What's going to collapse next...

[sancho panza]

some old news thats becoming new news.

 

The last bit I've put in bold is particualrly worrisome.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/18/brick-and-mortar-melts-down-in-the-uk-worst-decline-since-2009-as-big-retailers-collapse/

Brick-and-Mortar Melts Down in the UK, Worst Decline Since 2009, as Big Retailers Collapsed, 14,500 Stores Closed

by Wolf Richter • Jan 18, 2020 • 119 Comments

But even red-hot online sales cooled off late in the year as consumers turned sour.

By Wolf Richter and Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.

Consumers in the UK, generally a hardy bunch when it comes to borrowing and shopping, were not in a shopping mood before the holidays. Retail sales in December at non-food brick-and-mortar stores – ranging from specialty stores to department stores – fell 1.6% compared to December last year, seasonally adjusted, according to the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). The less volatile three-month moving average fell 1.1% year-over-year, the biggest decline since September 2009, when consumers were trying to clamber out of the Financial Crisis:

The decline in December caused the non-food brick-and-mortar index to drop to its lowest level since June 2018. And it’s down 3.2% since its peak in July 2019, an indication of just how fast retail sales have deteriorated in the second half of the year:

Even sales at food stores fell 1.7% year-over-year in December. But gasoline sales rose 4.7%, on higher fuel prices.

Even red-hot online sales cooled off in the second half.

Online sales – including sales by the online divisions of brick-and-mortar retailers – had skyrocketed 18.4% in the seven months from December 2018 through July 2019, to a huge all-time record, but have since fallen off, in another sign of retail weakness in the second half, reducing the 12-month growth from December 2018 through December 2019 to “just” 13.3%:

Online sales in the UK now account for 19% of total retail sales. The biggest gains were in the household goods sector whose online sales surged 23% year-over-year in December. This rapid shift to online retail poses a major threat to the viability of many brick-and-mortar stores that have failed in building a vibrant and large online business.

All combined, including online sales, fuel sales, and grocery sales, total retail sales have fallen 1.6% from the peak in July 2019 – due to the weakness in the second half – but eked out a year-over-year gain of 1.5%.

Why this sudden slow-down in retail sales in the second half?

The British Retail Consortium — which focuses on brick-and-mortar stores and doesn’t cover big online retailers, such as Amazon — hammered the uncertainty surrounding Brexit:

“2019 was the worst year on record and the first year to show an overall decline in [brick-and-mortar] retail sales. This was also reflected in the CVAs, shop closures and job losses that the industry suffered in 2019. Twice the UK faced the prospect of a no deal Brexit, as well as political instability that concluded in a December General Election – further weakening demand for the festive period.”

“We’ve had the perfect storm in recent years,” says Martin Newman, a former multichannel operator for Ted Baker, Harrods and Burberry. “The political uncertainty has fueled a fall in consumer confidence and a subsequent tightening of belts.”

And lots of bankrupt companies. The highest profile collapses in 2019 included Thomas Cook, the world’s oldest travel agent that collapsed in late September, leaving 600,000 travelers stranded abroad. It was placed into compulsory liquidation, resulting in an estimated 6,500 job losses in the UK alone.

The brick-and-mortar meltdown.

Some of the biggest retailers that collapsed include:

• Debenhams, the department store that has graced British high streets for over 200 years and which was put through a “pre-packaged” administration in April. Around 4,000 members of staff were laid off. The store continues to trade after its creditors took control of the business, but is struggling to reinvent itself and just revealed plans for 19 more store closures this month.
• Bonmarche, the woman’s fashion chain that called in administrators in October, resulting in 2,900 lost jobs. It also continues to trade in administration, but its future, like Debenhams’ (and so many other chains), remains uncertain.
• Mothercare, Clintons, Links of London, and many other retailers fell into administration in 2019.

