House Prices Indices

[Agent ZigZag]

I must admit im still confused. Is the underlying trend still down. Are we at an inflection point. Did Brexit spook buyers that now it has been kicked into the long grass confidence is slowly returning??????

[sancho panza]

25 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I must admit im still confused. Is the underlying trend still down. Are we at an inflection point. Did Brexit spook buyers that now it has been kicked into the long grass confidence is slowly returning??????

The areas that led on the way up,are leading the way down-Londinium/South East.

Volume in said areas is also dropping which means the trend isn't confirmed with higher volume-yet.....

To see the downturn in those areas spread out into the regions I suspect we'd need to see volume mov up on lower prices in the ot moeny areas.

Brexit has little to do with what; going on I suspect.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-prices-show-biggest-075137917.html

Halifax said prices rose 0.5% on the month in May, in contrast to predictions of a fall, and April's monthly house price growth was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1%.

"The overall message is one of stability," Halifax managing director Russell Galley said.

MORE BULLSH*T from Halifax Halihoax !

[A_P]

emigration from the SE pushing up everywhere else? Plus I get the impression there is a bit of pent up demand from people that were holding out for the brexit aploclypse/cliff edge that never materialised

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

34 minutes ago, A_P said:

emigration from the SE pushing up everywhere else? Plus I get the impression there is a bit of pent up demand from people that were holding out for the brexit aploclypse/cliff edge that never materialised

I do NOT believe the above...there is a house that is just within my budget in a stunning area of the SW its been on the market for 2 months at: £265K

Just checked RM it was REDUCED 5 days ago to £250K !

I going to see it next week, and if i like it ...and can get a further £10K reduction, i'll probaly go for it!

[A_P]

4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I do NOT believe the above...there is a house that is just within my budget in a stunning area of the SW its been on the market for 2 months at: £265K

Just checked RM it was REDUCED 5 days ago to £250K !

I going to see it next week, and if i like it ...and can get a further £10K reduction, i'll probaly go for it!

Don't look at Manchester then 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

31 minutes ago, A_P said:

Don't look at Manchester then 

NO chance of me EVER moving there!

The reason i din't state the ' stunning area of the SW ' ..is cos its genrally an unkonwn area.

i reseached this area 2 years ago, and i ain't telling on an open forum!

[Bobthebuilder]

20 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

NO chance of me EVER moving there!

The reason i din't state the ' stunning area of the SW ' ..is cos its genrally an unkonwn area.

i reseached this area 2 years ago, and i ain't telling on an open forum!

Ah, south Somerset then.

[A_P]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

NO chance of me EVER moving there!

The reason i din't state the ' stunning area of the SW ' ..is cos its genrally an unkonwn area.

i reseached this area 2 years ago, and i ain't telling on an open forum!

It was in relation to outsiders, who have been pushing the prices up rather than recommending you move up there  

[sancho panza]

LCP Acadata out.London rising again BUT on falling vol(-14% yoy-ouch!)

https://www.londoncentralportfolio.com/Hidden-Files/LCP/Newsletter/May LCP Aca Resi Index.pdf

Prime Central London (PCL)
Market gathers momentum

• Average annual prices in May (excluding new build) in PCL now stand at £1,913,040, an annual rise of 8.2%.
• Prices rise 13% over the quarter but fall back in May.
• Annual transactions stand at a low of 3,282, a fall of 14.2%.
• Quarterly transactions, however, surge by 37.9%.
• New build^† average prices rise to £3,189,795, a 54.5% premium over existing stock.
• New build transactions stand at just 538, an annual fall of 24.1%.

Greater London
Some signs for optimism

• Average prices in Greater London (excluding new build) now stand at £628,283.
• This is a monthly rise of 1.7%.
• Annual prices increase by 2.5%.
• Annual transactions fall by 3.2% to just 86,338, 25.6% lower than at the EU Referendum in June 2016.
• New build^† prices now stand at £764,912, representing a 20.0% premium over existing stock and an annual increase of 9.8%
• However, new build transactions are falling much faster than existing stock at 14.8% annually, to 12,584.

England and Wales (Excluding Greater London)
Market holds steady for now

• Average prices in England and Wales (excluding new build) stand at £254,839.
• Monthly prices rise by 0.1% but quarterly prices fall 1.3%.
• Annual transactions at 797,460 hold steady with a fall of just 0.9%.
• New build^† prices stand at £303,646, an annual rise of 4.3%, representing a 15.1% premium over existing stock.
• New build annual transactions stand at 97,931, an annual rise of 5.2%.
• Quarterly new build transactions, however, plummet by 9.9% and prices fall 0.5%.

