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spygirl

How Britain's £239billion buy-to-let bubble burst

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On the main forum, considering where this site came from.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-6620839/How-Britains-239billion-buy-let-bubble-burst.html

How Britain's £239billion buy-to-let bubble burst: Our devastating audit shows 'amateur' landlords have been ruined by ruthless tax penalties

In 2007, around 183,000 buy-to-let mortgages were being approved each year 

New figures suggest the number given out in 2018 plunged below 70,000

Existing landlords are offloading around 3,800 properties a month

My opinion remaisn the same - regulated banks should nto be writing IO/non amortising loans.

The leverage behind IO BTL is insane.

The prices charged for the IO BTL are insane, similar or less than OOO repayment loans - at its core an IO BTL loan is a commercial business loan which needs to be charging 3% per month.

70k is still way too high. People have to be insnae to be taking out a BTL loan.

The outcome for IO BTL was always going to be the rentals and the LL being sold.

 

 

Edited by spygirl

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5 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

While immigration stays around 300k, interest rates are low and nothing substantial is being built it’s all still viable for those with plenty of cash. Change any of that, and the game will change too. 

Going by the nubmer of empty 'To Lets' I see out n about think thats up too.

Sure there's migrants but they are living in dodgy slums, 10 a room.

BTL with bank lending require the LL to check the immigration status and require them to have a bank accoutn and pay cash.

 

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7 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

While immigration stays around 300k, interest rates are low and nothing substantial is being built it’s all still viable for those with plenty of cash. Change any of that, and the game will change too. 

I see BTL in a different light on reflection. The aim always was to displace housing from the OO sector into a free float available to rent out as an enabler for huge levels of economic migration and immigration. It explains why there was so much of a light touch at every level, finance, regulation, taxation.

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2 minutes ago, onlyme said:

I see BTL in a different light on reflection. The aim always was to displace housing from the OO sector into a free float available to rent out as an enabler for huge levels of economic migration and immigration. It explains why there was so much of a light touch at every level, finance, regulation, taxation.

Thats a very complex, involved statement which ignore the obvious cause -

That cunt Brown blew the biggest credit boom the UK has ever seen, just so he looked a genius,  then crashed the economy.

Lasted from 2001-2007 - 6 years. Ended 10 years ago and we are still seeing the ripple effects of that one eyed cunt.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Thats a very complex, involved statement which ignore the obvious cause -

That cunt Brown blew the biggest credit boom the UK has ever seen, just so he looked a genius,  then crashed the economy.

Lasted from 2001-2007 - 6 years. Ended 10 years ago and we are still seeing the ripple effects of that one eyed cunt.

No argument from me re. Brown's abilities, absolute charlatan, but he also rambled on about New World Order and seemed very keen on delivering that, double bubble.

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2 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

Only because the Cameron govt was too gutless to do it’s traditional disagreeable Tory job and cleanup the mess left by Labour. They carried on many of the Blair/Brown policies and are now every bit as guilty, although they didn’t start it all. 

Agreed.

IN 2010 the coalion had a chance to get on with an emergency clear up.

And they did fuck all, then as the economic destroying nature of Browns scheme came, Gidiot hen started on his mini Brown scheme anmes HTB and various 'get the chinese in', all of which are blowing up.

All they had to do was put the brakes on IO lending - no law needed, just march the banks and get the BoE to read the riot act.

Followed by cutting 200/m off TCa for 3 years and bumping up the hours to work from 16 to 30.

Then denying all TC to non Brits.

Capping HB to 600/m would have helped. and denying HB to non Brits too.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Agreed.

IN 2010 the coalion had a chance to get on with an emergency clear up.

And they did fuck all, then as the economic destroying nature of Browns scheme came, Gidiot hen started on his mini Brown scheme anmes HTB and various 'get the chinese in', all of which are blowing up.

All they had to do was put the brakes on IO lending - no law needed, just march the banks and get the BoE to read the riot act.

Followed by cutting 200/m off TCa for 3 years and bumping up the hours to work from 16 to 30.

Then denying all TC to non Brits.

Capping HB to 600/m would have helped. and denying HB to non Brits too.

 

 

They all follow the same globalist agenda. From thatcher forward, they have been implementing the same anti democratic, anti nation, globalist polices. All of them. 

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1 minute ago, Frank Hovis said:

Yep.

John Major for one has revealed his true globalist colours over the last couple of years.  He certainly had me fooled at the time.

Yes I previously thought of him in a fairly positive way as the best PM of my lifetime.

Given recent pronouncements of his it looks more like he didn’t shaft everyone when PM simply because he didn’t dare to do so, rather than because he thought it was wrong. 

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How Britain's £239billion buy-to-let bubble burst: Our devastating audit shows 'amateur' landlords have been ruined by ruthless tax penalties while the big boys come in and hoover everything up

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26 minutes ago, A_P said:

How Britain's £239billion buy-to-let bubble burst: Our devastating audit shows 'amateur' landlords have been ruined by ruthless tax penalties while the big boys come in and hoover everything up

Theresno big boy hovering up 3 bed rooms houses.

The only big boy landlords there is are interested in large blocks of purpose built flats - Barbican is the best example.