A total of 117,000 retail jobs were lost and 14,500 stores were closed in 2019 as a result of brick-and-mortar retail companies hitting the wall or simply cutting costs in a desperate bid to stay afloat, according to a report published by the Centre for Retail Research. The report identifies four main causes of the malaise:

• The high costs of running retail outlets, including rents and high labor costs.
• Low profitability resulting from anemic sales growth, high costs, squeezed margins and ruthless price competition.
• The rapid growth of online competition, with most growth achieved at the expense of brick-and-mortar retailers.
• Lack of preparation: low investment in stores and inadequate forward planning to anticipate the challenges of the future.

British consumers and their cherished credit cards.

Credit card balances have multiplied by a factor of four in seven years, from the post-Financial Crisis low of £55 billion in 2012 to £225 billion in November 2019. UK households, among the most solvent a generation ago, are now among the most indebted. Retailers and economists cherish that.

But the appetite for fresh debt appears to be fading, partly due to weaker confidence and the weakening retail environment late last year, but also because many consumers have already reached the outer limits of their borrowing capacity. In November, credit card balances fell on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2013, according to the Bank of England. But due to the online spending-and-borrowing spree in early 2019, credit card balances in November were still up 5.6% year-over-year.'

[Noallegiance]

Just now, sancho panza said:

•  

British consumers and their cherished credit cards.

Credit card balances have multiplied by a factor of four in seven years, from the post-Financial Crisis low of £55 billion in 2012 to £225 billion in November 2019. UK households, among the most solvent a generation ago, are now among the most indebted. Retailers and economists cherish that.

But the appetite for fresh debt appears to be fading, partly due to weaker confidence and the weakening retail environment late last year, but also because many consumers have already reached the outer limits of their borrowing capacity. In November, credit card balances fell on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2013, according to the Bank of England. But due to the online spending-and-borrowing spree in early 2019, credit card balances in November were still up 5.6% year-over-year.'

In 2014 'debt awareness week' with Stepchange Debt Charity saw them take on £250m of new debt from individuals struggling to make payments. In one week.

6 years ago.

I dread to think of the numbers now.

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

some old news thats becoming new news.

 

The last bit I've put in bold is particualrly worrisome.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/18/brick-and-mortar-melts-down-in-the-uk-worst-decline-since-2009-as-big-retailers-collapse/

Brick-and-Mortar Melts Down in the UK, Worst Decline Since 2009, as Big Retailers Collapsed, 14,500 Stores Closed

by Wolf Richter • Jan 18, 2020 • 119 Comments

But even red-hot online sales cooled off late in the year as consumers turned sour.

By Wolf Richter and Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.

Consumers in the UK, generally a hardy bunch when it comes to borrowing and shopping, were not in a shopping mood before the holidays. Retail sales in December at non-food brick-and-mortar stores – ranging from specialty stores to department stores – fell 1.6% compared to December last year, seasonally adjusted, according to the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). The less volatile three-month moving average fell 1.1% year-over-year, the biggest decline since September 2009, when consumers were trying to clamber out of the Financial Crisis:

The decline in December caused the non-food brick-and-mortar index to drop to its lowest level since June 2018. And it’s down 3.2% since its peak in July 2019, an indication of just how fast retail sales have deteriorated in the second half of the year:

Even sales at food stores fell 1.7% year-over-year in December. But gasoline sales rose 4.7%, on higher fuel prices.

Even red-hot online sales cooled off in the second half.

Online sales – including sales by the online divisions of brick-and-mortar retailers – had skyrocketed 18.4% in the seven months from December 2018 through July 2019, to a huge all-time record, but have since fallen off, in another sign of retail weakness in the second half, reducing the 12-month growth from December 2018 through December 2019 to “just” 13.3%:

Online sales in the UK now account for 19% of total retail sales. The biggest gains were in the household goods sector whose online sales surged 23% year-over-year in December. This rapid shift to online retail poses a major threat to the viability of many brick-and-mortar stores that have failed in building a vibrant and large online business.

