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Sugarlips

The countdown to US$100 Brent crude thread

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Was perusing some graphs and in the short term it looks like the market wants to test the previous oil highs. Are we going to get there and how soon? Consequences seem high..

The £ is materially weaker than the last time we got there (around 2008) and we all know what happened when it peaked.

The msm are already doing panicked stories of petrol now passing £1.40 a litre.

 

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35 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Was perusing some graphs and in the short term it looks like the market wants to test the previous oil highs. Are we going to get there and how soon? Consequences seem high..

The £ is materially weaker than the last time we got there (around 2008) and we all know what happened when it peaked.

The msm are already doing panicked stories of petrol now passing £1.40 a litre.

 

FED interest rate rise this week as well.. does that push the $ higher against the £.. 

2.25% although some are saying it could be 2.5% as they look to accelerate interest rate increases.. 

ECB and BOE can’t be far behind.. 

how much further can the U.K. consumer be pushed before they fall over.. 

Edited by macca

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17 minutes ago, macca said:

FED interest rate rise this week as well.. does that push the $ higher against the £.. 

 

Traditionally yes, but Black is white and day is night atm..

Garth over at greaterfool is saying .25 this week then another 3 times in the next 9months. Unless there is any major political or economic changes a continuation of that looks baked in.

the chancellor and that nice Mr Carney are going to be having some ‘chats’ ala “which do you want first, jack rates and blow the consumer up? Or destroy pound shortly followed by jack rates up anyway?”

 

Meanwhile anyone planning long haul travel for 2019 might want to book it soon before the prices jump and/or the return of the air fuel surcharges..

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As I’ve said previously on here, I sold my oil shares back in 2014 at the previous high before the middle east ramped up output. Will be interesting to see if it approaches that point again. Just like any other commodity, the price is controlled.

I’m sure Cattle Prod can offer his view on the inside spin, which is always appreciated.

Edited by Sideysid

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What would be the catalyst for oil going to highs?

(Genuine question not a challenge, I know next to nothing about oil price movements)

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11 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

What would be the catalyst for oil going to highs?

(Genuine question not a challenge, I know next to nothing about oil price movements)

Lots of money looking for somewhere to go.  The market will then invent a plausible reason, geopolitics, supply squeeze, whatever, and everyone will nod wisely at the irrefutable logic.

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20 minutes ago, dgul said:

Lots of money looking for somewhere to go.  The market will then invent a plausible reason, geopolitics, supply squeeze, whatever, and everyone will nod wisely at the irrefutable logic.

Agreed.:Beer:

Interesting that when Oil hit $150 dollars a barrel in 08 it was $2=£1, so effectively £75 a barrel. So at $1.3=£1 and $80 a barrel = £61.5 a barrel. Still a fair way to go in sterling terms...

Saw that OPEC and the Russians told Trump to do one on his request for cheaper oil yesterday, maybe they can see that day of reckoning coming???

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/opec-russia-rebuff-trumps-call-for-immediate-boost-to-oil-output-idUSKCN1M30DK

Ironically even the Frackers in the US don't want a lower price!

Edited by NogintheNog

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12 minutes ago, dgul said:

Lots of money looking for somewhere to go.  The market will then invent a plausible reason, geopolitics, supply squeeze, whatever, and everyone will nod wisely at the irrefutable logic.

Refreshing to think there’s not always a complicated rationale. In that case I’ll go for oil to lows with gold and FAANGs to highs. Same reasoning 🤷🏻‍♂️

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16 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Refreshing to think there’s not always a complicated rationale. In that case I’ll go for oil to lows with gold and FAANGs to highs. Same reasoning 🤷🏻‍♂️

We're in the blow-off top phase -- anything can happen.

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4 hours ago, dgul said:

Lots of money looking for somewhere to go.  The market will then invent a plausible reason, geopolitics, supply squeeze, whatever, and everyone will nod wisely at the irrefutable logic.

The same way the people nodded at the suggestion it "crashed" last year due to US fracking... Have they stopped fracking now then? All a bit strange.

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9 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

The chancellor and that nice Mr Carney are going to be having some ‘chats’ ala “which do you want first, jack rates and blow the consumer up? Or destroy pound shortly followed by jack rates up anyway?”

Philip Hammond won’t want the price of his houses to go down, nor will the Tory front bench.. They will sink every ship before they let house prices collapse.. 

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