What's going to collapse next...

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

They’re very expensive. I think it’s £7 for a chicken burrito. £8 for pork or beef. Plus £1.50 for guacamole. The free burrito essentially enhances the yield from 8% to 12% if you get one each week. I still told him it wasn’t worth the return. They didn’t seem to make any money despite being very busy whenever I passed one of their branches. I thought they’d struggle in a downturn. Seems to be happening sooner than I expected.

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/eric-partaker-5560b92

Eric has been named "CEO of the Year" at the 2019 Business Excellence Awards, one of the "Top 30 Entrepreneurs in the UK", 35 and under, by Startups Magazine, and among "Britain's Most Disruptive Entrepreneurs" by The Telegraph. His work has featured on over 7 major TV stations, in the Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. He has also appeared as a guest judge on The Apprentice with Lord Alan Sugar.

Over the last 20 years Eric has advised Fortune 50 CEOs while at McKinsey & Company, helped build Skype’s multi-billion dollar success story, and co-founded Chilango where he’s also Co-CEO. Chilango has been described by Elite Business Magazine as “arguably the most exciting fast food company of the decade”.

Eric is also certified as a High Performance Coach, by the High Performance Institute. He has completed a coaching certification and apprenticeship with Professor BJ Fogg, who leads Stanford University’s Behavior Design Lab. He also continues to research evidence-based studies in psychology, neuroscience, habit change, leadership, and peak performance.

Eric also coaches a limited number of entrepreneurs throughout the world, helping them reach even higher levels of performance, in both their businesses and lives. He draws from his world-class work experiences at McKinsey, Skype, and Chilango, cutting edge research and behavioral science from Stanford University, and the approaches and techniques used in the worlds of elite sport and the military - areas where optimal performance is key.

Learn more at www.EricPartaker.com

[Errol]

Eddie Stobart’s fate rests on rescue deal with private equity firm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/15/eddie-stobart-just-weeks-collapse/

Edited November 17, 2019 by Errol

[sancho panza]

 

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/eric-partaker-5560b92

Eric has been named "CEO of the Year" at the 2019 Business Excellence Awards, one of the "Top 30 Entrepreneurs in the UK", 35 and under, by Startups Magazine, and among "Britain's Most Disruptive Entrepreneurs" by The Telegraph. His work has featured on over 7 major TV stations, in the Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. He has also appeared as a guest judge on The Apprentice with Lord Alan Sugar.

Over the last 20 years Eric has advised Fortune 50 CEOs while at McKinsey & Company, helped build Skype’s multi-billion dollar success story, and co-founded Chilango where he’s also Co-CEO. Chilango has been described by Elite Business Magazine as “arguably the most exciting fast food company of the decade”.

Eric is also certified as a High Performance Coach, by the High Performance Institute. He has completed a coaching certification and apprenticeship with Professor BJ Fogg, who leads Stanford University’s Behavior Design Lab. He also continues to research evidence-based studies in psychology, neuroscience, habit change, leadership, and peak performance.

Eric also coaches a limited number of entrepreneurs throughout the world, helping them reach even higher levels of performance, in both their businesses and lives. He draws from his world-class work experiences at McKinsey, Skype, and Chilango, cutting edge research and behavioral science from Stanford University, and the approaches and techniques used in the worlds of elite sport and the military - areas where optimal performance is key.

Learn more at www.EricPartaker.com

Impressive CV.Makes me think of

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-2047433/The-3m-house-sold-extreme-discount.html

' Jonathan Blain, Extreme Game Changer, Servant For Humanity, Best Selling Author of 13 Books / $3.8m+ sales, Speaker and Entrepreneur helps people / organisations to Live Better Lives, Have Better Careers, Run Better Businesses and Organisations and Make The World a ...''

 

72 views

 

27 minutes ago, Errol said:

Eddie Stobart’s fate rests on rescue deal with private equity firm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/15/eddie-stobart-just-weeks-collapse/

Reassuring if nothing else Errol because well PE has worked out so well for ToysRus.iirc stobart had their own documentary...

