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GARCH

Northern Ireland

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I’ll get straight to the point on this.  A rather unpleasant conclusion from the current Brexit mess that I am arriving at is that it is unacceptable that the specifics of Northern Ireland are driving a key outcome for the fortunes of the UK as a whole.  In other words the tail is wagging the dog.

If NI is a proper part of the UK then why can’t we have a border round it?

If the ROI is passionately against this and somehow this matters, then why don’t they just take the whole thing on a permanent basis?

The truth is that the current structure of NI is an unworkable barrier to the completeness of UK sovereignty and a poor compromise put in place to avoid violence.

When the dust settles do we need to face up to this reality?

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There should be a border IMO.

There was a whole radio programme on the So-Called BBC, unsurprisingly, celebrating that the border had gone.

The Republic of Ireland is a different nation and there are borders between nations.

I despair at the kowtowing to the growther Irish PM about this issue. 

We have fought wars for less.

Edited by Frank Hovis

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In that connection the Good Friday Agreement is a bit of a red herring as well and it should be more accurately called the Good Friday Acceptance of Reality because with the eu effectively controlling the Republic of Ireland as well as Northern Ireland (including the rest of Britain) then the IRA could have no argument with the British government (as the British government wasn't running the show anymore) so the issue would have disappeared of it's own accord without any need for any official agreement or acceptance.

It was just a way to make the politicians of the day look good in front of a general public that at the time had no real idea of the loss of British sovereignty to the eu as it was hidden away from them by duplicitous politicians.

Edited by twocents

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14 minutes ago, GARCH said:

I’ll get straight to the point on this.  A rather unpleasant conclusion from the current Brexit mess that I am arriving at is that it is unacceptable that the specifics of Northern Ireland are driving a key outcome for the fortunes of the UK as a whole.  In other words the tail is wagging the dog.

If NI is a proper part of the UK then why can’t we have a border round it?

If the ROI is passionately against this and somehow this matters, then why don’t they just take the whole thing on a permanent basis?

The truth is that the current structure of NI is an unworkable barrier to the completeness of UK sovereignty and a poor compromise put in place to avoid violence.

When the dust settles do we need to face up to this reality?

Demographics. There will be a Catholic voting majority in the near future in NI and the majority identify themselves as Irish.  Put up a hard border and it will get very nasty.

Edited by montecristo

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3 minutes ago, montecristo said:

Demographics. There will be a Catholic voting majority in the near future in NI and the majority identify themselves as Irish.  Put up a hard border and it will get very nasty.

My preference, if I have one, is for a united Ireland in the long run - it’s just a more tidy outcome.  If the demographics are supportive they can have a referendum at some point and make it happen.

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The impression I get from anecdotes I've heard is that the south doesn't want us anyway.

And what's always irked me about many 'republicans' in the north was that they were more than happy to take British money via the benefits system - huuuuge amount of DLA claimants in NI.

IMHO uniting with the south would start a civil war, and I also see why folk from the mainland view NI with contempt as a drain on finances.

Ultimatley I think it's not about NI being part of the uk or roi, but sorting it's own shit out and becoming independant,  but I don't see that happening either.

My worry is that when the British state goes bust, they pull all the money and public sector jobs out of NI and let it rot. A sharp reduction in housing and other social benefits would also have far reaching consequences I fear.

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6 minutes ago, GARCH said:

My preference, if I have one, is for a united Ireland in the long run - it’s just a more tidy outcome.  If the demographics are supportive they can have a referendum at some point and make it happen.

As a NI Catholic and conservative I would be in the percentage of Catholics that the Unionists need to prevent an United Ireland.  Conservative Catholics feel closer to the policies of the DUP than any other party in the whole island of Ireland.  They just need to dump the Orange order.  Ironically the biggest threat to the existence of NI was not the IRA but the Orange order.

Edited by montecristo

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There wasn't a particularly hard border before the eu took over (took over for want of a better term) and yet there was still the violence as the main issue was one of unification and getting out of the control of Westminster. 

As long as the NI and the RoI are separate (like before the eu took over) what's to stop the violence for unification starting again even without a hard border - and in that case some might say there might as well be a fully hard border indeed an ultra hard border.

Apart from anything else the RoI isn't really the RoI anymore it's the eu and that'll be increasingly the case - until the eu collapses that is.

Edited by twocents

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Northern Ireland has been hanging round like a bad smell for too long now. It is Remainers hanging onto a Union by perverting democracy, supported all the time by an overseas army. You must see now how that winds people up.

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3 minutes ago, Panther said:

Northern Ireland has been hanging round like a bad smell for too long now. It is Remainers hanging onto a Union by perverting democracy, supported all the time by an overseas army. You must see now how that winds people up.

 

Sir Winston Churchill, February 16, 1922:

“The whole map of Europe has been changed … but as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.”

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10 minutes ago, montecristo said:

As a NI Catholic and conservative I would be in the percentage of Catholics that the Unionists need to prevent an United Ireland.  Conservative Catholics feel closer to the policies of the DUP than any other party in the whole island of Ireland.  They just need to dump the Orange order.  Ironically the biggest threat to the existence of NI was not the IRA but the Orange order.

