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Brexit-Deal or No deal?


sancho panza

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Genuine question.Where are we headed? I ask in this cellar because I don't really have time to read the main forum and am interested in the economic side.

More interested in the mechanics of whether they will be able toget a deal togehter not whether it's right or not.

Grateful for any perspectives.

 

Politcal betting has the following opinion from feb 5th

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/02/05/bad-news-for-theresa-may-as-orb-brings-horrible-polling-for-her/

'This latest poll from ORB is quite awful for Mrs May as she pretty much unites the country against her over her handling of Brexit, it seems only Piers Morgan is more unpopular than her handling of Brexit. I think the 5% swing in the last month is down to the history making defeat in Parliament her deal suffered.

My expectation is that both sides of the Brexit debate will be further entrenched in their positions and will not be prepared compromise, although I expect the ERG/DUP will not compromise even if the EU removes the backdrop and cedes Calais & the Republic of Ireland back to the United Kingdom.

The law means we exit the European Union next month, my estimation for quite some time is that we’d exit with no deal next month has been around the 75%-80% probability figure, I think I might have lowballed it.'

 

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Not sure what it will be called or sold to the public as, weather it's Brexit/No Deal/WTO/BINO/2nd Ref/Brexit Cancelled/Remain the show goes on and it'll be business as usual. Just a continuation of policies, regionally, nationally and globally.

As far as the pantomime I expect a last minute "deal" to ensure business carries on without the "cliff-edge" and a number of people will have saved the day both here and the EU. They will have their names forever in the history books

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I reckon No Deal, with a bit of fudge to make it look like some sort of deal.

With out getting into UK Great! European bad!!!!! The figures coming out of Europe are fucking shit. Embarrassing so for the EU and ECB. Both should be marched out and shot.

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1 hour ago, A_P said:

Not sure what it will be called or sold to the public as, weather it's Brexit/No Deal/WTO/BINO/2nd Ref/Brexit Cancelled/Remain the show goes on and it'll be business as usual. Just a continuation of policies, regionally, nationally and globally.

As far as the pantomime I expect a last minute "deal" to ensure business carries on without the "cliff-edge" and a number of people will have saved the day both here and the EU. They will have their names forever in the history books

The EU is not going to give anything. I expect Treason will give something else away at the 11th hour to ensure no disastrous "cliff edge", cough. One thing you can be be sure of though, business as usual and a nice consulting role for Treason and her cronies after it all blows over.

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I think no-deal is quite likely and sterling could briefly touch 1.20 if that happens or becomes inevitable in March, so fx traders should have plenty to cheer about.

I'm not going to put exact number on probability of that happening as MPs don't seem to be sure what it is that they really want (as opposed to being damn sure about what they don't want).

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Democorruptcy

Will Article 50 be extended?

Yes 1.31

No 3.9

We may decide we want it but all 27 EU states have to agree.

Somebody send me a PM if news breaks were are going to extend it, without prior EU consent. That Yes might drop to 1.01 to lay, if one backer thinks they have heard it first!

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5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Betfair odds:

Brexit No Deal

Yes 4.1

No 1.27

Doesn't mean they are necessarily right but you can back or lay. There are a lot of other markets around Brexit

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.153694387

On betfair you really do need to read the rules of the market you are betting on.

That market is for the following question "Will the UK have left the EU with a No Deal Brexit on 30-03-2019? "

so it is far more specific that do we leave the EU without a deal - any delay and Yes loses the bet.

 

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Democorruptcy
2 minutes ago, eek said:

On betfair you really do need to read the rules of the market you are betting on.

That market is for the following question "Will the UK have left the EU with a No Deal Brexit on 30-03-2019? "

so it is far more specific that do we leave the EU without a deal - any delay and Yes loses the bet.

 

I agree, always read their smallprint.

Edit to add : The bet I "won" the most money on was voided! Thoughi It wasn't really a smallprint issue, they said it was a technical error!

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6 hours ago, spygirl said:

I reckon No Deal, with a bit of fudge to make it look like some sort of deal.

With out getting into UK Great! European bad!!!!! The figures coming out of Europe are fucking shit. Embarrassing so for the EU and ECB. Both should be marched out and shot.

Mmm, I do find it both funny and incredible when they warn us of our downfall/financial Armageddon if we Brexit, yet they are sitting there up to their necks in the shit.:-)

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The deal will pass in parliament once the DUP are satisfied with the NI issue. The EU will agree to some kind of fudge. It's the only way that keeps the rich happy and the poor from lighting our pitchforks.

Businesses reliant on EE minimum wage Labour are going to suffer in the short term, and landlords are going to get shafted. 

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1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

The deal will pass in parliament once the DUP are satisfied with the NI issue. The EU will agree to some kind of fudge. It's the only way that keeps the rich happy and the poor from lighting our pitchforks.

Businesses reliant on EE minimum wage Labour are going to suffer in the short term, and landlords are going to get shafted. 

And the only ones I feel sorry for in that equation is the EE that will lose their jobs and go back home to earn less...the others who have exploited for profit deserve to taste their own medicine!

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9 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

And the only ones I feel sorry for in that equation is the EE that will lose their jobs and go back home to earn less...the others who have exploited for profit deserve to taste their own medicine!

The vast majority of EEs I know will stay, but as soon as the borders close to newcomers those left behind will become as belligerent and entitled as the natives were prior to 2004.