Click here to download the full report...

For top-line commentary, please see below

Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments:
Prime Central London

Annual transactions in Prime Central London (PCL) in May stand at just 3,282, a drop of 14.2% annually, with just 63 sales per week. Whilst this is an almost 40% fall on pre-Referendum levels, the momentum seen since the beginning of the year continues, with quarterly sales rising by 37.9%, the largest increase in activity for over two years.

Average annual prices reached a record high of £1,913,040. Quarterly prices also increased by 13%, pushed up by the sale of several high-value properties in March and April, but growth subsequently flatlined in May.

The “wait and see” attitude, endemic since the EU Referendum in 2016, appeared to start turning ahead of the Brexit deadline of March 29^th, with investors wanting to capitalise on weak sterling and discounted prices.

Whilst the extension of the deadline appeared to have initially dampened investors’ enthusiasm, there has been a notable change in market sentiment and several estate agents are reporting improved trading conditions. It would appear investors are no longer prepared to sit on the side-lines whilst the UK makes up its mind.

Historically, the PCL market has bounced back swiftly when sentiment improves, so the window of opportunity to cut a good deal at rock bottom prices could well be a small one.


Greater London

Average prices in Greater London for May reach a record high of £628,283. This represents a rise of 1.7% over the month and an increase of 3.2% over the quarter, despite modest growth annually of 2.5%.

Transactions over the last quarter have also seen an improvement with a rise of 13.8%. However, on an annual basis the total volume of sales stands at 86,338, which is a fall of 3.2%.

Greater London is into its fifth year of falling transactions, with a total drop of 27.4% since 2014. Higher purchase costs, political uncertainty and short-sighted policies aimed at winning easy votes continue to hamper recovery.

The quarterly figures do offer some encouragement, but this could well be due to the ‘false’ Brexit deadline of 29^th March, as buyers sought to pre-empt an anticipated market rally post this date.

With the Conservative leadership contest ongoing and the prospect of a hard Brexit, what the rest of the year will bring and its impact on the housing market is hard to predict. Nevertheless, it appears that investors, if not domestic home buyers, are increasingly unwilling to wait.


England & Wales (excluding Greater London)

Average prices in England and Wales (excluding Greater London) stand at £254,839 for May. This represents a quarterly fall of 1.3% and annual growth of just 3.5%, the lowest since 2013.

Annual transactions in England & Wales have fallen by 0.9% to 797,460. However, as with London, they have seen the same quarterly spike, with a rise of 10.4%.

Whether we will see a further fall in transactions of the same magnitude already seen in London of almost 30%, is difficult to predict. However, they have been in steady decline since the EU Referendum.

Overall, England and Wales has turned in a more robust performance than the capital in recent times. The high purchase costs that have hit London hardest have not been felt as acutely and with a smaller proportion of investors, transactions have been more resilient.

However, any economic fall-out from Brexit is likely to have a far greater impact in England and Wales, which is primarily a domestic market, than in London, where the uncertainty has already been factored in.
 

Click here to download the full report...

[sancho panza]

LCP.London up,E&W  transactions falling at fastest rate since 08

Prime Central London (PCL)
Transactions surge over the quarter

• Average annual prices in June (excluding new build) in PCL remain stable versus 2018, standing at £1,878,004.
• Prices rise 2.7% over the quarter.
• Annual transactions fall by 13.1% and stand at 3,244, still lower than during the Global Financial Crisis.
• However, quarterly transactions show an increase of 23% to 890.
• New build^† average prices rise to £3,419,389, a premium over existing stock of 54.5%, down from 68.2%.
• Annual new build transactions stand at just 455, a fall of 48% from two years ago.

Greater London
Market shows signs of improvement

• Average prices in Greater London (excluding new build) now stand at £624,241
• This is a monthly rise of 1.7%, the strongest performance over the year.
• Annual prices increase by 1%.
• Annual transactions fall by 4.2% to just 84,634, 27.1% lower than at the EU Referendum in June 2016.
• Quarterly transactions, however, increase by 14.2%
• New build^† prices now stand at £745,598, an annual increase of 6.3% and an 18.3% premium over old stock.
• However, new build transactions continue to plummet to 12,051, a fall of 17.5%.

