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Asset Class Returns 1900 - 2017


Frank Hovis

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This is cracking read.  Though it's a big PDF so don't do it on a phone.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/media/media-release/2018/02/giry-summary-2018.pdf

I wa strying to get something that compared across asset classes and this does though not on the same graph.

These are real, i.e. inflation adjusted, returns 1900 - 2017:

From $1 - developed markets 12,877 (8.4% pa), emerguing markets 4,367 (7.4% pa)  That 1% makes a big difference - page 9.

From $1: equities 1,654 / 6.5% pa, Bonds 10.2 / 2.0% pa, Bills 2.6 / 0.8% - page 10.

(It was reading charts like these years ago that convinced me long term equity holidng beat everything).

And collectibles don't actually do badly at all, seems a slightly different equity index, all again from $1 in 1900:

Equities 387, Cars 242, WIne 65 then the rest 7 - 30 with stamps (sadly as I have a few) at worst with 7 - page 25.

On p26 we have housing, again infaltion adjusted and starting from $100 in 1900.

The US with its plentiful land and relaxed planning laws wins (in my book) with the low of 139.

The top three in ascending order are Finland (really?) 654, the UK at 784, and a mile in the distance Australia at 1,297.  Australian property is flashing a huge SELL sign there.

It's an interesting read but a big PDF - 43 pages with lots of pictures.

 

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On 02/02/2019 at 14:00, Frank Hovis said:

This is cracking read.  Though it's a big PDF so don't do it on a phone.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/media/media-release/2018/02/giry-summary-2018.pdf

I wa strying to get something that compared across asset classes and this does though not on the same graph.

These are real, i.e. inflation adjusted, returns 1900 - 2017:

From $1 - developed markets 12,877 (8.4% pa), emerguing markets 4,367 (7.4% pa)  That 1% makes a big difference - page 9.

From $1: equities 1,654 / 6.5% pa, Bonds 10.2 / 2.0% pa, Bills 2.6 / 0.8% - page 10.

(It was reading charts like these years ago that convinced me long term equity holidng beat everything).

And collectibles don't actually do badly at all, seems a slightly different equity index, all again from $1 in 1900:

Equities 387, Cars 242, WIne 65 then the rest 7 - 30 with stamps (sadly as I have a few) at worst with 7 - page 25.

On p26 we have housing, again infaltion adjusted and starting from $100 in 1900.

The US with its plentiful land and relaxed planning laws wins (in my book) with the low of 139.

The top three in ascending order are Finland (really?) 654, the UK at 784, and a mile in the distance Australia at 1,297.  Australian property is flashing a huge SELL sign there.

It's an interesting read but a big PDF - 43 pages with lots of pictures.

 

Thanks for that @Frank Hovis, something to read this afternoon. Of course we mustn't forget the magic words - "past performance is no guide to future results" - which always seems a bit odd to me.

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24 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

Thanks for that @Frank Hovis, something to read this afternoon. Of course we mustn't forget the magic words - "past performance is no guide to future results" - which always seems a bit odd to me.

It's a bit odd but it's worth saying because people suffer the biggest losses when they buy into an asset class that has already had a boom (IT stocks bubble, tulip bulbs, gold a few years ago, houses now).

Long term there are patterns of return intrinsic to asset classes against certain economic backgrounds.

As examples:

Growing economies, equities go up

High inflation, gold goes up

So absolutely in those cases past performance in a particular set of circumstances is a very good guide.

One thing that always stands out is that in the long term cash and bonds always lose.  Somebody should tell my DB pension provider.

 

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Thank you, I shall digest.

At a quick search, not one word on "Bitcoin" (I did a CTRL+F), one has to remember if there is any agenda behind a funded piece of work.  So that was unfortunate, as we all know a few quid in Bitcoin could be worth £10m at the top.

 

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  • 5 months later...

January to June 2019

US Mid Cap Growth 25.27%
US Small Cap Growth 24.00%
US Large Cap Growth 22.36%
US Mid Cap 21.78%
Precious Metals 21.19%
US Small Cap 19.46%
REIT 19.23%
US Stock Market 18.62%
US Large Cap 18.47%
US Mid Cap Value 18.13%
US Small Cap Value 15.57%
European Stocks 15.40%
US Large Cap Value 14.89%
Long-Term Corporate Bonds 13.96%
Intl Developed ex-US Market 13.76%
Global ex-US Stock Market 13.21%
International ex-US Small Cap 12.11%
Emerging Markets 12.05%
Corporate Bonds 11.92%
Commodities 11.63%
US Micro Cap 11.07%
High Yield Corporate Bonds 10.73%
Long Term Treasury 10.57%
Pacific Stocks 9.89%
Gold 9.86%
International ex-US Value 9.44%
10-year Treasury 6.65%
Total US Bond Market 6.06%
TIPS 5.98%
Long-Term Tax-Exempt 5.76%
Intermediate Term Treasury 5.21%
Global Bonds (Unhedged) 4.96%
Global Bonds (USD Hedged) 4.87%
Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt 4.71%
Short-Term Investment Grade 4.09%
Short Term Treasury 2.60%
Inflation 1.93%
Short-Term Tax-Exempt 1.47%
Cash 1.20%
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On 02/02/2019 at 14:00, Frank Hovis said:

This is cracking read.  Though it's a big PDF so don't do it on a phone.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/media/media-release/2018/02/giry-summary-2018.pdf

I wa strying to get something that compared across asset classes and this does though not on the same graph.