It's going to be carnage. First time someone walks into a recruitment agency, asks for more money and they can't find a replacement for him, that's it. Game on. I can't fucking wait. 

Polish, Irish, Pakistani I don't give a shit if they're willing to down tools and demand a decent standard of living for their labour then we're on the same team.

There's going to be a lot of German cars being abandoned outside the dealerships, keys on the dash, blood in the pavements outside head office. 

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1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

The deal will pass in parliament once the DUP are satisfied with the NI issue. The EU will agree to some kind of fudge. It's the only way that keeps the rich happy and the poor from lighting our pitchforks.

Businesses reliant on EE minimum wage Labour are going to suffer in the short term, and landlords are going to get shafted. 

I agree the DUP are in the driving seat as their votes hold TM hostage in Parliament. 

But... the majority of people living in NIreland voted Remain, TM’s deal including her Backstop suggestion were warmly welcomed by businesses, the Ulster Farmers Union and others, and since her Deal was vetoed by the DUP these people feel they have been “Shafted”.

Politically the Good Friday Agreement is in place to prevent a return to the Civil War- Troubles over here. Valued by a lot of people here as a political necessity and not to be thrown out by Brexit. 

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8 hours ago, Thorn said:

I agree the DUP are in the driving seat as their votes hold TM hostage in Parliament. 

But... the majority of people living in NIreland voted Remain, TM’s deal including her Backstop suggestion were warmly welcomed by businesses, the Ulster Farmers Union and others, and since her Deal was vetoed by the DUP these people feel they have been “Shafted”.

Politically the Good Friday Agreement is in place to prevent a return to the Civil War- Troubles over here. Valued by a lot of people here as a political necessity and not to be thrown out by Brexit. 

Northern Ireland needs special attention, Brexit is a minor political issue compared to the actual armed conflict NI has been stuck with. Long term the UK is probably finished and NI's politicians are going to have to work out what happens once the UK ceases to be.

The Brexit will fudge it just to get us past this stage, what happens after is another matter.

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I guess the Germans think they'll be able to say at some point "Gentlemen, it's five minutes to midnight ...", and get a deal passed. I'm not sure how that works when up against a good dose of British dithering and a set of politicians with more strings attached than a grand piano.

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13 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Mmm, I do find it both funny and incredible when they warn us of our downfall/financial Armageddon if we Brexit, yet they are sitting there up to their necks in the shit.:-)

However shit the EU mainland figures look now, theyll be even worse 10+ years later.

Having high rates of young (cough cough under 40) unemployment/inactivity is fucking isnane. All so you cna pay some cunt civil servant enough to retuire at 50.

The protection of the older, connected, public pensioned elite at the expensive of younger people will turn mainland Europe into one big Middlesborugh.

 

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5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

However shit the EU mainland figures look now, theyll be even worse 10+ years later.

Having high rates of young (cough cough under 40) unemployment/inactivity is fucking isnane. All so you cna pay some cunt civil servant enough to retuire at 50.

The protection of the older, connected, public pensioned elite at the expensive of younger people will turn mainland Europe into one big Middlesborugh.

 

Yes, reunification and joining the Euro has cost the German people massively, but due to their recent history they feel obliged to be the face of democracy, tolerance and liberty within Europe.

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2 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Yes, reunification and joining the Euro has cost the German European people massively, but due to their recent history they feel obliged to be the face of democracy, tolerance and liberty the jackbooted facist within Europe.

FIFY. :)

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2 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Yes, reunification and joining the Euro has cost the German people massively, but due to their recent history they feel obliged to be the face of democracy, tolerance and liberty within Europe.

Ill give you reunification, but that was manageable- for comparison the FOM is costinng nthe UK paying for EE TCers a lot more than Germany paid.

 

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3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Ill give you reunification, but that was manageable- for comparison the FOM is costinng nthe UK paying for EE TCers a lot more than Germany paid.

 

At the moment....and are we talking financially and/or socially?... the latter is less of an issue for the UK as we have always been a diverse nation, you cannot say the same for the Germans.

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32 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

At the moment....and are we talking financially and/or socially?... the latter is less of an issue for the UK as we have always been a diverse nation, you cannot say the same for the Germans.

Errr East Germans were German, just useless ones.

Look at the still low productivty of East Germans in (now) Big Germany.

~30 years on the differrences are still ovbious.

Now imagine how a migrants, with a otally different language and culture will perfrom.

 

Mass, unskilled migration to a a country with with skilled work and a welfare state gives you - Bradford (and Luton).

And no matter how underperformign the 1st gen is, its the 2nd gen where the trouble kicks off.

 

 

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17 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I guess the Germans think they'll be able to say at some point "Gentlemen, it's five minutes to midnight ...", and get a deal passed. I'm not sure how that works when up against a good dose of British dithering and a set of politicians with more strings attached than a grand piano.

Having worked with Germans and Austrians, they have a real blind spot over rule breaking and 'doing fuck all'.  I remember an outraged german police chief who was outraged because.....the bad guys were using false ID.  He was genuinely morally outraged that they were not following the law. xD

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I reckon if they can some how fudge a unicorn deal sterling is gonna rocket ...initially anyway.

 

I’m no trader but I reckon ‘Deal’ is not priced in to the pound at present - remembering the market traditionally sees £ as a safe haven (🤫) in tough economic times and the leading recession indicators are flashing red atm..

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