.

Uk mort aprovs

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

Set that to max.

Most of the post 2002 will be btl or io. Most london se. All being forced to sell up now.

My biggest local town is scarborough. Sales are overwhelmed by probates, 

 

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maybe they were day trippers down from hartlepool and werent going to get caught out again by those dastrardly french bastards throwing their poop at them.

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