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Zanu Bob

'It's going 2008 all over again.....'

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Mate of mine in the builidng trade with several tales of downturns on his travels around the country delivering stuff over the last monhht.

Did one drop on a small site where he'd delivered a month ago and they still had the last lot he'd delivered(apparently his sales team just send it).Says a lot smaller sites are getting mothballed according to him.

Time will tell..

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Hi Zanu Bob, I was living overseas in 2008 .. so whilst I saw some impacts of the GFC I didn't see how it impacted through the building trade here.  What happened last time with the building trade ? Did the cost of materials go up ? down ? cost of labour ? prices round where I am for any kind of building work have pretty much more than doubled since 2008, so what are your thoughts on how it might pan out ?

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We have just rented a new house as our cnut of a Landlord is selling up. In reality the house we are comfortable in will sit on the market for several months becusue the price they want is totally out of kilter with market prices.  Anyway the new place we are taking on the agent told me renting is brisk but sales are dead - literally nothing is selling and this is in a part of Essex (30 mins into Liverool St) where there is a lot of money floating around. 

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12 hours ago, Zanu Bob said:

Mate of mine in the builidng trade with several tales of downturns on his travels around the country delivering stuff over the last monhht.

Did one drop on a small site where he'd delivered a month ago and they still had the last lot he'd delivered(apparently his sales team just send it).Says a lot smaller sites are getting mothballed according to him.

Time will tell..

The last ~5 years have seen loads of brownfield sites and office buildings being knocked down and or convert to crappy flats.

London is ground zero but all other town have building sites everywhere.

Its been occupying the building trades for 4-5 years, keeping them dead busy.

Now all the places are finished but the places are now sitting unsold, bank on developers back, developer not answering phone to buildes factor.

I predict a massive downturn turn in building employment.

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54 minutes ago, Mere mortal said:

Hi Zanu Bob, I was living overseas in 2008 .. so whilst I saw some impacts of the GFC I didn't see how it impacted through the building trade here.  What happened last time with the building trade ? Did the cost of materials go up ? down ? cost of labour ? prices round where I am for any kind of building work have pretty much more than doubled since 2008, so what are your thoughts on how it might pan out ?

For the building jobs I know of costs went right down.  'Official' labour costs stayed high, but companies were willing to do 'deals' to get the work.   Similarly, the book costs of materials remained the same, but loads of sales and offers to shift stock.  I know of one place (private house) that was finished around 2010 that was getting on for 1/2 estimated build cost from when it was planned 2007 (although they were quite aggressive in chasing offers for materials).

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Have been watching a new business park near me that was built between 2010 & 2012 and named Olympic Park and has languished substantially unlet ever since primarily due to them being too small and having only 1 parking space per three 'workers', shit public transport and absolutely no catering facilities within half a mile.

The idiots who built them aided by EU money deserve to go bust.

856469403_Screenshotfrom2018-09-2912-01-51.thumb.png.c184c130ca2ee4df88b098998a5c4c21.png

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4 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Have been watching a new business park near me that was built between 2010 & 2012 and named Olympic Park and has languished substantially unlet ever since primarily due to them being too small and having only 1 parking space per three 'workers', shit public transport and absolutely no catering facilities within half a mile.

The idiots who built them aided by EU money deserve to go bust.

856469403_Screenshotfrom2018-09-2912-01-51.thumb.png.c184c130ca2ee4df88b098998a5c4c21.png

If you have a company that requires anything above Maths and English pass at GCSE then you need to be near a public transport hub.

The old 40m max commute time limit is shrinking down to about 30mile radius.

Most large towns tend to be ~20miles apart - old animal transport for markets.

Wages are going to explode due to the fuckups of tax credits and high housing. Throw in defined benefits pensions meaning theres nothing keeping people at companies.

 

 

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oh Kurt Barlow it's tough when a landlord forces you to move... expect it will it on the market a long time too... hope you settle in your new place

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

 

Now all the places are finished but the places are now sitting unsold, bank on developers back, developer not answering phone to buildes factor.

 

I have been on funding circle for years and you can see it with the builders that raised funds on there. Plenty are refinancing or delay repayments while they try to sell off plots or finished property

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2 hours ago, Kurt Barlow said:

We have just rented a new house as our cnut of a Landlord is selling up. In reality the house we are comfortable in will sit on the market for several months becusue the price they want is totally out of kilter with market prices.  Anyway the new place we are taking on the agent told me renting is brisk but sales are dead - literally nothing is selling and this is in a part of Essex (30 mins into Liverool St) where there is a lot of remortgaging over priced houses thus using the property as a cash machine money floating around. 