All combined, including online sales, fuel sales, and grocery sales, total retail sales have fallen 1.6% from the peak in July 2019 – due to the weakness in the second half – but eked out a year-over-year gain of 1.5%.

Why this sudden slow-down in retail sales in the second half?

The British Retail Consortium — which focuses on brick-and-mortar stores and doesn’t cover big online retailers, such as Amazon — hammered the uncertainty surrounding Brexit:

“2019 was the worst year on record and the first year to show an overall decline in [brick-and-mortar] retail sales. This was also reflected in the CVAs, shop closures and job losses that the industry suffered in 2019. Twice the UK faced the prospect of a no deal Brexit, as well as political instability that concluded in a December General Election – further weakening demand for the festive period.”

“We’ve had the perfect storm in recent years,” says Martin Newman, a former multichannel operator for Ted Baker, Harrods and Burberry. “The political uncertainty has fueled a fall in consumer confidence and a subsequent tightening of belts.”

And lots of bankrupt companies. The highest profile collapses in 2019 included Thomas Cook, the world’s oldest travel agent that collapsed in late September, leaving 600,000 travelers stranded abroad. It was placed into compulsory liquidation, resulting in an estimated 6,500 job losses in the UK alone.

The brick-and-mortar meltdown.

Some of the biggest retailers that collapsed include:

• Debenhams, the department store that has graced British high streets for over 200 years and which was put through a “pre-packaged” administration in April. Around 4,000 members of staff were laid off. The store continues to trade after its creditors took control of the business, but is struggling to reinvent itself and just revealed plans for 19 more store closures this month.
• Bonmarche, the woman’s fashion chain that called in administrators in October, resulting in 2,900 lost jobs. It also continues to trade in administration, but its future, like Debenhams’ (and so many other chains), remains uncertain.
• Mothercare, Clintons, Links of London, and many other retailers fell into administration in 2019.

A total of 117,000 retail jobs were lost and 14,500 stores were closed in 2019 as a result of brick-and-mortar retail companies hitting the wall or simply cutting costs in a desperate bid to stay afloat, according to a report published by the Centre for Retail Research. The report identifies four main causes of the malaise:

• The high costs of running retail outlets, including rents and high labor costs.
• Low profitability resulting from anemic sales growth, high costs, squeezed margins and ruthless price competition.
• The rapid growth of online competition, with most growth achieved at the expense of brick-and-mortar retailers.
• Lack of preparation: low investment in stores and inadequate forward planning to anticipate the challenges of the future.

British consumers and their cherished credit cards.

Credit card balances have multiplied by a factor of four in seven years, from the post-Financial Crisis low of £55 billion in 2012 to £225 billion in November 2019. UK households, among the most solvent a generation ago, are now among the most indebted. Retailers and economists cherish that.

But the appetite for fresh debt appears to be fading, partly due to weaker confidence and the weakening retail environment late last year, but also because many consumers have already reached the outer limits of their borrowing capacity. In November, credit card balances fell on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2013, according to the Bank of England. But due to the online spending-and-borrowing spree in early 2019, credit card balances in November were still up 5.6% year-over-year.'

Prime mortgage APR - ~2%

Credit card APR - ~25%

 

[spygirl]

On 17/03/2019 at 13:27, spygirl said:

Ill go out on a limb and say Sirius Minerals.

They'll stretch out the CEOs  salary for another 2 months then hell fuck off to Oz, leaving a big hlle i nhe ground and loads of small private investors wondering what happened to all their money.

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e8a3f904-3b58-11ea-a01a-bae547046735

Under the deal announced on Monday, Anglo will pay 5.5p in cash for Sirius, which will value the company — once worth more than £1.5bn — at just over £400m.

 

[spygirl]

My post was March 19,. Share price was 20p.

Took out at 5.5p, hitting ~3p.

I think the mine is borderline viable -with the correct company/funding.

