Reddit discusses UK House prices

[spunko]

19 hours ago, Band said:

I do hope so, but im rather cynical as ive been waiting for a crash since 2003 ish ... i emailed Barrats last week about a house that is advertised at 270k and asked if theyd take 215k in cold hard cash (ie minus the 20% HTB inflation) ... i missed their call and was going to speak to them after the weekend but on the Friday it dropped 15k.  Thinking will see what happens over the coming months as even 215k is too much for what it is.

I know how hard it is to save this kind of money through physical manual labour, if others did they really wouldnt be spending so much on what in most cases is a pretty shite house.

Why are you even considering a Barrratt home ?

[Band]

1 minute ago, spunko said:

Why are you even considering a Barrratt home ?

As it would have been  the equivalent to a 2nd hand house if they take my offer.  

Its the same contractors on price work building all new builds i wouldnt think there is a whole lot of difference.

I'll bide my time a little yet.

 

 

[JoeDavola]

On 18/12/2018 at 11:20, A_P said:

Whatever you do, don't mention decreasing house prices to normies. Just been house hunting and doing viewings in NI this past weekend. Quite apparent the houses aren't selling, reductions happening, sellers at wits end. I mention to family this, looks like it the buyers are going to be in a strong position and opportunity for some low offers. I keep hearing "insulting" now. WTF is an insulting offer? Are you on my side or some random seller that you know nothing about ? 

Hey - I'm in NI and I've watched prices rise by a ridiculous amount from the last crash - I think we're due another crash. I'm also a cash buyer so was wanting to make lowball offers; refuse to pay the inflated prices that they're asking for these houses, especially in Belfast.

Whereabouts are you hearing that houses aren't selling, and what price point/type of house are we talking?

And yes, my parents also love house prices rising, even though it fucks both their kids over, and they also shoot me down when I suggest lower offers as if I'm committing a capital offense. I think people have a huge ego investment in their house rising in value, even though they'll never actually see any of that money.

[A_P]

40 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Hey - I'm in NI and I've watched prices rise by a ridiculous amount from the last crash - I think we're due another crash. I'm also a cash buyer so was wanting to make lowball offers; refuse to pay the inflated prices that they're asking for these houses, especially in Belfast.

Whereabouts are you hearing that houses aren't selling, and what price point/type of house are we talking?

And yes, my parents also love house prices rising, even though it fucks both their kids over, and they also shoot me down when I suggest lower offers as if I'm committing a capital offense. I think people have a huge ego investment in their house rising in value, even though they'll never actually see any of that money.

Just outside of Belfast in the range of £150-£200k and looking for a three bedroom detached ideally.  So probably a little different to what you see inside of city limits. Although I would suggest disregarding the list prices and agent waffle. Go and meet the vendors and its quite apparent things are not so rosey. One agent called me at 9am the following day to ask how the viewing went. Then tried to blag me that there was an offer put on the house. What between my Sunday afternoon viewing and you calling me? I dont think so....

I've been monitoring the area for about a year now and the houses we've shortlisted then are mostly still for sale. One house we are contemplating putting an offer on originally was listed for £225k, now £185k. They're on their second agent and have done work to the house that didn't need it on the advice of a friend. I asked for some follow up information from the EA and they had it back to me within the hour. Having a brew with the vendor seems like they really have only been close to one decent offer in that time, but they felt the parents where fronting the money and talked the person out of buying it. They weren't shy about saying how the people they're going to buy off are having similar pains and wanted to know how this viewing was going to go. They're all desperately waiting for someone to start the chain. How another friend of theirs turned down £250k a year ago and now isn't even getting interest now at £230k.

In all I had seven viewings booked in, all last minute, with the vendors themselves. Some that even cancelled or curtailed plans so we could view. In my opinion, seeing what I am in England and in NI, I think it's over now. Buyers and sellers in stalemate and now it's a question when and how far it falls. Me personally I don't care about how far it falls. I want to buy a house asap that I'm happy to live in, buy it and forget about it. Prices will go up and down and I'm sure that will happen several times if and while I own.

[Option5]

5 hours ago, spunko said:

Why are you even considering a Barrratt home ?

Not Barratt house I notice

To call them houses could possibly be against the trade descriptions legislation.

[A_P]

Here is another property one today. I think we will start seeing a lot of these. The sub could potentially be a good barometer.

