Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

UK housing transactions down 15% yoy


sancho panza

Recommended Posts

 

Inteersting that the larger declines are in the areas with the highest nominal prices eg South East -19.1%...........

Countrywide ...farewell old friend...

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-price-growth-speeds-up-as-transactions-plummet-by-15-across-uk/

Property transactions are down 15.1% across the UK, according to the latest official figures, led by declines in London, the east and the south-east of England.

New Land Registry figures for sales volumes date back to July – but, while lagging, are also startling.

They show UK transactions fell 17.2% annually in England, 12.4% in Northern Ireland, 10.6% in Wales and 1.9% in Scotland.

All English regions saw a drop in volumes, led by a 19.1% fall in the south-east, 18.8% in the east and 18.5% in London.

The figures form part of the Land Registry’s latest House Price Index, which show that average house prices had grown by 3.5% annually in September to £232,554,  a faster yearly rate than the 3% recorded for August.

However, much of the house price growth may have been led by new-builds if the Land Registry’s most recent data for this part of the market in July is anything to go by.

Its numbers show new-build prices were up by 6.8% annually in the year to July 2018, while secondhand homes were up 2.9% over the same period.

The Land Registry’s house price figures for secondhand homes in September showed average prices grew fastest in the west midlands region, increasing by 6.1% annually, closely followed by the east midlands which increased by 6% over the year.

In contrast, prices in London fell by 0.3% in the year to September.'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anecdotally one of the apartments in my block sold this week, was barely on the market, less than 2 weeks. Got a leaflet through the door from the EA's stating they sold at advertised price and had gone SSTC. This is one of the few apartments in my block that is actually OO rather than BTL. Going to be interesting who this sold to so quickly as generally property is holding on the market for at least 6 months. I don't follow the apartments usually but having had a scan doesn't seem they're moving either. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like someone there made a good decision and another a bad one...OK, didn't sell at peak value, but not far off it!...prices are only going in one direction for the next 3~5 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I keep pointing out to my mother, theres two sorts of *housing) market crashes - prices and transactions.

These are national figures. When you narrow down to geographic areas they are a lot worse.

IN certain northern towns there are virtually no sales.

Even in better placves - like my home town - the numbers ae 30% of a normal market.

Its not just tthe North.

In the South there have been huge losses of high paid fin sector jobs. There are towns in the regional south where the average wage is now almost half what it was ~15 years ago.

If it was not for low IRS and tax credits then these places would be fucked.

These places are fucked anyhow - look a tt mortgages being given out - max 5 x mean income - 4x income + 20% deposit.

All this as ownership of housing is concetrated i nthe over 50s.

Every 10 years ~50% of people 65 and above die off.

I guess well over 50% of areas have probate running ahead of sales.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

Inteersting that the larger declines are in the areas with the highest nominal prices eg South East -19.1%...........

 

Has always been the case I believe, on TOS someone I think put together an animated composite of regional price changes the wave of price changes from London out in both market directions for one of the last boom/bust cycles and the pattern was utterly unmistakeable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

As I keep pointing out to my mother, theres two sorts of *housing) market crashes - prices and transactions.

These are national figures. When you narrow down to geographic areas they are a lot worse.

IN certain northern towns there are virtually no sales.

Even in better placves - like my home town - the numbers ae 30% of a normal market.

Its not just tthe North.

In the South there have been huge losses of high paid fin sector jobs. There are towns in the regional south where the average wage is now almost half what it was ~15 years ago.

If it was not for low IRS and tax credits then these places would be fucked.

These places are fucked anyhow - look a tt mortgages being given out - max 5 x mean income - 4x income + 20% deposit.

All this as ownership of housing is concetrated i nthe over 50s.

Every 10 years ~50% of people 65 and above die off.

I guess well over 50% of areas have probate running ahead of sales.

