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Tesla short?!


longtomsilver
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longtomsilver

I test drove the Model X yesterday and it's a *brilliant car, right on tech and proves this is no longer concept/early adopters territory but the future of driving. No worries about range anxiety from me. We drove 12 miles at 68% charge and returned with 152 miles of range in the tank.

The moment I sat in the car I realised it felt very familiar and it was... all the switch gear is mercedes from the stick controls, steering wheel and to the window operation. No hesitation from me I declined the briefing jumped in the drivers seat and off we went. 

Then the doubts started to kick in, the salesman was wax lyricalling that they had an agreement with mercedes for them to supply the switchgear from their 'S' class but all I could see was bits from the last generation C class parts bin and this familiarity started to bug me because Mercedes themselves do a much better job at placement (window controls were skewiff and the overall refinement wasn't even close to that of our E class that cost 70% less. The leather seats were comical more suited to those old reclaimed cadillac chairs used in American diners.

It just feels like a poor relation to Mercedes and they'll be bringing out their own EQ GLC in 2018 with almost as good range, usable speed and I expect using their highly finished silver switch gear not the cheap plastic bits found in my mum's B class (that I colloquially call the Mercedes Jazz for posh pensioners who have more money than sense) oh and also the six figure tesla s and x. If rumours are to go by it'll massively undercut Tesla on price. They'll also have the infrastructure in place to ramp up production to 2025 and beyond plus they have ICE to balance demand as we shift all electric.

I can't help but feel there is a great shorting opportunity here?  

Edit: but not worth  £100thou. The model 3 I expect will be kitted put like a Dacia if they have any chance of making a profit. 

Tesla as a company is like what a seaplane is to the air and sea. It's neither a good technology company (intellectual property) nor is it a good car manufacturer.

Edited by longtomsilver
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Inoperational Bumblebee

I'm not one for shorting, but I think you'd be a brave man to short Tesla. They've built quite a brand, and I think it would take quite something to knock that.

That said, what you're basing it on is quite justified. It just seems to me that it takes quite a long time for brands to lose cachet after they lower their quality. Even then, it doesn't always happen! Remember Apple's bendgate? Didn't seem to do much at all to the share price. Yes, I know VW are great example in your favour. ;)

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The Masked Tulip

Tesla, which loses about $1,500 on each car sold, is now worth more than GM and Ford combined who actually sell vast higher quanties of cars than Tesla.

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You have avoided the elephant in the room - that Teslas are really painfully average looking, dare I say, even slightly offensive in their banality.

Does this look like a £70k car to anyone?

1200px-Model_S_Facelift.png

It makes an Astra look exciting.

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People have lost a lot of money shorting Tesla in the past - when I think something like 20% of the stock was short - that was the springboard from which it rocketed. 

I wouldn't short any stock at the moment until the market has turned - just too much free money and manipulation around. Who knows who might bail out who at any point in time.

However. Tesla's future largely relies on the Model 3. If they misprice  that then their valuation is totally unsustainable. Due to back orders though it could be years into the growth profile that future large volume sales targets are not hit. The other large manufacturers have finally begun to bite the bullet on all electric and it is not rocket science.

 

 

 

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The Masked Tulip

A friend of mine has a $300 price target for Amazon. He says to fill yer boots then as it will then go to £2000 in the next run up.

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longtomsilver
3 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

You have avoided the elephant in the room - that Teslas are really painfully average looking, dare I say, even slightly offensive in their banality.

Does this look like a £70k car to anyone?

1200px-Model_S_Facelift.png

It makes an Astra look exciting.

£70k? Half that again more like and yes when the novelty wears off not only are you driving an outwardly uninspiring beast but the interior is mondeo/astra spec at best apart from the ridiculously oversized portrait flat screen infotainment system.

Volvos hybrid XC90 hybrid is super plush inside. Other manufacturers are upping their game.

Edited by longtomsilver
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longtomsilver
3 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

A friend of mine has a $300 price target for Amazon. He says to fill yer boots then as it will then go to £2000 in the next run up.

Has he put money where his mouth is? One of my friends is shouting about this on bookface today. Buy buy buy, I'll go and kick the tyres now.

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The Masked Tulip

I am fascinated by the Tesla - have watched loads of vids on youtube about it. I suffer from anxiety whilst driving and I would love to have one. I doubt it would help my anxiety though.

I am not sure how a Tesla would cope on the narrow, bendy roads of Wales. I saw a video of someone driving through heavy snow in Norway - blizzard conditions - and t was amazing how well it coped.

But, yes, they are hugely over-priced. What a lot of people do not know is that Tesla stopped supporting the first model last year re updates to the software - so they have gone down the iphone / android model of basically saying that you car is wank after 3 years. It is bad enough with a £800 smartphone but simply taking the piss with a 70K plus car.

2 minutes ago, longtomsilver said:

Has he put money where his mouth is? One of my friends is shouting about this on bookface today. Buy buy buy, I'll go and kick the tyres now.

No, he says now is not the time to short. He actually is of the opinion that we are potentially going up another 2,000 points on the NASDAQ to even up to 10,000 on the NASDAQ before a major crash. Then he says that will be when Amazon goes down to $300 so it could go to, say, $1500 before it goes to $300.

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Interesting analysis, LTS. All it needs is for a few influential car journalists to say something similar and it'll lose it's cachet. 

I know nothing about cars, but I remember idly looking at some Teslas and then looking at the price and thinking they were probably 2x the price I was expecting.  I really struggle with the idea of an average looking car being the cost of starter home a decade or so ago.  But I guess part of that just shows how the sterling has become toilet paper. 

Edited by SCC
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The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

This is a freight train that I would not stand in the way of right now, but good luck if you can time it.

There is stuff on the horizon that we don't know about but the market always looks to the future. Electric vehicles are becoming more and more common, despite Trumps attempts to roll back environmental protection.

Where I live, electric Taxis are common (the new Prius), electric vans are starting to become common (Nissan), and more people are buying these cars for daily use (BMW I8, I3, Nissan Leaf, Prius). I see about 5% of the cars on the road are now electric, 5 years ago, it was a rare sight. I've also seen a handful of Tesla Model 3s - I mistakenly thought they were Maserati's.

Capital Cities are starting to plan ban all diesel vehicles, in the near future - See Paris and Madrid.

 

tsla.png

Edited by 201p
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