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House Prices Indices


Lavalas

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11 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think after that Brexit vote the crutches might just be thrown away and this thing will be able to walk unaided. Have you not noticed the Builder shares today? There will be some serious ramping in the RICs reports soon, when/if Brexit is finally scuppered.

You could well be right. Here’s the latest RICS report and we’re nearing peak ‘Brexit Uncertainty’ in the comments section.

https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/knowledge/research/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey-december-2018-rics.pdf

 

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LSL Acadata E&W HPI December 18
published 21st January 19

http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/

Monthly +0.3%

Annual +0.6%

"Prices rose again in December – for the fifth month in a row – up 0.3%, or £875. Annual price growth continued to slow, however, and stands at its lowest level since April 2012, at just 0.6%. CPI inflation for November (the latest figure available), meanwhile, was more than three times this figure, at 2.2%, meaning house prices are falling in real terms."

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11 hours ago, Queasing said:

LSL Acadata E&W HPI December 18
published 21st January 19

http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/

Monthly +0.3%

Annual +0.6%

"Prices rose again in December – for the fifth month in a row – up 0.3%, or £875. Annual price growth continued to slow, however, and stands at its lowest level since April 2012, at just 0.6%. CPI inflation for November (the latest figure available), meanwhile, was more than three times this figure, at 2.2%, meaning house prices are falling in real terms."

Some `investment` when the annual growth is lower than most simple High Street building society accounts!

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LCP Acadata from four days ago.

 

Highlights below

Headlines from 2018 Report

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON (PCL)


2018 year end sees prices and sales plummet
  • Average annual prices in December (excluding new build) in PCL amounted to £1,844,031.
  • Monthly prices fell by 6.0%.
  • Prices in the final quarter fell by 10.2%.
  • Annual transactions in 2018 fell 16.4% to 3,514, the lowest recorded and down over 46% on 2014.
  • New build average prices now stand at £4,461,072** representing a premium of 74.3% over existing stock.
  • Quarterly new build transactions fall by 75.1% to just 57.
GREATER LONDON

2018 sees lowest prices since the GFC
  • Average prices in Greater London (excluding new build) ended the year at £619,888.
  • Prices in Quarter 4 fell 1.1%.
  • Annual prices in 2018 rose by just 1.3%.
  • Annual transactions in 2018 fell by 7.1% to just 86,869; the fourth consecutive annual fall.
  • New build transactions saw far greater falls of 19.1% over the year.
  • New build prices now stand at £698,485, a 20.8% premium over existing stock. **
ENGLAND AND WALES (EXCLUDING GREATER LONDON)

2018 sees price growth and transactions fall to new lows
  • Average prices in England and Wales (excluding new build) ended the year at £262,126.
  • Monthly prices rose by 1.3% but fell by 0.7% over Quarter 4.
  • Annual prices for 2018 increased by just 2.8%, the lowest level of growth since 2013.
  • Annual transactions for 2018 fell by 3.7%, the largest drop since 2008 and now stand at 783,913.
  • New build annual transactions now stand at 93,619, a rise of just 3.6%.
  • New build prices stand at £299,617, representing a 14.8% premium over existing stock.**

Prime Central London

Average annual prices in December for Prime Central London (PCL) now stand at £1,844,031. They have fallen 6.0% over the month and 10.2% over Quarter 4 2018. 

Whilst prices have increased marginally over the year, this is not a cause for optimism. It is attributable to greater activity at the higher priced end of the market where the most significant discounts are available. This skews average prices upwards but even this “high-end” effect is tapering off as activity stalls.

There were just 3,514 recorded transactions in 2018, fewer than 68 sales a week. This represents a fall of 16.4% over the year and sales are now below the previous all-time low seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). There were just 57 new build transactions in the last recorded quarter.

The political turmoil the UK is currently weathering is being acutely felt throughout the country, but nowhere more so than in PCL. With the Prime Minister’s deal being voted down and no clear cross party consensus, it appears we are now even further away from a post-Brexit road map. This continues to dampen investor sentiment.

However, from a buyer’s perspective this period of low competition and suppressed prices is an excellent opportunity. The fundamentals that underpin the desirability of PCL as a global destination have not changed.

Those who still believe in these fundamentals are able to acquire properties at material discounts, with the potential for significant uplift in the medium to long term.


Greater London

Average prices for Greater London in December 2018 were £619,888, falling by 1.1% over the final quarter. 

This is lower than the average price seen in June 2017 when the Prime Minister held a snap general election. At the time she declared that it was “the only way to guarantee certainty and security for the years ahead”. With the benefit of hindsight, this has not been the case.

