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201p

New Presidential Cycle and the Possible Secular Bull Market in Socks.

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So we have had one of the biggest up moves in the stock market in the last 2 years. This has killed most of the bears that haven't gotten out quickly with their profits or got their entry point wrong. I am still bearish, but where next? I think we are probably reaching a semi top here at 7K, and it will take an enormous amount of buying power to clear 7.5K.

So is there another down leg around the corner?

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So lets have a look at our forest fire survivors progress. Remarkably well in a bear market!

As Yoda says - "PATIENCE YOUNG PADAWAN!"

Bear markets clear the forest allowing you to find the gems in the rough. The key is to put your money where it doesn't lose value, but benefits when the market swings upwards, and flys in the next bull market.

AXS 105p --> 122p +16.19%

SPE  1150p --> 1305p +13.47% 

TMMG 58p --> 57.5p -0.86% OK we are a little down, but we're holding on until our stop is hit.

Not investment advice - do your own research.

Edited by 201p

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On 28/12/2018 at 19:15, 201p said:

 

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SO I check back on this one, and noticed that it hasn't moved in a week. So I guessed it has been suspended. This page confirms it, but I probably need to dig deeper into why there was a lot of speculation in this stock.

EDIT - something to do with Blockchain in the article, I guess that is why people may be excited. 

https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/arthavest-arta-kejar-diversifikasi-bisnis-50-pada-2020

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. PT Arthavest Tbk (ARTA) targets that in 2020 the diversification of its financial services industry can contribute 50% to revenue. Currently the issuer's source of income comes from the hotel business.

PT Sentral lovely Indonesia (SPIN), a subsidiary of ARTA, plans to focus on portfolio diversification, especially in the case of digital signatures. SPIN itself has a subsidiary that focuses on the digital signature industry, namely PT Solusi Net Internusa (SNI).

"Because SNI is present in 2018, so there is currently no contribution to our income, it may only appear in 2020. The hope is that as much as possible the share (financial industry business to income) can be greater than 50%," said ARTA President Director Yeremy Vincentius on Wednesday (1/9).

The portfolio diversification plan itself, has started to consider the issuer since 2016. This is because, the growth of the hotel business began to enter a saturated phase, especially in the Jakarta area.

ARTA's current source of income, almost 100% rely on the business of its subsidiary, PT Sanggraha Dhika, which manages the hotel business. Sanggraha only manages one hotel in the shopping district, namely Redtop Hotel.

Reflecting on these conditions, ARTA decided not only to rely on revenue from the hospitality industry. This year, the company will focus on boosting the financial industry for the next 3 to 4 years.

"We will continue to hold the hotel industry, but we hope we have several industries that we invest in to balance each other and lead to solid business," he explained.

For this reason, in the future ARTA through SNI will continue to boost the digital signature business. One of the things that is being worked on this year is the development of a mechanism to verify the source of identity of Blokchain data.

"So like security of identity, we can identify who can enter data into blockchain, and its development does not rule out the possibility of being able to change and increase," he said.

However, for this year ARTA will still rely on revenue growth from the performance of the Redtop Hotel. Where revenue is predicted to grow 15% to 20% from last year's achievement.

As an illustration, in the first nine months of 2018 ARTA still posted a rise in comprehensive company profits of 44.04% or as much as Rp 5.89 billion from the same period last year which was Rp 4.09 billion. As for business revenues, the issuer posted a slight increase of 2% to IDR 61.71 billion.

"Even though profits are small, but our rates are big, around Rp. 20 billion in a year and the 2018 performance so far is still on track," he explained.

This year ARTA focuses on maintaining a portfolio, and expects revenue from growth in occupancy rates and increases in hotel prices. The company also continues to emphasize efficiency in 2019.

[The web page has been translated]

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More on range bound price action.... and bull traps take no prisoners.

This is what Bitcoin has done in the last few hours. If you were caught trying to buy the breakout past $4K, and didn't take your losses early you would have your head handed to you now. 

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Edited by 201p

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Well after three months of ball crunching misery on my domestically focused portfolio I have had more than a bit of a bounce, nearly 10% now in fact since the nadir of misery in mid December. Life assurance and builders particularly finding overdrive since the New Year.

Til next week I guess when Brexit chaos resumes.

