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House Prices Indices


Lavalas

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Or should that be indexes

Well here’s a thread to discuss the latest House Price Indices. Nationwide, Acadata, Land Reg, Halifax, RICS, whatever. 

Even Savills mad predictions if you like.

What’s going on nationally, what’s the trend and why, false dawns, possible jubilation, depressing rises, all that shit.

National, local, anececdotal.

Detailed chat useful for reference in the main thread.

I’ll update if I remember and it’s not too depressing. Please do the same if you can be arsed.

 

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The Forex Factory calendar is useful for seeing when the latest ones will be released along with the forecasts a few days before...

https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Latest one was the RICS survey.

Big fan of reading the whining estate agent comments...

https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/knowledge/research/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey-october-2018.pdf

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East Central Scotland, October 2018, the madness continues...

https://espc.com/news/post/house-price-report-october-2018

Key Points

  • Between August and October 2018, the average selling price of a house in east central Scotland rose to £246,927 compared to £232,814 for the same period in 2017, which was a 6.1% increase
  • During this period, the number of homes coming to market increased by 10.9% annually
  • The number of homes sold during this period decreased by 0.4% annually
  • From August to October 2018, the median selling time of a property in east central Scotland was 20 days, which was 1 day slower than last year
  • During this period, the average percentage of Home Report valuation achieved was 104.4% compared to 104% last year
  • Between August and October 2018, 86.1% of properties were marketed as ‘offers over’ compared to 84.1% last year.
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5 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

East Central Scotland, October 2018, the madness continues...

https://espc.com/news/post/house-price-report-october-2018

Key Points

  • Between August and October 2018, the average selling price of a house in east central Scotland rose to £246,927 compared to £232,814 for the same period in 2017, which was a 6.1% increase
  • During this period, the number of homes coming to market increased by 10.9% annually
  • The number of homes sold during this period decreased by 0.4% annually
  • From August to October 2018, the median selling time of a property in east central Scotland was 20 days, which was 1 day slower than last year
  • During this period, the average percentage of Home Report valuation achieved was 104.4% compared to 104% last year
  • Between August and October 2018, 86.1% of properties were marketed as ‘offers over’ compared to 84.1% last year.

I live in Edinburgh, and can confirm that the last 12 months have seen prices skyrocket. The anecdotals I hear about prices dropping elsewhere in the UK might as well be the other side of the world. It's a microcosm of madness in the Lothians.

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8 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

I live in Edinburgh, and can confirm that the last 12 months have seen prices skyrocket. The anecdotals I hear about prices dropping elsewhere in the UK might as well be the other side of the world. It's a microcosm of madness in the Lothians.

So that'll be all the Sasanachs coming up to `rape and pillage` then :-)

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26 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

I live in Edinburgh, and can confirm that the last 12 months have seen prices skyrocket. The anecdotals I hear about prices dropping elsewhere in the UK might as well be the other side of the world. It's a microcosm of madness in the Lothians.

I always remember someone on ToS telling me ten years ago that Morningside would never drop................how right they were....:Old:

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LCP and LSL Acadata are my favourites geek that I am.We must be due one,I get them by email.

 

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/mind-the-gap-selling-prices-reported-by-lender-a-long-way-off-rightmoves-asking-prices/

'Mind the gap! Selling prices reported by lender a long way off Rightmove’s asking prices

House price growth has reached its lowest annual level for more than five years, Halifax claims.

The bank’s October House Price Index showed annual growth in the market slowed from 2.5% in September to 1.5% last month, the lowest rate since March 2013.

On a monthly basis prices grew marginally, by just 0.7%, after consecutive monthly falls in August and September.

This left average prices at £227,869, but a long way off the latest new asking prices on  Rightmove of £307,245.

The average Halifax figure is still ahead of Nationwide data which last week claimed house price growth was also at a five-year low of 1.6% to £214,534.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, said: “House prices continue to be supported by the fact that the supply of new homes and existing properties available for sale remains low.

“Further house price support comes from an already high and improving employment rate and historically low mortgage rates which are creating higher rates of relative affordability.

“We see this continuing to be the case over the coming months and we remain supportive of our 0-3% forecast range.”

Commenting on the Halifax figures, Lucy Pendleton, founder director of London firm James Pendleton estate agents, said discounting has become more common to attract buyers.

She said: “The most sluggish rate of growth for over half a decade mirrors exactly what is being witnessed on the high street.

