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House Prices Indices


Lavalas

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Lavalas said:

This is a typical response from what Is ee this morning

http://www.cityam.com/274300/uk-house-prices-rise-halifax-hails-resilient-housing-market

'The value of UK homes rose 5.9 per cent month-to-month, Halifax added, seeing the average UK house price hit £236,800.

Measured on a quarterly basis, growth hit 1.8 per cent as a lack of homes on the market buoyed prices.

Unreliable indicator?

However, Howard Archer, chief economist to the EY ITem Club, said Halifax’s February jump was “completely off the radar” after Nationwide warned growth was at an anaemic 0.4 per cent.

“The Halifax house price measure has been particularly volatile in recent months and the sharp monthly movements have been out of kilter with other measures,” Archer added.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, agreed, calling Halifax’s jump “implausible”.

“We have little confidence in Halifax’s index as a reliable indicator of the housing market. Its extreme volatility … undermines its validity,” he added.

Lucy Pendleton, founder and director of independent estate agents James Pendleton, called the market volality “a ricocheting bullet”.

“At first glance this monthly surge could be a bout of pre-Brexit confidence but nothing has changed,” she added.

“The more likely answer is that in key areas low supply is squeezing those buyers who have a need, rather than just a desire, to move and just can’t put it off any longer.”

“There is no doubt that the shortage of supply is a significant factor in the uplift,” said Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former Rics residential chairman.'

 

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7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is a typical response from what Is ee this morning

http://www.cityam.com/274300/uk-house-prices-rise-halifax-hails-resilient-housing-market

'The value of UK homes rose 5.9 per cent month-to-month, Halifax added, seeing the average UK house price hit £236,800.

Measured on a quarterly basis, growth hit 1.8 per cent as a lack of homes on the market buoyed prices.

Unreliable indicator?

However, Howard Archer, chief economist to the EY ITem Club, said Halifax’s February jump was “completely off the radar” after Nationwide warned growth was at an anaemic 0.4 per cent.

“The Halifax house price measure has been particularly volatile in recent months and the sharp monthly movements have been out of kilter with other measures,” Archer added.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, agreed, calling Halifax’s jump “implausible”.

“We have little confidence in Halifax’s index as a reliable indicator of the housing market. Its extreme volatility … undermines its validity,” he added.

Lucy Pendleton, founder and director of independent estate agents James Pendleton, called the market volality “a ricocheting bullet”.

“At first glance this monthly surge could be a bout of pre-Brexit confidence but nothing has changed,” she added.

“The more likely answer is that in key areas low supply is squeezing those buyers who have a need, rather than just a desire, to move and just can’t put it off any longer.”

“There is no doubt that the shortage of supply is a significant factor in the uplift,” said Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former Rics residential chairman.'

 

“We have little confidence in Halifax’s index as a reliable indicator of the housing market. Its extreme volatility … undermines its validity,” he added.”

 

Pretty damning. The usual accusation is that bears only pay attention to the drops and label the rest as invalid but this is surely something more (or rather, less!). The only uncritical reporting I’ve seen was from Property118, which tells its own story.

https://www.property118.com/halifax-house-price-growth-2-8/

(don’t bother clicking the link, it’s really not worth the time/effort)

I agree with you. Acadata is the most useful, and the often sobering ONS.

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  • 2 weeks later...
sancho panza

LSL acadata reporting second consecutive month of negative annual house price growth at -0.5% Feb 2019

 

 

kensington and Chelsea down 35% yoy,Camde4n and Hammersmith down 15% yoy.South east down  1.7% yoy,London down 1.5% yoy,Wales up 3% yoy.....

 

Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadata and John Tindale, Acadata housing analyst comment:

House Prices February 2019 The question is where are house prices going now? In February, the average house price rose in the month by £1,363, or +0.5%. This was the third month in a row that the average price has increased, albeit at less than 0.75% over the three months. Indeed - as Figure 1 below shows - price movements over the last year have been relatively subdued, with the monthly change in the average price being less than ± 0.5% on eight occasions. O

 

Housing Transactions

In February 2019, there were an estimated 59,100 transactions – based on Land Registry counts for England & Wales – which is a -2% fall on our estimated January 2019 figure of 60,250 sales. However, seasonally a rise in sales volumes would be expected in this month, typically around +3.5%, so the decrease of -2% represents a -5.5% reduction in transactions on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The estimated 59,100 sales in February 2019 are at their lowest for this month since 2015. On the basis of our sales estimates for the latter three months of 2018, transactions for England & Wales in 2018 total some 876,250 sales, which are 3.5% down on 2017.

