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spygirl

'Mumsnet users are adults (many highly financially literate) and we think can make decisions re. risks.'

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it's a funny world.

If you're writing about whether the reader should invest in shares in a multinational company with transparent accounts and a liquid market, you've got to worry about quite a few things, like disclaimers and stating interests.

But if you're writing about crypto you can just make it all up, hide that it is an paid advert by making it look like a general interest piece and not mention any downsides at all.

Still, it's nothing compared with the puff that's been said about property as an investment since Mumsnet's year zero.

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As per the crypto thread you can do alright in these but you absolutely need to know what you're doing - what currencies to buy and when to buy and when to sell.

They are not for amateurs, and when it comes to cryptos I am a rank amateur.

Taking money for an advert to suck in amateurs is not responsible behaviour on behalf of the site owners.

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xetoro-1_630.jpg,q1542373034.pagespeed.i

That is why I don't think crypto is dead yet. There is the 37% (80-43) inequality crypto gap between have heards and invested.

All you need is some mainstream app (instagram/facebook/snap chat) to incorporate crypto trading and boom you have many more buyers.

 

---

Time to dig out betting on the market - where everyday people sank their entire life savings into dot.com stocks. This was released in 1997, not long before the 2000 top.

 

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8 minutes ago, 201p said:

xetoro-1_630.jpg,q1542373034.pagespeed.i

That is why I don't think crypto is dead yet. There is the 37% (80-43) inequality crypto gap between have heards and invested.

All you need is some mainstream app (instagram/facebook/snap chat) to incorporate crypto trading and boom you have many more buyers.

 

---

Time to dig out betting on the market - where everyday people sank their entire life savings into dot.com stocks. This was released in 1997, not long before the 2000 top.

 

I'm trying not stray into the techniclaities which I don't understand but isn't "crypto currencies" like the stockmarket; as in there are shares or sectors that can blow up (like IT shares in the dotcom boom) but there are other ones that will do perfectly well despite this happening like brewers shares?

So Bitcoin can go down to pence and people can lose a lot but there will be plenty of other currencies which they can buy that will do alright?

Or are there systematic factors - like regulation or banning by particular countries - that could make the whole lot worthless?

Which is it?  Anyone know?

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^I don't think people will worry - when they see the dollar signs.

Heavy regulation will come after something blows up. OR be curtailed before it even starts (e.g. Royal Mails Gold Crypto token - yes they actually started one, but the operation was shut down and the staff fired).

Ride the wave when the time is right.

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We already have some celebrities on board, like Katy Perry. She is still the world No1. Twitter followed person (haven't checked). 

If someone was smart, a new token could be released, get a celeb to market it (give them 100m free tokens of course), and incorporate a "buy" button into Twitter/socal media app.

Chuck in Multi-level marketing so you get referral free tokens (not pyramid selling), and boom you have the next boom in Crypto.

The other market drivers such as the "BRIC" story, or the world is running out of oil story is long in the tooth. Crypto is still one to watch going forward.

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23 minutes ago, 201p said:

xetoro-1_630.jpg,q1542373034.pagespeed.i

That is why I don't think crypto is dead yet. There is the 37% (80-43) inequality crypto gap between have heards and invested.

All you need is some mainstream app (instagram/facebook/snap chat) to incorporate crypto trading and boom you have many more buyers.

 

Oh, come on. There are several scenarios:

  1. Heard of it -- wouldn't touch it with a bargepole
  2. Heard of it -- but are quite suspicious, really
  3. Heard of it -- maybe, but there are better investment opportunities
  4. Heard of it -- haven't got any money and can't see how any money would come
  5. Heard of it -- but there's a pile of stuff I've heard of and I don't go spunking money on them
  6. Heard of it -- but can't work out how to invest.

You're lumping everyone into case 6.

You should actually be focussed on the words for the 43% -- are invested or would consider investing.  So actually, the number is 43% - <%age that would consider but aren't invested>.  But, again, this is a complicated thing -- how many would consider, but then on actually thinking about it wouldn't invest?  

