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What's going to collapse next...


TheCountOfNowhere

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There is the Wirecard thing.

Exposed by the FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/d51a012e-1d6f-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

Then the Germans Pols/regualtor kick in - remember these are the people that we are told are grown ups, good guys, etc etc.

They ban short selling the stock.

https://www.ft.com/content/2997a4b2-255f-11e9-8ce6-5db4543da632

https://www.ft.com/content/25f9a94c-3354-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5

Now the executive who was launderign the the revenue has gone missing

https://www.ft.com/content/dcf600f2-44be-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3

Is he hiding?

has he jumped off a toer block??

 

Stay tuned!

This is interstign as itll show the german authorities + Pols as being otally useless ad gormless.

 

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leonardratso

whats all those stories about subscribing to the FT, really boring stories, couldnt they put some pictures in it?

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Niche mortgage lenders (BTL? / poor credit rating? / self employed?) are feeling the pinch  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6804345/amp/Another-mortgage-lender-closes-doors-investors-fright.html 

From the link "Sub-prime mortgage lender Magellan Homeloans has called time on all new lending with immediate effect, claiming competitive pressures in the mortgage market." & "It is the fourth specialist lender to shut up shop in three months, following the closures of buy-to-let specialist Fleet Mortgages, Secure Trust Bank and Amicus. "

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7 hours ago, Andersen said:

Niche mortgage lenders (BTL? / poor credit rating? / self employed?) are feeling the pinch  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6804345/amp/Another-mortgage-lender-closes-doors-investors-fright.html 

From the link "Sub-prime mortgage lender Magellan Homeloans has called time on all new lending with immediate effect, claiming competitive pressures in the mortgage market." & "It is the fourth specialist lender to shut up shop in three months, following the closures of buy-to-let specialist Fleet Mortgages, Secure Trust Bank and Amicus. "

Coped from my link on ToS!

Majority of lendign is moving to max 4x LTE/20-30% deposit.

Outside of that youll find limited fiannce.

Whats happending is that each time a BTL goes to remortgage, they are asked to throw more equity in - 'To get the best deal ''''

The smucks are fallign for this, 1 or 2 times.

Next round of refi will see them unabke to withdraw any more equity from OO, so theyll be forced to sell.

At some point IO mortgages will be effectively banned, becomign so expesnive that youd have to be a total idiot with moeny to do them.

Its so obviois. I know of a few 1-3 BTLers doing this at the mo.

Ive nto told them,

 

 

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leonardratso
43 minutes ago, Wig said:

Met that guy in a lift the other day. Got chatting to him and his family, mega nice chap.

did he give you man hug?

followed by a lift bj?

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Castlevania
22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I like Ted Baker. Mainly because their clothes fit me almost perfectly. It’s almost as if they took my proportions when deciding on the size of their Large sized clothes. Expensive but good quality - better than most other similar priced brands.

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sancho panza
3 hours ago, spygirl 🏆 said:

Coped from my link on ToS!

Majority of lendign is moving to max 4x LTE/20-30% deposit.

Outside of that youll find limited fiannce.

Whats happending is that each time a BTL goes to remortgage, they are asked to throw more equity in - 'To get the best deal ''''

The smucks are fallign for this, 1 or 2 times.

Next round of refi will see them unabke to withdraw any more equity from OO, so theyll be forced to sell.

At some point IO mortgages will be effectively banned, becomign so expesnive that youd have to be a total idiot with moeny to do them.

Its so obviois. I know of a few 1-3 BTLers doing this at the mo.

Ive nto told them,

 

 

They don't even realise generally that their own home is at risk if they default on their BTL mortgages.I could say I have sympathy for them but it would be an outright lie.

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sancho panza
11 hours ago, Andersen said:

Niche mortgage lenders (BTL? / poor credit rating? / self employed?) are feeling the pinch  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6804345/amp/Another-mortgage-lender-closes-doors-investors-fright.html 

From the link "Sub-prime mortgage lender Magellan Homeloans has called time on all new lending with immediate effect, claiming competitive pressures in the mortgage market." & "It is the fourth specialist lender to shut up shop in three months, following the closures of buy-to-let specialist Fleet Mortgages, Secure Trust Bank and Amicus. "

'Thanks for posting.good read.

'Fleet Mortgages, a specialist buy-to-let lender, was forced to close its doors to new lending on 8 January after failing to secure finance from investors to fund any more new loans. 

The previous day, Secure Trust Bank confirmed it would cease offering new mortgages immediately due to 'market pressures...competition intensifying, as evidenced by increasing loan-to-value metrics and lower new lending margins'.

In mid-December, Amicus - a specialist lender offering short-term mortgages to property developers and landlords - was forced to stop all new lending and on 4 January confirmed the business had been put into administration. 

Housing market is weaker in 2019 

It follows increasing uncertainty in the housing market, fuelled by a lack of clarity around Britain's exit from the European Union, scheduled for the end of this month. 

