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Autumn Budget


spunko

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The big one has already been announced IMO: scrapping the borrowing cap for councils.

SIPP has been talked about for ages, particularly higher rate, but as it's already down to £40k maximum annual contribution It's effectively in anyway with not much additional tax revenue from cutting the higher rate.

There is general lack of interest as he's going to be mostly keeping his powder dry to allow short term measures to be brought in to counter any unexpected adverse effects of Brexit in March.

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Bringing in S24 for basic rate taxpayers and bringing in  S24 for higher rate taxpayers a year early ... but also some handout for them, possibly deduction in CGT.

Help to Buy to be only for first time buyers, but extended to keep builder share prices sky high.

But it wont get past parliament as he is despised and most people want rid of him and May.

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12 minutes ago, janch said:

More money for Universal Credit to ease the pain for all those who lose out currently when they are switched over to the new system:(

This was in my youtube feed last night (it must be because my other half watches crap on the firestick :ph34r:)

 

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2 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

This was in my youtube feed last night (it must be because my other half watches crap on the firestick :ph34r:)

 

Surely the brain surgeon come rocket scientist companies are on the look out for such women.

If she hadnt gone on this show for the day she could have made 80 quid on minimum wage can eat on that for 3 weeks.

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I reckon theres going to be removal of alloances on holiday lets.

 

With AirBnB and he hell it casues, this is an area that needs takling. And taxing it is a good way.

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25 minutes ago, Banned said:

Surely the brain surgeon come rocket scientist companies are on the look out for such women.

If she hadnt gone on this show for the day she could have made 80 quid on minimum wage can eat on that for 3 weeks.

One - the crisi payment can be repaid usign the back dated benefits.

Two - her problem is she's had kids before shes got a job or means of support.

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24 minutes ago, spygirl said:

One - the crisi payment can be repaid usign the back dated benefits.

Two - her problem is she's had kids before shes got a job or means of support.

3. Being thick as pigs muck and from an environment where being dumb is seen  as a badge of honour 

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8 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

The big one has already been announced IMO: scrapping the borrowing cap for councils.

Now the councils have no money and have sold most of their assets they are giving them permission to build.. what a load of bollocks.. 

scumbag Tories.. 

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5 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

Two - her problem is she's had kids before shes got a job or means of support.

!!!
I was 36 before I had kids as I doubted I could afford. Why would you you think "you know what I'll do something really expensive", when you're on benefits because you have no income.

We know the answer unfortunately.

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Good chance it's an election budget!

Plus the usual bungs to the house building sector no doubt.

Key is to watch for any "reviews" being (quietly) announced as that tells you where they are going.

Unusually, I haven't heard any front running (where they leak something bad, do it but less so, and everyone feels relieved!).

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My predictions (and I've lifted these from ToS) 

TPTB can see the housing market stalling and will set the upper limit on stamp duty for FTBs to a higher level  and remove or cut it for "second steppers", sold as help for "hardworking families".

Expecting further HTB revisions, at the request of and for the benefit of the housebuilders

Recent history suggests to me that there will be nothing of any real vision or meaningful value announced

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The lack of noise around any housing related so far also seems ominous - perhaps likely they have yet another stinking turd rolled in glitter ready to unveil today.

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Bricks & Mortar
On 24/10/2018 at 15:36, spygirl said:

I reckon theres going to be removal of alloances on holiday lets.

 

With AirBnB and he hell it casues, this is an area that needs takling. And taxing it is a good way. 

I think we need a holiday homes thread.  If there's any announcement today, that might be a great plce to start.

 

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Bricks & Mortar

I'll be hanging on his every word for any mention of VAT threshold.  Came up last year - frozen for 2 years.  I wanna know what happens next year.

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3 hours ago, Queasing said:

The lack of noise around any housing related so far also seems ominous - perhaps likely they have yet another stinking turd rolled in glitter ready to unveil today.

Yes was about to say the same myself, if anything major was happening itd be all over the Sunday papers ...  slyly bringing in s24 for all taxpayers would be good ... but with having a landowning/builder cunt of a chancellor its highly unlikely.

It will hopefully be his last budget, but i do hope the DUP dont back it. (though there will more likely be a bung in it for them)

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On 24/10/2018 at 15:53, spygirl said:

...

Two - her problem is she's had kids before shes got a job or means of support.