16 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I'm trying not stray into the techniclaities which I don't understand but isn't "crypto currencies" like the stockmarket; as in there are shares or sectors that can blow up (like IT shares in the dotcom boom) but there are other ones that will do perfectly well despite this happening like brewers shares?

That's Bitcoin's biggest failure, IMO.  It is always about investing for some ill defined future utopia where the things are actually used.  No-one actually uses them as a currency (well, trivial quantities only).  

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21 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

So Bitcoin can go down to pence and people can lose a lot but there will be plenty of other currencies which they can buy that will do alright?

Its not like stocks at all, what is being tested is the idea that people can agree to attribute value to something scarce which has no backing asset purely by mutual consensus. This is really an all or nothing deal, if bitcoin fails then (being by far the biggest cypto) this key underpinning concept is disproven  and crypto in its current form is all but dead.

Quote

Or are there systematic factors - like regulation or banning by particular countries - that could make the whole lot worthless?

These risks are receding as time passes. The US, which is probably the country that would have the biggest effect, is probably already too far down the adoption/integration road to turn back, there is now probably too much wall-street money involved for anyone to upset the apple cart.

The two biggest risks to bitcoin are:

1) that it turns out to be a fundamentally a crap idea with no sticking power

2) governments and central banks see the error of their ways and go back to sound money / gold standard.

Quote

Which is it?  Anyone know?

There is no certainty or anyone who has any special insight (including me).

Edited by goldbug9999

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2 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Its not like stocks at all, what is being tested is the idea that people can agree to attribute value to something scarce which has no backing asset purely by mutual consensus. This is really an all or nothing deal, if bitcoin fails then (being by far the biggest cypto) this key underpinning concept is disproven  and crypto in its current form is all but dead.

These risks are receding as time passes. The US, which is probably the country that would have the biggest effect, is probably already too far down the adoption/integration road to turn back, there is now probably too much wall-street money involved for anyone to upset the apple cart.

There is no certainty or anyone who has any special insight (including me).

Cheers.

With all the tech speak I didn't quite get that basic point.  So it's either tulip mania or the future of financial transactions at some point with a lot of bumps in the road whilst the outcome remains uncertain.

That's too risky for me.

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Cryptoassets are a highly volatile, non-regulated investment product and are not appropriate for all investors. No EU investor protection. Your capital is at risk.

But that should be at the top of the page in huge writing.


 

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7 minutes ago, dgul said:

 No-one actually uses them as a currency (well, trivial quantities only).  

I'm not sure how big the turnover is on all the darknet markets but I suspect there is quite a volume there.

There's a longstanding bitcoin/crypto thread on TOS: some of the early adopters have made some serious gains. In contrast, those who entered the market in the last year or so have largely been roasted.

Bitcoin is now mainstream so I can't see where the next big rally could come from in the absence of some major adoption by the conventional economy.

 

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  1. Heard of it -- wouldn't touch it with a bargepole - Get a trusted celeb to increase trust. Market with many stories of how ordinary people with no training can make fortunes. Aka Bitcoins Under The Hammer. They could start giving away Crypto prizes in I'm A Celeb Get me outta here.
  2. Heard of it -- but are quite suspicious, really - It's been 10 years since inception of Bitcoin. On a longer enough timeline Crypto risk tends towards Zero (I should trade mark that one!)
  3. Heard of it -- maybe, but there are better investment opportunities. Maybe, but if the media is flooded with pro-crypto propaganda those other voices will be silenced as we have seen with Property over the last 15 years.
  4. Heard of it -- haven't got any money and can't see how any money would come. No problem! Sign up and will give you credit. Pay in 24 months time - as Cryto only goes up, the loan pays for itself!
  5. Heard of it -- but there's a pile of stuff I've heard of and I don't go spunking money on them. Er I give you some NLP Law Of Positive Attraction stuff. Money will be attracted to you.
  6. Heard of it -- but can't work out how to invest.

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

As per the crypto thread you can do alright in these but you absolutely need to know what you're doing - what currencies to buy and when to buy and when to sell.

