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Fantasy investor 2019


Inoperational Bumblebee

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Posted here as it not a position but a suggestion. I know its probably more work but perhaps for this one we allow say 3 trades within the time period? Obvioulsy your trade has to be posted real time ie i sell my gold at 1250 and reinvest in ftse at 7100 for example? Would prolly require more skill than just picking a stock for example?

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  • 1 month later...
Don Coglione

Depending on the rules, this could be a lot trickier to track over a full 12 months, compared to 2 months in 2018.

Picking stocks to hold for November and December 2018 was straightforward. If the rule for 2019 is that picks made now must be held until December 31st, then tracking is not so hard; however, if participants are able to sell and buy throughout the year, I don't fancy being the one to maintain the spreadsheet...

I would buy goldies today, but I wouldn't necessary want to have to commit to holding them until year end, for example.

Clarity required - Boss Bumblebee!

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leonardratso

im rather poorly at the moment so im not up to raising a new sheet, ill leave that to someone else. Also yes, carry forward of profit/loss is a pain in the arse if the person decides to swap out.

We also have the problems of google finance going a bit downhill every year, for example the crypto are often overloaded at the api, but others are problematic as well occasionally.

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leonardratso
1 hour ago, Green Devil said:

I guess those that betted on Crypto are at the bottom of the pile. :)

not neccessarily, i noticed that eth was down at $81 so i threw a couple of hundred quid at it,  unfortunately £100 went at £117 and £100 at  £101, so i was a little late, but no problem, i set a sell limit order at £150 and then i signed off and forgot about it, i reckon it will make it eventually, im seeing it pulsate higher per cycle and the cycles on eth are fast and violent, so ill make some money i reckon, its not dead yet and theres still money to be made, but i wouldnt throw the farm at it.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Inoperational Bumblebee
On 02/01/2019 at 19:17, Ponty Mython said:

Depending on the rules, this could be a lot trickier to track over a full 12 months, compared to 2 months in 2018.

Picking stocks to hold for November and December 2018 was straightforward. If the rule for 2019 is that picks made now must be held until December 31st, then tracking is not so hard; however, if participants are able to sell and buy throughout the year, I don't fancy being the one to maintain the spreadsheet...

I would buy goldies today, but I wouldn't necessary want to have to commit to holding them until year end, for example.

Clarity required - Boss Bumblebee!

Sorry folks, my browsing time has been severely curtailed by work, work stress and family affairs this past month.

My suggestion is trade however you want, and keep track of your own. Post portfolio each time you change, and quote your previous, detailing your changes below the quote.

I can't see any motivation to lie as posts will be time-stamped and it's not as if there's anything to win! Unless you're doing the trades for real...

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Well I've just made my first ever trades for over 20 years!  Last time I traded it was all by phone and with paper certs and I lost on Marconi shares which I bought as a share-tipster said it was a good idea!! I lost the lot and it's taken me all this time to recover.

I've been following DBs thread since the start on ToS plus I read financial press articles and took the plunge with shares in VOD and Centrica.  It's taken me a few weeks to go through the joining palava fpr AJ Bell with counter-signed ID docs and then they wanted a bank statement.  I was nervous of doing it all by computer too (being a complete wuss).  I'm going for the "buy and hold" strategy and will buy a few more "basics" soon.  I'd like to go for the miners but need to get the "steady as she goes" portfolio first.  I was looking at trusts/ETFs/investment trusts but was overwhelmed by the choice and most seem to have stocks which are about to go south egFANGS so I'm doing it all myself instead.

I'm a complete novice and way behind the rest of you but I need to learn and the only way is to take part and not "invest" more than I can bear to lose.

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Dont worry, i dont see why novices shouldnt be losing money the same as veterans.

I tend to treat it as a lottery anyways, some youhe lose, some you win, as long as i havent pissed away 10's of thousands and materially affected my standard or living then its like going down the bookies with a bit of spare change, walk away with your shirt still on your back.

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3 hours ago, janch said:

Well I've just made my first ever trades for over 20 years!  Last time I traded it was all by phone and with paper certs and I lost on Marconi shares which I bought as a share-tipster said it was a good idea!! I lost the lot and it's taken me all this time to recover.

I've been following DBs thread since the start on ToS plus I read financial press articles and took the plunge with shares in VOD and Centrica.  It's taken me a few weeks to go through the joining palava fpr AJ Bell with counter-signed ID docs and then they wanted a bank statement.  I was nervous of doing it all by computer too (being a complete wuss).  I'm going for the "buy and hold" strategy and will buy a few more "basics" soon.  I'd like to go for the miners but need to get the "steady as she goes" portfolio first.  I was looking at trusts/ETFs/investment trusts but was overwhelmed by the choice and most seem to have stocks which are about to go south egFANGS so I'm doing it all myself instead.