 

I shall have a load of 'I told you so' t-shirts printed.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

Intu raising money.

How does that saying about throwing good money after bad go?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51173668

[dgul]

On 12/01/2020 at 14:14, Errol said:

Department store Beales warns of collapse risk

One of Britain's oldest department stores has warned that it could collapse into administration.

Beales, which began trading in Bournemouth in 1881, said 22 stores and 1,000 jobs were at stake if it cannot find a buyer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51083396

Gone.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

My post was March 19,. Share price was 20p.

Took out at 5.5p, hitting ~3p.

I think the mine is borderline viable -with the correct company/funding.

 

I shall have a load of 'I told you so' t-shirts printed.

 

 

 

I wonder ...

as Siuris were v unsual in having most of its share held by idiot PIs ...

Whether the takeover vote will fail.

The LSE forum posters are saying 'No!'

Yash

Thanks for that ,

I understand your thoughts on getting a better deal but I would also like to know If the BOD can't give a better idea if we vote against this what realistically % wise are the chances of this" Funding" offer saving us ?

TBH for me it's not about another penny but more about the original plan I signed up for ???

Regards

ffc

PS
I signed up as a full member on Saturday

 

Itll be hilarious is they vote down the takeover, only for the company to go into administration and AA taking it over for a lot less from the administrator.

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

I wonder ...

as Siuris were v unsual in having most of its share held by idiot PIs ...

Whether the takeover vote will fail.

The LSE forum posters are saying 'No!'

Yash

Thanks for that ,

I understand your thoughts on getting a better deal but I would also like to know If the BOD can't give a better idea if we vote against this what realistically % wise are the chances of this" Funding" offer saving us ?

TBH for me it's not about another penny but more about the original plan I signed up for ???

Regards

ffc

PS
I signed up as a full member on Saturday

 

Itll be hilarious is they vote down the takeover, only for the company to go into administration and AA taking it over for a lot less from the administrator.

SHARESOC !!!!20 Jan 2020 16:28

Ok whats the deal with Sharesoc - briefly ? I haven't been following things.

I have a 7 figure share sum here and I'd rather lose the lot than give the mine away for £400 million. How much has gone into the build so far 1 Billion, I'm guessing at least.

It seems, and I guess other people have stated the obvious, that we simply have to raise sufficient monies to drill the shaft. We already own the mine, again I wouldn't know what percentage of the company is in private hands, but surely between us the Arabs and Norwegians we must own a significant percentage. Also there must be thousands of small investors getting peanuts from the robbing banks that would leap at the opportunity to make 8-10 % on their savings. Couldn't a public offering be made somehow. Once the shaft is done then other financing should be easily obtained. Probably the banks have this kind of thing under control, you wouldn't want Joe Soap making 8% pulling money from their grubby greedy hands.

The stock market exists to screw Joe.

I'm appalled at the lack of adventurism shown by government and I mean both parties. If they do not support industry in Britain then we have no hope whatsoever. I guessing Anglo will grab the lot and end up paying minimal tax to the people of Britain. It's ours vote for us.

I can put in about £10,000 where do I sign up.

Why is the shaft such an expense ? Have we paid for the shaft borer ? If so we pay the operating crew a couple of million each and a £100 million for lining the thing done.

I am fully aware that things are never that easy but talk of spending 400 million to dig a shaft that in the old days would have been carried out by a team of navies with pick and shovel seems excessive.

[Hardhat]

It hurts to read.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Are Ted Baker toast? 

Have they run up of dough? 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/22/ted-baker-balance-sheet-error-worse-than-feared-as-woes-deepen

[sancho panza]

Shurely wont be long now...