 

 

The probate/forced debt sales in a recession are the ones that drive market pricing - with greatly reduced transactions those sales pull down the averages to an even greater amount than they would otherwise. Compare to commercial let market - where there seems to be some towns with 100,000's if not millions of square feet of available office space inlet yet monthly rental prices have not budged an inch - the market is dominated by a few institutional investors who sit on the empty lets whilst maintaining rentals on the ones that are occupied,  as long as that income is enough they never become forced sellers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, onlyme said:

The probate/forced debt sales in a recession are the ones that drive market pricing - with greatly reduced transactions those sales pull down the averages to an even greater amount than they would otherwise. Compare to commercial let market - where there seems to be some towns with 100,000's if not millions of square feet of available office space inlet yet monthly rental prices have not budged an inch - the market is dominated by a few institutional investors who sit on the empty lets whilst maintaining rentals on the ones that are occupied,  as long as that income is enough they never become forced sellers.

I dont think commercial LL can pull that trick for much longer.

All itll take is for a tweak to rates or the accountancy body to say - Value the place at actual rents achieved over 10 years.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

I dont think commercial LL can pull that trick for much longer.

All itll take is for a tweak to rates or the accountancy body to say - Value the place at actual rents achieved over 10 years.

 

Indeed. Must have had everybody looking around to see who would choke first last time. The insurance and pension companies and alike who can sit on their hands for decade timespans to bluff it out maybe can do so, but others can't, some visible achieved rent falls could then get more people asking about those actually achieved rents over a longer timeframe. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, onlyme said:

The probate/forced debt sales in a recession are the ones that drive market pricing - with greatly reduced transactions those sales pull down the averages to an even greater amount than they would otherwise. Compare to commercial let market - where there seems to be some towns with 100,000's if not millions of square feet of available office space inlet yet monthly rental prices have not budged an inch - the market is dominated by a few institutional investors who sit on the empty lets whilst maintaining rentals on the ones that are occupied,  as long as that income is enough they never become forced sellers.

Really good and really interesting angle. Thanks onlyme.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, A_P said:

starting to see some decreases on you new builds now. 3 different sites in close proximity to me

image.png.57f4249b84e2b48be0a5eca4f1466e6b.png

image.png.2133d7623052781197fa9be64100066e.png

image.png.1f001edac1cf6cec316f99ca78ba2d05.png

£430 to £375 is a good effort.Seeign aquite a few new build reductions hgiher up in leicestershire

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, A_P said:

Hampshire

Most of Hampshire falls into the very expensive London commute (10k+) and very low paid local jobs.

Not viable now with MMR and train fares at inflation + 5%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Most of Hampshire falls into the very expensive London commute (10k+) and very low paid local jobs.

Not viable now with MMR and train fares at inflation + 5%

No?

A london commute by train is circa £4500. Train car park was full this morning and I even sublet my apartment car parking space.

New build estate in walking distance to train station has consistantly been putting the prices up. Now have they been selling or not, no idea as I've not been round there since the summer. The development at that time seemed to be pretty well sold. The below style house first were selling for £360k last year.

image.png.6391b5d9f4cd870b0b07ce3ccf99615e.png

old 3 bed terraced opposite me in very short distance to the train station sold within weeks of going up. Nice housing stock is being bought up, although I doubt it's by locals and more likely either commuters or londoners cashing in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 17/11/2018 at 08:12, spygirl said:

 

Every 10 years ~50% of people 65 and above die off.

 

WHich has made absolutely no difference to prices in the last 10years ... or the 10 years before that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Band said:

WHich has made absolutely no difference to prices in the last 10years ... or the 10 years before that.

You dont grasp the detail.

Housing ownership is concentrated in the 55+ now. That was not the case 10-20 years ago, or ever really.

IO BTL has seen that become more so.

And yes, probabte has  a significant effect on houses. Its only the las t101-5 eyars where youve seen 'Well, lets let out Mums house' become a factor.

Pick a town, any town. Look for 'No onward chain' .

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, A_P said:

No?

A london commute by train is circa £4500. Train car park was full this morning and I even sublet my apartment car parking space.

New build estate in walking distance to train station has consistantly been putting the prices up. Now have they been selling or not, no idea as I've not been round there since the summer. The development at that time seemed to be pretty well sold. The below style house first were selling for £360k last year.

image.png.6391b5d9f4cd870b0b07ce3ccf99615e.png

old 3 bed terraced opposite me in very short distance to the train station sold within weeks of going up. Nice housing stock is being bought up, although I doubt it's by locals and more likely either commuters or londoners cashing in.

HANTs a long county.

