What's going to collapse next...

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, dgul said:

That is interesting.

I think all their loans are backed by property, and they've got the usual documentation showing how secure their business is (or, that investors will get their money back).  I'd imagine that the publicity of people losing money will have a seriously detrimental effect on other P2P lenders.

My guess - and ive no proof - is theres been loads of property fuckwittery funded by the likes of Lendy.

Taking in huge risk, charging high rates, then the borrower fucks up.

Ive just seen so many deals where ive scratched my head on where tye finance has come from.

 

 

[Kurt Barlow]

58 minutes ago, dgul said:

That is interesting.

I think all their loans are backed by property, and they've got the usual documentation showing how secure their business is (or, that investors will get their money back).  I'd imagine that the publicity of people losing money will have a seriously detrimental effect on other P2P lenders.

About 60% of their loan book is in default and as such their income stream has dried up. 

As the loan booked is secured against property investors should get a % of their investments back. How long this will take is any ones guess. 

[dgul]

2 hours ago, Kurt Barlow said:

About 60% of their loan book is in default and as such their income stream has dried up. 

As the loan booked is secured against property investors should get a % of their investments back. How long this will take is any ones guess. 

My thought process is that there are loads of P2P companies, and for the most part investor due diligence is going online and believing the info about how protected they are.  But if a large one fails and investors aren't made good despite all the lovely protections, then other P2P lenders will get withdrawals, even if their investor protection mechanisms are actually good.  This'll impact on availability of loans for some.

[Kurt Barlow]

11 hours ago, dgul said:

My thought process is that there are loads of P2P companies, and for the most part investor due diligence is going online and believing the info about how protected they are.  But if a large one fails and investors aren't made good despite all the lovely protections, then other P2P lenders will get withdrawals, even if their investor protection mechanisms are actually good.  This'll impact on availability of loans for some.

There is a risk of contagion. 

Lendy was quite small at <200m in funds. 

I will stick with ZOPA, Funding Circle and Ratesetter. 

[spygirl]

14 hours ago, dgul said:

That is interesting.

I think all their loans are backed by property, and they've got the usual documentation showing how secure their business is (or, that investors will get their money back).  I'd imagine that the publicity of people losing money will have a seriously detrimental effect on other P2P lenders.

Id have a rpoblm wit hte sort of idots and project on Lendys books.

By all accounts Lendy balls deeps in small time property developers - one build at a time.

There's so e much bullshit and bollox regarding prices/sold etc.

I was talking to a bloke in the pub. He's spent the last 18 months as the resident  tradesman on a build.

'Oh they bought it for 900k. sold it for 1.5m'

All bollox.

A quick look at the LR shows it was bought for 400k and sold for 480k.

Which sounds good til you  realise they held the property for ~4 years. So, ~@3% (which is way too low for commercial developemtn; use d for illustration purposes). thats 12k/t interest, so about 50k.

Then there was the refurb cost - pay and materials.

I reckon they lost a few 10k on it - and thats not accounting for the developer's times.

Nuts.

This sort of lending,, at the UKs current property price multiples is pure picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

[Kurt Barlow]

10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Id have a rpoblm wit hte sort of idots and project on Lendys books.

By all accounts Lendy balls deeps in small time property developers - one build at a time.

There's so e much bullshit and bollox regarding prices/sold etc.

I was talking to a bloke in the pub. He's spent the last 18 months as the resident  tradesman on a build.

'Oh they bought it for 900k. sold it for 1.5m'

All bollox.

A quick look at the LR shows it was bought for 400k and sold for 480k.

Which sounds good til you  realise they held the property for ~4 years. So, ~@3% (which is way too low for commercial developemtn; use d for illustration purposes). thats 12k/t interest, so about 50k.

Then there was the refurb cost - pay and materials.

I reckon they lost a few 10k on it - and thats not accounting for the developer's times.

Nuts.

This sort of lending,, at the UKs current property price multiples is pure picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

 a lot of their loan book is bespoke new build student accommodation. I quite liked this because it does one on the BTL'Rs and is actually putting new supply into the market. 

