• Welcome to DOSBODS

    Please consider creating a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

201p

New Presidential Cycle and the Possible Secular Bull Market in Socks.

Recommended Posts

Someone has created a list of the latest memes, some are bitconnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeccct ones.

Some of it's weird, some of it's quite clever, like the Someone has touched my spaghetti, but mixed with Queens Somebody to love song. (3rd in the list)

 

Edited by 201p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^The VIX is like a timer on a Kettle. When the kettle has come to a roaring boil, the light goes off and it switches itself off. If you haven't been watching it boil it seems OK to a new observer. This is like the VIX, it reached high levels, and still remains at high levels (around 30 or more, in the 2008 crash it got up to 90 as a point of reference). 

kettle.jpg.f8becd3ec42c6c082db361537272d1b1.jpg

The Kettle may look quiet (the market rebounded strongly), but there is boiling hot water inside that could burn you! Wait!

Untitled.png.6bcf270144f0f1bd1a0378ecfbc6eb46.png

 

 

Edited by 201p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

President Donald Trump has broken his silence on the stock market.

Trump tweeted Wednesday: "In the 'old days,' when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!"

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-breaks-silence-stock-market-decline-52905310

This is true. I've noticed probably, about 3-6 months ago, the growth stocks would just sell off after good news. Any excuse to sell off, they would. Namely BOO, G4M and probably some others that I can't remember. It's just a change in the market sentiment. Time to take profits, it was.

He did dabble in the market in the 1980s I believe buying and selling stock in Holiday Inn and turning some profit. I don't believe he really can predict or influence the market here. He is real estate 100%, a deal maker, not a stock trader, and certainly with this tweet 2 days ago (before the DOW dropping 1000pts), not a market timer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Muddy who? Put out a sell http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/iqe/mw-is-short-iqe/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iqe-shares-tumble-muddy-waters-132120526.html

Well they would talk it down as they are short selling, but let's see how this goes. They have the wind at their backs with the general market falling. Sometimes you get a bit of luck in this game with timing, it appears they might have it?

 

iqe.png.bd9f5a5cf0119684f78a998716a63999.png

Edited by 201p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A trip down memory lane. 

In the 1987 crash, one of the worst crashes in history, the SP500 fell 30%,

1987.thumb.png.816a53966b15bdf91a0cc93e8970bab5.png

^Source Yahoo Finance.

Today the SP500, if it were to fall from the same, the price target would be around 2000pts.

sp500.png.02fe2782ea799a094fd567916a008342.png

^The 150 day moving average has been a pretty reliable base for the bull market. Will it hold? Don't hold you breath though!

Edited by 201p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For fun, I have overlayed the 1987 chart with the 2018 chart. I have manipulated the X-axis so the chart fits, year for year. I have not adjusted the Y-Axis.

Image1.jpg.dcc902fd15032abe9522f4aa1b0760ec.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you sometimes get the Wylie Coyote moment, when you run off a cliff, and you're hanging in mid air? 80% lost in 2 days.

Wile_E_Coyote-Help.jpg&f=1

The once-$800 million LJM Preservation and Growth Fund lost more than 80 percent in the week ended February 7, according to Morningstar Inc, after a surprise spike in market turbulence swiped investment strategies premised on low volatility.

https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN1FT0IE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you base you whole strategy on low volatility, and we've had low volatility for well, maybe a decade since 2008, then a stopped clock is always right once. And you only need to be wrong once to be wiped out.

It's the same with low interest rates - don't assume they could be around forever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

N4P maybe interesting if it can clear the 30p area - but do your own research. AIM is high risk.

----

Bitcoin $8,661

Ethereum $845

Litecoin $158

Stellar 38c

Not a lot going on. I suspect frustrated stale bulls are being churned around in the swell. This is a good sign of some sort of bottom - but maybe not!

The bitcoin is more time compressed. What happens in the stock market over 1-2 years, happens in the space of 1-3 months. 

 

 

The VIX is down to 25, so not out of the woods, but going in the right direction for bulls that have held on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 05/02/2018 at 11:23, dgul said:

Short closed.

The hedge has come back.  The short is now on again.

I'm not so confident this time -- I wouldn't short without the hedge.  (it'll either go down to $2k or so, or up to $15k -- unlikely to stay at 8-9k for hte rest of the month. I'd put down as far more likely than up, but upside risk is real).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lottey - I play the odd ticket every now and again. I very rarely win anything over the last 20 years or so. I normally do a online compare, over a set time like But this time like the last 3 months, just to see if I won a big prize even though I may I have not played. Usually there are no wins either.

I usually buy a lucky dip which selects random numbers. But this time I may keep these ones.

But this week, it was a little odd....

Untitledl.png.2c569e99ac8653258fd7745aba6fd60f.png

How could one ticket produce so many wins if each number has the same probability of coming up? This is totally weird.

Prize breakdown

1- Match 2, Lucky dip play again for free

2- Match 4, £123. (I didn't win this one)

3- Match 2, Lucky dip play again for free.

4. Match 3, £25 - I won this prize.

Sorry not going to reveal the numers - but someone with time may be able to work it out.

Edited by 201p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.