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Chewing Grass

Sunspots

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Have noticed that the night time temperatures with clear skies have been significantly lower than predicted by the met-office for the last few days.

Had 3C against a predicted 7C on Monday and 4C against 7C last night and people at work at little higher up than me in elevation had a frost.

I am thinking that the met-offices computer models based on historical observations etc do not accommodate reduced solar activity.

Can't find when the last actual sunspot was recorded by it must be around 100 days ago which is way below the predicted statistical minimum for 2018.

Are we heading for a brutally cold winter, if so is the info being held back so commodities can be bought and money, lots of it made.

565033543_Screenshot-2018-9-25ssn_predict_lgif(GIFImage1024768pixels).thumb.png.9f8be643d42957bf55a1593fd66703d9.png

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

https://watchers.news/space-weather-station/

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"indian summer" on the way according to beeb.

I have often suspected the weather forecasts are "talked up" to try and keep the proles working and upbeat / looking forward to some nice weather etc 

rather than the 9 months of dreary misery. 

Edited by WorkingPoor

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6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Have noticed that the night time temperatures with clear skies have been significantly lower than predicted by the met-office for the last few days.

Had 3C against a predicted 7C on Monday and 4C against 7C last night and people at work at little higher up than me in elevation had a frost.

I am thinking that the met-offices computer models based on historical observations etc do not accommodate reduced solar activity.

Can't find when the last actual sunspot was recorded by it must be around 100 days ago which is way below the predicted statistical minimum for 2018.

Are we heading for a brutally cold winter, if so is the info being held back so commodities can be bought and money, lots of it made.

565033543_Screenshot-2018-9-25ssn_predict_lgif(GIFImage1024768pixels).thumb.png.9f8be643d42957bf55a1593fd66703d9.png

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

https://watchers.news/space-weather-station/

So, rather than global warming, we should all be worried about the death of the sun and the coming ice age?  o.O

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2004 and 2005 had some brutally cold spells in Geneva, at about the same point on the cycle as we are now. I remember an evening where the temperature was about -15C and it was blowing a gale down the lake. A few boats were sunk by the weight of the ice that formed on them, and cars were buried under several feet of ice.  Silly bint I was with at the time wanted to go out, so we did - well it was memorable in more ways than one, at least. 

 

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7 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

cold weather coincided with northerly winds, but yes, think cooling is likely, all our ancestors survived the last ice age, so nothing to worry about

None of my ancestors from that time survived. Fortunately, they all had children before they croaked.

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9 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

so who brought up the children ?

It wasn't a problem as most of the time there was a sufficiently long delay between having the children and croaking.

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

It wasn't a problem as most of the time there was a sufficiently long delay between having the children and croaking.

children of my ancestors are still my ancestors, maybe not in your family

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4 hours ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

2004 and 2005 had some brutally cold spells in Geneva, at about the same point on the cycle as we are now. I remember an evening where the temperature was about -15C and it was blowing a gale down the lake. A few boats were sunk by the weight of the ice that formed on them, and cars were buried under several feet of ice.  Silly bint I was with at the time wanted to go out, so we did - well it was memorable in more ways than one, at least. 

 

Went down to -15c here this year in kent with the Beast From The East.

I'm out in the sticks and the weather is always a good 3 degrees under the coldest temperature and 3 degrees above the warmest. I remember coming across a website where the locations of weather stations were analysed and scrutinised - why are they located near to factories and roads etc and why are they so secretive. 

PS worth also adding the Met Office don't supply bbc weather now, it's Meteogroup IIRC.  

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4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Have noticed that the night time temperatures with clear skies have been significantly lower than predicted by the met-office for the last few days.

Had 3C against a predicted 7C on Monday and 4C against 7C last night and people at work at little higher up than me in elevation had a frost.

I am thinking that the met-offices computer models based on historical observations etc do not accommodate reduced solar activity.

Can't find when the last actual sunspot was recorded by it must be around 100 days ago which is way below the predicted statistical minimum for 2018.

Are we heading for a brutally cold winter, if so is the info being held back so commodities can be bought and money, lots of it made.

565033543_Screenshot-2018-9-25ssn_predict_lgif(GIFImage1024768pixels).thumb.png.9f8be643d42957bf55a1593fd66703d9.png

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

https://watchers.news/space-weather-station/

Ask Jezzas bro.

https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn

Met him a couple of times. Hes tagged himself on to a couple of evening lectures i did the AV for years back. Not always a welcome guest!

I find him way more credible than the marrow grower.

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In related news i've been resealing the french doors tonight with this stuff from Screwfix.

https://www.screwfix.com/p/stormguard-upvc-door-window-seal-white-20m/1883g

I'm fairly sure its made an immediate impact going by tonights feelz.

Would recommend for any double glazed doors. My seals were literally biscuit dry. Just fell off.