The average price for the last 12 months to December was £615,625, representing annual growth of just 1.3% for 2018, the lowest level since the GFC.

Transactions for 2018 amounted to 86,869, a drop of 7.1% over the year. Sales in the capital have now declined for four consecutive years amounting to a fall of 27%.

This decline coincided with the introduction of graduated SDLT and the Mortgage Market Review which had a disproportionately negative impact in Greater London, where average house prices are significantly higher than the UK as a whole.

More recent political and economic events have added more fuel to the fire and there are very few signs that this is likely to change. With Brexit looming, the property market is desperate for some positive news to restore confidence.


England & Wales

Average prices in England and Wales (excluding Greater London) stood at £262,126 for December, a fall of 0.7% over the final quarter. 

The average price for the last 12 months was £257,668. This represented annual growth of just 2.8% for 2018, the lowest since 2013.

Transactions for 2018 stood at 783,913, a drop of 3.7% over the year. This is the largest annual fall since the GFC as a ‘wait and see’ attitude towards moving house or investing becomes ever more prevalent.

Whilst transaction levels have fallen ever since the introduction of Additional Rate Stamp Duty in 2016, undoubtedly the uncertainty around Brexit is having a far more punitive effect than increased buying costs. This negative sentiment has also spilled into the new build market where growth in annual transactions is just 3.6%.

With no positive news of late, coupled with the infighting within the parties and government, it is difficult to foresee any significant changes to current market sentiment. Unity and clarity would now go some way to restoring confidence not only to the property market but to all facets of UK enterprise.

 

 

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Thanks to people for providing the acadata ones, I don’t really have a handle on when they come out.

Today saw Halifax release their latest made up figures and its... -2.9% m/m.

This offsets a pretty hefty raise last month but does leave us with just +0.8% y/y.

Basically they’re saying houses cost about the same as a year ago with a slight downtrend. Useful if they were to provide some regional info though. 

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/January-2019-Halifax-House-Price-Index.pdf

 

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On ‎31‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 13:43, sancho panza said:

LCP Acadata from four days ago.

 

Highlights below

Headlines from 2018 Report

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON (PCL)


2018 year end sees prices and sales plummet
  • Monthly prices fell by 6.0%.
  • Prices in the final quarter fell by 10.2%.
  • Annual transactions in 2018 fell 16.4% to 3,514, the lowest recorded and down over 46% on 2014.
  • New build average prices now stand at £4,461,072** representing a premium of 74.3% over existing stock.
  • Quarterly new build transactions fall by 75.1% to just 57.

Average annual prices in December for Prime Central London (PCL) now stand at £1,844,031. They have fallen 6.0% over the month and 10.2% over Quarter 4 2018. 

There were just 3,514 recorded transactions in 2018, fewer than 68 sales a week. This represents a fall of 16.4% over the year and sales are now below the previous all-time low seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). There were just 57 new build transactions in the last recorded quarter.



Truly astonishing figures, assuming new build transactions continued for the next year at the current pace (so 228) and there is still a backlog of new homes to be sold (3,000 in 2017?) there would be 13 years of supply at current demand/supply levels.  Completely mad, and that assumes that the developers completely halt building.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/26/ghost-towers-half-of-new-build-luxury-london-flats-fail-to-sell

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1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

Thanks to people for providing the acadata ones, I don’t really have a handle on when they come out.

Today saw Halifax release their latest made up figures and its... -2.9% m/m.

This offsets a pretty hefty raise last month but does leave us with just +0.8% y/y.

Basically they’re saying houses cost about the same as a year ago with a slight downtrend. Useful if they were to provide some regional info though. 

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/January-2019-Halifax-House-Price-Index.pdf

 

You can register for the updates.I get them by email.

 

https://www.londoncentralportfolio.com/research-media#press-releases

https://www.lslps.co.uk/news-and-media/market-intelligence/house-price-index

17 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Truly astonishing figures, assuming new build transactions continued for the next year at the current pace (so 228) and there is still a backlog of new homes to be sold (3,000 in 2017?) there would be 13 years of supply at current demand/supply levels.  Completely mad, and that assumes that the developers completely halt building.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/26/ghost-towers-half-of-new-build-luxury-london-flats-fail-to-sell

Years of supply is a great way to get a grip on things and get them into perspective.

I was talking to a friend in construction last night and he said things are very quiet in terms of new builds.Lot of big builders have sites on hold ahead of Brexit but says there's definitely a downturn underway.He supplies plasterboard and other bits and bobs to building sites.Says he's being asked to keep his lorry off site in the afternoons in case head office come around looking and asking why all the lorries are on site.He told me a month back he was dropping supplies on the previous weeks at some sites where they'd jsut not used anything.