[Andersen]

Johnston & Johnston? December 2018 news : "Shares in Johnson & Johnson plunged more than 10% on Friday, after Reuters reported that the US pharmaceutical giant had known about asbestos tainting its talcum powder for decades." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46572536 

Shares looked like they had recovered but now I'm not so sure  

[MrXxx]

10 hours ago, Andersen said:

Johnston & Johnston? December 2018 news : "Shares in Johnson & Johnson plunged more than 10% on Friday, after Reuters reported that the US pharmaceutical giant had known about asbestos tainting its talcum powder for decades." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46572536 

Shares looked like they had recovered but now I'm not so sure  

I suppose they thought that they could brush it under the carpet and forget about it!

[Harley]

In case this has not been mentioned....

https://uk.fashionnetwork.com/news/Monsoon-in-urgent-talks-on-its-future-CVA-is-a-possibility,1103378.html

When it rains, it rains

Edited May 30, 2019 by Harley

[gibbon]

On 22/05/2019 at 12:37, spygirl said:

Great example of the saying turnover is vanity profit is sanity. Amazing that fuck wit couldn't make profit on a restaurant chain based on selling a plate of 10p's worth of pasta for £15 and one of the biggest cooking brands. Imagine the bankers, financiers and accountants done well out of him though pushing to keep opening restaurants and take on more debt.

I reckon we'll start to see the end of these big restaurant chains (and good riddance), too much debt, shit food "cooked" from a brakes brothers pouch by un-skilled EE'ers, unessential back office staff, big leases where the rent only go up every 4 years and ultimately too slow to keep up with consumer tastes.

[gibbon]

On 27/05/2019 at 20:44, Kurt Barlow said:

About 60% of their loan book is in default and as such their income stream has dried up. 

As the loan booked is secured against property investors should get a % of their investments back. How long this will take is any ones guess. 

Fuck I just looked into them, who in their right mind would lend property developers, the biggest sharks out there? I know someone years back got hold a very large building. Decided to turn it into about 20 flats. She didn't have access to the funds so went in with a property developer, he'd fund it and do the building work and they'd split the flats between them once the initial flats covered the build cost. Do you see where this is going?

When all was said and done she got absolutely fucked by him, the build costs magically increased by orders of magnitude and absorbed nearly all the flats. In the end she walked away with 3 or 4. 

[sancho panza]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/boots-looking-to-close-more-than-200-stores-a4153066.html

Up to 200 Boots stores are at risk of closure, it has been reported.

The chain's American owner, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), is said to have put hundreds of outlets under review as part of a restructuring plan. 

Sky News reports that more than 200 of the chain’s stores have been put under a two-year review. 

Sources told Sky News that a significant number of the stores are likely to be axed, although no formal decision has been made about stores which are at risk.

 

Towns which have several branches of the pharmacy chain will be under scrutiny, while branches approaching the end of their lease will also be looked at. 

 

 

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/05/uks-4-biggest-shopping-centre-landlords-face-long-term-risk-from-cvas/

Four of the UK’s biggest retail landlords are heavily exposed to struggling retailers and CVAs, according to new research.

Analysis from UBS has warned that around 20 per cent of shopping centre floorspace being let by the likes of British Land, Landsec, Hammerson and Intu are retailers that are either at risk of launching an insolvency procedure or are already in the midst of a CVA or administration.

UBS’s data came from 1477 retailers and 5666 stores across 50 shopping centres, and was based on weighing up floorspace exposure to struggling retailers rather than the typical industry metric of rental income.

For that reason, the investment bank said its findings were “significantly higher than the companies’ reported rent impacted by CVAs, which ranges from 2.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent of rental income”.

In addition, many of the struggling retailers have managed to either avoid store closures or succeed in securing some lower rents in their portfolios.

“The big unknown is the hits to the rental income,” UBS head of European real estate Osmaan Malik said.

“All of the retailers could decide ‘we’re going to go through CVAs, we’re going to cut our rents or we are going to move out of the centres that we don’t want to be in’, so it’s very difficult to judge.”

UBS said its analysis backed up its “already cautious” sentiments of the retail property sector.