Pretty much every Englishman alive knows fuck all about the actual ins and outs of whats going on in NIreland.

Id expect our English/Scottish/Welsh born leaders know less.

A lad i met in OZ 20 years ago who was in the Orange Order told me the reason theyll not become part or ROI is money, but now the ROI is wealthier per capita than the UK. Any truth in that i dont know.

Edited by Band

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If there was a vote now for a united Ireland taken in the north, i think 98% plus of unionists would say 'no'. The nationalist / Catholic vote would be maybe 60/40 in favour. Maybe a bit more for yes. 

A lot of people here see the south as quite backward.

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3 minutes ago, Band said:

 

Pretty much every Englishman alive knows fuck all about the actual ins and outs of whats going on in NIreland.

Id expect our English/Scottish/Welsh born leaders know less.

A lad i met in OZ 20 years ago who was in the Orange Order told me the reason theyll not become part or ROI is money, but now the ROI is wealthier per capita than the UK. Any truth in that i dont know.

I work regularly in Dublin it's absolutely booming but that is due to the low corporation tax. Once their EU masters force them to raise it the economy will belly flop.

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13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Ultimately I think it's not about NI being part of the uk or roi, but sorting it's own shit out and becoming independant,  but I don't see that happening either.

Guess I discounted that option out of hand based on finances, but ironically it might have a chance of working if it was plugged with EU money!

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1 minute ago, montecristo said:

 I work regularly in Dublin it's absolutely booming but that is due to the low corporation tax. Once their EU masters force them to raise it the economy will belly flop.

Maybe theyll seek to become art of a union with the English should we ever leave the EU and become a low tax/small govt nation.

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Just now, GARCH said:

Guess I discounted that option out of hand based on finances, but ironically it might have a chance of working if it was plugged with EU money!

NI survives due to public sector jobs and benefits.  Wouldn't last 5 mins being independent.

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34 minutes ago, Band said:

I believe the catholics are out breeding the rest so with demographics its only a matter of time until they merge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland#Religion

Islam is now listed by the Central Statistics Office as being one of the fastest growing religions in Ireland.

Islam is Ireland's third largest religion

In 1991 there were 3,873 Muslims and by 2016 there were 63,400

 

Edited by Hopeful

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3 minutes ago, blobloblob said:

Could the UK offer to open a customs union just for Ireland to join, to avoid a "hard border"?

 

I think that option is called 'the de-facto united Ireland'.  I think it might lead to a little trouble down the line...

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1 minute ago, Band said:

Maybe theyll seek to become art of a union with the English should we ever leave the EU and become a low tax/small govt nation.

Always made sense for the ROI to leave the EU along with the UK. Just keep both countries corporation tax in line and low.

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1 minute ago, montecristo said:

NI survives due to public sector jobs and benefits.  Wouldn't last 5 mins being independent.

I hear you, but theoretically it could get a huge small state net receipt from the EU to cover for that.  Possibly with some permanent divorce maintenance settlement from the UK.  Would be a purely political thing and the numbers would be small enough that it might work (in theory - I’m not sponsoring this idea!).

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4 minutes ago, Hopeful said:

Islam is now listed by the Central Statistics Office as being one of the fastest growing religions in Ireland.

Islam is Ireland's third largest religion

In 1991 there were 3,873 Muslims and by 2016 there were 63,400

 

Yep, Dublin is a foreign land now and the government has a 2040 project to import a million more people to a population of less than 5 million.  Madness.

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/09022006-project-ireland-2040/

"By 2040 we expect that an additional one million people will live in Ireland, an additional two-thirds of a million people will work here. These are huge increases: more people will be travelling to work, school and universities, more buildings will be needed to accommodate them, clean water will be needed for homes, farms and industry, more and better care facilities will be required for the elderly. "

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3 minutes ago, GARCH said:

I hear you, but theoretically it could get a huge small state net receipt from the EU to cover for that.  Possibly with some permanent divorce maintenance settlement from the UK.  Would be a purely political thing and the numbers would be small enough that it might work (in theory - I’m not sponsoring this idea!).

Just a small problem of neither side wanting an independent state :)

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27 minutes ago, Band said:

 

Pretty much every Englishman alive knows fuck all about the actual ins and outs of whats going on in NIreland.

Id expect our English/Scottish/Welsh born leaders know less.

A lad i met in OZ 20 years ago who was in the Orange Order told me the reason theyll not become part or ROI is money, but now the ROI is wealthier per capita than the UK. Any truth in that i dont know.

Significantly wealthier in gdp per capita terms according to the link below

Quote

 

but for example according to the numbeo link below London's average local purchasing power is slightly better than Dublin's.  Apparently Belfast has a significantly higher local purchasing power than Dublin.

Quote

 

Squaring the difference in the two stats (wiki and gdp per capita v numbeo and local purchasing power) is another of those puzzles.

Edited by twocents

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