I agree, OH made lots on them last year bit it was like a second job and he couldn't switch off, waking up at 5 to check what the Koreans were doing. Sold most early Dec as it looked like it was in a bubble. Lots of research is needed to understand which ones are worth investing in and predict where the market is going.

I like the idea of an alternative money system to diminish the power of the banks.

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8 minutes ago, 201p said:
  1. Heard of it -- wouldn't touch it with a bargepole - Get a trusted celeb to increase trust. Market with many stories of how ordinary people with no training can make fortunes. Aka Bitcoins Under The Hammer. They could start giving away Crypto prizes in I'm A Celeb Get me outta here.
  2. Heard of it -- but are quite suspicious, really - It's been 10 years since inception of Bitcoin. On a longer enough timeline Crypto risk tends towards Zero (I should trade mark that one!)
  3. Heard of it -- maybe, but there are better investment opportunities. Maybe, but if the media is flooded with pro-crypto propaganda those other voices will be silenced as we have seen with Property over the last 15 years.
  4. Heard of it -- haven't got any money and can't see how any money would come. No problem! Sign up and will give you credit. Pay in 24 months time - as Cryto only goes up, the loan pays for itself!
  5. Heard of it -- but there's a pile of stuff I've heard of and I don't go spunking money on them. Er I give you some NLP Law Of Positive Attraction stuff. Money will be attracted to you.
  6. Heard of it -- but can't work out how to invest.

But, again, you're focusing on the positives...

You might as well add:

  1. Media starts having loads of stories about how people lost everything
  2. On a longer enough timescale the possibility of making money with crypto trends to zero.
  3. This needs more than propaganda -- also needs government policy to prop it up (and governments quite like currencies they can control, thanks)
  4. without 3 this leads to 1.
  5. There are a gazillion things people are being pushed.  Crypto, join the queue.

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4 minutes ago, maudit said:

I agree, OH made lots on them last year bit it was like a second job and he couldn't switch off, waking up at 5 to check what the Koreans were doing. Sold most early Dec as it looked like it was in a bubble. Lots of research is needed to understand which ones are worth investing in and predict where the market is going.

I like the idea of an alternative money system to diminish the power of the banks.

I am toying with retiring even earlier than I planned and part of my time would be spent actively investing (I have a little bet with myself that I can increase the return, which is currently roughly my salary, to double my salary which would certainly prove that retiring was the right decision); though I will steer well clear of cryptos if it involves getting up at five to check the Asian markets!

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I'll add that I don't actually dislike cryptocurrencies.  I think that by 10 years time there'll be considerable global trade using cryptocurrencies.

The problem I have is why Bitcoin?  (or Ripple, Tether, whatever).  To me, investing in Bitcoin is a bit like investing in shells because you've heard of this new thing called 'currency' and it's going to be huge -- but are you going to pick the right shell? 

Anyway, IMO there'll be a crypto, but it'll be a bank thing and there won't be money to be made apart from to the very people that the current crypto enthusiasts hate.

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

I'll add that I don't actually dislike cryptocurrencies.  I think that by 10 years time there'll be considerable global trade using cryptocurrencies.

The problem I have is why Bitcoin?  (or Ripple, Tether, whatever).  To me, investing in Bitcoin is a bit like investing in shells because you've heard of this new thing called 'currency' and it's going to be huge -- but are you going to pick the right shell? 

Anyway, IMO there'll be a crypto, but it'll be a bank thing and there won't be money to be made apart from to the very people that the current crypto enthusiasts hate.

Agreed there will be something - likely backed with physical assets - and it'll have to be a long standing, trusted central bank that does it.

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2 hours ago, maudit said:

I agree, OH made lots on them last year bit it was like a second job and he couldn't switch off, waking up at 5 to check what the Koreans were doing. Sold most early Dec as it looked like it was in a bubble. Lots of research is needed to understand which ones are worth investing in and predict where the market is going.

I like the idea of an alternative money system to diminish the power of the banks.

+1 for the BiB.

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