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Fischer

DOW down over 3%

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35 minutes ago, Fischer said:

Nasdaq down over 4%.

Mid October is when crashes normally happen.

Would dent the Republican's vote in the mid-terms if there's a crash.

It could equally be seen as the market reaction to the Democrats looking like they could take the House -- I you want a market crash to hit the party in power you arrange it in yr 3 of 4 (ie, long enough in power to not be able to blame the previous incumbent, too long before the elections to blame the risk of the next guys mucking up the economy).

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I have this concern that there are just too many people waiting for a crash -- I think there's a good chance that there's currently a load of shorts opening right now -- ie sell orders, with the intention to cover the short (buy) in a four week timescale.  I think there's a real risk there's a pile of eager shorts about to get burnt.

[it will collapse at some point, but I'm not sure it's this October]

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10 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Might be the vuying opportunity for the next rally. Or it could drop like a stone tomorrow. I do not have a clue.

No rush though, it will take a lot of buying power and time to heal these falls.

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Only eight closes below current levels between 20 March and 5 April in 2018, never got this low in 2017. Just the warm up act if we get political uncertainty, probably even lower if it is deemed McDonnell has a sniff of a chance of taking charge.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The Fed interest rate has been going up steadily for nearly 3 years now so I suppose it's getting nearer to the point where the Dow might behave normally with ups and downs.

Of course in Britain apart from made up and dodgy statistics the economy is still moribund, stagnant and putrid with the base interest rate still on the floor and extraordinarily static and lifeless but for sure the main UK stock indices won't escape a collapse in the US.

Edited by twocents

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27 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Only eight closes below current levels between 20 March and 5 April in 2018, never got this low in 2017. Just the warm up act if we get political uncertainty, probably even lower if it is deemed McDonnell has a sniff of a chance of taking charge.

When you say 'if' do you mean domestically or international?

Larger than usual risk of both at present but its primarily the US/China trade war as well as the bond prices that are driving this rout at present

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1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

When you say 'if' do you mean domestically or international?

Larger than usual risk of both at present but its primarily the US/China trade war as well as the bond prices that are driving this rout at present

Well for my portfolio, which is domestically focused, I'd say domestic politics are a bigger risk than what happens globally, but indeed both.

Looking on the bright side 2018 has followed an identical course to 2017 so far....a spring crash, a May peak, a St Leger rally followed by a swift correction. The final run in was a Santa rally.

At least it's Hargreaves dividend  purchase day today with four pending orders, so they will be coming in a bit cheaper. Meanwhile investment trusts behaving like bonds and holding up through this so I tend to buck the Market on crashes but do crap in a Bull Market.

Edited by crashmonitor

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5 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

When you say 'if' do you mean domestically or international?

Larger than usual risk of both at present but its primarily the US/China trade war as well as the bond prices that are driving this rout at present

I think US interest rates are the main factor.

Asset prices have been sustained by dirt cheap credit.

That era may finally be over.

 

Edited by Virgil Caine

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tw. down about 4% .ive resisted the urge to taunt them on the lse website.i spent 2 years telling them a crash was comeing and it never did.i will wait until they are a quid a share and then reapear and say i told you so.

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53 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

tw. down about 4% .ive resisted the urge to taunt them on the lse website.i spent 2 years telling them a crash was comeing and it never did.i will wait until they are a quid a share and then reapear and say i told you so.

patience grass hopper, patience:

image.png.184533ec53ff9e6250b0addf5949d927.png

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On 11/10/2018 at 08:51, crashmonitor said:

Ftse 100 in official correction territory as I post....7053/ 7877...minus 10.5%

These are small percentages, but I think a shit storm is coming. Luckily I am very poor and don't give a shit.

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22 hours ago, leonardratso said:

patience grass hopper, patience:

image.png.184533ec53ff9e6250b0addf5949d927.png

they wont go bancrupt and once the crash happens im going to buy more,in hindsite i promised myself id sell if they ever hit 2 quid sadly i didnt got greedy lol.they were the first shares i ever bought and are certificated i knew nothing then about online dealing.ive only got a 1000 and they cost me 32p each.the divis since mean they are free.i think next years divis will be around 13p a share so its been a good investment

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Speaking to others online about investing opportunities, there's not a lot around in 2018. Bitcoin had it's crash at the start of the year, and has not made any headway. If this is the year for a big crash, this could be it.