England and Wales (Excluding Greater London)
Prices stagnate and transactions fall at fastest rate since 2008

• Average prices in England and Wales (excluding new build) stand at £255,050.
• Monthly prices rise by 0.9%
• Annual price growth is almost static at 0.3%, the weakest performance since 2011.
• Annual transactions fall 2.5% to 781,005, their lowest level since 2013.
• Bucking the trend, new build^† annual average prices rise 4.4% to £303,977, a 15.3% premium over existing stock.
• New build annual transactions stand at 98,563, an annual rise of 5.8%.

[crashmonitor]

 

This chart says it all, we are at 2010 levels of prices on the Nationwide measure ( inflation adjusted) but take out the boomlet/ bustlet of Oxbridge and London and that line since 2010 would be as flat as a pancake north of Kettering and West of Basingstoke.

One reason I gave up commentating on the Market on TOS...ten years of nothing of note/ watching paint dry.

[sancho panza]

LSL Acadata up 0.7% yoy

 

Interesting to see 24/33 London Borughs are falling yoy. Top faller's

1) City of Westminster -17.5%

2) City of London -15%

3) Hammersmith and Fulham -13.3%

4)Merton -11.6%

5) Lambeth -17.2%

6)Tower hamlets -13.9%

7) Newham, -11.7%.

 

All other falling boroughs under -10%

https://lsl-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/lslps/uploads/media_file/EW-House-Price-Index-June-2019.pdf

 

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

 

Places i was looking at in Hants/Dorset are up 50-100% from 2010 prices.

Are the prices asking prices or actual prices achieved?

At the moment I'm noticing lots of reductions in asking prices.

[spunko]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7378649/Building-new-homes-WONT-solve-Britains-housing-crisis.html

I've been saying this for years, to be honest. 

[spunko]

11 hours ago, Tdog said:

TBTP know this. Even the woman (name i forget) who done the report that the Tory party have used for the last 9 years, where it stated the nation needed to build more to sort the housing market out, now admits its a load of crap.

The housing shortage propaanda is used is pretty much every western nation with unaffordable housing, it's Orwellian on a global scale.

Edit - Kate Barker she is mentioned in the article.

 

Maybe, but a lot of people on here and previously on HPC refuse to believe it. I think it's pretty sound.

[crashmonitor]

23 hours ago, Tdog said:

Im oop North at the moment and prices are up 20% in the area i'm living over the last 18 months.

Places i was looking at in Hants/Dorset are up 50-100% from 2010 prices.

The Market has done better from 2010 to 2019 than from 2005 to 2010. But looking at the last 14 years as a whole things are down in real terms in my area, Derbyshire.

We might be moving, subject to it going through. The house is way short of even CPI from the last sale in 2005 and they have rewired, new double glazing, both bathrooms and kitchen replaced, new roof, totally stripped and redecorated.

So really the damage was done by Brown tripling prices in just eight years to 2005. The house would have gained 30% in the last 14 years in nominal terms should the sale go through. Brown 200% in 8 years, since 2005  just 30% in spite of improvements.

The adjustment from Brown's lunacy could takes many decades.

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

The Market has done better from 2010 to 2019 than from 2005 to 2010. But looking at the last 14 years as a whole things are down in real terms in my area, Derbyshire.

We might be moving, subject to it going through. The house is way short of even CPI from the last sale in 2005 and they have rewired, new double glazing, both bathrooms and kitchen replaced, new roof, totally stripped and redecorated.

So really the damage was done by Brown tripling prices in just eight years to 2005. The house would have gained 30% in the last 14 years in nominal terms should the sale go through. Brown 200% in 8 years, since 2005  just 30% in spite of improvements.

The adjustment from Brown's lunacy could takes many decades.

Same.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=scarborough&all=1

Really no change since 2004.

In real terms, they are ~30% down.

Another 10 years like this and the nominal values will be back to 1998, so no nominal increase in over 30 years.

 

6 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

The Market has done better from 2010 to 2019 than from 2005 to 2010. But looking at the last 14 years as a whole things are down in real terms in my area, Derbyshire.

We might be moving, subject to it going through. The house is way short of even CPI from the last sale in 2005 and they have rewired, new double glazing, both bathrooms and kitchen replaced, new roof, totally stripped and redecorated.

So really the damage was done by Brown tripling prices in just eight years to 2005. The house would have gained 30% in the last 14 years in nominal terms should the sale go through. Brown 200% in 8 years, since 2005  just 30% in spite of improvements.

The adjustment from Brown's lunacy could takes many decades.

10 more years.

We are 10 years in.

All for Brown 'miracle' 2002-> 2007. 5 years.

More damage than WW2.

 

 

[spygirl]

42 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Yes Browns bubble had priced many out by  say 2001 hence the rise of HPC, but it was assisted by Majors govt setting the scene for BTL mortgages to explode in 1996.

