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Wight Flight

Lottery lunacy

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Just wow.

http://home.bt.com/lifestyle/money/money-tips/what-are-the-odds-of-winning-our-other-lotteries-11363999071571

The average person spends £416 per year on lottery and scratchcards.

Given that my spend is zero, my big boys book of probability (D. Abbot, 2017, in all good bookshops) tells me that my opposite number is spending £832 per year.

The reason I found his, though, is was that I was thinking about the postcode lottery. How can this be equitable?

Postcodes vary between one and 100 homes. My postcode has as much chance of winning as any. So let's assume one in 5 people play and the prize is £1m. There are 5 houses in my postcode, so the likelihood is that I am the only player and will get the whole £1m.

Mug punter, on the other hand, lives in an area of 100 homes. So we can assume 20 of them playing and sharing the prize - £50k each. But we have paid the same stake.

Sadly they don't give the pay out percentages but I am wondering, if you are in a postcode of just one house, whether this is actually a 'beat the odds' bet?

 

Edited by Wight Flight

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I buy them at work and also with my parents.  I would think £100 a year as it's only on potental big wins and nobody watches them that closely so a lot are missed.

It's a negligible expense that gives a bit of interest and conversation.

In common with the stereotype I have been stood waiting to buy my two tickets behind a couple dressed from a charity shop's throw outs buying their special combo of half a dozen particular scratchcards and their ten or so specific lucky numbers.

For me it genuinely is a social thing and I don't buy tickets just for me because my base assumption is that they will lose.

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This doesn't surprise me, queuing up at the petrol garage I often notice about 1 in 5 people buy a scratchcard. I never have - they're fixed odds, and I don't trust them.

What's odd is that a lot of people still play the lottery despite the odds rocketing and the price doubling.

Sadly it's what most people consider the only way out of a life of living paycheck to paycheck. *it may or may not be for many, I don't know. But for me it isn't.

(The reality is that a lot of the winners wish they hadn't won. I don't want to win it, so I don't play it.)

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8 minutes ago, spunko said:

This doesn't surprise me, queuing up at the petrol garage I often notice about 1 in 5 people buy a scratchcard. I never have - they're fixed odds, and I don't trust them.

What's odd is that a lot of people still play the lottery despite the odds rocketing and the price doubling.

Sadly it's what most people consider the only way out of a life of living paycheck to paycheck.

The reality is that a lot of the winners wish they hadn't won. I don't want to win it, so I don't play it.

Bread and circuses.

No great surprise really. I thought it was about giving people a straw to clutch at when it was launched and haven't been persuaded otherwise.

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4 minutes ago, One percent said:

I won 20 quid on a scratch card this week 👍:)

Did you immediately go back into the shop and buy 20 more scratchcards like a pro? O.o

(I shouldn't mock, gambling addiction must be terrible for those who have it)

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12 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

...

The reason I found his, though, is was that I was thinking about the postcode lottery. How can this be equitable?

Postcodes vary between one and 100 homes. My postcode has as much chance of winning as any. So let's assume one in 5 people play and the prize is £1m. There are 5 houses in my postcode, so the likelihood is that I am the only player and will get the whole £1m.

...

There's a maximum prize per ticket -- works out as about 'shared between 10 properties' (ie, if there are fewer properties sharing the prize they don't see the benefits).

I don't mind the lottery so much, as it is a bit of fun for most.  That said, if you're spending several hundreds per year (and +) then you're a mug.

Postcode lottery is 'a bad lottery' in that there are barriers to 'not play' -- you sign up to £10 (and multiples thereof) per month and you can't choose to miss one play easily. 

[obviously, this is very clever from the pov of the lottery organisers]

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Make sure you check the main prizes haven’t already been won. 

https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/games/gamestore/scratch-cards

picked this out randomly: 

The total value of Prizes in the print run of Scratchcards for the Game represents 72.99% of the total face value of Scratchcards. The overall value of Prizes in the initial print run of Scratchcards for the Game is £52,679,020.