Says Travis perkins are shipping plasterboard below cost to keep market share

(Decl I am short TPK and have been afor a week.Tempted to add more given what I was told)

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2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Holy smoly.Things must be even worse with LCP/LSL if Nwide are tanking.

'UK house prices fell by 2.9% in January compared with December, according to the country's largest mortgage lender.

The Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group, said it was the second time in three years that the new year had begun with a significant fall.

The month-on-month change is a volatile measure of house prices. The annual change is more stable.

The lender said prices were 0.8% up on a year ago, with the average home costing £223,691.

Annual house price change graph

"This could either be viewed as a story of resilience, as prices have held up well in the face of significant economic uncertainty, or as a continuation of the slow growth we have witnessed over recent years," said Russell Galley, Halifax managing director.

"There is no doubt that the next year will be important for the housing market with much of the immediate focus on what impact Brexit may have. However, more fundamentally it is key underlying factors of supply and demand that will ultimately shape the market."

 

Mr Galley said that relatively few properties were being put on the market, which was constraining supply, and some wage growth and low mortgage rates were encouraging some demand from potential buyers. All this had maintained house prices at roughly the same level. The Halifax house price index is based on its own lending data.

Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, said: "January is often a tough month, in which sellers who have failed to shift their home in the previous year typically cut the price in order to drum up interest.

"But the confidence-sapping uncertainty of Brexit it getting worse, not better, and the next few months will be decisive."

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4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Holy smoly.Things must be even worse with LCP/LSL if Nwide are tanking.

'UK house prices fell by 2.9% in January compared with December, according to the country's largest mortgage lender.

The Halifax, part of Lloyds Banking Group, said it was the second time in three years that the new year had begun with a significant fall.

The month-on-month change is a volatile measure of house prices. The annual change is more stable.

The lender said prices were 0.8% up on a year ago, with the average home costing £223,691.

Annual house price change graph

"This could either be viewed as a story of resilience, as prices have held up well in the face of significant economic uncertainty, or as a continuation of the slow growth we have witnessed over recent years," said Russell Galley, Halifax managing director.

"There is no doubt that the next year will be important for the housing market with much of the immediate focus on what impact Brexit may have. However, more fundamentally it is key underlying factors of supply and demand that will ultimately shape the market."

 

Mr Galley said that relatively few properties were being put on the market, which was constraining supply, and some wage growth and low mortgage rates were encouraging some demand from potential buyers. All this had maintained house prices at roughly the same level. The Halifax house price index is based on its own lending data.

Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, said: "January is often a tough month, in which sellers who have failed to shift their home in the previous year typically cut the price in order to drum up interest.

"But the confidence-sapping uncertainty of Brexit it getting worse, not better, and the next few months will be decisive."

-2.9%, expect the So-Called BBC #vileBBC to be blaming and pumping this bad news, #blameitonbrexitlikeeverythingelse

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A true gift from the Gods.

Mrs B has finally turned HPC!B|

Comment today - I think we should wait and see how this pans out. I could have danced a jig except I was in the office. 

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7 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Thanks to people for providing the acadata ones, I don’t really have a handle on when they come out.

Today saw Halifax release their latest made up figures and its... -2.9% m/m.

This offsets a pretty hefty raise last month but does leave us with just +0.8% y/y.

Basically they’re saying houses cost about the same as a year ago with a slight downtrend. Useful if they were to provide some regional info though. 

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/January-2019-Halifax-House-Price-Index.pdf

 

But what they don't mention is the cost of the missed opportunity if you had invested the same sum on the stock market!

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Guy I work with, rents a one bed newie slavebox in mega central London for however much 1200 or something insane I think he said maybe 1400 fck knows pick a figure basically

then he goes on to say it’s worth seven hundred and fifty grand - context from him was how fcking ridiculous is that price etc 

then he’s talking that he wants to BUY THIS YEAR I casually mentioned you should wait six months mate prices are on the way down in london

Few murmurs around the table from proud homeowners, he says something like yeah but they’ll just go back up again even more or some sort of stock response and that was that 

 

That was a couple of months ago, caught up with him again yesterday and I’m like mate London house prices are down three percent last month or whatever, that’ll be thirty percent in no time 

 

then he says yeah it needs to be sixty percent off! So I’m all like BRUTHA London is toast

 

Mega sentiment change in a couple of months. Mega. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Wig said:

Guy I work with, rents a one bed newie slavebox in mega central London for however much 1200 or something insane I think he said maybe 1400 fck knows pick a figure basically

then he goes on to say it’s worth seven hundred and fifty grand - context from him was how fcking ridiculous is that price etc 

then he’s talking that he wants to BUY THIS YEAR I casually mentioned you should wait six months mate prices are on the way down in london

Few murmurs around the table from proud homeowners, he says something like yeah but they’ll just go back up again even more or some sort of stock response and that was that 

 

That was a couple of months ago, caught up with him again yesterday and I’m like mate London house prices are down three percent last month or whatever, that’ll be thirty percent in no time 

 

then he says yeah it needs to be sixty percent off! So I’m all like BRUTHA London is toast

 

Mega sentiment change in a couple of months. Mega. 

 

 

check out the video on this post to see how quickly a "fancy" city apartment with a view can from three quarters of million to zero in a blink of an eye xD

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RICS UK residential market survey January 2019 - Published 14 February 2019

Net prices balance -22%

https://www.rics.org/uk/news-insight/research/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/

 

UK House Price Index summary: December 2018 - Published 13 February 2019 - Next release 20 March 2019

HPI Annual 2.5%, Monthly 0.1%, 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018

 

Both figures continuing to trend lower. Historically, sustained negative RICS prices balance results in negative LR HPI.

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7 hours ago, Queasing said:

RICS UK residential market survey January 2019 - Published 14 February 2019

Net prices balance -22%

https://www.rics.org/uk/news-insight/research/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/

 

UK House Price Index summary: December 2018 - Published 13 February 2019 - Next release 20 March 2019

HPI Annual 2.5%, Monthly 0.1%, 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018

 

Both figures continuing to trend lower. Historically, sustained negative RICS prices balance results in negative LR HPI.

LSL Acadata for jan due out next week.Could be interesting

Dec 18 annual change was 0.6% and they'll be dropping a 0.8%

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Repossessions are down but I would imagine the lenders are holding off writing down the loan values.

Arrears and possessions

Trends covering arrears and possessions of property linked to first charge mortgages provided by members.

Latest Data - Q4 2018

Key data highlights:

    There were 4580 homeowner possessions in 2018, the lowest since 1980 when there were 3480 possessions. The number of outstanding homeowner mortgages increased from 6.2 million in 1980 to 9 million by the end of 2018.
    There were 77,610 homeowner mortgages in arrears of 2.5 per cent or more of the outstanding balance in the fourth quarter of 2018, 5 per cent fewer than in the same quarter of the previous year.
    There were 4,690 buy-to-let mortgages in arrears of 2.5 per cent or more of the outstanding balance in the fourth quarter of 2018, unchanged from in the same quarter of the previous year.
    1,130 homeowner mortgaged properties were taken into possession in the fourth quarter of 2018, 3 per cent fewer than in the same quarter of the previous year.
    540 buy-to-let mortgaged properties were taken into possession in the fourth quarter of 2018, 14 per cent fewer than in the same quarter of the previous year.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Thar she blows.London going all Sydney...

 

 

 

 

The LCPAca Residential Index is now available. It is based on every transaction for full market value recorded by HM Land Registry in England & Wales, including prices of properties bought with cash and new builds, as opposed to statistics based on asking prices, mortgage approvals, or selective samples. The index tracks residential property prices and transactions within England & Wales, Greater London and Prime Central London.

Click here to download the full report...
 
Headlines from Report: Regional Prices Continue to Fall

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON (PCL)


A weak start to the year
  • Average annual prices for January (excluding new build) in PCL now stand at £1,809,860.
  • Monthly prices are down by 2.4%.
  • Quarterly prices are down by 5.4%.
  • All transactions fall 15.6% over the year to 3,558, down 43% on 2013.
  • New build average prices now stand at £2,940,374
  • The new build premium for the year over existing stock is 74.4%.
  • Quarterly new build transactions fall by 76% to just 51.
  • Annual transactions are down 16.1%.
GREATER LONDON

Prices stagnate, transactions fall
  • Average prices in Greater London (excluding new build) for January now stand at £621,019.
  • Prices stagnate with monthly growth of 0.6% and quarterly growth of just 0.1%.
  • Annual prices rise by 0.6%, the weakest performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
  • All transactions fall by 5.2% across the year.
  • New build prices have increased 17.1% over the year and now stand at £675,557.
  • New build transactions, however, plummet by 19.0%.
ENGLAND AND WALES (EXCLUDING GREATER LONDON)

Monthly prices continue to fall
  • Average prices in England and Wales (excluding new build) see a fourth consecutive monthly fall to £259,442.
  • Monthly prices fall by 0.2% and quarterly prices fall 2.9%.
  • All transactions fall by 1.9% over the year and now stand at 798,296.
  • New build transactions now stand at 94,139, an annual increase of 3.9%.
  • New build prices stand at £301,294
  • They have seen an annual increase of 3.8%, resulting in a 15% premium over existing stock.
Click here to download the full report...