I'm a complete novice and way behind the rest of you but I need to learn and the only way is to take part and not "invest" more than I can bear to lose.

Perhaps it's worth reading up a bit more on modern portfolio theory. Now I'm not saying it's correct way to invest, nor stock picking is wrong but it's quite obvious there is significant prejudice in the credit/deflation thread for home bias, against passive investing and ETFs/Funds in general. I would even say there's a few that are more gamblers than investors for the long term. Also it is clear you don't understand ETFs/ITs/Funds etc and are letting FANGs and their potential performance blind your decision making.

As a novice you do understand that picking two stocks (my two worst performers of 2018) and some miners will have significant volitilty? I'm sure you do that's why you think you're being a wuss and are only investing what you can bare to lose. Seems more like a gamble and you're not confident in your decision making. I recommend the monevator site for further reading.

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19 hours ago, A_P said:

Perhaps it's worth reading up a bit more on modern portfolio theory. Now I'm not saying it's correct way to invest, nor stock picking is wrong but it's quite obvious there is significant prejudice in the credit/deflation thread for home bias, against passive investing and ETFs/Funds in general. I would even say there's a few that are more gamblers than investors for the long term. Also it is clear you don't understand ETFs/ITs/Funds etc and are letting FANGs and their potential performance blind your decision making.

As a novice you do understand that picking two stocks (my two worst performers of 2018) and some miners will have significant volitilty? I'm sure you do that's why you think you're being a wuss and are only investing what you can bare to lose. Seems more like a gamble and you're not confident in your decision making. I recommend the monevator site for further reading.

There is significant prejudice against passive investing but also an acceptance that it has it's place.Particualrly where capital preservation is paramount.

I also admit to taking a significant number of risky trades as do others but in our defence we call them that and DYOR is always stated.Shorting is a valid part of a long term strategy.

The reality is that if you're investing to double your money with a decent portion of risk, then buying S&P 500 ETF's is totally the wrong way to go.But then I'd have said that at 1300.FTSE 100 has barely moved over 20 years so if you'd been in the ETF then you'd have had the divi.USing some some long term moving averages mgiht have increased returns but buying decent size blue chips when they're cheap has done very well indeed.

Possibly worth consdiering the dogs of the FTSE portfolio??

I'm sure Janch understands his risk profile perhaps more than he lets on after all he/she hasn't traded in 20 years.

 

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Yes I'm going for "buy and hold" blue chips and most of my savings are in cash so this investing lark is just for fun really.  As for investing strategies there's an awful lot of BS out there and I'd rather start from scratch and trust my own judgement taking into account the overall macro picture.  There does seem to be a change in the air and I have a feeling that trackers (and maybe many/most funds/ETFs??) won't be as lucrative in the future.  By the way I do intend to add a few more shares; two would be stupid:)

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I'm sure Janch understands his risk profile perhaps more than he lets on after all he/she hasn't traded in 20 years.  

Maybe they do. It certainly didn't come across that was the case and I definetely sensed a lack of information at hand. For instance why would one be concerned about FANGS if you're only in a FTSE tracker? Or at worst in a US total stock market where at most they make up what? 10% of the holding? If they shit the bed as part of a diversified portfolio what's the damage? Can you keep fighting and see some light at the end of the tunnel when they're replaced? Compare that to several blue chips and miners? Who knows but it was why i mentioned volitly, get ready to see those numbers jump all around. Shall we see how VOD are doing this past year? When the FTSE 100 dropped what 8% in the same period?

image.thumb.png.7fc23094eebeb238e4106ab8cb520351.png

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The reality is that if you're investing to double your money with a decent portion of risk, then buying S&P 500 ETF's is totally the wrong way to go.But then I'd have said that at 1300.FTSE 100 has barely moved over 20 years so if you'd been in the ETF then you'd have had the divi.USing some some long term moving averages mgiht have increased returns but buying decent size blue chips when they're cheap has done very well indeed.