Got a new boiler coming and have switched to DD for bigger discounts. Getting my domestic shit together, oh yus.

 

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4 hours ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

2004 and 2005 had some brutally cold spells in Geneva, at about the same point on the cycle as we are now. I remember an evening where the temperature was about -15C and it was blowing a gale down the lake. A few boats were sunk by the weight of the ice that formed on them, and cars were buried under several feet of ice.  Silly bint I was with at the time wanted to go out, so we did - well it was memorable in more ways than one, at least. 

 

Maybe we should get one of those heaters from Argos, and a few big calor gas containers before they sell out in the panic as people catch on?:

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19 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

 

children of my ancestors are still my ancestors, maybe not in your family

Not all of the children of my ancestors are my ancestors.

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19 minutes ago, shindigger said:

Ask Jezzas bro.

https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn

Met him a couple of times. Hes tagged himself on to a couple of evening lectures i did the AV for years back. Not always a welcome guest!

I find him way more credible than the marrow grower.

Piers has always focussed on Solar activity as the core basis of our weather (oh and earthquakes as well)..

And the website is a sight to behold http://www.weatheraction.com/

Edited by eek

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34 minutes ago, shindigger said:

In related news i've been resealing the french doors tonight with this stuff from Screwfix.

https://www.screwfix.com/p/stormguard-upvc-door-window-seal-white-20m/1883g

I'm fairly sure its made an immediate impact going by tonights feelz.

Would recommend for any double glazed doors. My seals were literally biscuit dry. Just fell off.

Got a new boiler coming and have switched to DD for bigger discounts. Getting my domestic shit together, oh yus.

 

That reminds me I need to replace my front door seal. 

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On 25/09/2018 at 17:37, Chewing Grass said:

Have noticed that the night time temperatures with clear skies have been significantly lower than predicted by the met-office for the last few days.

Had 3C against a predicted 7C on Monday and 4C against 7C last night and people at work at little higher up than me in elevation had a frost.

I am thinking that the met-offices computer models based on historical observations etc do not accommodate reduced solar activity.

Can't find when the last actual sunspot was recorded by it must be around 100 days ago which is way below the predicted statistical minimum for 2018.

Are we heading for a brutally cold winter, if so is the info being held back so commodities can be bought and money, lots of it made. 

565033543_Screenshot-2018-9-25ssn_predict_lgif(GIFImage1024768pixels).thumb.png.9f8be643d42957bf55a1593fd66703d9.png

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

https://watchers.news/space-weather-station/

Have just been out for an hour or so from 7pm and it has dropped to between -2C & -2.7C depending how far from the houses you are into the fields.

Met Office forecast +5C for tonight under a clear sky now this is 7C off prediction, everything else is more or less blob on.

As I have observed before their forecasts are completely wrong at night under clear skies which to me infers that their computer models (based on historical norms) are now out of sync with what is going on at the moment.

(First thing this morning it was -3C against a predicted +2C as well).

1029732004_Screenshot-2018-10-29Warringtonweatherforecast.png.6da628ec6b42ecc58cbac5ae4d7724e3.png

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2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Have just been out for an hour or so from 7pm and it has dropped to between -2C & -2.7C depending how far from the houses you are into the fields.

Met Office forecast +5C for tonight under a clear sky now this is 7C off prediction, everything else is more or less blob on.

As I have observed before their forecasts are completely wrong at night under clear skies which to me infers that their computer models (based on historical norms) are now out of sync with what is going on at the moment.

(First thing this morning it was -3C against a predicted +2C as well).

1029732004_Screenshot-2018-10-29Warringtonweatherforecast.png.6da628ec6b42ecc58cbac5ae4d7724e3.png

Where are you?  The met office temperature models assume you're in a town -- if you're in a village or countryside the temperatures will be a bit lower than they say in the forecast.

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On 25/09/2018 at 17:44, One percent said:

So, rather than global warming, we should all be worried about the death of the sun and the coming ice age?  o.O

that would take awhile,however solar flares could realy cause havok if we got a big one in this electronic age.

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1 minute ago, dgul said:

Where are you?  The met office temperature models assume you're in a town -- if you're in a village or countryside the temperatures will be a bit lower than they say in the forecast.

The forecast is for my exact location, the urban heat Island effect (plus the River Mersey) is +2C between the town centre and the outskirts, if I rather conservatively add another 1C thats still 4C out of whack.

I went through one of the large villages on the outskirts and the difference tonight there was 0.3C and back to my place was 0.7C and water on the cycleway was actually commencing to freeze over during the ride.

Measurement device is a bar mounted Garmin and it has been very accurate over its 3 year life to date.

PS. I'm not autistic (honest).

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6 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

that would take awhile,however solar flares could realy cause havok if we got a big one in this electronic age.

I know, I love those books about an EMP from the sun. Fascinating how it would destroy our way of life in a stroke. 

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