It also reiterated its forecast of a further 20 per cent fall in the valuations of for shopping centres over the next two to three years.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by sancho panza

[Ash4781b]

On 30/05/2019 at 21:46, sancho panza said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/boots-looking-to-close-more-than-200-stores-a4153066.html

Up to 200 Boots stores are at risk of closure, it has been reported.

The chain's American owner, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), is said to have put hundreds of outlets under review as part of a restructuring plan. 

Sky News reports that more than 200 of the chain’s stores have been put under a two-year review. 

Sources told Sky News that a significant number of the stores are likely to be axed, although no formal decision has been made about stores which are at risk.

 

Towns which have several branches of the pharmacy chain will be under scrutiny, while branches approaching the end of their lease will also be looked at. 

 

 

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/05/uks-4-biggest-shopping-centre-landlords-face-long-term-risk-from-cvas/

Four of the UK’s biggest retail landlords are heavily exposed to struggling retailers and CVAs, according to new research.

Analysis from UBS has warned that around 20 per cent of shopping centre floorspace being let by the likes of British Land, Landsec, Hammerson and Intu are retailers that are either at risk of launching an insolvency procedure or are already in the midst of a CVA or administration.

UBS’s data came from 1477 retailers and 5666 stores across 50 shopping centres, and was based on weighing up floorspace exposure to struggling retailers rather than the typical industry metric of rental income.

For that reason, the investment bank said its findings were “significantly higher than the companies’ reported rent impacted by CVAs, which ranges from 2.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent of rental income”.

In addition, many of the struggling retailers have managed to either avoid store closures or succeed in securing some lower rents in their portfolios.

“The big unknown is the hits to the rental income,” UBS head of European real estate Osmaan Malik said.

“All of the retailers could decide ‘we’re going to go through CVAs, we’re going to cut our rents or we are going to move out of the centres that we don’t want to be in’, so it’s very difficult to judge.”

UBS said its analysis backed up its “already cautious” sentiments of the retail property sector.

It also reiterated its forecast of a further 20 per cent fall in the valuations of for shopping centres over the next two to three years.

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks. The retailers’ have to push back in this area as it’s least resistance. I can’t see much getting down costs in other area such as business rates , taxes and wages.    National Minimum wage will keep rising and the £:dollar exchange rate looks unfavourable. 

As an aside I’m watching car leasing costs (appear to be rising). Definitely the potential to cause an impact on consumer spending. How are the car finance companies holding up?

 

Edited June 1, 2019 by Ash4781b

[sancho panza]

On 01/06/2019 at 07:30, Ash4781b said:

Thanks. The retailers’ have to push back in this area as it’s least resistance. I can’t see much getting down costs in other area such as business rates , taxes and wages.    National Minimum wage will keep rising and the £:dollar exchange rate looks unfavourable. 

As an aside I’m watching car leasing costs (appear to be rising). Definitely the potential to cause an impact on consumer spending. How are the car finance companies holding up?

 

Off the top of your head,do you know who the big ones are Ash?

Edited June 2, 2019 by sancho panza

[Democorruptcy]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Off the top of your head,do you know who the big ones are Ash?

I had a quick google and it seems to be the bankster's usual suspects according to leaseurope stats

2017

No data for 2018

[Chewing Grass]

Leasing is only viable in a low interest rate environment, residual values of certain vehicles when the leases were taken out were insane,  pre 2016 diesels being a prime example (ulez).

How many plebs can afford a 48K car on a lease if rates were over 5%?

Round my neck of the woods the folks with the least to spend have the flashest cars, Fiesta street of the 90s is now Merc/BMW/JLR street!

 

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I had a quick google and it seems to be the bankster's usual suspects according to leaseurope stats

2017

No data for 2018

Cheers DM, it is the same old names,and some strange price/car volumes as well.Clearly some lower end.

 

[sancho panza]

meant to add this one earlier

services to chocolate .............................

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/05/chocolate-retailer-rococo-enters-administration/

Luxury chocolate retailer Rococo has fallen into administration

// Insolvency specialists from BDO have been appointed to take care of the procedure

// A new buyer is being sought for the business

// Rococo’s five stores are operating as per usual for now and no redundancies have been made

---

Luxury chocolate retailer Rococo has fallen into administration, making it the latest victim of the UK’s tough high street conditions.