These are real, i.e. inflation adjusted, returns 1900 - 2017:

From $1 - developed markets 12,877 (8.4% pa), emerguing markets 4,367 (7.4% pa)  That 1% makes a big difference - page 9.

From $1: equities 1,654 / 6.5% pa, Bonds 10.2 / 2.0% pa, Bills 2.6 / 0.8% - page 10.

(It was reading charts like these years ago that convinced me long term equity holidng beat everything).

And collectibles don't actually do badly at all, seems a slightly different equity index, all again from $1 in 1900:

Equities 387, Cars 242, WIne 65 then the rest 7 - 30 with stamps (sadly as I have a few) at worst with 7 - page 25.

On p26 we have housing, again infaltion adjusted and starting from $100 in 1900.

The US with its plentiful land and relaxed planning laws wins (in my book) with the low of 139.

The top three in ascending order are Finland (really?) 654, the UK at 784, and a mile in the distance Australia at 1,297.  Australian property is flashing a huge SELL sign there.

It's an interesting read but a big PDF - 43 pages with lots of pictures.

 

I know for a fact that the classic car market and classic watch markets are in bubble territory. 

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Frank Hovis
19 minutes ago, No One said:

I know for a fact that the classic car market and classic watch markets are in bubble territory. 

I read similar about cars earlier this year; the mad prices for E types and Ferraris were not being met at auction.

I know absolutely zero about classic watches so can't comment on them. @longtomsilver will know more; though that isn't hard!

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Castlevania
25 minutes ago, No One said:

I know for a fact that the classic car market and classic watch markets are in bubble territory. 

Video games too. The premium people will pay for printed card is mind boggling. (That’s the difference in price between just getting the game cartridge on it’s own and with the manual, and the box).

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1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Video games too. The premium people will pay for printed card is mind boggling.

?

 

Videa is a rapidly depreciating good. I buy my games 1 month after release from eBay at half the original purchase price.

 

What games are apreciating ? I'd like to know.

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Castlevania
Just now, No One said:

?

 

Videa is a rapidly depreciating good. I buy my games 1 month after release from eBay at half the original purchase price.

 

What games are apreciating ? I'd like to know.

Old stuff. What people were playing in the 1990’s.

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You should see what people are paying for Magic of the Gathering, current and old stuff, absolutely mental. 

Personally I see no point in going into this stuff now unless you already have a decent position. What are the kids into now? Unfortunately most of it is digital. How about amiibos or whatever they're called xD

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2 hours ago, No One said:

I know for a fact that the classic car market and classic watch markets are in bubble territory. 

Been watching lotus elises for a couple of years they have steadily been increasing that’s sort of stoped now they will be a future classic and the Honda 2000

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longtomsilver
3 hours ago, No One said:

I know for a fact that the classic car market and classic watch markets are in bubble territory. 

I beg to differ. Other than a few pieces from the likes of Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars most appear to depreciate like the second hand car market (Omega/Breitling/Tag @40%-70% discount to retail). Hardly bubbly? Rolex's do tend to do well on the secondary market as they appeal to both rich and poor. (The rich won't care about value and may choose an *IWC piece over a Rolex while the Del Boy's of the world will always opt for the Rolex keeping demand high and supply tight). 

*arguably Rolex aren't even great, their movements are agricultural or in the words of Rolex themselves singularly reliable, tool watches. The aforementioned IWC along with Vacheron Constantin and Richard Mille et al are horological masterpieces, the stuff of wet dreams but don't lend themselves well as investment pieces.

My investment piece (if I had to buy just one) would be the non-date Submariner. You won't get hold of a GMT Master II from a retailer without first building a rapport but you might get hold of the Sub in a reasonable time frame (1-2 years).

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

I read similar about cars earlier this year; the mad prices for E types and Ferraris were not being met at auction.

I know absolutely zero about classic watches so can't comment on them. @longtomsilver will know more; though that isn't hard!

Thank you Frank. I'm a poor substitute to @Knock Out Johnny

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23 hours ago, longtomsilver said:

I beg to differ. Other than a few pieces from the likes of Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars most appear to depreciate like the second hand car market (Omega/Breitling/Tag @40%-70% discount to retail). Hardly bubbly? Rolex's do tend to do well on the secondary market as they appeal to both rich and poor. (The rich won't care about value and may choose an *IWC piece over a Rolex while the Del Boy's of the world will always opt for the Rolex keeping demand high and supply tight). 

*arguably Rolex aren't even great, their movements are agricultural or in the words of Rolex themselves singularly reliable, tool watches. The aforementioned IWC along with Vacheron Constantin and Richard Mille et al are horological masterpieces, the stuff of wet dreams but don't lend themselves well as investment pieces.

My investment piece (if I had to buy just one) would be the non-date Submariner. You won't get hold of a GMT Master II from a retailer without first building a rapport but you might get hold of the Sub in a reasonable time frame (1-2 years).

Thank you Frank. I'm a poor substitute to @Knock Out Johnny

WW2 timepieces (mil issue) are up 5 times than in 08

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