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What's going to collapse next...


TheCountOfNowhere

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7 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Not many steel works though. If we need to build or recommission in the event of a conventional war, say to repel a Franco German invasion, then the time needed to do so could seriously impact our defence capability.  

No. Bit like saying we need to keep a horses.

Its unlikely the UK would get into a conventional war with any country within 100miles distance.

Most ofthe army kit and soldiers is waste of money.

The wats which well fight will involve missiles, not tanks.

 

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30 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No. Bit like saying we need to keep a horses.

Its unlikely the UK would get into a conventional war with any country within 100miles distance.

Most ofthe army kit and soldiers is waste of money.

The wats which well fight will involve missiles, not tanks.

 

You’ve not been following Brexit closely have you. :)

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On ‎01‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 06:30, spygirl said:

You sound like one of the idiots who live on the sirius BBs.

Steel is not really strategic, theres lot of it around.

And the military that uses a lot of steel - big boats and tanks - are pretty useless against missiles

America, Russia and China would still consider steel and the steel manufacturing process to be strategic. Just look how many tanks, ships and armoured fighting vehicles they are all still building. Lots and lots.

Ship building is another strategic industry. As is agriculture (for obvious reasons).

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sancho panza
On 01/10/2019 at 13:31, Sasquatch said:

Marcus Worthington Construction have gone bang today. There's a part finished student development of theirs near us that won't be opening any time soon.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/10/01/marcus-worthington-files-intent-to-appoint-administrator/

 

Genuinely...wtf????

' One of the family-owned group’s funders, Cumberland Building Society, appointed PwC as administrator late yesterday. '

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Genuinely...wtf????

' One of the family-owned group’s funders, Cumberland Building Society, appointed PwC as administrator late yesterday. '

kin hell things getting messy

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On 02/10/2019 at 09:25, spygirl said:

Vern at MetroBank is off.

I wonder if the dog stays?

SP responds by falling 5%....

 

New debt issue: £350m at 9.5%!  Annual interest will be higher than the highest (after tax) profit they ever had.  What am I missing?

Quote
Income Statement: 31/12/2018 31/12/2017 31/12/2016 31/12/2015 31/12/2014
  £ (Millions) £ (Millions) £ (Millions) £ (Millions) £ (Millions)
Revenue: 404.10 293.80 195.11 120.20 75.45
Operating Profit / (Loss): 40.60 18.70 (17.20) (56.80) (48.87)
Net Interest: n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Profit Before Tax: 40.60 18.70 (17.20) (56.80) (48.87)
Profit after tax from continuing operations: 27.10 10.80 (16.75) (49.20) (41.11)

 

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18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Genuinely...wtf????

' One of the family-owned group’s funders, Cumberland Building Society, appointed PwC as administrator late yesterday. '

Never heard of them. They can always be rolled onto the Nationwide if it goes wrong!

I’ve not gone through the financialS which are for a lender easy ish to follow https://www.cumberland.co.uk/neon/download/file/pdfs/18-19-Annual-Report-Accounts.pdf

 

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7 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

New debt issue: £350m at 9.5%!  Annual interest will be higher than the highest (after tax) profit they ever had.  What am I missing?

 

The income that the managers and director are drawing from this turkey.

The sensible thing to do would be to put your hand up and say 'We fucked up' and scale back.

However ... that would involve losing job and never working in banking again.

Or just brassneck it out, drawing benefits, until the shit hits the fan and - hopefully - someone buys you out and you get paid off to fuck off elsewhere, probably not banking.

However ... I dont think anyones going to touch MB. What have they got? Loads of expensive real estate leases and a wrongly classified mortgage book.

Fuckthat,

 

 

 

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On 03/10/2019 at 12:45, sancho panza said:

Genuinely...wtf????

' One of the family-owned group’s funders, Cumberland Building Society, appointed PwC as administrator late yesterday. '

Nah, this was how local building societies used to offer.

They were set up so people could buy a house.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_society

Local BS used to be well plugged into the local economy, so knew which companies were laying off people, which builders were good or bust ect etc.

 

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Bedrag Justesen
5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

To be honest, I always assumed that JL got really really low rents as most Malls relied on a big JL to pull people.

Holding back partial service charges too ?

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1 minute ago, Bedrag Justesen said:

Holding back partial service charges too ?

There's seems to be a bit of alarm with these recent updates.

Sort of running around ,tunrign the lights off to save money.

JL may be in serious doo-doo.

Bear in mind that, as a mutual, it was limited means to raise more money, bar v. expensive debt.

Saying that, I reckon JL would do well doing a direct to the posh saving bond - say 5 years at 3%. Chuck in some vouchers too.

 

 

 

 

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, spygirl said:

The income that the managers and director are drawing from this turkey.

The sensible thing to do would be to put your hand up and say 'We fucked up' and scale back.

However ... that would involve losing job and never working in banking again.

Or just brassneck it out, drawing benefits, until the shit hits the fan and - hopefully - someone buys you out and you get paid off to fuck off elsewhere, probably not banking.

However ... I dont think anyones going to touch MB. What have they got? Loads of expensive real estate leases and a wrongly classified mortgage book.

Fuckthat,

 

 

 

Not sure blowing up a bank -metaphorically speaking-disqualifies you from working in finance.

 

Hornby has gone from strength to strength.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Applegarth

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Hornby

Edited by sancho panza
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sancho panza
27 minutes ago, spygirl said:

To be honest, I always assumed that JL got really really low rents as most Malls relied on a big JL to pull people.

They're generalyl the anchor store of anchor stores.

 

 

Hence they get cheap rents .If they can't afford the service fees then i suspect the Landlords might not be such a good investment.

