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sancho panza

Going down – asking prices slide for first time since 2011

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https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/going-down-asking-prices-slide-for-first-time-since-2011/

Average asking prices in England and Wales have slid into the red on an annual basis for the first time in 87 months.

The last time when annual house price movement turned negative was November 2011.

The average asking price is now just under £304,671, according to the website Home, or 0.2% down on this time a year ago.

The average asking price is also down by the same amount on a monthly basis, and has been falling steadily on a monthly basis since last summer – although measured annually, house price inflation has persisted.

The averages hide big differences: the largest regional monthly fall is in the south-west, at 0.6%.

In four regions prices have dropped since February last year. Home says that in these areas, price corrections are under way.

In London, asking prices are down 3.3% on 12 months ago and now stand at £514,812; in the south-east and east they are down 2.5% and 1.8% respectively; and in the south-west they are down 0.5% on an annual basis.

In the north-east, asking prices are just above stagnant. In all other remaining areas they are up – in Wales by over 6%.

The Home data – extracted from a large number of property websites and portals – also shows that houses are taking longer to sell, typically 114 days – six days longer than in February last year.

Over a quarter more properties (26.3%) had their prices cut last month than in January last year.

 

 

 

Transactions down 13% yoy in England

Down 12% in Wales.

Down 15% in Northern Ireland

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/transactions-down-as-annual-house-price-growth-slows/

Transactions took a dive, the latest data shows.

According to the ONS and Land Registry, sales in October – the most recent month for which there are statistics – fell in England to 66,599, compared with 77,047 the previous October.

Sales were also down in Wales, from 4,471 to 3,911, but static in Scotland at just over 9,000.

In Northern Ireland, sales in the last quarter of last year fell to 5,736 compared with 6,784.

The ONS also reports that in December, the average UK price was £230,776, up 2.5% over the year, and 0.2% measured monthly.

It is the lowest rate of annual house price growth since July 2013.

The ONS also reported on lettings, saying that private rents rose by 1% between January last year and last month.

In England, rent prices increased 1.1%. Excluding London, they were up 1.5%.

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7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/transactions-down-as-annual-house-price-growth-slows/

Transactions took a dive, the latest data shows.

According to the ONS and Land Registry, sales in October – the most recent month for which there are statistics – fell in England to 66,599, compared with 77,047 the previous October.

 

I used to mention this from time to time on the other site, without getting much response, but you can't take the previous year's comparative from the latest data set. To be comparable, you have to take the estimate made at same point last year. Apparently even property magazines don't generally understand this, and the land registry themselves have previously used this misleading comparison.

However, it seems at least the land registry themselves have worked it out.

Quote

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for October 2017 to the provisional estimate for October 2018, volume transactions increased by 4.7% in England, 1.9% in Scotland, 2.8% in Wales and 4.3% in Northern Ireland.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2017

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39 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

I used to mention this from time to time on the other site, without getting much response, but you can't take the previous year's comparative from the latest data set. To be comparable, you have to take the estimate made at same point last year. Apparently even property magazines don't generally understand this, and the land registry themselves have previously used this misleading comparison.

However, it seems at least the land registry themselves have worked it out.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2018

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2017/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2017

There's no source for the data in the PIE report.They're clearly using a different data source than the transactions one to the land reg one you're quoting

I've had a quick read and can't find the quote you reference.

The data is proviosnal for Oct until this month's release when they'll go firm with the Oct figure.But like I said,PIE are using a different data set for their report.Your land reg data is asying oct 18 (provisinal) versus oct 17 is 91k and 91k.So PIE must beusing some other data source.

Possibly the following.I presume they're doing a snapshot in time,not seasoanlly adjusted.I jsut quoted their report and didn't do any back ground.

Here to learn .Particualrly keen to ascertain the soruce of their data

https://data.gov.uk/dataset/7d866093-2af5-4076-896a-2d19ca2708bb/hm-land-registry-monthly-property-transaction-data

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38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

There's no source for the data in the PIE report.They're clearly using a different data source than the transactions one to the land reg one you're quoting

I've had a quick read and can't find the quote you reference.

I can't open the actual PIE page for some reason, but the transaction numbers you quote are the same as in the land reg page, the table in section 4.1

 

I took the quote from section 4.2

 

The land reg data is still incomplete at 3 months. They estimate it as being 85% complete

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22 hours ago, steppensheep said:

I can't open the actual PIE page for some reason, but the transaction numbers you quote are the same as in the land reg page, the table in section 4.1

 

I took the quote from section 4.2

 

The land reg data is still incomplete at 3 months. They estimate it as being 85% complete

I read a learned poster on ToS-Freetrader I think- saying  it ws something like 60% first month,then 70/80.Apparently,some get filed at 6 months +.

Ref the article,that means the October figures would be firm although the transactions data is still posted as provisional.

I'd be interest to udnerstand the difference bettween the sales voluem figures and the transactions data

 

Interesting to se the revisions ection roughly hit that note re FT

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-the-uk-house-price-index/about-the-uk-house-price-index#monthly-revision

'For example, our provisional (first) estimate for a particular month is calculated on around 40% of the transactions that will ultimately get registered with the second and third estimates calculated based on around 80% and 85% of the final registered transactions. '

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I read a learned poster on ToS-Freetrader ...

...

Ref the article,that means the October figures would be firm although the transactions data is still posted as provisional.

I'd be interest to udnerstand the difference bettween the sales voluem figures and the transactions data

 

Freetrader seems not to have posted for a couple of years.

...

I believe the 3 month point at which 85% of the sales for a particular month have been registered with the Land registry is the point at which the data is "firm" enough to be used to calculate the average prices.

 

In general the actual sales volume for a month will be around 1/0.85 times the 3 month recorded transaction figure, but I'm not really sure what specific figures you are referring to.

 

Off topic, but I don'treally know why the land registry base their stats on the "month sold" rather than "month registered" as it would provide much simpler and timlier data sets.  Possibly the "month sold" numbers would be statistically "purer" but I can't imagine it makes any significant difference.

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21 hours ago, steppensheep said:

Freetrader seems not to have posted for a couple of years.

...

I believe the 3 month point at which 85% of the sales for a particular month have been registered with the Land registry is the point at which the data is "firm" enough to be used to calculate the average prices.

 

In general the actual sales volume for a month will be around 1/0.85 times the 3 month recorded transaction figure, but I'm not really sure what specific figures you are referring to.

 

Off topic, but I don'treally know why the land registry base their stats on the "month sold" rather than "month registered" as it would provide much simpler and timlier data sets.  Possibly the "month sold" numbers would be statistically "purer" but I can't imagine it makes any significant difference.

The sales being registered in the monht sold makes sense to me given importance of price volume data ge nerally.

 

Here quotes transactions above £40k as 90k provisional for England for Oct 18

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/771859/UK_Tables_Jan_2019__cir_.pdf

Then 4.1

4.1 Sales volumes

Number of sales volumes by country

Country October 2018 October 2017
England 66,599 77,047
Northern Ireland (Quarter 4 - 2018) 5,736 6,784
Scotland 9,003 9,047
Wales 3,911 4,471

 

 

8 hours ago, spunko said:

Absolutely,can't wait until Sydney is in full on crash mode.

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