Four EA's, doesn't want to lower the price of his property but happy to take advantage of lower prices when they buy again....you can't make it up 

[JoeDavola]

10 minutes ago, A_P said:

Just outside of Belfast in the range of £150-£200k and looking for a three bedroom detached ideally.  So probably a little different to what you see inside of city limits. Although I would suggest disregarding the list prices and agent waffle. Go and meet the vendors and its quite apparent things are not so rosey. One agent called me at 9am the following day to ask how the viewing went. Then tried to blag me that there was an offer put on the house. What between my Sunday afternoon viewing and you calling me? I dont think so....

I've been monitoring the area for about a year now and the houses we've shortlisted then are mostly still for sale. One house we are contemplating putting an offer on originally was listed for £225k, now £185k. They're on their second agent and have done work to the house that didn't need it on the advice of a friend. I asked for some follow up information from the EA and they had it back to me within the hour. Having a brew with the vendor seems like they really have only been close to one decent offer in that time, but they felt the parents where fronting the money and talked the person out of buying it. They weren't shy about saying how the people they're going to buy off are having similar pains and wanted to know how this viewing was going to go. They're all desperately waiting for someone to start the chain. How another friend of theirs turned down £250k a year ago and now isn't even getting interest now at £230k.

In all I had seven viewings booked in, all last minute, with the vendors themselves. Some that even cancelled or curtailed plans so we could view. In my opinion, seeing what I am in England and in NI, I think it's over now. Buyers and sellers in stalemate and now it's a question when and how far it falls. Me personally I don't care about how far it falls. I want to buy a house asap that I'm happy to live in, buy it and forget about it. Prices will go up and down and I'm sure that will happen several times if and while I own.

Fascinating.

Yes I think there's a stalemate and there needs to be some very public 'event' (financial collapse/significant IR rise) to shock sellers en masse into dropping their prices considerably after the last 5 years of ramping. I think a big percentage of current buyers in NI are helped by bank of mum and dad, and/or are people paying through the nose to get near a good school for their kids' sake.

I've got good cheap rent for the time being a 10 minute walk from work, and I've looked at places outside of Belfast to see if it would be worthwhile buying to get more for my money - but since I don't drive I'd be paying big money for the train (a grand a year to get me to Lisburn and back), so it doesn't seem worth the hassle right now since I don't need to house a family. I think I'll just be sitting and waiting for another year or two, and maxing out my S&S ISA every year.

[A_P]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Fascinating.

Yes I think there's a stalemate and there needs to be some very public 'event' (financial collapse/significant IR rise) to shock sellers en masse into dropping their prices considerably after the last 5 years of ramping. I think a big percentage of current buyers in NI are helped by bank of mum and dad, and/or are people paying through the nose to get near a good school for their kids' sake.

I've got good cheap rent for the time being a 10 minute walk from work, and I've looked at places outside of Belfast to see if it would be worthwhile buying to get more for my money - but since I don't drive I'd be paying big money for the train (a grand a year to get me to Lisburn and back), so it doesn't seem worth the hassle right now since I don't need to house a family. I think I'll just be sitting and waiting.

 I certainly wouldn't be surprised if parents are fronting it and I bet that most of BOMAD money is coming from equity release. My cousin was saying he bought with co-ownership and his property is an older semi. I thought that was a bit odd. I am slightly concerned they're going to do some more propping over there. I see ROI has a HTB similar to mainland too.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

On 18/12/2018 at 11:34, spunko said:

HMOs are a symptom of demand outstripping supply, the usual slavish answer is to "build more houses", but I prefer the one about cutting the demand, eg an easy way to do this is prevent 300k people/yr coming here. The human ponzi scheme must end along with the property ponzi.

Could even be a reasonable response if infrastructure was also being improved. The roads are full and decaying, public services are being reduced, the NHS is over capacity, schools are full and using excessive resources on things that were traditionally outside their remit, etc.

[Band]

6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Hey - I'm in NI and I've watched prices rise by a ridiculous amount from the last crash - I think we're due another crash. I'm also a cash buyer so was wanting to make lowball offers; refuse to pay the inflated prices that they're asking for these houses, especially in Belfast.

Whereabouts are you hearing that houses aren't selling, and what price point/type of house are we talking?

And yes, my parents also love house prices rising, even though it fucks both their kids over, and they also shoot me down when I suggest lower offers as if I'm committing a capital offense. I think people have a huge ego investment in their house rising in value, even though they'll never actually see any of that money.

My parents have had it drummed into them that prices are fucken mental, if for one moment they implied rising house prices were good or sustainable, theyd be off the Xmas card list.

But when i said i offered 20% less they said thats too much go for 10% ... clearly they need educating some more.

[spunko]

10 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Could even be a reasonable response if infrastructure was also being improved. The roads are full and decaying, public services are being reduced, the NHS is over capacity, schools are full and using excessive resources on things that were traditionally outside their remit, etc.