“The sense of urgency with which people are adjusting their prices has increased. Discounts of £200,000 on homes over a million were rare six months ago but are now not uncommon.

“We’ve narrowly avoided a three-month run of negative price growth but in what is now certainly a buyers’ market in many areas of the country, the boot is now on the other foot.

“Sellers have needed some encouragement over the past few months to recognise the way the tea leaves were arranging themselves.

“However, the vast majority are now on the same page as buyers who have got more confident and less impatient. More often than not it’s us calling them, not the other way round any more.

“More agile vendors will likely improve the number of houses changing hands as people seal deals and buyers frustrated by a lack of affordability come back to the table.

“There’s no reason for vendors to lose hope though. If you are selling and buying, you can make up any shortfall in your budget by shopping well yourself. This is how the game is played and vendors in a flat market can still come out ahead.”'

 

 

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LSL Acadata is out 0.4% mom and 1.0% yoy.I like the Acadata series because they use house sales not the mortgage approvals Haliwide guesses.

Big news is South East and North East report annual falls

 

Pie report it thus

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-prices-grow-for-first-time-in-eight-months/

House prices have grown on a monthly basis for the first time in eight months, Your Move claims today.

Analysis by the agency shows average prices grew 0.4% between September and October to £304,433, the first monthly rise since February when values also rose by the same rate.

Annual growth did however fall for the second month in a row to 1%.

Most regions registered annual growth, except the south-east and north-east of England which were down 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

The midlands tops the annual growth tables with both the east and west up, 2.8% and 3.1% respectively.

Estimated sales for last month were 6% down on October last year, but the agent said transactions were 2% higher than October 2016.

Oliver Blake, managing director of Your Move, said: “Whilst price growth has slowed considerably in England and Wales, the fact that there is a relatively strong economic backdrop, and there have been three consecutive months of growth, means it’s not all doom and gloom.”

 

 

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It’s pleasing that the LSL index paints a bit more of a sobering picture in North West and Yorkshire as they’re the ‘up north’ areas that you constantly hear the southern Landlords are heading for in search of yield. Although looking at the Midlands maybe there’s a ripple on the way?

http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/

 

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Last week the usually sobering Land Reg providing some potential cheers with 0% m/m.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-summary-september-2018

Today though, Rightmove clocks in with a -1.7% monthly fall and a sweet -0.2% annual fall. First since 2011.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-19th-Nov-2018-FINAL.pdf

Yeah I know it’s just asking prices so essentially a measure of seller sentiment and estate agent bullishness but surely they must also resemble in some form the price buyers are willing to pay, and surely that will be reflected more so as the market turns. I think it’s also non seasonally adjusted and a much neater dataset than some of the others.

Whatever, today I like the right move index.

Regional highlights include a whopping -2.4% m/m in Yorkshire and Humber. Not sure how meaningful that is over such a large and diverse area but will take it gladly.

Also London Zones 1 to 5 now all negative year on year. Just waiting for Zone 6 to turn from 3.1%.

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18 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Last week the usually sobering Land Reg providing some potential cheers with 0% m/m.

 

Also London Zones 1 to 5 now all negative year on year. Just waiting for Zone 6 to turn from 3.1%.

Zone 1 central London down 6.9%. Chunky.

Days on market and stock levels across the board not yet that much different so no stampede for the exits, yet.

Next month should see more falls, Spring is going to be key, if prices don't harden again as usual seasonally we're off the to the races. 

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8 minutes ago, Harley said:

Only in the US and illiterate UK.

Both are acceptable, indices follows the Latin plural rule, indexes the English plural rule.

There are a few words with two or more plurals in the English language such as referendums and referenda.

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24 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Both are acceptable, indices follows the Latin plural rule, indexes the English plural rule.

We're in the EU for good now so RIP the English plural rule!

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LCP Acadata for Sept published 22/10/18

https://www.londoncentralportfolio.com/research-media#research

September 2018 Report 22nd October 2018  Source - Land Registry -

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON (PCL) TRANSACTIONS FALL TO ALL TIME LOW

Average annual prices in September (excluding new build) in PCL now stand at £1,866,517. • Annual prices increase by 4.9% due to an improved performance in the high value sector. • Annual transactions fall 16.8%, down 45% on 2014.New build prices remain at a high premium of 39.8% over existing stock and now stand at £2,653,256.** • New build transactions are almost static, falling by 0.8% across the year.