Fixed it for you.

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Have been watching a new business park near me that was built between 2010 & 2012 and named Olympic Park and has languished substantially unlet ever since primarily due to them being too small and having only 1 parking space per three 'workers', shit public transport and absolutely no catering facilities within half a mile.

The idiots who built them aided by EU money deserve to go bust.

856469403_Screenshotfrom2018-09-2912-01-51.thumb.png.c184c130ca2ee4df88b098998a5c4c21.png

This the one near Warrington?

Had clients there for a few years, car park was always rammed to the point there'd be cars 3 deep down the middle. They got shut down in the end by the FCA.

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7 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

This the one near Warrington?

Had clients there for a few years, car park was always rammed to the point there'd be cars 3 deep down the middle. They got shut down in the end by the FCA.

Yeah, the other side of the roundabout from Cinnaminge Park which has cars littered all over the grass verges.

Like how it says To Let with Ample Parking, don't know how they work that out but the the landlord and letting agents are lying cunts.

1857634985_Screenshotfrom2018-09-2913-51-55.thumb.png.36a3cb1a9ccd94ad56d28d206b46901b.png

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2 hours ago, Mere mortal said:

oh Kurt Barlow it's tough when a landlord forces you to move... expect it will it on the market a long time too... hope you settle in your new place

Cheers

Fortunately we found a new place. a little bit smaller but has a garage and a conservatory, one council tax band lower. is nearer to the station and 100 quid a month less. 

One down side and fairly typical of a scumlord it hasnt got a back gate and we asked for one primarily out of concern for our 3 year old but also security. The landlord has refused and is effectively  expecting us to pay for one (ie improve his property)  and I will - except it will be made out of old piece of OSR board from my dads garage and some spare salvaged iron mongery. When we go it goes with us. :)

Edited by Kurt Barlow
addition

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1 hour ago, Banned said:

Fixed it for you.

Fair point - I actually said something similar to Mrs B last night about the effect of TOWIE meaning that all the locals competing with each other to demonstrate how flash they are. 

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3 hours ago, Mere mortal said:

oh Kurt Barlow it's tough when a landlord forces you to move... expect it will it on the market a long time too... hope you settle in your new place

And it's a fucking stupid landlord to boot.  Why not say 'If you want to stay on at a sharply reduced rent, that would be fine as long as we agree the notice period decreases to a month on either side"

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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

And it's a fucking stupid landlord to boot.  Why not say 'If you want to stay on at a sharply reduced rent, that would be fine as long as we agree the notice period decreases to a month on either side"

Probabl;y works well if you havent got kids. In our case I would have preferred to agree a longer notice period - say 3 months and in return I'm happy to permit viewings. 

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Small builders round here - single house build, extension type work still booked up round here and charging premium rates, 6-9 months before having any chance of a commitment, so have bitten the bullet and decided to start groundworks and all the other small stuff myself, but with a mind to checking rates in 6 months or so for the major part of the extension build, if I have to suck high rates and delays at least it will be for a minimal amount of work.  

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11 hours ago, Mere mortal said:

Hi Zanu Bob, I was living overseas in 2008 .. so whilst I saw some impacts of the GFC I didn't see how it impacted through the building trade here.  What happened last time with the building trade ? Did the cost of materials go up ? down ? cost of labour ? prices round where I am for any kind of building work have pretty much more than doubled since 2008, so what are your thoughts on how it might pan out ?

I'm a pro doom monger of long standing.No idea on the builidng trade back then as my mate was white van driving for £12 an hour before he got mullered by the EU.

He's jsut saying what hes seeing.Was telling me about some washing machine place where they got rid of a load of drivers because so few people are ordering white gooods.

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

The last ~5 years have seen loads of brownfield sites and office buildings being knocked down and or convert to crappy flats.

London is ground zero but all other town have building sites everywhere.

Its been occupying the building trades for 4-5 years, keeping them dead busy.

Now all the places are finished but the places are now sitting unsold, bank on developers back, developer not answering phone to buildes factor.

I predict a massive downturn turn in building employment.