The latest figures from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors showed a property market in decline. 

During January, new buyer enquiries fell again at the headline level marking the sixth successive monthly decline. 

What’s more, demand declined to some degree across virtually all parts of the UK. Scotland was a slight exception, but even there the trend was only flat.

Alongside weakening demand, the number of new properties being listed on the sales market also deteriorated, with the net balance reading of -25 per cent the weakest since July 2016.

Agreed sales also fell further, with the pace of decline seemingly gathering momentum compared to December.

Meanwhile house price growth has been slowing for several months and in some parts of the country values are falling. 

Nationwide's latest house price index revealed that month-on-month, the average cost of a home slipped by 0.1 per cent between January and February.

This month, average house prices have been just 0.4 per cent higher than they were this time a year ago.

A senior source at a UK challenger bank told This is Money that the failures could in part be put down to investors taking fright.

'Bank funding of specialists is always the first to go belly up - that's what happened at Amicus in December. 

'The next to go is private investor money,' said the source. Both Fleet and Magellan are funded all or partly in this way. 

The UK money markets are also deathly quiet, according to the source.  

'Spreads in the whole market have blown out over the past year with the cost of funds now 50, 60, 70 basis points higher than they were in the first half of last year. 

'A year ago, mortgage backed securities were priced at 65bps over Libor on senior notes. Now it's more like 125bps over Libor. Investor confidence has dropped back to what it was back in 2007/8.

Writing in an industry blog, Lynda Blackwell, the former mortgage sector manager at the Financial Conduct Authority and now an independent consultant, said: 'On the face of it, the market appears highly competitive: we’re seeing intense price competition, new lenders coming to market and increasing numbers of products available. 

'Break the surface and things don’t seem so rosy. There are over 140 active lenders in the market today but the top six account for around 73 per cent of total residential lending in the UK. That leaves 136-plus active lenders chasing a 27 per cent share.

'Those lenders can’t possibly compete with the top six, with their massive funding advantage and dominant position in the market.

'These lenders need to price for the risk they are taking and need those margins to survive. But they also need to be able to compete on price, or at least be in the same ball park.

'So they inevitably react to the aggressive pricing we are seeing at the super-prime end of the market. Margins are squeezed. And wholesale-funded lenders need to price to offset funding costs.

'Higher funding costs in the wholesale markets is putting pressure on already thin profit margins. With consumer confidence falling, rumours of a recession and house prices under pressure, it’s a brave originator who will looking to acquire mortgages other than low loan-to-value prime.'

.' 

Edited by sancho panza
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13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

They don't even realise generally that their own home is at risk if they default on their BTL mortgages.I could say I have sympathy for them but it would be an outright lie.

Hand the keys back.

Thats what Ive had as a response to 3+ IO BTLs when I ask  them how theyll cope with 3+ months voids.

Hand the keys back.

The uber BTLer I know had the genius idea of using his Mums address so theyd not be able to find him if it went tits up.

Did you give them your name and NI number?

Yes, he replied, they insist on it.

Less Moriaty, more moron.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

'Thanks for posting.good read.

'Fleet Mortgages, a specialist buy-to-let lender, was forced to close its doors to new lending on 8 January after failing to secure finance from investors to fund any more new loans. 

The previous day, Secure Trust Bank confirmed it would cease offering new mortgages immediately due to 'market pressures...competition intensifying, as evidenced by increasing loan-to-value metrics and lower new lending margins'.

In mid-December, Amicus - a specialist lender offering short-term mortgages to property developers and landlords - was forced to stop all new lending and on 4 January confirmed the business had been put into administration. 

Housing market is weaker in 2019 

It follows increasing uncertainty in the housing market, fuelled by a lack of clarity around Britain's exit from the European Union, scheduled for the end of this month. 

The latest figures from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors showed a property market in decline. 

During January, new buyer enquiries fell again at the headline level marking the sixth successive monthly decline. 

What’s more, demand declined to some degree across virtually all parts of the UK. Scotland was a slight exception, but even there the trend was only flat.

Alongside weakening demand, the number of new properties being listed on the sales market also deteriorated, with the net balance reading of -25 per cent the weakest since July 2016.

Agreed sales also fell further, with the pace of decline seemingly gathering momentum compared to December.

Meanwhile house price growth has been slowing for several months and in some parts of the country values are falling. 

Nationwide's latest house price index revealed that month-on-month, the average cost of a home slipped by 0.1 per cent between January and February.

This month, average house prices have been just 0.4 per cent higher than they were this time a year ago.

A senior source at a UK challenger bank told This is Money that the failures could in part be put down to investors taking fright.

'Bank funding of specialists is always the first to go belly up - that's what happened at Amicus in December. 

'The next to go is private investor money,' said the source. Both Fleet and Magellan are funded all or partly in this way. 

The UK money markets are also deathly quiet, according to the source.  

