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Reddit discusses UK House prices


Durabo

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Interesting to see some discussion of BTL among the noise. They seem to assume that the number of forced sellers in a crash will be low - they don't seem to understand that it is these forced sellers that trigger the crash.

Or at least that's my interpretation!

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"The fundamental problem in the UK is the lack of supply of new homes"


No you sniveling, wretched waste of space liberal, the fundamental problem is that 3M people have come here in the last decade and bred like rabbits.

I fucking hate Reddit. It is full of pious 18 year old know-it-alls.

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Oh wait, someone has seen the light.
 

Quote

 

Fertility rate since the 60's dropped below replacement, so large scale housebuilding wasn't necessary.

We've only got a housebuilding shortfall because of the high levels of immigration since then.

If your native population is declining, you don't need a massive house building program to maintain adequate levels of housing. You only need that if you massively increase the population (e.g. through immigration).

The fundamental problem in the UK is successive governments failing to increase the supply of new homes while maintaining mass immigration. The two go hand in hand.

 

 

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how dare you sir, you dare to criticise the queens own government, you insinuate our betters are holistically useless, fucking usless you seem to add.

Danny dyer seems to agree, he especially doesnt like david cameron. A petition needs to be started in the guardian no doubt to bring bath celebrity boxing so that dyer and cameron can both go at it, prize to be a freshly defrosted pigs head.

Reddit always reminded me of mumsnet for johnny foreigner , although to be honest, its less entertaining.

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11 hours ago, spunko said:

"The fundamental problem in the UK is the lack of supply of new homes"


No you sniveling, wretched waste of space liberal, the fundamental problem is that 3M people have come here in the last decade and bred like rabbits.

I fucking hate Reddit. It is full of pious 18 year old know-it-alls.

Is it really, though? I believe it was shown on ToS that between 2001 and 2015 the number of new dwellings was higher than the number of new households. So, even though there was increased demand from immigration, the building sector coped with it in full and then some more.

The problem was extra demand created by BTLers. Combined with preferential financing, they managed to price out an entire generation. Was it 83% of all the newbuilds in that period that got snapped by them? I believe that was the quoted figure.

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2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Is it really, though? I believe it was shown on ToS that between 2001 and 2015 the number of new dwellings was higher than the number of new households. So, even though there was increased demand from immigration, the building sector coped with it in full and then some more.

The problem was extra demand created by BTLers. Combined with preferential financing, they managed to price out an entire generation. Was it 83% of all the newbuilds in that period that got snapped by them? I believe that was the quoted figure.

Depends whether you believe the population figures!

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Is it really, though? I believe it was shown on ToS that between 2001 and 2015 the number of new dwellings was higher than the number of new households. So, even though there was increased demand from immigration, the building sector coped with it in full and then some more. 

I don't know what you mean by this. Are you saying that housebuilders were building way above the required needs , and new homes sat empty throughout the noughties?

Since 1998, we've had unprecedented immigration never before seen in UK history, the housebuilding rates shouldn't even try to cater for that, because otherwise we'll end up like Hong Fucking Kong.

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Just now, spunko said:

I don't know what you mean by this. Are you saying that housebuilders were building way above the required needs , and new homes sat empty throughout the noughties?

We've had unprecedented immigration never before seen in UK history since 1998, the housebuilding rates shouldn't even try to cater for that, because otherwise we'll end up like Hong Fucking Kong.

What I'm saying is that, if I rememebr correctly, between 2001 and 2015 the number of households increased by 2.4mil and the number of houses by 2.8mil, with 80+% of those houses being snapped for let. So no, they did not sit empty, they got let out straigh away to the very people who got outbidded.

Without the BTL brigade, immigration would still have created problems but housing bubble wouldn't have been one of them according to those figures.

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Just now, kibuc said:

What I'm saying is that, if I rememebr correctly, between 2001 and 2015 the number of households increased by 2.4mil and the number of houses by 2.8mil, with 80+% of those houses being snapped for let. So no, they did not sit empty, they got let out straigh away to the very people who got outbidded.

Without the BTL brigade, immigration would still have created problems but housing bubble wouldn't have been one of them according to those figures.

Right, but do you think all of the sub-letters are British natives? High immigration rates are creating demand for BTLers, who incidentally I'm not defending, they're mostly parasites.

Sorry to sound trite but if there were lower immigration rates (MUCH lower) then there would be less demand for BTLs.

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Whatever you do, don't mention decreasing house prices to normies. Just been house hunting and doing viewings in NI this past weekend. Quite apparent the houses aren't selling, reductions happening, sellers at wits end. I mention to family this, looks like it the buyers are going to be in a strong position and opportunity for some low offers. I keep hearing "insulting" now. WTF is an insulting offer? Are you on my side or some random seller that you know nothing about ? xD

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17 minutes ago, spunko said:

Right, but do you think all of the sub-letters are British natives? High immigration rates are creating demand for BTLers, who incidentally I'm not defending, they're mostly parasites.

Sorry to sound trite but if there were lower immigration rates (MUCH lower) then there would be less demand for BTLs.

