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wherebee

The great crash sweepstake

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Right - it's coming, I know it's coming, you know it's coming, and every fucker knows it's coming.  The Next Big Kahuna - the follow on from the GFC.

 

I thought it might be a bit of fun to sweepstake dates for the next HHFC (Huge horrible financial crisis).  As the dates are a bit vague with these things (some say the GFC was Lehmans, some say the day of the bail out by the US gvt), lets go for the MONTH where we will see:

  • bail out/taking over of more than one major bank by the US, UK, or German gvt
  • A headline in the NYT saying 'CRASH"

 

I'm going for June 2020.

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4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Right - it's coming, I know it's coming, you know it's coming, and every fucker knows it's coming.  The Next Big Kahuna - the follow on from the GFC.

 

I thought it might be a bit of fun to sweepstake dates for the next HHFC (Huge horrible financial crisis).  As the dates are a bit vague with these things (some say the GFC was Lehmans, some say the day of the bail out by the US gvt), lets go for the MONTH where we will see:

  • bail out/taking over of more than one major bank by the US, UK, or German gvt
  • A headline in the NYT saying 'CRASH"

 

I'm going for June 2020.

The timing will be critical, will June precede Trump 2020 sufficiently for the desired effect to be seen at the polls?

Edited by Hopeful

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5 minutes ago, Lone Lurker said:

March 29th 2019, Blame Brexit xD

I was going to blame Brexit, and that'll be about when it starts proper, but at the start it'll be dismissed as a local effect.

So, I'll say something like:

Foundations laid properly now, baked in.

It'll actually start happening April 19, but they'll think/say it is contained / restricted in size

The actual stuff will be bad and obviously happening (with headlines in papers) Oct 19.

I'd say the 'bank takeover/collapse' might be about July 19, but I don't think it'll play out that way next time -- IMO the action will be with the countries, not the banks, so by that reckoning the sign will be a 'normal' country's bonds spiking over 10%.

[The banks were bailed out by countries.  But banks aren't nice -- so when the countries are hammered they'll go to the banks and say 'help us please' and the banks will say 'your problem, mate']

Edited by dgul

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Next money related upset is unlikely to be in western  finance sector.

One, banks have shrunk.

Two, banks are not trading on their account or complex cross border entities. Regulated banks are going back to their domestic country. No regulator wants a big, trading foriegn bank in their country.

China another story.

 

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5 minutes ago, dgul said:

I was going to blame Brexit, and that'll be about when it starts proper, but at the start it'll be dismissed as a local effect.

So, I'll say something like:

Foundations laid properly now, baked in.

It'll actually start happening April 19, but they'll think/say it is contained / restricted in size

The actual stuff will be bad and obviously happening (with headlines in papers) Oct 19.

I'd say the 'bank takeover/collapse' might be about July 19, but I don't think it'll play out that way next time -- IMO the action will be with the countries, not the banks, so by that reckoning the sign will be a 'normal' country's bonds spiking over 10%.

[The banks were bailed out by countries.  But banks aren't nice -- so when the countries are hammered they'll go to the banks and say 'help us please' and the banks will say 'your problem, mate']

Uk next buggy is redolution of a bust bank.

Itll be nationwide and conventry BS.

Itll be brutal for employees and borrowers. Non event for everyone else.

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45 minutes ago, dgul said:

I was going to blame Brexit, and that'll be about when it starts proper, but at the start it'll be dismissed as a local effect.

So, I'll say something like:

Foundations laid properly now, baked in.

It'll actually start happening April 19, but they'll think/say it is contained / restricted in size

The actual stuff will be bad and obviously happening (with headlines in papers) Oct 19.

I'd say the 'bank takeover/collapse' might be about July 19, but I don't think it'll play out that way next time -- IMO the action will be with the countries, not the banks, so by that reckoning the sign will be a 'normal' country's bonds spiking over 10%.

[The banks were bailed out by countries.  But banks aren't nice -- so when the countries are hammered they'll go to the banks and say 'help us please' and the banks will say 'your problem, mate']

This is what I posted on DBs thread yesterday, so as not to have the same dates I'll push back a month and say starting from May 2019 but come forward a month on your prediction for when it really gets going, so headlines in Sept 2019.

As for banks collapsing - I'll say never.

Quote

 

I'm starting to think that from around April next year things will get started and thats when the pressure will start on BOE and the government to take action. The trigger being the one fundamental thing that seems to be changing significantly - energy costs. No crystal ball and I'm no expert so just my guesses, but I'll give my reasons:

- Energy prices are high (Gas and Oil), unless they drop considerably, this will be a big inflationary pressure that will be feeding through the system and in full force

- A big unknown - a cold prolonged winter will put pressure on energy costs and also reduce consumers spare cash - a mild warm winter having the opposite effect

- Weak pound and strong dollar - extra downward pressure on the pound from Brexit and the dollar getting boosted by Trumps policies

- BOE forced to make a rate rise due to rising inflation

- Consumers maxed out and unwilling/unable to take further credit

- Businesses holding back investment until Brexit outcome known

- Continued stagnant wages, especially for the lower paid

 

I can't stress enough this is just my uneducated guess but thought I would share my thoughts, happy for them to be picked apart.

 

 

 

I'll add one more comment, don't under estimate UKgovs ability to keep the plates spinning. Despite my prediction above, I would also not be surprised if nothing much changes for another 5-10 years.

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Hey, even the Daily Mail are taking part with their entry today (have they been reading dosbods?):

Experts warn the next recession will be 'worse than the Great Depression' and predict it will hit US within two years as $247trillion global debt outdoes 2008

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6198007/Experts-warn-recession-hit-two-years-worse-Great-Depression.html

 

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As @spygirlsays, this time round it will be nothing really to do with Western banks. It’s all about China.