[sancho panza]

Wolf St doubles down.....I presonally wouldn't be trusting their asset valuations myself.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/21/what-to-do-with-malls-teetering-uk-mall-giant-intu-asks-investors-for-1-billion-shares-drop-to-near-nothing/

After a weekend of fevered speculation, struggling UK mall owner Intu Properties confirmed on Monday that it plans to raise £1 billion of fresh capital to buttress its shaky finances. The company’s shares reacted in time-honored fashion, plunging 8% to a historic low of 21 pence before ending the day down just 1%. Intu’s share price is now 80% lower than it was a year ago and 95% lower than five years ago, leaving the group valued at just £306 million.

Intu owns dozens of malls in the UK, including nine of the 20 biggest ones, and a handful in Spain. It describes itself as a commercial real estate company that is “in the business of helping customers and brands flourish, whether that’s through leasing space in our prime retail and leisure destinations, commercialisation activations or online through our multichannel platform intu.co.uk.” The problem is that many of its clients — mainly large bricks-and-mortar retail chains — are not exactly flourishing; they’re either battling for survival or going out of business.

Intu is also bleeding funds. Its net rental income in the first half of 2019 slumped by around 18% year-on-year to £205 million as a result of major clients like Topshop’s owner Arcadia, Debenhams, and House of Fraser falling into administration (a form of bankruptcy), resulting in a spike in store vacancies. Its losses surged to £856 million in the first half of 2019, up from £506 million in the same period of 2018. The combined value of its assets also fell, from around £9 billion to just over £8 billion.

The company has £4.7 billion of debt on its books that it cannot service under current conditions, which is why it is asking shareholders to stump up an extra £1 billion of capital. But just how willing will investors be to inject funds worth more than three times the market value of a company whose shares have already collapsed 80% in the last year, at a time when the UK’s retail sector is in the deepest of doldrums?

The UK retail sector had a terrible time in 2019, in particular the second half. The three-month moving sales average between October and December fell 1.1% year-over-year, the biggest decline since September 2009. Many consumers, their psyches’ pummeled by the never-ending uncertainty over Brexit and their finances stretched to the outer limits of their borrowing capacity, have begun to tighten their belts, which is the last thing the UK’s brick-and-mortar retail sector needs.

For Intu, the fallout of the UK’s bricks-and-mortar retail crisis has translated into lower occupancy, lower rents, lower revenues and ever-bigger losses. In the first nine months of 2019 it received £19 million in new rents, 40% less than during the same period of 2018. Its occupancy rate of 95% was also down on the 97% registered in September 2018. The company anticipates further declines in 2020 as the high-street crisis continues to bite.

 

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The company anticipates further declines in 2020 as the high-street crisis continues to bite.

INTU is not the high-street, it was in part the reason why the high-street died as its huge malls sucked the cash and the life out of satellite towns.

Now Amazon and their ilk will destroy large malls as they crush the large physical retailers.

[Chewing Grass]

European Car Manufacturing in the next 18 months due to 95g/km CO2 and 95 Euro per gramme 'fine' per car over the magic 95 number.

Example Peugeot 3008 base model (1.2 turbo petrol) £25K 114 g/km result in a £1600 fine per vehicle bumping cost to £27K or £270/month lease.

Similar but higher specced Chinese made SUV (MG ZS 1.5 petrol) £12K 140g/km resulting in £4150 fine per vehicle bumping cost to £16K or £170/month.

EU cannot ban imports but using CO2 as a tarrif will just accelerate vehicle manufacture abroad.

Make the Peugeot in India/China and that's a huge increase in profit.

95g/km will be the biggest own goal in the history of the EU.

Plus the formula they use is perverted as it uses vehicle weight so small city cars are punished harder due to being small and therefore  light-weight with some attracting £5000 fines.

CO2 Target = 95 + [0.033 x (Model Mass – 1379.88kg)]

For reference 95g/km is 78 mpg diesel and 69 mpg petrol.

Cars can be made to do this but production of them in Europe for the masses is unaffordable.

https://www.autocarpro.in/feature/co2-output-to-be-top-priority-for-carmakers-in-2020-45278

[spygirl]

'Beales failure would be disaster for my business'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51233448

Oh no!!!!