Immigration creates demand for housing, but not necessarily for BTL. If UK house prices were at they historical averages, selling your old place in Poland, Slovakia or Romania would be more than enough for a solid deposit, even in London.

Granted, not everyone came here with an intention of staying, you can find plenty of EEs who left their families back home and are happy to squeeze into an overloaded HMO for 2 or 3 years before heading back, but one could argue that they don't really create too much demand for housing if they are staying at the rate of 8 per room.

That's not to say there was no effect at all, but I reckon it was much smaller than advertised. Mind you, portfolio BTLers are letting to migrants and natives alike. Without immigration, preferential financing would have still given the BTL brigade an edge over prospective owner occupiers. It's naive to think they wouldn't have taken advantage of it out of compassion for their fellow countrymen.

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As people pay ever larger amounts of their salaries on RENT it’s starving the real economy.. 

We may not have the highest public debt but we have the highest private debt in Europe.. 

If FED rise rates and BOE should follow to protect the £

The high street imploding in 2019 will effect landlords, pension funds and councils in the retail/shopping centre rental arena. 

Also we should see some adjustment in the jobs market as business cuts back/collapse 

confidence should take enough of a hit to have the sheeple shouting Brexit at full volume whilst completely ignoring the inevitability of a ressesion regardless.. 

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22 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Immigration creates demand for housing, but not necessarily for BTL. If UK house prices were at they historical averages, selling your old place in Poland, Slovakia or Romania would be more than enough for a solid deposit, even in London.

Granted, not everyone came here with an intention of staying, you can find plenty of EEs who left their families back home and are happy to squeeze into an overloaded HMO for 2 or 3 years before heading back, but one could argue that they don't really create too much demand for housing if they are staying at the rate of 8 per room.

That's not to say there was no effect at all, but I reckon it was much smaller than advertised. Mind you, portfolio BTLers are letting to migrants and natives alike. Without immigration, preferential financing would have still given the BTL brigade an edge over prospective owner occupiers. It's naive to think they wouldn't have taken advantage of it out of compassion for they fellow countrymen.

The government's numbers for those coming here versus those heading back are published annually, and most (so far?) have not headed back. One only needs one's eyes and ears to know that the number is increasing yearly, and as onlyme said there is a general, understandable mistrust of government figures too.

I agree with you that the BTLers have created a plethora of problems, but I disagree with you that 300k net people a year coming here isn't driving up demand/prices massively. It is a perfect storm.

HMOs are a symptom of demand outstripping supply, the usual slavish answer is to "build more houses", but I prefer the one about cutting the demand, eg an easy way to do this is prevent 300k people/yr coming here. The human ponzi scheme must end along with the property ponzi.

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2 minutes ago, spunko said:

The government's numbers for those coming here versus those heading back are published annually, and most (so far?) have not headed back. One only needs one's eyes and ears to know that the number is increasing yearly, and as onlyme said there is a general, understandable mistrust of government figures too.

I agree with you that the BTLers have created a plethora of problems, but I disagree with you that 300k net people a year coming here isn't driving up demand/prices massively. It is a perfect storm.

Absolutely, there wasn't just a single smoking gun. You could add Asians laundering their money into the mix. Entire developments marketed exclusively in Shanghai.

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59 minutes ago, macca said:

As people pay ever larger amounts of their salaries on RENT it’s starving the real economy.. 

We may not have the highest public debt but we have the highest private debt in Europe.. 

If FED rise rates and BOE should follow to protect the £

The high street imploding in 2019 will effect landlords, pension funds and councils in the retail/shopping centre rental arena. 

Also we should see some adjustment in the jobs market as business cuts back/collapse 

confidence should take enough of a hit to have the sheeple shouting Brexit at full volume whilst completely ignoring the inevitability of a ressesion regardless.. 

Bang on.Thsi sh1t's about to get very real.

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Immigration creates demand for housing, but not necessarily for BTL. If UK house prices were at they historical averages, selling your old place in Poland, Slovakia or Romania would be more than enough for a solid deposit, even in London.

Granted, not everyone came here with an intention of staying, you can find plenty of EEs who left their families back home and are happy to squeeze into an overloaded HMO for 2 or 3 years before heading back, but one could argue that they don't really create too much demand for housing if they are staying at the rate of 8 per room.

That's not to say there was no effect at all, but I reckon it was much smaller than advertised. Mind you, portfolio BTLers are letting to migrants and natives alike. Without immigration, preferential financing would have still given the BTL brigade an edge over prospective owner occupiers. It's naive to think they wouldn't have taken advantage of it out of compassion for their fellow countrymen.

Lot of what you describe.Arrival of EE's hit lower socio economic deciles wages hard -partiuclarly in real terms.I have long time friends from youth who drive white vans and were earning £10+ an hour in 2006.Now those jobs paying min wage.

Real problems occurred in places like Leicester with E's with kids applying for council accomodation and displacing Brits with no kids/lengthening queues.Pushed up HB bill and increased demand for private rentals where councils place overflow.This may be Leicester specific but I suspect nationwide.

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1 hour ago, spunko said:

I don't know what you mean by this. Are you saying that housebuilders were building way above the required needs , and new homes sat empty throughout the noughties?