DECILES:

 Mainstream sector sees annual price growth fall by 1.0% to £870,690. • Premium sector sees relatively positive annual price growth of 4.9% to £4,117,296.

GREATER LONDON NEW BUILD TRANSACTIONS FALL BY ALMOST 14%

Average prices in September (excluding new build) in Greater London now stand at £649,246.

• This represents a monthly increase of 2.1% and nominal annual growth of just 1.5%.

Annual transactions continue to fall to 87,358, a drop of 7.6%, due to higher taxes and continued uncertainty.

• These falls have been seen across Greater London with new build transactions falling 13.6% over the year.

• New build prices now stand at £791,455, a 31.1% premium over existing stock.**

ENGLAND AND WALES (EXCLUDING GREATER LONDON) NEW BUILD PREMIUM INCREASES TO ALMOST 15%

• Average prices in September (excluding new build) in England and Wales now stand at £266,993.

• This represents a monthly increase of 1.6% and nominal annual growth of 2.4%.

• Annual transactions continue to fall to 779,638, a drop of 3.2%, as uncertainty persists.

• New build prices stand at £286,679 representing a 14.8% premium over existing stock.**

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  • 3 weeks later...

I skipped Nationwide last week because I was feeling how ridiculous it is pay any attention to such a vested interest, plus it was up a bit.

Anyway, there are no rules here and I’m pleased to report that Halifax weighed in today with a -1.4% m/m, -1.1% q/q and +0.3% y/y

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/November-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

 

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On 08/11/2018 at 16:09, Lavalas said:

Or should that be indexes

Well here’s a thread to discuss the latest House Price Indices. Nationwide, Acadata, Land Reg, Halifax, RICS, whatever. 

Even Savills mad predictions if you like.

What’s going on nationally, what’s the trend and why, false dawns, possible jubilation, depressing rises, all that shit.

National, local, anececdotal.

Detailed chat useful for reference in the main thread.

I’ll update if I remember and it’s not too depressing. Please do the same if you can be arsed.

 

Useless. Totally meaningless.

Get the LR data for where you are interested.

Look the actual selling prices and number of sales.

 

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reformed nice guy
4 hours ago, Lavalas said:

I skipped Nationwide last week because I was feeling how ridiculous it is pay any attention to such a vested interest, plus it was up a bit.

Anyway, there are no rules here and I’m pleased to report that Halifax weighed in today with a -1.4% m/m, -1.1% q/q and +0.3% y/y

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/November-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

 

So after inflation, a good drop in y/y average?

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  • 2 weeks later...

LSL Acadata out East of England has gone yoy neg with a-0.2%.Greater London showing clear signs of stress depsite 0.8% annual fig

 

PRIOR YR RANK RANK BY PRICE LONDON BOROUGH Oct-17 Sep-18 Oct-18 Month % Change Annual %Change
1 1 KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA 2 ,063,124 1,734,969 1,722,840 -0.7% -16.5%
2 2 CITY OF WESTMINSTER 1,793,728 1,452,687 1,348,725 -7.2% -24.8%
5 3 CITY OF LONDON 898,155 1,036,572 968,025 -6.6% 7.8%
4 4 CAMDEN 987,935 955,200 948,129 -0.7% -4.0%
3 5 HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM 1 , 0 0 3,022 903,935 897,418 -0.7% -10.5%
7 6 RICHMOND UPON THAMES 783,121 773,880 781,679 1.0% -0.2%
8 7 ISLINGTON 717,181 721,211 729,241 1.1% 1.7%
6 8 WANDSWORTH 787,862 689,568 703,044 2.0% -10.8%
9 9 MERTON 647,793 670,903 696,290 3.8% 7.5%
14 10 LAMBETH 586,084 610,770 630,864 3.3% 7.6%
11 11 HARINGEY 637,408 618,392 626,317 1.3% -1.7%
10 12 BARNET 640,104 612,806 621,355 1.4% -2.9%
16 13 HACKNEY 571,064 603,560 602,913 -0.1% 5.6%
12 14 SOUTHWARK 600,317 608,320 592,720 -2.6% -1.3%
17 15 KINGSTON UPON THAMES 564,403 561,496 567,902 1.1% 0.6%
18 16 BRENT 554,680 579,512 561,584 -3.1% 1.2%
15 17 EALING 576,698 546,414 549,044 0.5% -4.8%
13 18 TOWER HAMLETS 595,173 514,713 513,930 -0.2% -13.7%
20 19 HARROW 528,356 499,137 506,125 1.4% -4.2%
19 20 HOUNSLOW 530,776 495,335 505,090 2.0% -4.8%
21 21 BROMLEY 501,593 486,539 485,090 -0.3% -3.3%
24 22 REDBRIDGE 459,387 463,729 472,381 1.9% 2.8%
27 23 WALTHAM FOREST 455,010 467,351 465,896 -0.3% 2.4%
22 24 GREENWICH 482,370 461,735 454,382 -1.6% -5.8%
26 25 LEWISHAM 455,159 447,014 451,632 1.0% -0.8%
23 26 ENFIELD 464,970 447,559 444,162 -0.8% -4.5%
25 27 HILLINGDON 457,911 432,543 429,244 -0.8% -6.3%
29 28 SUTTON 400,867 403,377 406,384 0.7% 1.4%
30 29 CROYDON 397,886 391,681 389,958 -0.4% -2.0%
28 30 NEWHAM 411,535 392,516 383,908 -2.2% -6.7%
31 31 HAVERING 389,368 384,075 381,038 -0.8% -2.1%
32 32 BEXLEY 355,129 362,239 361,014 -0.3% 1.7%
33 33 BARKING AND DAGENHAM 302,219 303,323 304,274 0.3% 0.7%
ALL LONDON 617,643 614,501 622,508 1.3% 0.8%