A UK artisan manufacturing business is being took down by Beales failing.

Get UKGOV waller out!!!!

If department store chain Beales goes under it will be "a disaster" for DK Bags.

The small business imports handbags from China and sells them on to customers in the UK.

One of their clients is Beales, which went into administration on Monday.

And that's a worry for Ian Siddall - one of the owners of DK Bags - because the department store chain still owes his small, Kent-based business £25,000.

Yeah, fuck you cunt.

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/08841246/filing-history

https://suite.endole.co.uk/insight/company/08841246-dk-bags-ltd

Its barely a market stall FFS.

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

On 09/12/2019 at 20:33, spygirl said:

Amigo loans lurching from fuck up to fuck up.

https://www.ft.com/content/60794508-1a5f-11ea-9186-7348c2f183af

Amigo’s shares have lost about three-quarters of their value since the company went public in June 2018, but rose 13 per cent on Monday to 68.2p. The company’s market capitalisation has fallen from £1.3bn at its IPO to £325m.

Mates say there shit hq has scaffold up it, 4 years after it was built.

Amigo shares tumble as subprime lender puts itself up for sale

Group launches strategic review after removal of chief executive and chairman

https://www.ft.com/content/ccff4a74-40d4-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d

 

Junk. Equity holdees need all he money refunded from the teamsters who floated this junk.

 

[spygirl]

On 11/12/2019 at 09:45, spygirl said:

Bournemouth.

 

Amigo loans swirling round the plug.

Payday lender gone kaput

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18091821.piggybank-owner-djs-uk-limited-goes-administration/

 

JP Morgan manager jailed to robbing .

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18093379.former-jpmorgan-boss-jailed-stealing-100k-bank/

 

LV boss suddenly leaving

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18093633.lv-chief-richard-rowney-quitting/

Still stand by Bourmouth.

Beales gone.

Amigo imploding.

Once JP mortgan start laying off then - poof!

 

 

[spygirl]

38 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Amigo shares tumble as subprime lender puts itself up for sale

Group launches strategic review after removal of chief executive and chairman

https://www.ft.com/content/ccff4a74-40d4-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d

 

Junk. Equity holdees need all he money refunded from the teamsters who floated this junk.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Amigo shares tumble as subprime lender puts itself up for sale

 

 

There's a clue in there for what the problem is. 

[spygirl]

10 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Amigo shares tumble as subprime lender puts itself up for sale

 

 

There's a clue in there for what the problem is. 

Lending money to people with no money is a hiding to nowhere if the company is following all the rules n laws.

There is no such thing as subprime lending - you cannot make money from it.

Amigo are going be sued to zilch.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, spygirl said:

Lending money to people with no money is a hiding to nowhere if the company is following all the rules n laws.

There is no such thing as subprime lending - you cannot make money from it.

Amigo are going be sued to zilch.

 

You'd think after 2008 the bankers would have been regulated out of existence, this is what we got instead. 

 

Says a lot about who's running the country. 

[spygirl]

The rules n regulation for consumer lending are so tight that the UK will see a minimum mortgage of ~60k, otherwise most banks would struggle with generating enough profit to pay for the regulation compliance.

Households with an income sub 40k are going to struggle to get a mortgage.

Insane, as thats probably ~50% of UK housesholds.

 

 

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You'd think after 2008 the bankers would have been regulated out of existence, this is what we got instead. 

 

Says a lot about who's running the country. 

To be frank, they are.

All consumer lending is, rightly, heavily, regulated. No liear loans, no 6x+++ LTE, no IO mortgage scams, no insane small print TnCs.

If only that cunt Prudence had put this in place in late 90s ....

The only booming bits of mortgage banking are the 'commercial' bits like holiday lets and BTL.

Thats where all the sharks and scams are. Tough tits.

[sancho panza]

an old one but a goodie.They've had a consolidation but still down 98% off peak