Transactions are low,and on the floor in the smoke.Nowhere to go if noones buying.Soundsas if the small building plots are ground zero at the mo.Big builders still ordering apparently.

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10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Have been watching a new business park near me that was built between 2010 & 2012 and named Olympic Park and has languished substantially unlet ever since primarily due to them being too small and having only 1 parking space per three 'workers', shit public transport and absolutely no catering facilities within half a mile.

The idiots who built them aided by EU money deserve to go bust.

856469403_Screenshotfrom2018-09-2912-01-51.thumb.png.c184c130ca2ee4df88b098998a5c4c21.png

Imporessive effort.3 paking spots per worker.Very genereous of them

5 hours ago, onlyme said:

Small builders round here - single house build, extension type work still booked up round here and charging premium rates, 6-9 months before having any chance of a commitment, so have bitten the bullet and decided to start groundworks and all the other small stuff myself, but with a mind to checking rates in 6 months or so for the major part of the extension build, if I have to suck high rates and delays at least it will be for a minimal amount of work.  

The old biddies will alaways have lots of cash.Theyre the last to see the recession.best people to work for.

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1 hour ago, Zanu Bob said:

He's jsut saying what hes seeing.Was telling me about some washing machine place where they got rid of a load of drivers because so few people are ordering white gooods.

Transactions are low,and on the floor in the smoke.Nowhere to go if noones buying.Soundsas if the small building plots are ground zero at the mo.Big builders still ordering apparently.

Re: white goods, I was watching that Martin Lewis show (cos there was nothing else on obviously) and the breaks were rammed with “get this Hoover 8kg washer for under 250 quid” type ads, not sure how good they are but geez this stuff is cheap these days ..yet still no demand 

#tappedout

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2 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Re: white goods, I was watching that Martin Lewis show (cos there was nothing else on obviously) and the breaks were rammed with “get this Hoover 8kg washer for under 250 quid” type ads, not sure how good they are but geez this stuff is cheap these days ..yet still no demand 

#tappedout

Not as cheap as Facebook adds where you can get decent white goods second hand for £30.Just got freezer number 3 yesterday (stocked up nearly within one day with 75% off yellow label food).I cant understand why anyone buys anything new these days the amount of stuff second hand local.We got everything for the grandchildren (pushchairs,cot,car seats etc etc) for under £120 the lot,most used a couple of times by boomer grandparents.Best thing i ever bought was my £800 van 3 years ago for picking everything up in.Its amazing the difference on 20 years ago.Back then you would be hard pushed to find anything 2nd hand as people passed them on to family members etc and things werent really ever changed unless they were broke.Roll forward and tax credits seem to of seen to things where when granny dies they happy to get £100 of someone and they can empty the house and have the lot.

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1 minute ago, Sugarlips said:

What van did you get dB?

An ex Post Office Fiat.Its only a 1.3 and tatty around the edges,but been a great buy.Iv spent £210 in 3 years keeping it on the road,a few tyres,new battery,welded one sill so up to today including buying it its cost me £6 a week :D,i might get another good few years out of it yet.Love having a little van.Iv still got a 13 year old Peugeot 2.0l diesel car as well,but that hardly gets used.

As for builders,the new estate near me has houses up for sale 2nd hand now much lower than the builder is trying to flog the last third of the estate being built.Remove HTB and i doubt anything would be moving.

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Mates swear by buying ex BT fleet vans, if you know where to look I’m told you can pick up a tidy transit or similar for pennies and they’re well cared for. 

All the Royal Mail Corsa’s I’ve seen recently look well tatty - postman pat would be horrified but 800 quid, can’t go wrong, but you get tapped for helping move stuff for others all the time though :)

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Just now, Sugarlips said:

Mates swear by buying ex BT fleet vans, if you know where to look I’m told you can pick up a tidy transit or similar for pennies and they’re well cared for. 

All the Royal Mail Corsa’s I’ve seen recently look well tatty - postman pat would be horrified but 800 quid, can’t go wrong, but you get tapped for helping move stuff for others all the time though :)

Funny thing with Post Office vans is they are tatty but tend to have low miles.Posties dont actually drive far mostly,park up do a few streets etc.Mine had 60k genuine when i got it.Like you say BT vans would be great buys.Pretty much just carried light items and the Openreach blokes bait box.I like vans as they have very little on them so less to go wrong.

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