Edited by crashmonitor

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11 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Well after three months of ball crunching misery on my domestically focused portfolio I have had more than a bit of a bounce, nearly 10% now in fact since the nadir of misery in mid December. Life assurance and builders particularly finding overdrive since the New Year.

Til next week I guess when Brexit chaos resumes.

Across all the portfolios in my control we had a similar story, for now at least we are headed in the right direction. There's a few actively managed funds that had fared worse than both of us - two in my mother's ISA were down 15%+ with one of those only marginally improved. So technically we are ahead of the suits.

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yeah most charts are like this, G4M which I first mentioned at the beginning of this thread, but have not re-looked at since once I migrated from TOS to DOSBODS. For most of 2018 the market was mostly treading water, and was a warning to be careful. It will take time to heal, so no rush to buy anything even if it looks cheap.

G4M had a gap down from £5 to £2+ odd. No stop would save you!

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^ Even online retailers are finding it tough - or the market doesn't think it's immediate prospects are healthy

 

Edited by 201p

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Flybe - anyone brave could have bought at 10p as it held briefly and got up to 20p. High risk play, but possible to double your money. But now a lower low. The market doesn't like it's prospects.

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9 minutes ago, 201p said:

Flybe dropped 77% in one day (yesterday). It closed at 3.75p.

News is that Stobart CEO bought 10%. It is odd that the stock drops on that kind of news.

http://www.cityam.com/271522/former-stobart-ceo-buys-share-flybe-ahead-proposed-takeover

I nearly bought at 8p but didn't have the balls. My gut said long term the airline didn't have much of a future but fancied my chances at a quick trade on any takeover news but alas, bottled it. My phone went crazy yesterday with that drop. I've not really looked into it in depth it but essentially i think virgin did a number on them as to be expected and the shareholders have got screwed. Airline to be rebranded and fly under virgin

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Here's some stocks that appear to be thriving at this point in time. You could say they are the new defensive stocks, and they're bricks and mortar!

Bargain basement SHOEzone is perking up (everyone has to buy shoes, and you probably want to try them on rather than order online and wait if you have hole in your current pair)

Greggs, they always seem busy when I walk past. The market likes the sound of it's Vegan Sausage Rolls. The "W" pattern may put a target of £20 on this. But do your own research (like trying a Vegan Roll first - tell the wife it is for research purposes).

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Edited by 201p

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2yr Highs Vs 2yr Lows

6:8

Or 1.33

The low numbers 6 and 8 mean most stocks are wandering right now after the strong rebound.

Edited by 201p

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Don't get this naivety - won't the thieves just strike again? They need to spend another £5K on security or the new roof will be for nought. 

---

A RECTOR in Damerham is looking to raise £10,000 after lead was stolen from the village church’s historic bell tower.

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/17356060.reverend-leslie-player-launches-appeal-after-lead-stolen-from-st-georges-church/

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Big Stalwart Company losing sales (to changing trends) > Hires Consultancy > Decides To Get Woke > New Progressive Campaign > Main Customer base is Demonised (Bigoted, Racist, Sexist) > Get Broke.

This appears to be the trend right now.

^This falls in line with the current bear stock market trend. Let it fall, Let it fall, Let it fall.

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The small holders are being scared out - FLYB down another 31% this morning to 2.8p

If Virgin and Stobart are taking it over, they are going to get it cheap.

In normal times people bid up the stock on rumours of a take over, but, these are not normal times.

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A chart tells a story

PG&E Corp., owner of California’s largest electric utility, warned Monday that it plans to file for bankruptcy protection on Jan. 29, pushed to the brink by wildfire lawsuits that could cost the company $30 billion.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/who-could-get-hurt-by-pgandes-fire-driven-bankruptcy/ar-BBSfGiX?li=BBnbcA1Untitled.thumb.gif.e3e98cc2c1ac0d924195ed99c8339ef3.gif

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4 hours ago, 201p said:

The small holders are being scared out - FLYB down another 31% this morning to 2.8p

If Virgin and Stobart are taking it over, they are going to get it cheap.

In normal times people bid up the stock on rumours of a take over, but, these are not normal times.

From what I understand, the consortium are buying Flybe for 1p per share and adding £80m of additional investment. 

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On 14/01/2019 at 04:16, 201p said:

 

I went to a talk where the guys at Ocado were showing this off and saying it could be adapted to grow food in a factory environment with artificial lighting under each compartment. Could lead to urban farming. They seemed more keen on selling the idea rather than developing it themselves. 

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