The malinvestment by Chinese entities, especially in this part of the world, is breathtaking. Investments with no possible means of economic return, many with aims stated as such, with aims of soft power, influence and control, rather than return, litter the landscape.

Much of what is being and has been built will literally be torn down in years to come without so much as a soul living or working in them.

As to the effect of China having to unwind its holdings of US Treasuries and other assets in order to support this collapse, with be something to behold. The effect on spending will be depressing indeed.

An example, Chinese investment and spending in Cambodia currently represents something like 60% of GDP. Imagine that!

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2 minutes ago, Bkkandrew said:

As @spygirlsays, this time round it will be nothing really to do with Western banks. It’s all about China.

The malinvestment by Chinese entities, especially in this part of the world, is breathtaking. Investments with no possible means of economic return, many with aims stated as such, with aims of soft power, influence and control, rather than return, litter the landscape.

Much of what is being and has been built will literally be torn down in years to come without so much as a soul living or working in them.

As to the effect of China having to unwind its holdings of US Treasuries and other assets in order to support this collapse, with be something to behold. The effect on spending will be depressing indeed.

An example, Chinese investment and spending in Cambodia currently represents something like 60% of GDP. Imagine that!

All Chinese investmented is subject to the highest levels of party scrutiny, applying scierntific socialism principles to public infrastructure.

The allegation that a single penny is pissed away like a sailor on shore leave is unthinkable....

 

 

4 minutes ago, Bkkandrew said:

As @spygirlsays, this time round it will be nothing really to do with Western banks. It’s all about China.

The malinvestment by Chinese entities, especially in this part of the world, is breathtaking. Investments with no possible means of economic return, many with aims stated as such, with aims of soft power, influence and control, rather than return, litter the landscape.

Much of what is being and has been built will literally be torn down in years to come without so much as a soul living or working in them.

As to the effect of China having to unwind its holdings of US Treasuries and other assets in order to support this collapse, with be something to behold. The effect on spending will be depressing indeed.

An example, Chinese investment and spending in Cambodia currently represents something like 60% of GDP. Imagine that!

In your part of the world i.e not China, its the most expensive (for local tax payers) and most lucrative ( for bent pols bribes).

China is out selling crap infrastructure projects  and huge future costs.

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18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

All Chinese investmented is subject to the highest levels of party scrutiny, applying scierntific socialism principles to public infrastructure.

The allegation that a single penny is pissed away like a sailor on shore leave is unthinkable....

 

 

I wonder when the occupants switch their dehumidifiers on?.

Seriously, would you want to live/work on the other side of that?.

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1 minute ago, Kilham said:

I wonder when the occupants switch their dehumidifiers on?.

Seriously, would you want to live/work on the other side of that?.

Fuck those.

Would you want to be providing the loan....

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1 minute ago, spygirl said:

Fuck those.

Would you want to be providing the loan....

We used to have the skyscraper index that noted the correlation between tallest buildings and the exuberance that preceded a crash. Now we have the waterfall index.

It's impossible to know what could happen in China as all the data is under state control. They're desperate to keep the miracle going, I guess dodgy loans are easier than tanks on the street, for now.

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10 minutes ago, The Generation Game said:

These things always take much longer than they should. September 2024

Possibly, but IMO the 'should' was the blip around 2015.

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The current world monetary order came into existence in the period 1971-73 as a result of the Nixon shock

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shrather

My guess is now as then  politics will be as important as economics over what happens. And as others have observed it is Chinese debt and the impact of Trump tariffs on  Chinese trade where the big danger lies.Particularly if China stops spending money on skyscrapers and starts spending it on weapons and in  particular its navy.

With regard to markets we are a bit late for the usual pre recession September or October market  shakedown this year but it is still possible I suppose late October 2018.

 

Edited by Virgil Caine

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2 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

The current world monetary order came into existence in the period 1971-73 as a result of the Nixon shock

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shrather

My guess is now as then  politics will be as important as economics over what happens. And as others have observed it is Chinese debt and the impact of Trump tariffs on  Chinese trade where the big danger lies.Particularly if China stops spending money on skyscrapers and starts spending it on weapons and in  particular its navy.

With regard to markets we are a bit late for the usual pre recession September or October market  shakedown this year but it is still possible I suppose late October 2018.

 

Nope.

Vietnam. That was jfks fuckup.

Nicon was tge poor sap the shut landed on.

I split modern life into after ww2, after bretton woods, after 2008.

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5 hours ago, dgul said:

[The banks were bailed out by countries.  But banks aren't nice -- so when the countries are hammered they'll go to the banks and say 'help us please' and the banks will say 'your problem, mate']

Already happening. Spanish Government went to banks like Sabadell and said remember how we bailed you out, and now you've had years to recover yourself, well now we'd like to tax you more.

Sabadell not happy. 2 fingers to Spanish Government. "We'll avoid your tax increase by acquiring banks outside Spain. In fact we found a great one in UK called TSB. What could possibly go wrong nya nya!"

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em.aug 2020....it will be caused by trump wanting to fuck someone like himself so its going to be sarah palin in the oval office wearing his wig bent over a desk,i better buy more beans.

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5 hours ago, Kilham said:

We used to have the skyscraper index that noted the correlation between tallest buildings and the exuberance that preceded a crash. Now we have the waterfall index.

It's impossible to know what could happen in China as all the data is under state control. They're desperate to keep the miracle going, I guess dodgy loans are easier than tanks on the street, for now.

It is interesting that the modern world likes to build these temples to money and that they get bigger as our belief in the monetary system grows to irrational levels.

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