I don't agree with any more houses being built, the current number of dwellings in this country is already too much, a managed reduction in the population and tearing down of homes not lived in would be my ideal response.

Return the land back to woodland and meadows like it would have been for millennia.

9 hours ago, Band said:

My parents have had it drummed into them that prices are fucken mental, if for one moment they implied rising house prices were good or sustainable, theyd be off the Xmas card list.

But when i said i offered 20% less they said thats too much go for 10% ... clearly they need educating some more.

We are only a few months away from a potential No Deal brexit which is going to hit sentiment very hard indeed. I'd wait, there is a good chance 20% might look generous.

[Band]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

We are only a few months away from a potential No Deal brexit which is going to hit sentiment very hard indeed. I'd wait, there is a good chance 20% might look generous.

Yes, but on the other hand if this happens Carney will be printing like no tomorrow and despite his claims of raising interest rates which he done prior to the referendum he'll more likely go for a Negative interest rate policy.

Even a 20% fall means prices will still be higher than 2013 when HTB and Funding for lending sent prices insane and pushed more to be priced out,  arguably giving the extra numbers needed for leave to win the referendum. I was literally about to bite the bullet at the start of 2014 and buy at those insane prices but Gidiot/Carneys vile policies sent prices up 20k in a matter of months.

[spunko]

1 minute ago, Band said:

Yes, but on the other hand if this happens Carney will be printing like no tomorrow and despite his claims of raising interest rates which he done prior to the referendum he'll more likely go for a Negative interest rate policy.

Even a 20% fall means prices will still be higher than 2013 when HTB and Funding for lending sent prices insane and pushed more to be priced out,  arguably giving the extra numbers needed for leave to win the referendum. I was literally about to bite the bullet at the start of 2014 and buy at those insane prices but Gidiot/Carneys vile policies sent prices up 20k in a matter of months. 

Even if there is ZIR I can't see it doing much. Are people really going to buy a house just because they can save £30 a month suddenly, and put aside all the "panic" over Brexit which IMO is unfounded but people are idiots. Anyway, I can't see it!

[Band]

9 minutes ago, spunko said:

Even if there is ZIR I can't see it doing much. Are people really going to buy a house just because they can save £30 a month suddenly, and put aside all the "panic" over Brexit which IMO is unfounded but people are idiots. Anyway, I can't see it!

If lenders have cheap loose credit, people will borrow.

But tptb could well use brexit to let things crash, they know that an epic correction is coming this is the perfect scapegoat to hide their incompetence .. so as you can see i have no idea and things could go either way but more than likely as you imply prices are coming down, hence bide my time a little more.

Im getting contacted by a couple of councils who are almost at a stage to release plots for the right to build scheme, provided they are reasonably price i.e round the 50k mark (rip off i know) this is my preference.

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, Band said:

If lenders have cheap loose credit, people will borrow.

But tptb could well use brexit to let things crash, they know that an epic correction is coming this is the perfect scapegoat to hide their incompetence .. so as you can see i have no idea and things could go either way but more than likely as you imply prices are coming down, hence bide my time a little more.

Im getting contacted by a couple of councils who are almost at a stage to release plots for the right to build scheme, provided they are reasonably price i.e round the 50k mark (rip off i know) this is my preference.

I'm not at all sure about that. People borrow when they feel debt won't be a problem - because they will always have their jobs and if needs be, can sell the house for a profit.

It's a different story when suddenly doom and gloom strikes, people around you are losing jobs and house prices are plummeting. Suddenly, £300k debt sounds like a scary amount of money to owe.

Would you borrow £300k at 0% to buy bitcoin right now? How about -2%? -5%? How cheap would the debt have to be for you to consider it?

It's mostly about sentiment.

[Band]

10 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'm not at all sure about that. People borrow when they feel debt won't be a problem - because they will always have their jobs and if needs be, can sell the house for a profit.

It's a different story when suddenly doom and gloom strikes, people around you are losing jobs and house prices are plummeting. Suddenly, £300k debt sounds like a scary amount of money to owe.

Would you borrow £300k at 0% to buy bitcoin right now? How about -2%? -5%? How cheap would the debt have to be for you to consider it?

It's mostly about sentiment.

Im debt averse, so not the best person to give judgement.

What you are saying makes 100% sense to me and i fully agree anyone borrowing would be financially illiterate... but the people of England have shown themselves to be financially illiterate,

[A_P]

13 hours ago, Band said:

My parents have had it drummed into them that prices are fucken mental, if for one moment they implied rising house prices were good or sustainable, theyd be off the Xmas card list.

But when i said i offered 20% less they said thats too much go for 10% ... clearly they need educating some more.