Here lies some of hte problem....you don't know that to be certain regarding the S & P.

image.png.11482871188d0dac60a134fd8ab39c4c.png

Although of course, past performance.....but that's why I suggest reading more in MPT. Additionally as I said above with there being home bias within the thread it also crosses over to the ETF/Passive discussions. I see focus on very specific indicies, eg FTSE 100 or S & P. The whole of UK makes up 6% currently of the global market. Yes the FTSE 100 hasn't moved much but then they pay out higher divis. How has the ftse all share done in those years? I don't know by my app only goes back to 2010 and it's not too bad if growth has been the aim.

image.png

Why such a narrow focus on a wide range of asset classes availble? I've also seen discussion of fees way above what they actually are. Now you're getting into market timing for your blue chip purcahses but no market timing for the index purchase? But then why would one only be in a concentrated index that focuses on paying divis if capital growth was the aim? O.o

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Possibly worth consdiering the dogs of the FTSE portfolio??  

Well that depends on ones aim. Not for me to say nor do I have the crystal ball how it will go in the future. There are a lot of asset classes and markets out there.

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On 25/01/2019 at 13:50, A_P said:

Maybe they do. It certainly didn't come across that was the case and I definetely sensed a lack of information at hand. For instance why would one be concerned about FANGS if you're only in a FTSE tracker? Or at worst in a US total stock market where at most they make up what? 10% of the holding? If they shit the bed as part of a diversified portfolio what's the damage? Can you keep fighting and see some light at the end of the tunnel when they're replaced? Compare that to several blue chips and miners? Who knows but it was why i mentioned volitly, get ready to see those numbers jump all around. Shall we see how VOD are doing this past year? When the FTSE 100 dropped what 8% in the same period?

Although of course, past performance.....but that's why I suggest reading more in MPT. Additionally as I said above with there being home bias within the thread it also crosses over to the ETF/Passive discussions. I see focus on very specific indicies, eg FTSE 100 or S & P. The whole of UK makes up 6% currently of the global market. Yes the FTSE 100 hasn't moved much but then they pay out higher divis. How has the ftse all share done in those years? I don't know by my app only goes back to 2010 and it's not too bad if growth has been the aim.

Why such a narrow focus on a wide range of asset classes availble? I've also seen discussion of fees way above what they actually are. Now you're getting into market timing for your blue chip purcahses but no market timing for the index purchase? But then why would one only be in a concentrated index that focuses on paying divis if capital growth was the aim? O.o

Well that depends on ones aim. Not for me to say nor do I have the crystal ball how it will go in the future. There are a lot of asset classes and markets out there.

1) I think the Fang stocks are symptomatc of the froth in the S&P.

2) ref buying Vod, or any other out of avour blue chip,you have to buy on a 5 yr/decade view imho.

3) Agree there's a predominantly stock pivcking theme to the main thread.However, there's also people here to learn.I remember you and I having a chat about ETFs before and you highlighted a FTSE 100 tracker with an expense ratio of 0.06% and it made me really reassess my refusel to use them.I'd remembered the early days of ETFs when the expnse ratios were higher and had switched off them ever since.I'm not currently buying any ETF's but will definitely be doing so when it suits in the future.

4) my reference to timing was withn regard to improving ETF performance.Sorry if I didn't explain myself well.I tend to find long term MA's work best on indices.

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On 24/01/2019 at 13:51, janch said:

Well I've just made my first ever trades for over 20 years!  Last time I traded it was all by phone and with paper certs and I lost on Marconi shares which I bought as a share-tipster said it was a good idea!! I lost the lot and it's taken me all this time to recover.

I've been following DBs thread since the start on ToS plus I read financial press articles and took the plunge with shares in VOD and Centrica.  It's taken me a few weeks to go through the joining palava fpr AJ Bell with counter-signed ID docs and then they wanted a bank statement.  I was nervous of doing it all by computer too (being a complete wuss).  I'm going for the "buy and hold" strategy and will buy a few more "basics" soon.  I'd like to go for the miners but need to get the "steady as she goes" portfolio first.  I was looking at trusts/ETFs/investment trusts but was overwhelmed by the choice and most seem to have stocks which are about to go south egFANGS so I'm doing it all myself instead.

I'm a complete novice and way behind the rest of you but I need to learn and the only way is to take part and not "invest" more than I can bear to lose.

What a week to invest in Vodafone. Welcome to Vod losers club. I am in a similar position to you: not traded for 10 years but decided to gamble about 6 months ago after returning to ToS and reading some convincing arguments in the original thread.

I have convinced myself with BT and Vodafone.  Luckily I went in really heavy on BT and  lighter on Vod, since then added various gold miners, utilities, etc.  In absolute terms BT is now my biggest gain and Vod is by far the biggest loss. 

Overall, I am probably doing a little better than having held cash in a bank but with much more adrenaline.  Definitely outperformed most of my work's DC pension funds over the same period.