They're all complicit though, the whole fucken lot of the LIBLABCON ... cunts are only interested in gender issues and fake racism, monetary policy is too complex for their self serving simple Oxbridge minds.

BTL mortgages did not exist, in any real number, until 2001ish.

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/consultation-on-financial-policy-committee-powers-of-direction-in-the-buy-to-let-market/financial-policy-committee-powers-of-direction-in-the-buy-to-let-market

Dweeling by private rental/OO

The very thin red number in 99 will have been down to old style LL mortgages.

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Tdog said:

Majors govt set the scene for them.

How?

 

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, Tdog said:

https://www.google.com/search?q=ast+housing+act+1996&rlz=1C1CHBF_enGB852GB852&oq=ast+housing+act+1996+&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.8658j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

Bulk of that was in 1988.

The 86 were just tweaks.

Neither change had any direct affect on UK rentals.

The changes that did occur were that idiot Brown's financial changes, where he removed oversight of he banks - and mainyl ex BS from the Boe in 1998.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/7893587/Tripartite-financial-regulation-was-Gordon-Browns-folly.html

Noone was supervision of the banks, slapping down on their daft behaviour.

UK banks n BS were allowed to classify IO BTL, which is nothign more than non amortising commercial bridging loan, as the same risk as an OOO residential mortgage.

Basically, as FTB dropped off in the early 2000s, ARLA and the daft banks 'created' IO BTL.

And thats were the UKs mess comes from - soley Brown n Balls n the banks.

 

 

 

[sancho panza]

LCP Acadata-transactions/prices hovering

Prime Central London (PCL)
Buyer momentum continues to build

• Average annual prices in July (excl. new build) show modest growth of 1.5% vs. 2018, standing at £1,909,015.
• However, monthly and quarterly prices have shown falls.
• Annual transactions now stand at 3,242. This represents a fall of 5%, the smallest decline since 2014.
• Quarterly transactions show an increase of 26.7%.
• New build† average prices rise annually by 9.3% to £3,425,886.
• Annual new build transactions stand at just 417, a fall of 52% from two years ago.

Greater London
Market continues to rally

• Average prices in July (excl. new build) now stand at £644,746.
• This is a monthly rise of 3.1%, the strongest monthly performance since 2014.
• Annual prices increase by 1.9%, outperforming 2018.
• The fall in annual transactions has slowed to just 1.7%, to 85,701.
• Quarterly transactions have surged by 33.4%.
• New build† prices now stand at £720,448, an annual increase of 2.9% and a 17.4% premium over older stock.
• However, new build transactions continue to plummet with an annual fall of 20.1% to 11,591

England and Wales (Excluding Greater London)
Signs of a pick up

• Average prices for July in England and Wales (excl. new build) are £263,145.
• Monthly prices rise by 2.2%.
• Annual price growth remains almost static at 0.8%, the weakest performance since 2011.
• Annual transactions increase by 2.2% to reach 807,478 due to a surge in quarterly sales, reversing the fall in 2018.
• New build† annual average prices rise 4.9% to £308,411, a 15.8% premium over existing stock.
• New build annual transactions continue to increase to 98,922, rising to 12.6% of all sales.

Click here to download the full report...
For top-line commentary, please see below

Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments:
Prime Central London

July data for Prime Central London (PCL) continues to show a slightly more encouraging picture.

Annual prices increased overall by 1.5% vs. 2018 to £1,909,015, although prices declined 3.3% over the quarter.

Annual transactions to July stand at 3,242, down to just 62 sales per week. This is fewer than the lowest point in the Global Financial Crisis.

There are indications however, that the fall in transactions is bottoming out. With a drop of just 5% over the year, this is the lowest fall since 2014. This has been buoyed by a surge in sales over the last quarter, reflecting the flurry of activity prior to the original Brexit deadline of March 29th.

An increase in activity normally presages price growth, although investors may hold back again to see if sterling weakens further, with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

Greater London

The Greater London market also shows signs of improvement in July.

Average prices for July stand at £644,746. Representing annual growth of 1.9%, this is a marked improvement over 2018. Monthly growth of 3.1% is the strongest seen since 2014.

On an annual basis, sales fell by just 1.7% to 85,701, which is the lowest rate of decline since 2014, when they peaked at 118,872. Quarterly transactions have risen by one third, following the trend seen in PCL.

Whilst these signs of recovery are good news for a market which has been languishing, greater political and economic certainty will, without doubt, reinforce this. At the moment, this appears to be in the balance.