[DurhamBorn]

On 10/11/2019 at 20:11, Ash4781b said:

They are selling greeting cards in my local Aldi. Was This discussed upthread ?

Yes Card Factory have done a deal,selling into half the estate i think around 430 stores,likely where they arent next to a present Card Factory.Card factory are an interesting business and one that needs to execute the next few years just right.Firstly they need to finish building out the store network,they need stores in reach of most of the population,probably another 150 stores.Then they need to change the website to a full multi channel click and collect one.The higher margins are in the balloons/xtras for parties etc.Its crucial they get a click and collect offer going as people will likely use it a lot.Every one of my daughters friends buy loads of balloons and banners etc for kids parties,baby showers etc.They also need to leverage into other retailers,but they need to be very careful how they do it.That is to make sure the likes of B+M etc dont expand their card ranges to more than basement level stuff.They also need to start to move their debt levels down.Given they have very little in assets  as its a capital light model they need much lower debts.

The main threat to Card Factory is actually falling foot fall on the high street.They cant control it and i expect they have a high operational leverage in that the last 20% of the hours turnover is 80% profit.Probably why they are taking up more and more on retail parks.Problem there is the rents will be higher,and the units they take much smaller,so a much smaller range.

[Loki]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

Chilango where he’s also Co-CEO. Chilango has been described by Elite Business Magazine as “arguably the most exciting fast food company of the decade”.

Sometimes I read things that makes me think the atheists have a point about people not having souls.

 

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes Card Factory have done a deal,selling into half the estate i think around 430 stores,likely where they arent next to a present Card Factory.Card factory are an interesting business and one that needs to execute the next few years just right.Firstly they need to finish building out the store network,they need stores in reach of most of the population,probably another 150 stores.Then they need to change the website to a full multi channel click and collect one.The higher margins are in the balloons/xtras for parties etc.Its crucial they get a click and collect offer going as people will likely use it a lot.Every one of my daughters friends buy loads of balloons and banners etc for kids parties,baby showers etc.They also need to leverage into other retailers,but they need to be very careful how they do it.That is to make sure the likes of B+M etc dont expand their card ranges to more than basement level stuff.They also need to start to move their debt levels down.Given they have very little in assets  as its a capital light model they need much lower debts.

The main threat to Card Factory is actually falling foot fall on the high street.They cant control it and i expect they have a high operational leverage in that the last 20% of the hours turnover is 80% profit.Probably why they are taking up more and more on retail parks.Problem there is the rents will be higher,and the units they take much smaller,so a much smaller range.

That's the big issue now.Was recently in a suburb of Leicester called Oadby(population 25k) and that High St has been utterly hollowed out over the last decade.All the banks but Barclays are gone,two pubs,big coop,iceland,electical shop,two butchers,coupolem of bakers.whats left is a hotchptoch of charity shops,EA's clinging on before the fall,hairdressers,couple of hardware stores,fast food etc.They have a card factory and must say it's one of the busiest on that High st.Problem  is that it's getting to the stage where if you want a loaf of bread or some chicken,there's nowhere to buy it now which has to have an impact on footfall.

I think those shops are well positoned,well stokced with stuff that sells-M&S eat your heart out-like you say tho,they can't prosper if they're in an empty High St

 

in Oadby,there's a Thronton's,remember them.Been discussed before here but there is never anyone in there.looks doomed.Anotehr shop wiht an aging (aka dying)customer base.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

That's the big issue now.Was recently in a suburb of Leicester called Oadby(population 25k) and that High St has been utterly hollowed out over the last decade.All the banks but Barclays are gone,two pubs,big coop,iceland,electical shop,two butchers,coupolem of bakers.whats left is a hotchptoch of charity shops,EA's clinging on before the fall,hairdressers,couple of hardware stores,fast food etc.They have a card factory and must say it's one of the busiest on that High st.Problem  is that it's getting to the stage where if you want a loaf of bread or some chicken,there's nowhere to buy it now which has to have an impact on footfall.

I think those shops are well positoned,well stokced with stuff that sells-M&S eat your heart out-like you say tho,they can't prosper if they're in an empty High St

 

in Oadby,there's a Thronton's,remember them.Been discussed before here but there is never anyone in there.looks doomed.Anotehr shop wiht an aging (aka dying)customer base.