Since 1998, we've had unprecedented immigration never before seen in UK history, the housebuilding rates shouldn't even try to cater for that, because otherwise we'll end up like Hong Fucking Kong.

Spot on.People talk about the Ugandan Asian immigration of teh 1970's and compare it to the last 20 years  but that was sub 50,000 iirc,ergo nothing liek what';s ahppoened.

I suspcet we'll have a lot of empty BTL's in teh enxt few years as the economy softens and people return home.

Polish economy doing nicely I beleive.

 

I msut do some work.gotta stop psoting.

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6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Spot on.People talk about the Ugandan Asian immigration of teh 1970's and compare it to the last 20 years  but that was sub 50,000 iirc,ergo nothing liek what';s ahppoened.

I suspcet we'll have a lot of empty BTL's in teh enxt few years as the economy softens and people return home.

Polish economy doing nicely I beleive.

 

I msut do some work.gotta stop psoting.

The most ridiculous is the Huguenots comparison, similar numbers/percentages but over the course of 200 years not 15.

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Austin Allegro
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Lot of what you describe.Arrival of EE's hit lower socio economic deciles wages hard -partiuclarly in real terms.I have long time friends from youth who drive white vans and were earning £10+ an hour in 2006.Now those jobs paying min wage.

Real problems occurred in places like Leicester with E's with kids applying for council accomodation and displacing Brits with no kids/lengthening queues.Pushed up HB bill and increased demand for private rentals where councils place overflow.This may be Leicester specific but I suspect nationwide.

I would imagine there is also a form of white flight going on. Eg, EEs and pakistannis might be living eight to a room in one house, but the effect of that is that it ghettoises the rest of the street with noise, comings and goings at all hours, lack of parking spaces etc. So gradually the native families and couples want to move out, creating a demand for new build Barratt estates on greenfield land. So the new guests are not necessarily taking up new housing, but are partly creating a demand for it amongst the natives.

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3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Bang on.Thsi sh1t's about to get very real.

I do hope so, but im rather cynical as ive been waiting for a crash since 2003 ish ... i emailed Barrats last week about a house that is advertised at 270k and asked if theyd take 215k in cold hard cash (ie minus the 20% HTB inflation) ... i missed their call and was going to speak to them after the weekend but on the Friday it dropped 15k.  Thinking will see what happens over the coming months as even 215k is too much for what it is.

I know how hard it is to save this kind of money through physical manual labour, if others did they really wouldnt be spending so much on what in most cases is a pretty shite house.

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3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I suspcet we'll have a lot of empty BTL's in teh enxt few years as the economy softens and people return home.

More will still be coming than going ... if EU's stop coming theyll open the floodgates to other nations.

Can't but help think once out of the EU we will have more open immigration with OZ NZ Canada and possibly America.

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2 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

I would imagine there is also a form of white flight going on. Eg, EEs and pakistannis might be living eight to a room in one house, but the effect of that is that it ghettoises the rest of the street with noise, comings and goings at all hours, lack of parking spaces etc. So gradually the native families and couples want to move out, creating a demand for new build Barratt estates on greenfield land. So the new guests are not necessarily taking up new housing, but are partly creating a demand for it amongst the natives.

Definitely flight but I wouldn't call it white.In Leicester,all the kids from Sikh,Hindu,West Indian/Yugo/British backgrounds(the main ones I grew up with) are vacating the city.What you describe has occurred with EE's in mainly Pakistani areas,such that a lot of second gens of otehr ethnicities are upping sticks.I don't know why-possibly proximity to the Mosque/poss stronger community ties-second/third/fourth gen Pakistani's have stayed.A lot of the Hindu/Sikh/West Indian/White Brits kids I grew up with have moved out if they could afford to.

What gets left behind is the oldies who refuse to move,the people who can't afford to move out and the people who don't mind the changes.Having said that,I know many who refer to Leicester as some sort of multicultural paradise(including my Remainer family even though they all moved out to nice places years back) and it's anything but.However,the dividing lines these days are more cultural and religious than ethnicity on it's own, as you allude.And there are some real tensions growing between different groups.

Politically incorrect maybe,but how it is from my eyes.

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10 hours ago, kibuc said:

Immigration creates demand for housing, but not necessarily for BTL. If UK house prices were at they historical averages, selling your old place in Poland, Slovakia or Romania would be more than enough for a solid deposit, even in London.

Granted, not everyone came here with an intention of staying, you can find plenty of EEs who left their families back home and are happy to squeeze into an overloaded HMO for 2 or 3 years before heading back, but one could argue that they don't really create too much demand for housing if they are staying at the rate of 8 per room.

 

There seemed be quite a lot of polish and other EE builders starting up their own portfolio on HUTH (when i watched it a few years ago, maybe not now) so the increased immigration also has been increasing your number of BTL parasites.

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13 hours ago, Green Devil said:

There seemed be quite a lot of polish and other EE builders starting up their own portfolio on HUTH (when i watched it a few years ago, maybe not now) so the increased immigration also has been increasing your number of BTL parasites.

Yes Jinglys and Pakistanis love a bit of BTL.

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