I've been doing some calculations and 20% off in raw numbers I think is just too much for sellers no matter how reasonable to market conditions it may be. The emotional response is not going to be positive. Yet I'm sure they may be a little more responsive to 10% as an opening to negotiations.

Given the uncertainty going forward both politicly and economically any reasoned person would take that kind of offer into consideration. I could envisage you getting a bit more reception dealing with a business than individuals who react and behave irrationally. I'm sure the majority would rather hold out for an extra £xxxxx and lose a couple of years of their life in doing so, whilst the house prices continue to drop.

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, kibuc said:

I'm not at all sure about that. People borrow when they feel debt won't be a problem - because they will always have their jobs and if needs be, can sell the house for a profit.

It's a different story when suddenly doom and gloom strikes, people around you are losing jobs and house prices are plummeting. Suddenly, £300k debt sounds like a scary amount of money to owe.

Would you borrow £300k at 0% to buy bitcoin right now? How about -2%? -5%? How cheap would the debt have to be for you to consider it?

It's mostly about sentiment.

Drops in demand are the festure of the beginning of debt deflations.All of a sudden people jsut don't want to borrow anymore.

So much of the gumph I read on UK hosuing is by people with ever steady faith in credit demand who forget the last time it went south

[Band]

 

Article on working people having their money taken off them by the free market Tory party then given to those holding shares in building companies and their directors.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/22/housebuilders-deliver-record-2bn-payout-buoyed-help-buy/

The bumper figure compares with payouts of just £50m in 2012, when several major players scrapped their dividends, and a peak of around £500m before the financial crisis. Among the biggest payers was Taylor Wimpey, whose dividends totalled £450m, Barratt Homes, which paid out £435m, and Persimmon, which ­returned £417m.
Comments are good.

[JoeDavola]

On 20 December 2018 at 12:48, A_P said:

I've been doing some calculations and 20% off in raw numbers I think is just too much for sellers no matter how reasonable to market conditions it may be. The emotional response is not going to be positive. Yet I'm sure they may be a little more responsive to 10% as an opening to negotiations.

Given the uncertainty going forward both politicly and economically any reasoned person would take that kind of offer into consideration. I could envisage you getting a bit more reception dealing with a business than individuals who react and behave irrationally. I'm sure the majority would rather hold out for an extra £xxxxx and lose a couple of years of their life in doing so, whilst the house prices continue to drop.

Agree if a seller isn't desperate they won't take 20% less but remember how much things actually fell a few years back in NI when the shit did hit the fan - new builds being flogged by desperate builders at 50%+ off peak.

If mortgage lending gets expensive or dries up there could be a massacre in certain areas price wise.

[Durabo]

Homebuyers survey values house at £0!

I refuse to believe the vendors/agents didn't realise that the house had most of these issues. Absolute scum.

[spunko]

11 hours ago, Durabo said:

Homebuyers survey values house at £0!

I refuse to believe the vendors/agents didn't realise that the house had most of these issues. Absolute scum.

Not really relevant but I wonder how much they charge for a "horticultural survey" to identify japanese knotweed. That'd be a great little side earner it's so easy to identify a child could do it, all you need is a qualification from the RHS or something I suspect.

Anyway the fact that he "might walk away" I found hilarious. WTF!

[UnconventionalWisdom]

5 minutes ago, spunko said:

Anyway the fact that he "might walk away" I found hilarious. WTF!

Me too. People have had the "get on the property ladder at all costs" opinion shoved down their throats for so long that they will do almost anything. I was looking for a flat a few years ago in the SE and was shocked at the crap I saw. 

[sleepwello'nights]

On ‎15‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 22:29, Durabo said:

Homebuyers survey values house at £0!

I refuse to believe the vendors/agents didn't realise that the house had most of these issues. Absolute scum.

Of course the seller and his agent would be aware of those issues, all major. A lot depends on the circumstances of the seller. It sounds as if the current owner hasn't done any maintenance for years. It could be someone who is getting on in years who cant afford or be bothered with keeping the house sound. As long as its dry and warm then its fine for them. Could be how some Dosbodders live . It may even be a probate sale, the post only gives details of the condition of the house not the circumstances of sale. 

Even if the house is about to fall down it will have some value even if it is the land it stands on. Round where I live the plot is often worth more than the house. A few years ago I recall a particular house that would probably sell for around £700k being sold as two plots for £600k each. The house would be demolished to sell both plots!  

[A_P]

Here's another good one, person thinks they've got an amazing deal after negotiating a 10% discount on a £600k new build, so i assume london area. Two posts with details, one on their own thread and one in reply to another.