 

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Just now, spygirl said:

Theresno big boy hovering up 3 bed rooms houses.

The only big boy landlords there is are interested in large blocks of purpose built flats - Barbican is the best example.

 

My big boy is a loose term for anyone with cash, not just REIT's or any other commercial entity. With that said they may not be buying in big numbers at the moment but we are early days in what will be another big asset swipe. They're just starting to lay the foundations of what is to come.

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5 minutes ago, A_P said:

My big boy is a loose term for anyone with cash, not just REIT's or any other commercial entity. With that said they may not be buying in big numbers at the moment but we are early days in what will be another big asset swipe. They're just starting to lay the foundations of what is to come.

They will no touch a rag tag collection of semis and flats.

Its insane to even think it.

A private lare LL wants a large block somewhere where there are rich people payig rent wit htheir own money.

Or students lets.

The ywant the property to be al lthe same, built to their spec. Not 100s of Tayllor Wimpey shitboxes.

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Just now, spygirl said:

They will no touch a rag tag collection of semis and flats.

Its insane to even think it.

A private lare LL wants a large block somewhere where there are rich people payig rent wit htheir own money.

Or students lets.

The ywant the property to be al lthe same, built to their spec. Not 100s of Tayllor Wimpey shitboxes.

Of course they won't....just like MMR will save the day?  So a competant landlord, investor, instituion that has the opporitunty to buy property or the land it sits on at a discount will ignore it because they want all their property to be the same? xD I suppose the public will swoop in en masse once liquitdy/credit dries up with their huge cash reserves to take advtange of these great savings. Might be time to invest in B&Q as we see all these rentals get converted back into decent living spaces xD

I'm sorry Spy, this is just history repeating itself. The evidence is there. Plebs given a get quick rich scheme after having a previous too good to be true investment pilaged. You can hope that your MMR and Basel will come to fruition at some point, maybe you might be right one day. Who knows. You can also blame "hapless" decisions on the pols but come on, do you ever question that it might just be by design?

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4 minutes ago, A_P said:

Of course they won't....just like MMR will save the day?  So a competant landlord, investor, instituion that has the opporitunty to buy property or the land it sits on at a discount will ignore it because they want all their property to be the same? xD I suppose the public will swoop in en masse once liquitdy/credit dries up with their huge cash reserves to take advtange of these great savings. Might be time to invest in B&Q as we see all these rentals get converted back into decent living spaces xD

I'm sorry Spy, this is just history repeating itself. The evidence is there. Plebs given a get quick rich scheme after having a previous too good to be true investment pilaged. You can hope that your MMR and Basel will come to fruition at some point, maybe you might be right one day. Who knows. You can also blame "hapless" decisions on the pols but come on, do you ever question that it might just be by design?

There is a lot of pent up buying power.  My two kids are desperate to buy but are holding off for the crash (based on my advice. xD). There will be a lot in this position 

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4 minutes ago, A_P said:

Of course they won't....just like MMR will save the day?  So a competant landlord, investor, instituion that has the opporitunty to buy property or the land it sits on at a discount will ignore it because they want all their property to be the same? xD I suppose the public will swoop in en masse once liquitdy/credit dries up with their huge cash reserves to take advtange of these great savings. Might be time to invest in B&Q as we see all these rentals get converted back into decent living spaces xD

I'm sorry Spy, this is just history repeating itself. The evidence is there. Plebs given a get quick rich scheme after having a previous too good to be true investment pilaged. You can hope that your MMR and Basel will come to fruition at some point, maybe you might be right one day. Who knows. You can also blame "hapless" decisions on the pols but come on, do you ever question that it might just be by design?

The yield on IO BTL are too low for a competent LL to come in.

Your argument is poor - surely if there were competent large LL around then why did they not buy these houses before all the IO BTL did?

You seem to be making the assumption that there are vast riches to make in BTL housing. There isnt FFS.

IO BTL was always about idiot LL borrowing too much, non amortising, from idiot banks.

Both Basel 3 and MMR are in place.

As a result of Basel all IO lending by banks has been stopped. IO lending is only for specialist fiannce houses who raise the money from bonds not BoE.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, One percent said:

There is a lot of pent up buying power.  My two kids are desperate to buy but are holding off for the crash (based on my advice. xD). There will be a lot in this position 

I don't dispute there are people in that position. I'm one of them. But i disgree we are the majority. Most don't have a penny to their name

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2 minutes ago, One percent said:

There is a lot of pent up buying power.  My two kids are desperate to buy but are holding off for the crash (based on my advice. xD). There will be a lot in this position 

Nope.

Wages having barely risen in the last 10-15 years.

There are very few people with 10K+ in cash.

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6 minutes ago, One percent said:

There is a lot of pent up buying power.  My two kids are desperate to buy but are holding off for the crash (based on my advice. xD). There will be a lot in this position 

I agree with the sentiments of the others, the demand is there but not the cash to find a deposit. 

I cant agree with your stance on Margaret Thatcher though. Her objective was to encourage a property owning democracy, her vision was gamed by the banks. However some did get the opportunity that they would not otherwise have had to own their own home. 

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Very depressing article.

It is completely clear to each and every reader that the blame for the coming drop in house prices lies solely with the introduction of a punishment tax regime.  

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