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spunko

Henry Pryor / Top of the market stats

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Don't know about anyone else but I've always admired Henry Pryor and his insight & honesty, even if he is an estate agent in all but name. This caught my eye:

Henry Pryor, an independent luxury property buying agent, describes the market as nothing short of brutal. ‘The pre-Brexit market is much tougher than many appreciate. If you search websites like Rightmove for £1million-plus listings, it will return more than 23,000 across the country. Last month fewer than 400 sold — that’s how tough it is.

That is ... 1.7%. You may as well not bloody bother.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-6582109/How-sell-home-tough-market.html

Anyone got any other Henry Pryor quotes from recent times?

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Agree. His aim might well be to make money from people buying houses but he’s not just a typical industry shill for higher prices. Always seems honest (and likes to poke fun at the Tenant Tax lot too). 

From today...

Obvious to the likes of us but how often do you hear that in the mainstream.

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5 hours ago, Gloommonger said:

Maybe only 400 of those 23000 are worth 1 million. I have always thought however, that 1 million pound homes are good value compared to the half million pound shitboxes.

T'was ever thus, the higher up you go the more value you get. A £500k house is at least 5x bigger and better than a £250k house in the same neighbourhood.

Unless you're in London then it seems to just price at whatever number you pull out your backside.

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On 16/01/2019 at 20:53, spunko said:

Interesting graph from Henry about asking prices vs sold prices.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxBmobpWoAAgvC2.jpg

DxBmobpWoAAgvC2.jpg

That gulf is still growing...

Henry is well worth following.His business is getting value for his buyers from what i understand and his market commentaries are always generally insightful

When I get back to the UK and have time I'll psot a chart that gets included in the LSL or LCP acadata series and that overlays Halifax/Nwide/LSL/RMV/Land Reg for YoY changes.Surprisingly Rightmove is the most negative iirc

On 14/01/2019 at 14:10, Gloommonger said:

Maybe only 400 of those 23000 are worth 1 million. I have always thought however, that 1 million pound homes are good value compared to the half million pound shitboxes.

Thats 60 motnhs of inventroy to clear..........................................yikes.

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13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

When I get back to the UK and have time I'll psot a chart that gets included in the LSL or LCP acadata series and that overlays Halifax/Nwide/LSL/RMV/Land Reg for YoY changes.Surprisingly Rightmove is the most negative iirc

In a strange moment of synchronicity, Henry himself appears to have posted that very chart this morning...

 

Unless... you’re actually Henry Pryor

¬¬

:)

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On 14/01/2019 at 19:42, spunko said:

T'was ever thus, the higher up you go the more value you get. A £500k house is at least 5x bigger and better than a £250k house in the same neighbourhood.

Unless you're in London then it seems to just price at whatever number you pull out your backside.

Indeed.

Every area used to have a price where the buyer just disappeared.

Youd get about 50k/bedroom up to about 4 bedrooms, then it falls off. The bigger houses onyl getting fraction fo that 50k.

Same in rentals.

I remember looking 10 years ago and there was stuff like 3br estate house - 800/m.

Than 8br manor house in the sticks, paddock, 5 acres. 1800/m

Big houses are bad investment.

Or, more exact, houses costing more than 4x 90% of the local population earns have very very very few buyers.

2002-2017 covered that, with the dumb banks being very willing to lend to these places.

No more with MMR.

 

 

 

 

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I keep reading this about MMR but from what I can tell it’s completley toothless if the DEBTmortgage term can just be extended out over enough years to keep the monthly payments within “MMR rules”

 Hence 35year mortgages now the norm

what am I missing?

Edited by Wig

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1 hour ago, Wig said:

I keep reading this about MMR but from what I can tell it’s completley toothless if the DEBTmortgage term can just be extended out over enough years to keep the monthly payments within “MMR rules”

 Hence 35year mortgages now the norm

what am I missing?

You are missing that its MMR v1.

They got it thru by letting the 35y mortgage

Itll change.

Now imagine MMRv2 that indists 15% of income goes in pension and the mortgage is finushed by SSR age.

Most grown up banks insust mortgage is cleared by retirement.

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

You are missing that its MMR v1.

They got it thru by letting the 35y mortgage

Itll change.

Now imagine MMRv2 that indists 15% of income goes in pension and the mortgage is finushed by SSR age.

Most grown up banks insust mortgage is cleared by retirement.

Ok thanks when does mmr2 come in?

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9 hours ago, Wig said:

Ok thanks when does mmr2 come in?

MMR has only been in place ~4 years.

Tghere's already muttering about a reducing LTE/removign the option of 15% being >5.4 LTV.

Your are already seeing its affect - look at the gap between asking and getting prices.

Look at the small number of transactions.

BoE should have never been here - MMR reuglations should have been in place in the 70s.

Its only as a result of theat giormless fucker Brown blowing up the UKS banking sector that the BoE sceptics have finally been alowed to tidy up the mess - after horse has bolted.

 

 

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Henry's back with a glossary of EA terms.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-6971981/Do-really-make-offer-excess-estate-agent-terms-mean.html

Almost as dry as William Hanson the  DM's resident etiquette expert

He continued: 'The asking price is an indication of the seller's greed or the estate agent's enthusiasm to get the business.

'I've never met a seller who thinks their property is less than the estate agent's valuation or the other house for sale in the road.'

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Commercial landlords and their shareholders who refuse to recognise the cold winds now blowing down the High Street will get what they deserve. ‘Upwards only rent reviews’ was the family motto of King Canute!

D81-3n9WwAEEgd5.jpg
Edited by sancho panza

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13 hours ago, spunko said:

I can guarantee you that is going to cost a fortune to run.

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On 20/06/2019 at 10:42, spunko said:

The number of sales is fucking dead.

Has been in the South for ~2-3 years.

North ahs been like that for 10-15 years.

In real terms, most of the Northern has not shown increase in since 2005ish. Yet prices are still high relative to earnings, hardly surpising as the bulk of Browns the cunts bubble was 2001->2004 where prices double or tripled.

Most sales appear to be HTB, which is a disaster i nthe wings when the 5 years is up - if you needed HTB to buy then you are fukced. No banks wants to touch the remortgages ... unless you were ich enough to not need HTB.

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, spygirl said:

The number of sales is fucking dead.

Has been in the South for ~2-3 years.

North ahs been like that for 10-15 years.

In real terms, most of the Northern has not shown increase in since 2005ish. Yet prices are still high relative to earnings, hardly surpising as the bulk of Browns the cunts bubble was 2001->2004 where prices double or tripled.

Most sales appear to be HTB, which is a disaster i nthe wings when the 5 years is up - if you needed HTB to buy then you are fukced. No banks wants to touch the remortgages ... unless you were ich enough to not need HTB.

 

 

 

 

Take away drop in transactions,take away HTB 1+2,take away FLS and this is a market that will find price equilibrium deep beneath the five year moving average

image.png.f2cb501d7cdaa15896a971580bd0c290.png

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2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Take away drop in transactions,take away HTB 1+2,take away FLS and this is a market that will find price equilibrium deep beneath the five year moving average

image.png.f2cb501d7cdaa15896a971580bd0c290.png

That, by itself, would  be bad.

However  the demographic age exposure makes uk housing nuts, when you see that most housing ownership is skewed even more in the 55+. And, rather than paying off mortgage, they ve double, tripled, quadrupled exposure via btl. And are carrying huge sums of mortgage debt - io is like herpes.

 

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