Beneath is a little weekly chart for comparison of 1987 (a memorable crash in history) and now, with a 50 week moving average for a frame of reference. The times to be in the market can be generally seen when the moving average is moving upwards and the indice action is above it. I have chosen this average because it fits the chart generally well, and still gives options that a crash is not a forgone conclusion at this point in time.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.974d8c62693d390def8563155eae676d.jpg

 

Source

Edited by 201p

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30 minutes ago, 201p said:

Speaking to others online about investing opportunities, there's not a lot around in 2018. Bitcoin had it's crash at the start of the year, and has not made any headway. If this is the year for a big crash, this could be it.

Beneath is a little weekly chart for comparison of 1987 (a memorable crash in history) and now, with a 50 week moving average for a frame of reference. The times to be in the market can be generally seen when the moving average is moving upwards and the indice action is above it. I have chosen this average because it fits the chart generally well, and still gives options that a crash is not a forgone conclusion at this point in time.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.974d8c62693d390def8563155eae676d.jpg

 

Source

to tecnical for me,i just look around .its often said the first into a resesion are the builders and there suppliers and they are normaly the first out of one.i will watch the builders.

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This weekend will be crucial. Everyone will be mulling over the falls this week, and seeing if there are any opportunities, OR if things are a bit too expensive still. 

We had the near blow up of Patisserie Holdings this week, which blindsided many professional fund managers who had invested in this. There was no sign that things were bad by the auditors in the last report.

However the reality was that a £450m company was possibly worth ????? in the space of 48hrs. Fortunately for the workers there is a rescue package at the last minute, so there is liquidity out there. This is domestically, but there is also some reality check state side with the trade tariff war.

What ever the reasons, mid term the stock market is generally weak in the Presidential Cycle.

Edited by 201p

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2 hours ago, stokiescum said:

they wont go bancrupt and once the crash happens im going to buy more,in hindsite i promised myself id sell if they ever hit 2 quid sadly i didnt got greedy lol.they were the first shares i ever bought and are certificated i knew nothing then about online dealing.ive only got a 1000 and they cost me 32p each.the divis since mean they are free.i think next years divis will be around 13p a share so its been a good investment

I believe with the special dividend they are paying 18.3p a share ** for 2019 covered by the 21p fwd earnings per share ( only a couple of months left for that to be fulfilled and TW are upbeat on the annual). 

Two major crashes on TW in 1989 and 2007. In the first instance they were trading at 390 and in 2007* at 711. In both cases the inflation adjusted price in today's money would be a tenner assuming they haven't issued more shares such as a two for one. If not we are today at 16% of the previous crash values and they have a cash position of half a  billion.

But the Market is really down on domestic stocks just now with Brexit. Without oil and tech stocks the FTSE 100 would probably be trading at inflation adjusted lows similar to the routs of 2003 and 2009 maybe around 5500. But yep could get worse especially if political uncertainty continues.

* got a feeling the 2007 debacle was to do with a debt financed merger with Taylor which left them a billion plus in debt (and the house price crash obviously) ?

**2019 dividend...600 mill ( min )  / 5.28 billion equals 11.4% at close today.

https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/corporate/shareholder-information/dividend/dividend-information

Edited by crashmonitor

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2 hours ago, stokiescum said:

they wont go bancrupt and once the crash happens im going to buy more,in hindsite i promised myself id sell if they ever hit 2 quid sadly i didnt got greedy lol.they were the first shares i ever bought and are certificated i knew nothing then about online dealing.ive only got a 1000 and they cost me 32p each.the divis since mean they are free.i think next years divis will be around 13p a share so its been a good investment

They won't go bankrupt. Their balance sheet is in rude health and I think I'll add this to my watchlist. I had £1,000 of dividends drop in yesterday and took a small bite in IQE once more at 72p. That's positive but my (soon to be exLTS) portfolio dropped below £160k (all time high £173k) so I'm a little nervous. Daimler was a poor trade on my part so I might split that and buy some VW to capture the car market that isn't premium. It's a rude wake up call  after fifteen quarters of growth that I'm not immune from bad decisions and corrections. 

Edited by longtomsilver

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