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What does persimmon's share price tell us about the pwopatee market....


TheCountOfNowhere

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TheCountOfNowhere

I had a look at Persimmon's share price last week and noticed something quite alarming for anyone up to their neck in the house price mega bubble.....

image.png.5e6852b9ec6f8573f2a6918f41fe87ce.png

When all hell broke loose in 2007 their share price had gone down 23% from peak in Aug 2007, just before it all went tits up.

Currently down 26% from peak.  Everything's going tits up.

Someone in 2007 knew what was afoot ( just look at the gold graph ).

Someone  in 2018 knows.....

The similarity between then and now are remarkable, look at the spike 18 months before and look at the madness of that graph.  This is not a normal market, it's proper mental

Definitely one to watch....as leading indicators go, this is a cracker

laters dosboders.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Band said:

Tells me the shareholders have grabbed all the money whilst they can and didnt fancy investing it back into building houses.

any idea of the value of there landbank and other tangables,im surprised ive not been banned off the lse tw forum for takeing the piss over their panic and going mad about people who voted for brexit.

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29 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

any idea of the value of there landbank and other tangables,im surprised ive not been banned off the lse tw forum for takeing the piss over their panic and going mad about people who voted for brexit.

No idea, dont they just get lots of options to cover their backsides.

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1 minute ago, Band said:

No idea, dont they just get lots of options to cover their backsides.

true the system protects them,tw. nealy went under due to its exposure to spain and america in the last crash.they could be hit hard i agree but they are more robust this time.id not be surprised to see them sub 50p saying that 

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21 minutes ago, spunko said:

Have you checked Foxtons share price lately? 

Once the crash is in full flow they could be a good share to buy if they havent gone bust.

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4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I had a look at Persimmon's share price last week and noticed something quite alarming for anyone up to their neck in the house price mega bubble.....

image.png.5e6852b9ec6f8573f2a6918f41fe87ce.png

When all hell broke loose in 2007 their share price had gone down 23% from peak in Aug 2007, just before it all went tits up.

Currently down 26% from peak.  Everything's going tits up.

Someone in 2007 knew what was afoot ( just look at the gold graph ).

Someone  in 2018 knows.....

The similarity between then and now are remarkable, look at the spike 18 months before and look at the madness of that graph.  This is not a normal market, it's proper mental

Definitely one to watch....as leading indicators go, this is a cracker

laters dosboders.

 

 

You could probably argue technically that it is still in a channel / wedge / whatever and have been here before and just a pullback. As much as whatever is going on in the UK whatever happens globally will decide this one - US 30 year mortgage rates are above 5% now for clean credit record and large deposit. Aus looking shaky, Canada (I think) just announced buying mortgage debt.  Keep an eye on the US 30 year mortgage rate - if it swan dives lower well under 5% then the governments/banks are throwing the kitchen sink at it again, if it doesn't and carries on higher, game over.

Wouldn't take property market activity (build/construction) as a lead indicator, apart from if they are balls out working it is only to convert as much of their land bank to completion before the shit hits the fan - don't think there is anywhere particular good/timely for land prices, if those are softening then shows the main builders not looking to landbank whatever they can get their grubby hands on.

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