Developers will certainly be watching carefully, having faced a difficult year, with annual sales down over 20%.

England & Wales (excluding Greater London)

The housing market in England and Wales (excl. Greater London) shows a more positive turn in July, following some time in the doldrums.

Average prices have reached £263,145 in July, a very strong monthly increase of 2.2%. This has brought annual growth into positive territory of 0.8%, albeit it is still the lowest pace of growth since 2011.

Underlying this potential rally is the marked increase in transactions, which are up 30.8% over the quarter, reflecting the upturn seen in Greater London and PCL.

This has resulted in annual sales exceeding 2018 by 2.2%, after two years of falls. Nevertheless, transactions are running at almost 27% below the level seen pre-GFC in 2007 which must be a matter of concern for the government’s housing agenda.

On an upbeat note, annual new build sales have increased by 5.7%, reaching 98,922 and maintaining record heights.

[BearyBear]

Halifax House Price Index for Sep 2019

£232,574 Average price  
-0.4% Monthly change  
+0.4% Quarterly change 
+1.1% Annual change

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/September-2019-House-Price-Index.pdf

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

Halifax House Price Index for Sep 2019

£232,574 Average price  
-0.4% Monthly change  
+0.4% Quarterly change 
+1.1% Annual change

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/September-2019-House-Price-Index.pdf

Not clearing then.

No liquidity.

 

[sancho panza]

LCP Acadata

Worth noting the collapse in transactions of new builds in the capital

Prime Central London -61.4%

Greater Lond -24.9%

 

https://www.londoncentralportfolio.com/Hidden-Files/LCP/PR/LCPAca Resi Index/LCPAca-Sept-2019-Final.pdf

Prime Central London   Prime Central London: Spring Surge Peters Out Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments on the September LCPAca Residential Index The price rally in prime central London seen in the Spring, around a hotly anticipated Brexit resolution, seems to have petered out. Average prices for existing stock declined 0.6% in September to £1,788,370. This is on top of a lacklustre annual performance showing a 1.8% fall in prices.  Annual transactions have also fallen by a further 8.3% to just 3,274, the lowest level ever recorded. However, there has been a more recent uptick with a monthly increase of 3.5%.  Whilst an increase in sales normally presages price rises, the continued uncertainty around the UK’s exit from the EU and the prospect of another General Election, may delay any potential upturn.  New build average prices have increased by 21.3% over the year to £3,140,485, reflecting the sales of some high-end developments. This represents a premium of 75.6% over existing stock. However, annual transactions have fallen by over 61% and new build currently represents only 8.5% of the total market.  Click here to download the full report

Greater London   Greater London: Prices Creep Up On Old Stock But New Build Struggles Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments on the September LCPAca Residential Index The average monthly price in Greater London for existing stock increased by 1% in September, reaching £618,772. This has contributed to a modest 2.3% uplift over the year, following a period of zero growth.  Annual transactions to September amounted to 83,959, a fall of 4.3% on the previous year. This reflects a continuing downward trend since a spike of 122,521 prior to the April 2016’s Higher Rate Additional Duty (HRAD) on second homes and buy to let properties. Nevertheless, for the third month running there has been an uptick in transactions with September seeing 0.9% growth.  This more positive news for transactions and prices may be short-lived as parliament continues to kick the Brexit can down the road.  There is little doubt that the Brexit fiasco has taken its toll on the new build market, as well successive tax increases and over supply. In September, transactions fell by 4.3%, contributing to an annual fall of almost 25%. Premium pricing, currently 15.3% over existing stock, is also inhibiting market liquidity.  Click here to download the full report

England & Wales (Excluding Greater London)   England & Wales: Market Holding Tight Naomi Heaton, CEO of LCP, comments on the September LCPAca Residential Index Average prices in England and Wales (excluding Greater London) for existing stock increased by just 0.6% in September to £259,242. This has contributed to a lacklustre annual increase of 1.7%, adding to the picture of a generally stagnating market.  Transactions have plateaued too, with an annual increase of just 0.2%. Nevertheless, September  does consolidate a more recent upward trend, as seen in Greater London, with a modest increase of 1.2%. Generally, transactions in England and Wales have withstood the political maelstrom of the last three years, with only modest falls, faring far better than the Capital. The new build market is also holding up considerably better than in Greater London, with an increase of 5.4% in annual prices and 4% in transactions. Again it is questionable how sustainable this will be, with a price premium over existing stock now close to 18% and more recent monthly falls in transactions. Click here to download the full report

ENDS