According to Press Association, the chocolatier appointed insolvency specialists BDO LLP as administrators on Thursday May 23.

Rococo is now searching for a buyer after bosses admitted they have been hit by “negative trading conditions”.

The chocolate brand employs 66 staff according to its most recent company accounts, and trades from five stores in London as well as online.

Rococo’s stores are continuing to trade and no redundancies have yet been made.

The business was founded in 1983 by Chantal Coady when she was 23, who has since written five books and was awarded an OBE in 2014 for “services to chocolate”.

On the day administrators were drafted in for Rococo, she tweeted:

BDO administrators Kerry Bailey and Danny Dartnaill are leading the search for a potential buyer for the business.

“Difficult trading conditions negatively impacted the company’s working capital position and an administration was required to provide a stable financial platform to rescue the company,” Dartnail said.

“The joint administrators are continuing to trade Rococo Chocolates and are hopeful that a purchaser for the company or the business will be found.”

[Frank Hovis]

Rococo Chocolates is yet another vanity operation that gets a few good years of being funded by wealthy idiots buying their products because they're in fashion. File under cupcake producers.

Also it's one of several such businesses where the first I've heard of them is their going bust.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

Rococo Chocolates is yet another vanity operation that gets a few good years of being funded by wealthy idiots buying their products because they're in fashion. File under cupcake producers.

Also it's one of several such businesses where the first I've heard of them is their going bust.

But a very sad day for chocolate!

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Rococo Chocolates is yet another vanity operation that gets a few good years of being funded by wealthy idiots buying their products because they're in fashion. File under chinless cupcake producers.

Also it's one of several such businesses where the first I've heard of them is their going bust.

There is an obvious class thing going on wit these pointless companies.

Posh/private schools unemployable - handmade choccies or maybe big games tours in Africa

Middleclass - cupcake shops/.bunting.

Plebs - dog grooming.

Vietnamese slaves - nail bars.

[Errol]

Rococo have just been beaten by Hotel Chocolat, which is doing very well.

[Bedrag Justesen]

21 hours ago, spygirl said:

There is an obvious class thing going on wit these pointless companies.

Posh/private schools unemployable - handmade choccies or maybe big games tours in Africa.

Set up PR company.

Rent office on a local council or government start up scheme.

Employ three or four dolly birds as interns.

Tap family friends as clients, charge them for website management, social media and local advertising.

Sponsor local promotion events at days out, evening receptions for networking.

Attract more clients by constantly posting how wonderful everything is on Facebook by setting up awards nobody has heard of, won by circle of friends and family.

Invite hyper-local news editors to all events giving free food and drinks in return for complimentary coverage.

Pay mortgage, car leases, and whatever else you can through the company. Claim maximum allowances, tax reliefs and support.

Close down company when all incentives expire. Make staff redundant, they can claim redundancy from government.

Start up again under new name. 

Eventually all local clients realise you are a complete waste of time and money.

Move to another area and start again. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Bedrag Justesen

[spygirl]

Just now, Bedrag Justesen said:

Set up PR company.

Rent office on a local council or government start up scheme.

Employ three or four dolly birds as interns.

Tap family friends as clients, charge them for website management, social media and local advertising.

Sponsor local promotion events at days out, evening receptions for networking.

Attract more clients by constantly posting how wonderful everything is on Facebook by setting up awards nobody has heard of, won by circle of friends and family.

Invite hyper-local news editors to all events giving free food and drinks in return for complimentary coverage.

Pay mortgage, car leases, and whatever else you can through the company. Claim maximum allwances, tax reliefs and support.

Close down company when all incentives expire. Make staff redundant, they can claim redundancy from government.

Start up again under new name. 

Eventually all local clients realise you are a complete waste of time and money.

Move to another area and start again. 

Become MP, become PM, fuckit up. Quit.

 

[Bedrag Justesen]

Intu Properties voting against the Arcadia restructuring.

They can't publicly reveal they are lowering rents for Green.

Surprising if they can't agree something privately.

Lot of empty units if not.