A frined used to do brokenhurst. Season ticket is 7k/y.

Thats about 14k of his pre tax earnings, never mind the time (3h/day).

Sure there are closer towns bjt, to be it plainly, most are shitholes.

Id not want to be payig 6k/y, 15-20h commhjting and living in one of those soon to be slums in Basingstoke ex goods yard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

HANTs a long county.

A frined used to do brokenhurst. Season ticket is 7k/y.

Thats about 14k of his pre tax earnings, never mind the time (3h/day).

Sure there are closer towns bjt, to be it plainly, most are shitholes.

Id not want to be payig 6k/y, 15-20h commhjting and living in one of those soon to be slums in Basingstoke ex goods yard.

That's why I said circa. I'm sure if he was living in Brockenhurst money wasn't a problem for him. No idea why one would commute daily from the new forest but each to their own. But when talking about a Hampshire commute, your average commuter is going to be in Basingstoke, Winchester, Southampton/Eastleigh area at a push. Any further than that you need your head seeing too. You've selected an extreme, which holds no baring to reality. Plenty of villages in hampshrie with their own train stations too. Not all shitholes like you want to paint.

14 minutes ago, spygirl said:

You dont grasp the detail.

Housing ownership is concentrated in the 55+ now. That was not the case 10-20 years ago, or ever really.

IO BTL has seen that become more so.

And yes, probabte has  a significant effect on houses. Its only the las t101-5 eyars where youve seen 'Well, lets let out Mums house' become a factor.

Pick a town, any town. Look for 'No onward chain' .

But then we had 58 million people living here. What is it now, 66m? But lets be honest it's much more than that and will continue to increase. World is a different place now, with global money pooring in. I don't know if no onward chains/probates have increased as I've only been following the market a short while in comparsion to yourself. What I can tell you is they will sit on the market and will eventually sell. 

Out of curisoty do you ever change your position in light of conflicting information

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, A_P said:

That's why I said circa. I'm sure if he was living in Brockenhurst money wasn't a problem for him. No idea why one would commute daily from the new forest but each to their own. But when talking about a Hampshire commute, your average commuter is going to be in Basingstoke, Winchester, Southampton/Eastleigh area at a push. Any further than that you need your head seeing too. You've selected an extreme, which holds no baring to reality. Plenty of villages in hampshrie with their own train stations too. Not all shitholes like you want to paint.

But then we had 58 million people living here. What is it now, 66m? But lets be honest it's much more than that and will continue to increase. World is a different place now, with global money pooring in. I don't know if no onward chains/probates have increased as I've only been following the market a short while in comparsion to yourself. What I can tell you is they will sit on the market and will eventually sell. 

Out of curisoty do you ever change your position in light of conflicting information

Yes.

My position is still to be played out.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, A_P said:

No?

A london commute by train is circa £4500. Train car park was full this morning and I even sublet my apartment car parking space.

New build estate in walking distance to train station has consistantly been putting the prices up. Now have they been selling or not, no idea as I've not been round there since the summer. The development at that time seemed to be pretty well sold. The below style house first were selling for £360k last year.

image.png.6391b5d9f4cd870b0b07ce3ccf99615e.png

old 3 bed terraced opposite me in very short distance to the train station sold within weeks of going up. Nice housing stock is being bought up, although I doubt it's by locals and more likely either commuters or londoners cashing in.

That pricing strategy doesn't make much sense to me. I mean "We couldn't sell it in June for £376k so let's increase the price until it does sell". But then i'm not an EA so what do I know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Wheeler said:

That pricing strategy doesn't make much sense to me. I mean "We couldn't sell it in June for £376k so let's increase the price until it does sell". But then i'm not an EA so what do I know.

I think it's just a general listing rather than for a specific house as they're always building more and I assume they're trying to push up the area. Your typical HTB fomo isn't doing much homework and likely isn't going to negotiate/question the price. I've not taken a look in the estate since the summer as it's in the opposite direction I ever need to go. At that time it was selling pretty well by the looks of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've just pulled some transaction data from the land registry for my town:

New builds only from 1st May 2017

Average price - £489,107

Median - £414,225

Lowest - £260,000

Sold - 174

Updated as only originally gave me first 100 results

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...