Yes its the footfall thats the problem.They have a flexible lease profile though and iv noticed they often open a 2nd store in a retail park then shut the high street one near by.I expect next government will move on town centres for rates etc.Key going forward is that a lot of the retail space turns to leisure/housing etc.I like companies though going forward who can front run inflation and i think they can.A £1.69 card instead of a £1.59 wont put anyone off.They are doing a great job of holding like for like sales,but that will be bigger basket with falling customer numbers.They need to trim that debt though,its too high even though they do produce a lot of free cash.In a brutal environment though i think the management have done a very good job.So far anyway.

[sancho panza]

EA entries

if you shorten the timeframe Foxtons is bouncing

 

like a dead cat

 

dip buyers lost their balls?

[sancho panza]

impressive financials from CWD

 

balance sheet looks great creaking under the wight of all that goodwill n intangibles

[sancho panza]

Yes

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/11/is-stationery-retail-dying/

Is stationery retail being erased from the high street?

Not so long ago, school children and parents made it a priority to head to WHSmith ahead of a new term commencing to purchase stationery goods. But when discounters such as B&M and Poundland widened their offering, the appeal of stationers such as WHSmith and Paperchase perished.

This year alone, both Paperchase and Clintons launched a CVA, with the latter looking to potentially shut down one-fifth of its 332-strong store estate. Meanwhile, WHSmith’s high street stores in the UK continued to under-perform – consumer lobby group Which? even rated it the worst retailer in the country.

Smiggle’s Aussie parent company has threatened to end its UK expansion plans if economic conditions continued to decline, and The Works’ stock market value recently plunged by 43 per cent amid a profit warning due to a “difficult consumer backdrop”. Finally, Card Factory’s recent third quarter update may have painted a rosy picture, but its half-year profits took a 14 per cent hit.

[spunko]

Interesting wording. A foreign company called Smiggle has "threatened" to not expand into another country if we don't suit their globalist goals? Oh noes. How awful. Fuck off back to Australia then.

WHSmith are shite though, and I don't understand why anyone uses them, and their prices are extortionate. I can only assume they're surviving off of selling £2 bottles of water at train stations.

 

 

 

[Loki]

They are big at airports too

[SillyBilly]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Interesting wording. A foreign company called Smiggle has "threatened" to not expand into another country if we don't suit their globalist goals? Oh noes. How awful. Fuck off back to Australia then.

WHSmith are shite though, and I don't understand why anyone uses them, and their prices are extortionate. I can only assume they're surviving off of selling £2 bottles of water at train stations.

 

 

 

WHSmith trade off captive markets. I use them a handful of times a year where pre-planning has gone out the window and I need some kind of sustenance and quick. Like driving into a services at 2am in the morning following a flight back from abroad and because you need a can of Red Bull to avoid crashing they are your only option. That is their market. And each time you walk out you feel like you have been mugged.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Interesting wording. A foreign company called Smiggle has "threatened" to not expand into another country if we don't suit their globalist goals? Oh noes. How awful. Fuck off back to Australia then.

WHSmith are shite though, and I don't understand why anyone uses them, and their prices are extortionate. I can only assume they're surviving off of selling £2 bottles of water at train stations.

 

 

 

I think their airport/train station sales of meal deal sandwiches are bailing them out.

When I have time,I often watch the till sales in places like WH Smith.Even if it's only for ten minutes.Amazing how poor their High St operation is doing in places like Leicester on a saturday mroning.Few old dears rummaging around for their Daily Mail money and your ten minutes is up.

Bit of footfall research would have told you that these stores were in trouble a long time back.Airport business is busy busy.

Footfall research in M&S is quite instructivbe too.

[white110]

WH Smiths is not just the shops, the magazine and newspaper distribution is the cash generator (or was), outlets pay weekly, publisher paid on a 30 day or quarterly basis. Year 1998 cash flow was 30 million a week from papers and mags distribution and placed on the money market till needed. I doubt the modus  has changed much except a reduction in actual paper and magazine numbers sales reducing the cash intake and ability to subsidise the rest of the business group.