For top-line commentary, please read below

Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments:

Prime Central London

The bad news continues in Prime Central London (PCL) with price falls across the month, quarter and year. Average annual prices in January for Prime Central London now stand at £1,809,860. They have fallen 2.4% over the month and 5.4% over the quarter. 

Transactions in PCL remain at historically low levels and now stand at 3,558, a fall of 15.6% over the year. This is fewer than 69 a week. Harrods Estates is the latest agency to ‘rationalise its business’ by closing their branch on Kensington Church Street. 

With just under five weeks to go until the Brexit deadline, many investors are delaying any purchase until April, when there may at least be ‘a clear direction of travel’. However, there is a new momentum in the market as other investors see a moment of opportunity, before demand and sterling have a chance to strengthen.



Greater London

Average prices for Greater London in January stand at £621,019, showing monthly growth of 0.6% and nominal quarterly growth of 0.1%. Prices are lower than they were prior to the June 2017 General Election, as confidence continues to hamper the London market.

Transactions have fallen 27% since the introduction of the Additional Rate Stamp Duty (ARSD) in April 2016. The last year has seen a drop of 5.2% to 88,224.

Notwithstanding any decision on Brexit, this protracted period of uncertainty may well continue for 2019 and beyond. Having seen the time taken to negotiate the UK’s exit from the EU, it is likely that the transition period will represent an equally bumpy ride.

In contrast, new build prices have surged ahead showing annual growth of 17.1%. This has resulted in a 21.6% premium over older stock, the highest in almost two decades. Transactions, however, have seen a significant fall of 19.0% over the year.

There are now indications that these trends are reversing as developers are obliged to reduce asking prices to gain sufficient traction in the market place to generate sales.



England & Wales

Average prices for January in England and Wales (excluding Greater London) stand at £259,442. This represents a 0.2% fall in monthly prices and a drop of 2.9% over the quarter. Prices have now been in decline since September 2018. It appears that the uncertainty that has been so apparent in London for some time has now permeated to the rest of the UK. 

Annual transactions at 798,296 are now below the levels seen in 2014 and have fallen by 1.9% over the year.

The introduction of ARSD, in hindsight, seems to have been a tipping point for the UK housing market. With a flurry of transactions in the run up to April 2016 to ‘beat’ the new tax, there has been a steady decline ever since.

As Brexit uncertainty continues to roll on and the chance of a ‘No Deal’ exit still very much on the table, buyers are viewing any potential purchase as a risk. As property is, by and large, the most expensive purchase of their lives, they are preferring to wait and see, not only what happens on March 29th but also during the post-Brexit transition period. 

In contrast to London, the new build sector in England and Wales is showing a more robust performance, with both annual transactions and prices moderately up.

 
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LSL Acadata E&W HPI January 19
published 18th February 19

http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/

Monthly -0.2%

Annual -0.9%

"In January, the average house price fell by some £550, or -0.2%. This was the third month in succession that the average price has fallen, albeit by relatively small amounts – and now totalling a decline of some £1,000. "

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15 hours ago, Queasing said:

LSL Acadata E&W HPI January 19
published 18th February 19

http://www.acadata.co.uk/services/house-price-index/

Monthly -0.2%

Annual -0.9%

"In January, the average house price fell by some £550, or -0.2%. This was the third month in succession that the average price has fallen, albeit by relatively small amounts – and now totalling a decline of some £1,000. "

That's a good effort.Annual -0.9% and one of the two indices that uses Acadata

 

http://www.acadata.co.uk/assets/uploads/2019/02/LSL-Acadata-EW-HPI-Report-January-19.pdf

 

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42 minutes ago, Queasing said:

Nationwide HPI February 19
published 28th February 19

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2019/Feb_2019.pdf

Monthly -0.1%

Annual +0.4%

"“After almost grinding to a complete halt in January, annual house price growth remained subdued in February, with prices just 0.4% higher than the same time last year. "

Methinks the investment return on a pile of red bricks is worse than a pile of golden ones! :-)

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42 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Halifax HPI Feb 19..

 

 


Monthly +5.9% !!! WTF??

Lower volumes = higher data volatility.

It was -3% last month (revised from -2.9%) so this bounce is probably excessive, but not totally off-kilter.

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