'Spreads in the whole market have blown out over the past year with the cost of funds now 50, 60, 70 basis points higher than they were in the first half of last year. 

'A year ago, mortgage backed securities were priced at 65bps over Libor on senior notes. Now it's more like 125bps over Libor. Investor confidence has dropped back to what it was back in 2007/8.

Writing in an industry blog, Lynda Blackwell, the former mortgage sector manager at the Financial Conduct Authority and now an independent consultant, said: 'On the face of it, the market appears highly competitive: we’re seeing intense price competition, new lenders coming to market and increasing numbers of products available. 

'Break the surface and things don’t seem so rosy. There are over 140 active lenders in the market today but the top six account for around 73 per cent of total residential lending in the UK. That leaves 136-plus active lenders chasing a 27 per cent share.

'Those lenders can’t possibly compete with the top six, with their massive funding advantage and dominant position in the market.

'These lenders need to price for the risk they are taking and need those margins to survive. But they also need to be able to compete on price, or at least be in the same ball park.

'So they inevitably react to the aggressive pricing we are seeing at the super-prime end of the market. Margins are squeezed. And wholesale-funded lenders need to price to offset funding costs.

'Higher funding costs in the wholesale markets is putting pressure on already thin profit margins. With consumer confidence falling, rumours of a recession and house prices under pressure, it’s a brave originator who will looking to acquire mortgages other than low loan-to-value prime.'

.' 

If you cannot afford a prime (usign the US term) mortgage - uner 4x LTE, 20% deposit, then you cannot afford the non-standard mortgage terms.

Its that simple,

Not that all the dumb BSes have worked out how much their specialist lending will cost them.

 

Theres too man banks + BS's chasing too little business.

50% have to go.

 

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leonardratso
3 minutes ago, Wig said:

Met that guy in a lift the other day. Got chatting to him and his family, mega nice chap.

what again?

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2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

what again?

I met that guy in a lift the other day and I got chatting to him and his family. He is a mega nice chap.

 

Edited by Wig
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leonardratso
20 minutes ago, Wig said:

I met that guy in a lift the other day and I got chatting to him and his family. He is a mega nice chap.

 

no i meant youve met the ted baker guy in a lift with his family twice now, three times if you include that one. Does he and his family just hang about in a lift?

Did you mention his hugging?

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

no i meant youve met the ted baker guy in a lift with his family twice now, three times if you include that one. Does he and his family just hang about in a lift?

Did you mention his hugging?

Haha did I already mention it? Short term memory only

 

i don’t get the hugging or other  references 

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

Surely it is the only thing he's famous for.

Ted baker? I like his gear. Own a few tops. I go shopping less than once a year so he’s doing something right I guess 

 

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Ill go out on a limb and say Sirius Minerals.

They'll stretch out the CEOs  salary for another 2 months then hell fuck off to Oz, leaving a big hlle i nhe ground and loads of small private investors wondering what happened to all their money.

 

 

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sancho panza
On 16/03/2019 at 06:48, Ash4781b said:

Intu Plc  continue to look in bad shape. Also reports that Arcadia group will embark on a restructuring. 

https://news.sky.com/story/green-to-launch-arcadia-restructuring-within-weeks-11666034

E2341D52-20D8-4F2C-833D-23E4DF91FCE0.jpeg

Was speaking to a friend on a reunion last night who's made good over the years shopfitting.Says thing shave never been this quiet EVER before.He's been through a few recessions.
Obviously,no surprise to readers of this forum or sites like Shedlock and Wolf St.I remember him asking me to help him out years ago doing overnight refits.. it was big business. Now he's actually started taking on domestic work again.I think this is the beginning of teh end for the likes of Intu.The long list of dept store failures keeps getting added to and these were the anchor stores.Also,in places like Leicester tehy've incresingly made it hard to drive in because they're so green,little realising peopole will jsut use the out of twon centres .

Leicester's 'big kahuna' moment will be when they shut the john Lewis dept store.So much retail space with so few customers.And they're probably rent free as well.All the little burger shops charging a tenner for bap will close sooner.

 

The twenbty year view is more compelling

image.png.a28629ce5eca6b381f6a918c8502d939.png

 

Edit to add,I'm a value punter,there is no value in that stock imho

Edited by sancho panza
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5 hours ago, spygirl 🏆 said:

Ill go out on a limb and say Sirius Minerals.

They'll stretch out the CEOs  salary for another 2 months then hell fuck off to Oz, leaving a big hlle i nhe ground and loads of small private investors wondering what happened to all their money.

It is certainly an interesting one.  They need funding, and if it doesn't turn up the value is zero.  People believe that the gov will fund it, and I think they will eventually, but not necessarily in the lifetime of the current ltd company.

9 minutes ago, xiox said:

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank in formal merger talks

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47602571

It is nice that they're solving the problem by merging HBOS and Lloyds.

Oops, just got stuck in a time loop.  

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