What's going to collapse next...

[Castlevania]

11 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Been past a compound today (Holmeswood Coaches) stuffed full of stored coaches which reminded me of Shearings (Europes Largest Coach Tour Operator) going bust in May with a fleet of 240 Coaches most of them nearly new (or new) and now probably almost worthless.

Got me thinking that:-

1) the market will probably never recover,

2) those that survive will be paying finance on coaches that are not worth what they are financed for,

3) used coaches will be worth very little

4) the market for new coaches will be dead unless the government legislates existing diesel coaches and buses off the road.

5) unemployed coach drivers are toast

Some of the mom and pop coach operators in rural areas are a bit more diversified in that they have school run contracts. They might be ok.

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Been past a compound today (Holmeswood Coaches) stuffed full of stored coaches which reminded me of Shearings (Europes Largest Coach Tour Operator) going bust in May with a fleet of 240 Coaches most of them nearly new (or new) and now probably almost worthless.

Got me thinking that:-

1) the market will probably never recover,

2) those that survive will be paying finance on coaches that are not worth what they are financed for,

3) used coaches will be worth very little

4) the market for new coaches will be dead unless the government legislates existing diesel coaches and buses off the road.

5) unemployed coach drivers are toast

Frigtehning to think how low that second hand market could go if demand drops off a cliff and a decent number of bus operators go through adminsitration at a similar time.

[Errol]

People will be buying coaches to live on.

[Wight Flight]

10 minutes ago, Errol said:

People will be buying coaches to live on.

I've always fancied converting a double decker into an office.

Now might be the perfect opportunity.

[Errol]

Triumph Motorcycles to cut 400 jobs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-52882805

[sancho panza]

Have we had Pnedragon/Sytners yet?

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/31/automakers-finance-divisions-lobby-boe-uk-gov-for-bailout-as-auto-sales-collapse-97-masses-of-consumers-apply-for-payment-holiday/

For the UK’s auto finance sector, new business volumes in the market fell by 27% in March 2020, compared with the same month in 2019, and by 13% in Q1 2020 as a whole, according to FLA. The finance data for April and May haven’t been released yet, but given that auto sales collapsed by 97% in April and by a similar number in May, due to the lockdown, it’s unlikely to be pretty.

On Monday, June 1, dealerships will be allowed to reopen. But given the parlous state of the UK economy, with unemployment expected to surge from 3.9% in March well into double figures in the coming months, the demand for new debt-financed vehicles is likely to be weak. Many drivers — including the 480,000 on payments holiday — are already struggling to service their current auto finance arrangements.

UK motorists are even more dependent on debt for their car purchases than their American counterparts: 96% percent of all new-vehicle purchases in the UK were debt-financed (dominated by the UK’s version of leasing) in the twelve months to March 2020, according to FLA. In the US, the figure is 84.6%. The rate has risen in the UK by seven percentage points since March 2017.

The UK’s version of auto leasing — “personal contract plans,” or “PCP” — now account for 90% of all car finance deals. PCPs allow drivers to drive the car reasonable cheaply for the term of the agreement, which can be up to four years. They pay no deposit and make monthly payments that essentially cover the difference between the cost of “their” car and its predicted value at the end of the agreement (residual value), plus interest and fees. At the end of the term, the driver has a choice: return the vehicle; make a “balloon payment” for the residual value of the car and take full possession of it; or trade the car in and choose a new vehicle. Most opt for option three.

As long as the system works, everyone appears to be happy. But what happens when the whole feedback loop stops moving, when demand slumps or collapses, when residual values are under heavy pressure, and when unemployed consumers have trouble making payments on their existing leases? This is why lobby groups such as UK Finance and FLA are badgering the British government and the Bank of England not only to expand their support of banks, but also to extend that support to non-bank lenders, including the over-stretched finance arms of the automakers

[leonardratso]

does pnedragon still exist? i  remember buying a car years ago from syntners, i thought theyd gone away years ago as well, mind you im really living in cloud cuckooland, john craven was on countryfile the other day and i thought he was dead, missus told me he wasnt, i think i confused him with johnny ball.

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This is why lobby groups such as UK Finance and FLA are badgering the British government and the Bank of England not only to expand their support of banks, but also to extend that support to non-bank lenders, including the over-stretched finance arms of the automakers

What do we reckon viewers? Denied as consumer not infrastructure, or 'brrrrrrr' just to get liquidity in.

I'm going with brrrrrrr

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

People will be buying coaches to live on.

Beat me to it.  See YouTube.  Full of it.

[Chewing Grass]

40 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The UK’s version of auto leasing — “personal contract plans,” or “PCP” — now account for 90% of all car finance deals. PCPs allow drivers to drive the car reasonable cheaply for the term of the agreement, which can be up to four years. They pay no deposit and make monthly payments that essentially cover the difference between the cost of “their” car and its predicted value at the end of the agreement (residual value), plus interest and fees. At the end of the term, the driver has a choice: return the vehicle; make a “balloon payment” for the residual value of the car and take full possession of it; or trade the car in and choose a new vehicle. Most opt for option three.