27% of 52m, almost 15m quid profit from 1 scratch card. 

Edited by honkydonkey

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1 minute ago, spunko said:

Did you immediately go back into the shop and buy 20 more scratchcards like a pro? O.o

(I shouldn't mock, gambling addiction must be terrible for those who have it)

Well, I bought a lucky dip for Saturday and went across the road to Lidl and bought some cheap wine. :)

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6 minutes ago, dgul said:

There's a maximum prize per ticket -- works out as about 'shared between 10 properties' (ie, if there are fewer properties sharing the prize they don't see the benefits).

I don't mind the lottery so much, as it is a bit of fun for most.  That said, if you're spending several hundreds per year (and +) then you're a mug.

Postcode lottery is 'a bad lottery' in that there are barriers to 'not play' -- you sign up to £10 (and multiples thereof) per month and you can't choose to miss one play easily. 

[obviously, this is very clever from the pov of the lottery organisers]

I just knew you would have the answer. So in a small postcode zone the organiser wins. Why am I not surprised.

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Just now, One percent said:

xD I take my pleasure where and when I can. 

Someone in my home town won 6 million on the lottery a few years back. I keep dreaming. 

I'm always sceptical about that - there was someone in my old hometown who won ~£1m and then claimed to have won another £3m a few years later... Then they were sent down for being a drugs baron. :CryBaby:

I had a dinner lady at primary school who won the Thunderball, or claimed to. Don't think she was dealing on the sly, but the only sign of newly acquired wealth was a brand new Ford Focus.

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Just now, spunko said:

I'm always sceptical about that - there was someone in my old hometown who won ~£1m and then claimed to have won another £3m a few years later... Then they were sent down for being a drugs baron. :CryBaby:

I had a dinner lady at primary school who won the Thunderball, or claimed to. Don't think she was dealing on the sly, but the only sign of newly acquired wealth was a brand new Ford Focus.

I think this person did actually win. It was in the papers and she moved to a big house in one of the dead posh villages. My mate is a neighbour and seems to believe it. 

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19 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

Make sure you check the main prizes haven’t already been won. 

https://www.national-lottery.co.uk/games/gamestore/scratch-cards

picked this out randomly: 

The total value of Prizes in the print run of Scratchcards for the Game represents 72.99% of the total face value of Scratchcards. The overall value of Prizes in the initial print run of Scratchcards for the Game is £52,679,020.

27% of 52m, almost 15m quid profit from 1 scratch card. 

Yes, people are buying scratch cards with “Win £100,000” or whatever written on them but the main prize/s might have already been claimed. 

I have maybe spent an average of £5 a year on lottery/scratch cards since the start of the lottery- 1997 I think?

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I know are not many crypto fans here, but I have told friends that buying crypto is like buying a lottery ticket but with much greater odds.  95% of them may disappear but if you choose any of the 5% then cha ching.

 

 

Edited by montecristo
or should that be less odds

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I don't really understand the "fun" in gambling..  perhaps being a natural realist / pessimist my normal inclination is to presume I won't win and thus don't see the point  o.O

Perhaps gamblers are natural optimists..  ?

Either way,  I knew one of the sales guys for camelot when it very first started.   He used to target the supermarkets in the poorest areas to try to get them to sign up because those would always be the ones to generate the most revenue.  Sad but true.   Taught me everything I needed to know about gambling..   if you want to live in the poorest areas..  be the type of person who plays the lottery.

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15 minutes ago, montecristo said:

I know are not many crypto fans here, but I have told friends that buying crypto is like buying a lottery ticket but with much greater odds.  95% of them may disappear but if you choose any of the 5% then cha ching.

At least with commodities and stocks etc there is "a market" and over all,  generally,  that market increases in value and/or generates wealth.

I like the idea of gambling where the odds are in your favour  :)

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