You know, what this country really needs is an equivalent of 'student loans' for 20-30 year old professionals to have kids.  Something like £8k* per year just to have  a child, running to 5 years max (enough time to get them into school), with payments at similar thresholds/%ages as student loans with the same 'cancelled at 25 years'.  There'd also be a couple of details:

  • An important factor would be that the loan would be quite a bit lower than the median 'feckless person' tax credit payout (ctc and wtc) -- it would only make sense for people that already had a half decent household income.
  • Loan would be contingent on there being a couple** -- never for single parent.  Loan repaid based on %age of pay of both parties; loan remains until it is paid off, irrespective of how the total repayment is divided between the two parties.  if the couple split later on down the line same deal applies (both have %age of pay taken off their wages, and whatever that is, it goes into the same 'paying off debt' account -- ie, the debt isn't /2 for each to pay off independently).

See, the problem is we've got a debt system to cover all sorts of 'big expense' things -- houses, education, etc -- and it is really important in allowing those 'big expenses' to be paid over a lifetime rather than front-ending at exactly the point where wages are lowest.  Yet the biggest life expense of all is 'pay as you go', and this puts off the young professional, usually until it is physiologically ill-advised and too often when it is too late.

Just to note -- I'm not saying this is a good thing -- the older ways of 'marriage at 20, kids at 22' (or so) was far easier -- but we are where we are and it isn't working for the professional woman.

[*well, I've not worked out the actual number -- probably would have to be about this though]

[** happy for it to be same sex -- the point is you have to have a household income even if one is not working]

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10 minutes ago, dgul said:

You know, what this country really needs is an equivalent of 'student loans' for 20-30 year old professionals to have kids.  Something like £8k* per year just to have  a child, running to 5 years max (enough time to get them into school), with payments at similar thresholds/%ages as student loans with the same 'cancelled at 25 years'.  There'd also be a couple of details:

  • An important factor would be that the loan would be quite a bit lower than the median 'feckless person' tax credit payout (ctc and wtc) -- it would only make sense for people that already had a half decent household income.
  • Loan would be contingent on there being a couple** -- never for single parent.  Loan repaid based on %age of pay of both parties; loan remains until it is paid off, irrespective of how the total repayment is divided between the two parties.  if the couple split later on down the line same deal applies (both have %age of pay taken off their wages, and whatever that is, it goes into the same 'paying off debt' account -- ie, the debt isn't /2 for each to pay off independently).

See, the problem is we've got a debt system to cover all sorts of 'big expense' things -- houses, education, etc -- and it is really important in allowing those 'big expenses' to be paid over a lifetime rather than front-ending at exactly the point where wages are lowest.  Yet the biggest life expense of all is 'pay as you go', and this puts off the young professional, usually until it is physiologically ill-advised and too often when it is too late.

Just to note -- I'm not saying this is a good thing -- the older ways of 'marriage at 20, kids at 22' (or so) was far easier -- but we are where we are and it isn't working for the professional woman.

[*well, I've not worked out the actual number -- probably would have to be about this though]

[** happy for it to be same sex -- the point is you have to have a household income even if one is not working]

Too complex. All UK beneits problems are down to complexity and poor incentives.

Simple soultion is give a single parent up to 10 years on benefit to get their kids to 11/13ish.

But then the years not working are added to the state retirement age.

 

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18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Too complex. All UK beneits problems are down to complexity and poor incentives.

Simple soultion is give a single parent up to 10 years on benefit to get their kids to 11/13ish.

But then the years not working are added to the state retirement age.

 

No -- because there is no risk share and no incentive to have children early. 

  • Risk share is important -- have a child, and pay for it if your life works out as planned, but if it isn't so good we'll take some of the burden (ie, debt cancelled at 25 years).
  • Incentive is important -- do it now rather than in 5 years time.

Personally, I think we need a debt based welfare system.  If you lose your job we'll loan you a decent amount of money (say up to upper tax threshold, post tax equivalent) up to some 'big number' but you have to pay it off through PAYE, with any remainder written off at 25 years.  The 'child loan' would then feed into this loan based welfare system.

My problem with the current system is that it doesn't actually do what it is supposed to do -- for the 'average person' welfare doesn't actually act as insurance for short periods of unemployment.  It only acts as a 'secondary social system' in the UK, which is all very lovely, but where's the social insurance part?  Similarly, the system incentivises the feckless into having children but doesn't influence the people you should be influencing, the professional class.  I'm sure they'd never go for a proper 'social insurance' system (too expensive), so the 'welfare loan' then gives an imperfect second choice.  

The other point is that they're desperate to keep on pumping debt into the system -- so a debt based secondary welfare system would help in this regard.

[again, note, I don't want this -- I think there needs to be gross reform of the whole system to give a proper insurance based 'hard times' system, with no potential for any standard of life at all for those on 'lifetime of benefits' -- but we are where we are and this seems a way sort-of forwards]

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