Turning to the monthly rates reported in February, the graph is dominated by the dramatic increase in prices reported by Halifax at +5.9%. Halifax makes no mention of this monthly rate in its press release, despite the fact this is the highest monthly rate recorded by them since the series began in January 1983. Halifax itself comments that “House price data on a quarterly basis provides the clearest indication of overall market trends, smoothing out the monthly volatility caused by the reduced number of monthly transactions used to calculate all house price indices.” This is especially true of a February index, which will be comparing prices between January and February, months with the lowest number of housing transactions in the year. For the record, the latest Halifax figures show a quarterly price rise of +1.8%. The other three indices which have published in February show near accord in their monthly figures, ranging from Rightmove, at +0.7%, with LSL Acadata at +0.5%, while Nationwide is the only index to have a negative monthly rate of -0.1%

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sancho panza
On 07/03/2019 at 19:31, Lavalas said:

“We have little confidence in Halifax’s index as a reliable indicator of the housing market. Its extreme volatility … undermines its validity,” he added.”

 

Pretty damning. The usual accusation is that bears only pay attention to the drops and label the rest as invalid but this is surely something more (or rather, less!). The only uncritical reporting I’ve seen was from Property118, which tells its own story.

https://www.property118.com/halifax-house-price-growth-2-8/

(don’t bother clicking the link, it’s really not worth the time/effort)

 

I agree with you. Acadata is the most useful, and the often sobering ONS.

Below is the LSL acadata view on haliwide

Be nice if sdomeone could load the graphs and ttables for LSL.Some eye watering lsoses in Londinium.

 

Turning to the monthly rates reported in February, the graph is dominated by the dramatic increase in prices reported by Halifax at +5.9%. Halifax makes no mention of this monthly rate in its press release, despite the fact this is the highest monthly rate recorded by them since the series began in January 1983. Halifax itself comments that “House price data on a quarterly basis provides the clearest indication of overall market trends, smoothing out the monthly volatility caused by the reduced number of monthly transactions used to calculate all house price indices.” This is especially true of a February index, which will be comparing prices between January and February, months with the lowest number of housing transactions in the year. For the record, the latest Halifax figures show a quarterly price rise of +1.8%. The other three indices which have published in February show near accord in their monthly figures, ranging from Rightmove, at +0.7%, with LSL Acadata at +0.5%, while Nationwide is the only index to have a negative monthly rate of -0.1%

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Headline statistics for January 2019
the average price of a property in the UK was
£228,147

the annual price change for a property in the UK was
1.7%

the monthly price change for a property in the UK was
-0.8%

the monthly index figure (January 2015 = 100) for the UK was
119.7

UK house prices grew by 1.7% in the year to January 2019, down from 2.2% in the year to December 2018. This is the lowest annual growth for the UK since June 2013, when house prices increased by 1.5%.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-january-2019/uk-house-price-index-summary-january-2019

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Finally some good news! Monthly "growth" heading to negative!

 

UK house prices grew by 0.6% in the year to February 2019, down from 1.7% in the year to January 2019. This is the lowest annual growth for the UK since September 2012, when house prices increased by 0.4%.

Headline statistics for February 2019
the average price of a property in the UK was
£226,234

the annual price change for a property in the UK was
0.6%

the monthly price change for a property in the UK was
-0.8%

the monthly index figure (January 2015 = 100) for the UK was
118.7

Country and government office region Price Monthly change Annual change
England £242,964 -0.6% 0.4%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 4 - 2018) £136,669 1.3% 5.5%
Scotland £145,762 -3.1% -0.2%
Wales £159,559 0.2% 4.1%
East Midlands £190,199 -0.5% 1.6%
East of England £290,137 0.5% 0.6%
London £459,800 -2.0% -3.8%
North East £125,397 -0.4% -0.8%
North West £163,758 1.3% 4.0%
South East £315,700 -1.7% -1.8%
South West £253,730 -0.4% 1.2%
West Midlands £196,152 0.4% 2.9%
Yorkshire and The Humber £155,685 -2.5% 0.0%

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-february-2019/uk-house-price-index-summary-february-2019

 

 

 

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London's -4% is intresting.

Of course there'll be a lot of variation. Maybe some places have gone up and some people have lost a fortune.

But the current London LTV is way north of 15, median income, and that income is based on 2x income, so ~30x LTE.

That 4% fall is equivalent to  meaning that 4% loss is equivalent to over a years earnings.

Before, HPI ran away from peoples earnings.

Now, HP disinflation will run far ahead of peoples earnings.

Where as before houses earnt more than someone could earn,.

Now they risk loosing more than someone could earn in their working lifetime.

Brutal.

 

 

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Bobthebuilder

Anecdotal,

I do a lot of landlords gas safety certificates. Agents and landlords are increasingly telling me voids are more common and the market is getting a bit tough.

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25 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Anecdotal,

I do a lot of landlords gas safety certificates. Agents and landlords are increasingly telling me voids are more common and the market is getting a bit tough.