CLP Acaddata in my indobx too

 

full report

https://www.londoncentralportfolio.com/Hidden-Files/LCP/PR/LCPAca Resi Index December 2018.pdf

 

Headlines from November 2018 Report

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON (PCL)


Prices & transactions continue to fall
  • Average annual prices in November (excluding new build) in PCL now stand at £1,859,365.
  • Monthly prices fall by 2.7%.
  • Quarterly prices fall by 5.9%.
  • Annual transactions fall 14.7% to 3,703, down over 45% on 2014.
  • New build average prices now stand at £3,390,716 representing a premium of 72.7% over existing stock.
  • However quarterly transactions fall by 44.2% to just 133.
GREATER LONDON

Lowest price growth since the Global Financial Crisis
  • Average prices in November (excluding new build) in Greater London now stand at £625,457.
  • Quarterly prices fall 0.4%.
  • Annual prices rise by just 0.8%, the lowest growth since the Global Financial Crisis.
  • Annual transactions continue to fall to just 90,106, a drop of 4.1%.
  • New build transactions see far greater falls at 19.6% over the year.
  • New build prices now stand at £734,701, a 20.2% premium over existing stock.
ENGLAND AND WALES (EXCLUDING GREATER LONDON)

Market flounders as Brexit uncertainty bites
  • Average prices in November (excluding new build) in England and Wales now stand at £257,666.
  • Monthly prices fall by 1% and quarterly prices fall by 3.1%.
  • Annual prices increase by just 2.4%, the lowest growth since 2013.
  • Annual transactions now stand at 807,503, a further fall of 1.0%.
  • New build prices stand at £297,986 representing a 15.0% premium over existing stock.
  • New build transactions have increased annually by 4.5% but fall 2.5% over the last quarter.
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  • 4 weeks later...

Had a full cycle of updates since last visited this thread, in addition to Acadata kindly posted by Sancho above.

Nationwide: -0.7% m/m +0.5% y/y

Land Reg: -0.2% m/m +2.7% y/y

Rightnove: -1.5% m/m +0.7% y/y

Halifax: +2.2% m/m +1.3% y/y

 

Halifax was in with a shot of going y/y negative so predictably posted a hefty increase. There’s no doubting the trend though.

Interesting graph in the Nationwide release showing y/y North vs South. The south is now annual negative but the main index is being held up by the North which has been broadly flat at 3/4% since 2016.  I’m sure we’re all familiar with the reasons why that might be but if we’re really just interested in sentiment here then I’m looking forward to the south dragging things down further, not least because you guys down there might then be able to get something a little less scandalously expensive.

There’s so much at play I’m not predicting anything really - just trying to enjoy the ride and not let it bother me :)

 

 

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Democorruptcy
4 hours ago, Lavalas said:

It’s a hardly worth mentioning -0.1% m/m from Land Reg for November.

We need something to kick this things crutches.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-november-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-november-2018

I think after that Brexit vote the crutches might just be thrown away and this thing will be able to walk unaided. Have you not noticed the Builder shares today? There will be some serious ramping in the RICs reports soon, when/if Brexit is finally scuppered.

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