House Prices Indices

[BearyBear]

Nationwide HPI

• Annual house price growth remained subdued at 0.8%
• 0.5% rise month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal factors

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2019/Nov_2019.pdf

“Annual house price growth remained below 1% for the 12 th month in a row in November, at 0.8%, though this was the strongest outturn since April. “Indicators of UK economic activity have been fairly volatile in recent quarters, but the underlying pace of growth appears to have slowed as a result of weaker global growth and an intensification of Brexit uncertainty. To date, the slowdown has largely centred on business investment, while household spending has been more resilient.

[MrXxxx]

So when do people think the property market is going to bottom out in the UK?...

...my reckoning is mid cycle about 2023, as we will have a little flurry post election/Brexit resolution (either way) in 2020 to satisfy the markets current frustration/stagnation, and then prices will slowly continue to drop as inflation and interest rates rise up to 2022; most of the Govt money for property market props will be diverted elsewhere for the promise infrastructure development.

After this prices may drop a little more rapidly for a year or so as IR bite, and then stabilise for a period before climbing towards the end of the cycle as benefits from the infrastructure investment follow through.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

So when do people think the property market is going to bottom out in the UK?...

...my reckoning is mid cycle about 2023, as we will have a little flurry post election/Brexit resolution (either way) in 2020 to satisfy the markets current frustration/stagnation, and then prices will slowly continue to drop as inflation and interest rates rise up to 2022; most of the Govt money for property market props will be diverted elsewhere for the promise infrastructure development.

After this prices may drop a little more rapidly for a year or so as IR bite, and then stabilise for a period before climbing towards the end of the cycle as benefits from the infrastructure investment follow through.

3 years!!!!!!

Property will fall for the next 20 years.

Again, I can point to a large number of Norther towns where property has basically been static for ~15 years.

ZIRP is letting people hold onto property for longer. But MMR is stopping it transecting at prices above ~2004ish.

Combine that with a massie structural change in demographics. Toast.

The same cases are now in London?Se - loss of well paying obs, limited credit.

 

[Funn3r]

Mid-sized Redrow development on my way to work, took ages to build and completed about 3 months ago. Don't seem to be selling at all. Giant banner across show house railings "buy a new home from £167 a week" has just been changed to £156 a week. 

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

Mid-sized Redrow development on my way to work, took ages to build and completed about 3 months ago. Don't seem to be selling at all. Giant banner across show house railings "buy a new home from £167 a week" has just been changed to £156 a week. 

There appears to be a massive go slow on a lot of development I pass in my travelling.

Stuff that was put up in Spring and basically seem to have been left, not weather proof since summer.

Id have expect the hosues to be roofed and sealed within a month.

I would say theres deffo something going on i.e. massive cash preservation.

[Chewing Grass]

This might go part of the way to an answer.

Somehow, despite politicians knee-jerking UK Construction Co into building shit loads of shitty houses and even shittier flats they don't seem to be selling.

Methinks that yet again they have fucked up for the sake of sound-bites and pleasing pressure groups.

Bit like strong-arming Lloyds to buy the complete fuck-up known as the Halifax.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/847287/UK_Tables_Nov_2019__cir_.xlsx

If only the new-build sales figures were split out.

[spygirl]

13 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

This might go part of the way to an answer.

Somehow, despite politicians knee-jerking UK Construction Co into building shit loads of shitty houses and even shittier flats they don't seem to be selling.

Methinks that yet again they have fucked up for the sake of sound-bites and pleasing pressure groups.

Bit like strong-arming Lloyds to buy the complete fuck-up known as the Halifax.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/847287/UK_Tables_Nov_2019__cir_.xlsx

If only the new-build sales figures were split out.

Less the Pols BS, more the builders shit quality.

 

[kibuc]

On 29/11/2019 at 15:47, Chewing Grass said:

 

 

How does one "seasonally adjust" annual figures?

[dgul]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

How does one "seasonally adjust" annual figures?

And how come, over a timescale of 15 years or so, the sum of the seasonally adjusted figures don't match the raw figures?

[sancho panza]

On 07/12/2019 at 19:47, kibuc said:

How does one "seasonally adjust" annual figures?

I think the monthlies are seasonally adjsuted then they tally them up.

On 07/12/2019 at 21:32, dgul said:

And how come, over a timescale of 15 years or so, the sum of the seasonally adjusted figures don't match the raw figures?

Super question.

[BearyBear]

UK HPI October 2019

the average price of a property in the UK was
£232,944

the annual price change for a property in the UK was
0.7%

the monthly price change for a property in the UK was
-0.7%

the monthly index figure (January 2015 = 100) for the UK was
122.2

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-october-2019/uk-house-price-index-summary-october-2019

[BearyBear]

Halifax HPI m/m 1.7% UP in December

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: “Average house prices rose by 4% over 2019, at the top of our predicted range of 2% to 4% growth for the year. This was driven by a monthly gain of 1.7% in December which was the biggest monthly increase of 2019, pushing up the year-on-year growth rate and reflecting that December 2018 was a particularly weak month. “Looking ahead, we expect uncertainty in the economy to ease somewhat in 2020, which should see transaction volumes increase and further price growth made possible by an improvement in households’ real incomes. “Longer-term issues such as the shortage of homes for sale and low levels of house-building will continue to limit supply, while the ongoing challenges faced by prospective buyers in raising deposits will serve to constrain demand. As a result, we expect a modest pace of gains to continue into next year.”

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/December-2019-House-Price-Index.pdf

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, Tdog said:

The old shortage of supply line.

In the late 90s and 00s Spain , ROI and the USA were building circa 3 times the amount the UK builds per capita and prices trebled/quadrupled in a decade.

The most important supply is that of central bankers and politicians willing to do whatever they can to make sure house prices stay unafforbable, and there is definitely an excess supply of this kind.

Exactly, and when you ask someone with a vested interest they are hardly going to say a negative...in fact when they drop (which they will) rather than talking about the current situation they will then switch to future predictions of massive increases. I have given up listening to these charlatans...all I know for sure is that a property is worth what someone will pay for it, and I am not prepared to pay any more than the historical average!