Which area if you don't mind?

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33 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Which area if you don't mind?

I visit a fair few towns on a regular basis.

All of them have noticeable voids i.e. same place still To Let 2 months later.

20 years ago, most towns only hada handful of private rents.

IN some palces well over 50% of the sales i nthe last 20 years have bee to IO BTLers.

I can stand on some streets and see 5 To Let signs.

Its that bad,. Or good. Dependign on your view.

Keep in mind that 1 months rent is more than 8% loss on the years rent. Its more as you have to pay c tax.

If rentals are going to 2-3 months void, which has long seemed the cae  then, people who've took on places yielding ~3% are going to need ~5 years rent to recover the loss yield.

Of course, what will happen is that the voids will fall turn up i nthe LL not paying the mortgage, which will increase the banks NPLs, which will result i nthe risk being increased for rentals which will increase LL APR, which will give more NPLS, which will raise the APR, whcih will ...etc.

Again, banks should have never lent money to LL who could not cover the mortgage payments from their own income.

 

 

 

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Bobthebuilder
46 minutes ago, spygirl 🏆 said:

I visit a fair few towns on a regular basis.

All of them have noticeable voids i.e. same place still To Let 2 months later.

20 years ago, most towns only hada handful of private rents.

IN some palces well over 50% of the sales i nthe last 20 years have bee to IO BTLers.

I can stand on some streets and see 5 To Let signs.

Its that bad,. Or good. Dependign on your view.

Keep in mind that 1 months rent is more than 8% loss on the years rent. Its more as you have to pay c tax.

If rentals are going to 2-3 months void, which has long seemed the cae  then, people who've took on places yielding ~3% are going to need ~5 years rent to recover the loss yield.

Of course, what will happen is that the voids will fall turn up i nthe LL not paying the mortgage, which will increase the banks NPLs, which will result i nthe risk being increased for rentals which will increase LL APR, which will give more NPLS, which will raise the APR, whcih will ...etc.

Again, banks should have never lent money to LL who could not cover the mortgage payments from their own income.

 

 

 

Thread cross over, almost all the places i go to are EEs with the misses at home with kids.

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42 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thread cross over, almost all the places i go to are EEs with the misses at home with kids.

Yeah.

I walked by a few today, sat on foorsteps chattering away. Id guess balkan.

That was 3 seperate doorsteps in 500m. Again 10m -+2m.

 

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Bobthebuilder
57 minutes ago, spygirl 🏆 said:

Yeah.

I walked by a few today, sat on foorsteps chattering away. Id guess balkan.

That was 3 seperate doorsteps in 500m. Again 10m -+2m.

 

I can easily imagine its 10M countrywide, thats a fuck load of people.

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Green Devil
On 31/03/2019 at 04:45, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"London property market suffers WORST rate of DECLINE in a decade"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-property-market-suffers-worst-rate-decline-decade-081638416.html

AND...this is from the FOREVER HPI Muppets Nationwide ...so things MUST be very BAD...NICE!xD

A cryptic was of saying 

"we need more props" 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Halifax index is in a right mess. Not even going to bother reporting it now. Unless it starts to show huge drop OBVIOUSLY.

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11 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Halifax index is in a right mess. Not even going to bother reporting it now. Unless it starts to show huge drop OBVIOUSLY.

Agreed. Just saw this posted on Twitter. Halifax is all over the f'ing place. I wouldn't be suprised if they produce their figures using a random number generator :D

spacer.png

Damn, you made me make my first ever post

[Slides back into the shadows :ph34r:]

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One percent
Just now, S Brule said:

Agreed. Just saw this posted on Twitter. Halifax is all over the f'ing place. I wouldn't be suprised if they produce their figures using a random number generator :D

spacer.png

Damn, you made me make my first ever post

[Slides back into the shadows :ph34r:]

Welcome. :)

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sancho panza

LSL Acadata -0.1% Annual 0.2%

 

Worth noting is that the places transactions are dropping the most are where the prices are dropping the most.Dow theorists be done.

image.thumb.png.781499560fc000e2c28688f289ed2267.png

image.png.e417df89e6ec4e38ac62e2a72727da8e.png

image.thumb.png.2ee563f3b856f5c33b96bf71f898309e.png

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Agent ZigZag

Is this a bottom or a dead cats bounce in Kensington and Chelsea and westminster. Ealing yr on yr has had a great bounce 

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Is this a bottom or a dead cats bounce in Kensington and Chelsea and westminster. Ealing yr on yr has had a great bounce 

I think the volume is poor in some bits of London,RM has all of it in their market trends section.

So I'm not sure how much you can read into the low volume Boroughs,and I'm not sure which is low volume either off the top of my head.

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