[DoINeedOne]

 WHSmiths from the little i have read about it is focusing more on airport stores and has bought a couple of retailers who have a large presence in USA airports 

[dgul]

19 hours ago, white110 said:

WH Smiths is not just the shops, the magazine and newspaper distribution is the cash generator (or was), outlets pay weekly, publisher paid on a 30 day or quarterly basis. Year 1998 cash flow was 30 million a week from papers and mags distribution and placed on the money market till needed. I doubt the modus  has changed much except a reduction in actual paper and magazine numbers sales reducing the cash intake and ability to subsidise the rest of the business group.

In that case it would make sense to split the company and let the market find the efficient bits.

[spygirl]

https://www.ft.com/content/b7cf0e04-0d1d-11ea-bb52-34c8d9dc6d84

Nationwide, the UK’s second-largest mortgage lender, said it would cut back on new lending to mainstream borrowers as intense competition contributed to a sharp drop in its first-half profits.

 

Nationwide chief executive Joe Garner added that instead of targeting well-served prime mortgage borrowers, Nationwide would prioritise underserved customers such as older borrowers and offer better rates to its savers who have suffered in the low interest-rate environment.

[dgul]

54 minutes ago, spygirl said:

https://www.ft.com/content/b7cf0e04-0d1d-11ea-bb52-34c8d9dc6d84

Nationwide, the UK’s second-largest mortgage lender, said it would cut back on new lending to mainstream borrowers as intense competition contributed to a sharp drop in its first-half profits.

 

Nationwide chief executive Joe Garner added that instead of targeting well-served prime mortgage borrowers, Nationwide would prioritise underserved customers such as older borrowers and offer better rates to its savers who have suffered in the low interest-rate environment.

Maybe they miscalculated the risk they hold in their property loans...

[spygirl]

7 minutes ago, dgul said:

Maybe they miscalculated the risk they hold in their property loans...

Theres no maybe.

They are stuff full of shit borrowers.

HSBC are looking to increase their mortgage share in the UK. Sadly HSBC are picky, so they'll offer very good mortgages for the lower risk customer - Ive ~ years left on a  5 year fix from HSBC @ 1.7%-ish.

NW are stuff for funding.

And cannot pick n choose it borrowers.

The comment on 'lending to older people' is because there are very very few  young people in NW traditonal stompung of London/Se taking out mortgages, they were faced with even more risk (theyve already dropped a bollocvk with HTB mortgages) or just stick to people they lent to i nthe 80s - the over 60s.

Fucked.

 

[Erewhon888]

On 05/11/2019 at 09:39, Craig said:

Lots of scurrilous rumours on the internet about Deutsche Bank's impending collapse.

Admittedly not based on much whatsoever, but still...

You may find this analysis interesting: https://youtu.be/gVejnTjkj_Q

 

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, Erewhon888 said:

You may find this analysis interesting: https://youtu.be/gVejnTjkj_Q

 

Quite the first post!

[Ash4781b]

Back in my local Homebase - a deserted store ,  bathroom and kitchen sections closed for refurbishment (wonder if that bit Makes money), a bed concession area with a note saying now closed to business. Homebase periodically fails but I can’t think whether the owners must visit stores? They must see the presumably abysmal sales numbers?

[dgul]

18 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Back in my local Homebase - a deserted store ,  bathroom and kitchen sections closed for refurbishment (wonder if that bit Makes money), a bed concession area with a note saying now closed to business. Homebase periodically fails but I can’t think whether the owners must visit stores? They must see the presumably abysmal sales numbers?

Homebase is weird.  All they have to do is copy B&Q and they'd be okay -- but they insist on a mishmash of ideas (is it B&Q or Habitat?) and prices that are too high (or, Habitat prices for B&Q products).

 

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, dgul said:

Homebase is weird.  All they have to do is copy B&Q and they'd be okay -- but they insist on a mishmash of ideas (is it B&Q or Habitat?) and prices that are too high (or, Habitat prices for B&Q products).

 

Not sure that copying B & Q is a good plan - they are fucked too!