This has been the car-crash waiting to happen for the last 12-15 years and the biggest loser in the game will undoubtedly by Mercedes followed by JLR.

Merecedes sell cars aggressive finance to the young and financially illiterate like my niece who is a trainee veterinary nurse, thick as shit and cocky with it.

JLR even refused to sell an engineer at work a car for a direct payment (pension lump) and insisted that it be financed - he walked away.

PCPs allow the gullible to drive a car they can't honestly afford for the term of the lock-in agreement so their peers think they are successful.

PCPs are also state sponsored VAT fraud.

[Popuplights]

15 hours ago, leonardratso said:

john craven was on countryfile the other day and i thought he was dead, missus told me he wasnt, i think i confused him with johnny ball.

Johnny Ball isn't dead either....

[leonardratso]

Just now, Popuplights said:

Johnny Ball isn't dead either....

maybe im dead.

[Option5]

15 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

PCPs allow the gullible to drive a car they can't honestly afford for the term of the lock-in agreement so their peers think they are successful.

I know people who've paid the initial payment by credit card, and one in particular assumed it was a deposit he'd get back at the end of the term.🙄

[spygirl]

These numbers are nuts.

UK household borrowing falls by a record £7.4bn in a month

Stronger household balance sheets mean consumers are in a good position to spend again as lockdown lifts

https://www.ft.com/content/f7733e07-aa3e-49ad-a077-5b908e61bccd

UK net consumer credit fell by a record £7.4bn in April while monthly mortgage approvals hit a new low as the pandemic lockdown curtailed spending, according to data from the Bank of England. The 15,800 mortgage approvals for house purchases in April was about 80 per cent down from February and the lowest level since the BoE began this data series in 1993. 

“Stronger household balance sheets should mean that consumers are in a good position to start spending again once the lockdowns are lifted,” said Thomas Pugh, UK economist at Capital Economics. However, he added that the pent-up demand was not likely to be released for a while because households remain cautious, limiting the pace of recovery in the short term.

Welll ... thats one way too look at it.

In ye olde time, before 2008, they reckoned thhat the UK mortgage market needed about 80k mortgages/month to stop prices falling.

The UK has rarely seen 80k/m since 2008. Mainly down to BTL hover up FTB since 2002ish.

Of course, now the UK needs ~150k/month to suck up the IO BTL stock ...

 

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

Stronger household balance sheets mean consumers are in a good position to spend again as lockdown lifts

I smell bullshit.

[Loki]

16 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Merecedes sell cars aggressive finance to the young and financially illiterate like my niece who is a trainee veterinary nurse, thick as shit and cocky with it.

They've also ensured then when I am rich, I will never own a Merc.  Talk about brand dilution. 

[spygirl]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I smell bullshit.

Technically, they are correct..

However Id guess the averages covers up some extreme as both end.

And Id not bother with now.. Its October Im interested Im in.

 

[janch]

30 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Stronger household balance sheets mean consumers are in a good position to spend again as lockdown lifts

Those who've lost or are about to lose their jobs would disagree......

[spygirl]

Chart going back to the 90s.

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

18 hours ago, Errol said:

People will be buying coaches to live on.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

17 hours ago, Errol said:

Triumph Motorcycles to cut 400 jobs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-52882805

Isn't that a defeat not a triumph ?

[Bedrag Justesen]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

They've also ensured then when I am rich, I will never own a Merc.  Talk about brand dilution. 

That's why they have AMG. 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Bedrag Justesen said:

That's why they have AMG. 

I'm not a gypo or a rapper 

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, spygirl said:

These numbers are nuts.

UK household borrowing falls by a record £7.4bn in a month

Stronger household balance sheets mean consumers are in a good position to spend again as lockdown lifts

https://www.ft.com/content/f7733e07-aa3e-49ad-a077-5b908e61bccd

 

Welll ... thats one way too look at it.

In ye olde time, before 2008, they reckoned thhat the UK mortgage market needed about 80k mortgages/month to stop prices falling.

The UK has rarely seen 80k/m since 2008. Mainly down to BTL hover up FTB since 2002ish.

Of course, now the UK needs ~150k/month to suck up the IO BTL stock ...

 

 

 

I agree on October,this will take a while to settle down.

Had a look around meandthe maount of placesfor sale above £500k in Leics is unreal.I'm stuggling to see who'll be supporting the chains here.

 

[spygirl]

On 31/05/2020 at 21:50, Chewing Grass said:

Been past a compound today (Holmeswood Coaches) stuffed full of stored coaches which reminded me of Shearings (Europes Largest Coach Tour Operator) going bust in May with a fleet of 240 Coaches most of them nearly new (or new) and now probably almost worthless.

Got me thinking that:-

1) the market will probably never recover,

2) those that survive will be paying finance on coaches that are not worth what they are financed for,

3) used coaches will be worth very little

4) the market for new coaches will be dead unless the government legislates existing diesel coaches and buses off the road.

5) unemployed coach drivers are toast

No.

Coaches retain their value better than cars.

Sure, some operators fill be wiped out. But the Coach n book will be bought an they come back.

I dont see the demand for coaches n UK holidays going away. I expect demand will rise as the 70+ decade not the few fir their holidays.