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John Lewis et al haven't been getting low rents for about 5 years. I don't understand their business model either. Formerly they used to sell high- and mid-range gear at fairly high-end prices, but had the service to go with that, and wealthier sorts were happy to pay it.  But if you look at the reviews of their current service levels it makes you wonder why anyone would shop there. Seems to me they don't know if they're coming or going, are they competing with Argos, or Harrods?

https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.johnlewis.com

1.7 / 10 i.e awful. Why pay more for that?

I haven't been in a shop for years because there's no need to

 

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sancho panza

Has Throntons been mentioned yet?

 

Was near a store of there's today on a busy loacl High St-Market Harborough.Pretty dead tbh.Timspons/Wilko doing well with footfall though.

 

From July 19

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7201813/Meltdown-Thorntons-Chocolate-firm-slides-deeper-red-continues-shut-stores.html

Thorntons fell deeper into the red as it continued to shut stores on the High Street.

Losses at the chocolatier grew to £38.3million in the year to August 31, compared with £31.1million a year earlier. 

The company was hit by £2.3million in one-off costs relating to a string of store closures and restructuring. Sales also fell by 3.3 per cent to just under £140million as it battled with a downturn on the High Street.

 

 

 

I think we've discussed Boots ongoing problems before.

 

Still from 9/9/19

https://www.chemistanddruggist.co.uk/news/four-boots-pharmacy-closures-revealed

Boots has confirmed four branches in Belfast, Brighton, Coventry and Yorkshire will shut before November, following June's announcement it will close around 200 in total.

Boots’ parent company announced in June that it is looking to “reduce [its] store count by 8%” in the UK through an “optimisation programme” that will target around 200 loss-making pharmacies.

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sleepwello'nights
On ‎04‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 06:56, Ash4781b said:

Never heard of them. They can always be rolled onto the Nationwide if it goes wrong!

I’ve not gone through the financialS which are for a lender easy ish to follow https://www.cumberland.co.uk/neon/download/file/pdfs/18-19-Annual-Report-Accounts.pdf

 

Cumberland BS hasn't gone into administration. Looking at their accounts it seems a prudent lender. Well capitalised and a sustainable profit, albeit lower in 2019 than 2018. 

Am I missing something, does the post you replied to mean that Cumberland BS has put Marcus Worthington into administration?

Edited by sleepwello'nights
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sancho panza
1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Cumberland BS hasn't gone into administration. Looking at their accounts it seems a prudent lender. Well capitalised and a sustainable profit, albeit lower in 2019 than 2018. 

Am I missing something, does the post you replied to mean that Cumberland BS has put Marcus Worthington into administration?

CBS appointed the administrator,probably meaning they're one of teh senior secured creditors-most likely the senior creditor but not necessairly.

I'm not a pro in this field but I'm surprised a small rural BS is involved with a local construction co. @Ash4781b may have a deeper understanding but this sort of lending is more commercial,higher risk than BS's are used to dealing with. I'd have thought some CRE might be present in the laon book but not this sort of wholesale acitivity and it msut be wholesale if they're deep enough in the hole to appoint adminsitrators.

What were they thinking? i don't know the size of either the BS or teh MW co., but student rooms is ground zero of teh looming crash.

 

https://www.companyrescue.co.uk/guides-knowledge/news/what-triggers-administration-and-who-can-appoint-an-administrator-1661/

So who can appoint an administrator?

Usually, directors of the distressed company appoint an administrator or insolvency practitioner themselves. Directors can serve a Notice of Intention to Appoint to stop a winding up petition from creditors if there is an immediate threat. 

Some secured creditors, for example a bank or qualified floating charge holder, can also appoint an administrator. All other creditors who are owed money (over £750) can’t appoint an administrator but can issue a winding up petition. This is usually the last resort to retrieve debt. Statutory demands and county court judgements are often the first port of call. 

 

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Chewing Grass
6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm not a pro in this field but I'm surprised a small rural BS is involved with a local construction co.

Be somebody sorting out funding for their local mates in the lodge, nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

Mates rates.

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sleepwello'nights
18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

 

Quite, but I was puzzled why CBS accounts were linked in the post. They don't seem to be in trouble even if Marcus are wound up.

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sancho panza
8 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Quite, but I was puzzled why CBS accounts were linked in the post. They don't seem to be in trouble even if Marcus are wound up.

for me it's a canary in the coal mine type thing

a) why were they lending in such a risky market

b) why were they lending enough to be the primary lender to a firm building student halls?

c) why did they feel the need to put into admin???

Thye'll absorb this loss,no problems but it begs questions of their risk management and consequently balance sheet...to me.

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14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

for me it's a canary in the coal mine type thing

a) why were they lending in such a risky market

b) why were they lending enough to be the primary lender to a firm building student halls?

c) why did they feel the need to put into admin???

Thye'll absorb this loss,no problems but it begs questions of their risk management and consequently balance sheet...to me.

Because QE ZIRP has forced small ineffecient banks n building socities to move up.

So, rather than push money into the economy, larger more efficients banks take less risk and inflate assets, smaller banks, unable to compete, end up taking nuts risk, which blow up, and csuse more economic disruption.

If a centralpk bank thinks an evonomy needs QE then it needs to get rid of all banjs, then reduce public sector pensions n pay too.

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

for me it's a canary in the coal mine type thing

a) why were they lending in such a risky market

b) why were they lending enough to be the primary lender to a firm building student halls?

c) why did they feel the need to put into admin???

Thye'll absorb this loss,no problems but it begs questions of their risk management and consequently balance sheet...to me.

V. Finite.

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