 

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On 24/01/2019 at 17:25, A_P said:

Perhaps it's worth reading up a bit more on modern portfolio theory. Now I'm not saying it's correct way to invest, nor stock picking is wrong but it's quite obvious there is significant prejudice in the credit/deflation thread for home bias, against passive investing and ETFs/Funds in general. I would even say there's a few that are more gamblers than investors for the long term. Also it is clear you don't understand ETFs/ITs/Funds etc and are letting FANGs and their potential performance blind your decision making.

As a novice you do understand that picking two stocks (my two worst performers of 2018) and some miners will have significant volitilty? I'm sure you do that's why you think you're being a wuss and are only investing what you can bare to lose. Seems more like a gamble and you're not confident in your decision making. I recommend the monevator site for further reading.

Also take a look at `The Library` thread in the `Investing` section of this website as its got links for books/videos...I set it up for people just like us I.e newbies or forgetful returners to the `game`

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9 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

What a week to invest in Vodafone. Welcome to Vod losers club. I am in a similar position to you: not traded for 10 years but decided to gamble about 6 months ago after returning to ToS and reading some convincing arguments in the original thread.

I have convinced myself with BT and Vodafone.  Luckily I went in really heavy on BT and  lighter on Vod, since then added various gold miners, utilities, etc.  In absolute terms BT is now my biggest gain and Vod is by far the biggest loss. 

Overall, I am probably doing a little better than having held cash in a bank but with much more adrenaline.  Definitely outperformed most of my work's DC pension funds over the same period.

 

And I think this is where the two approaches (passive/active) come together, passive to protect your `cake`, and active to have a bit of fun/excitement with the `cherry` on top!...and yes, there is still space for the other extreme investors (savers/gamblers).

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15 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

What a week to invest in Vodafone. Welcome to Vod losers club. I am in a similar position to you: not traded for 10 years but decided to gamble about 6 months ago after returning to ToS and reading some convincing arguments in the original thread.

I have convinced myself with BT and Vodafone.  Luckily I went in really heavy on BT and  lighter on Vod, since then added various gold miners, utilities, etc.  In absolute terms BT is now my biggest gain and Vod is by far the biggest loss. 

Overall, I am probably doing a little better than having held cash in a bank but with much more adrenaline.  Definitely outperformed most of my work's DC pension funds over the same period.

 

Yes, it's a baptism of fire!  Glad I'm not the only novice and as I intend to hold for a while I'm interested to see what happens when divis come along etc.  I'm definitely on a steep learning curve and am of the mindset that "some you win/some you lose".  I've watched the wretched interest rates on my savings for long enough and just want a bit more excitement in my life!  I'm certainly not betting the house on anything though and will diversify to a few more stocks in the coming weeks.  Maybe this isn't the best time to be investing with Brexit looming large or maybe it is and everything will leap upwards when there is more certainty.

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On 29/01/2019 at 14:48, janch said:

Yes, it's a baptism of fire!  Glad I'm not the only novice and as I intend to hold for a while I'm interested to see what happens when divis come along etc.  I'm definitely on a steep learning curve and am of the mindset that "some you win/some you lose".  I've watched the wretched interest rates on my savings for long enough and just want a bit more excitement in my life!  I'm certainly not betting the house on anything though and will diversify to a few more stocks in the coming weeks.  Maybe this isn't the best time to be investing with Brexit looming large or maybe it is and everything will leap upwards when there is more certainty.

image.png.8e4304484ddcd77a515fd562ffbe539b.png

image.png.6e6efb9d67b8eada4f91ab20b6f71596.png

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Given that it is completely imaginary money I will have Ether and Ripple split. I don't think they have finished bottoming out and would look to scale in rather than just go all in at today's prices but imaginary so:

Ether - £500,000 at 1.09 (bottom currently appears to be 0.8)

Ripple £500,000 at 0.32 (bottom currently appears to be 0.25)

In real life I'm not in either and am waiting for some confirmation of the bottom before I go in (with very small stakes in any event!)

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sleepwello'nights
On ‎28‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 22:13, Bear Hug said:

What a week to invest in Vodafone. Welcome to Vod losers club. I am in a similar position to you: not traded for 10 years but decided to gamble about 6 months ago after returning to ToS and reading some convincing arguments in the original thread.

I have convinced myself with BT and Vodafone.  Luckily I went in really heavy on BT and  lighter on Vod, since then added various gold miners, utilities, etc.  In absolute terms BT is now my biggest gain and Vod is by far the biggest loss. 

Overall, I am probably doing a little better than having held cash in a bank but with much more adrenaline.  Definitely outperformed most of my work's DC pension funds over the same period.

 

Told you when I bought some that the price was going to drop.

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