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How does Buy to Let END!


macca

What happens when generation rent retire with tiny pensions and massive rent bills!  

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17 hours ago, leonardratso said:

yeah hes kinda twitchy after 15 minutes, like he needs another line or whisky or something.

The comments are mainly landlords complaining about bein 'dun over' by the bastards, but theres a hardcore of interjecting 'you parasitical scum are finished' interlopers piping up every now and then.

I get the feeling the landlords commenting seem to know it, and they seem to know they are scum as well, despite protesting too much that they arent, might be just me and i might biased but it certainly had that intangible vibe about it.

Not posting it, but Blanduncersight dud hisher Death if btl when  s24 was announced, 7 years ago.

There was a year, followed by a yearly cranking of handle.

Any btler could have put the numbers in excel and worked out theyd be fucked.

Then there was the simple - If ukgov introduce thus, will other changes be announced?

Loads of gormless btl fuckwits

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  • 4 weeks later...

More tales from FBs best forum -

https://www.facebook.com/groups/landlordsforum

(From TOS) -

Can I run something past you guys please? Not sure what I’m hoping your going to advise but I need to know if your all having the same issues and what your all doing!
I have been a landlord since 1999 and have a portfolio of 46 properties in the north west
This is just an example -
Rent - £6240 (£520 pcm)
Outgoings
Maintenance. £500 (estimated but just spent £4k on new kitchen/ flooring)
Agents fees £750
Gas and electric testes £150
Mortgage IO £2200
Insurance £150
Tax £2000
Accountancy £150
Total Annual Costs £6200
Profit after tax £240 per year!
X 46 = £11,040
I do have some mortgages paid off so it’s a bit better than this but when rates go up again!!!
Suggestions apart from sell up? I’ve got nearly 1.25 mil in equity sitting there!
 

Id love to know the debt,

But a 11k 'profit' from 46 x 50K? 100k? 150k? house portfolio...

 

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Frank Hovis
34 minutes ago, spygirl said:

More tales from FBs best forum -

https://www.facebook.com/groups/landlordsforum

(From TOS) -

Can I run something past you guys please? Not sure what I’m hoping your going to advise but I need to know if your all having the same issues and what your all doing!
I have been a landlord since 1999 and have a portfolio of 46 properties in the north west
This is just an example -
Rent - £6240 (£520 pcm)
Outgoings
Maintenance. £500 (estimated but just spent £4k on new kitchen/ flooring)
Agents fees £750
Gas and electric testes £150
Mortgage IO £2200
Insurance £150
Tax £2000
Accountancy £150
Total Annual Costs £6200
Profit after tax £240 per year!
X 46 = £11,040
I do have some mortgages paid off so it’s a bit better than this but when rates go up again!!!
Suggestions apart from sell up? I’ve got nearly 1.25 mil in equity sitting there!
 

Id love to know the debt,

But a 11k 'profit' from 46 x 50K? 100k? 150k? house portfolio...

 

 

Wow.

If someone said they owned 46 houses I would be thinking:

harry1.jpg

 

But £11,040 is a dreadful return upon £1.25m of equity - less than 0.9% and better off leaving it in the building society.

All credit to him for running the sums and being honest but surely he can recognise quite how poor that is as an investment and come out of it.

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4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Wow.

If someone said they owned 46 houses I would be thinking:

harry1.jpg

 

But £11,040 is a dreadful return upon £1.25m of equity - less than 0.9% and better off leaving it in the building society.

All credit to him for running the sums and being honest but surely he can recognise quite how poor that is as an investment and come out of it.

Well theres th debt too, which will soon undermine his position.

Usual 'since ... 1999' Id bet his portfolio only expanded massive  from ~2005ish.

Shows how fucked everything is when you realise that, of the ~23 years hes been a LL,

United Kingdom Interest Rate

Only a few years have had IR going up.

The equity assumes that someone will buy those houses at prices more than he paid for them. They probably wont.

Round me, the portfolio IO BTL houses are selling at 2002  prices i.e. before IO BTL doubled the prices.

Typically, they are are looking at at 30k/40k cash loss per house.

 

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sleepwello'nights
On 28/05/2021 at 15:55, Wight Flight said:

 

Of course council housing might be the correct answer, but we all know that what I would call normal people have absolutely sod all chance of getting one of them even if they built hundreds of thousands of them.

 

 

 

Have you seen the campaign started by ITV on the scandal of poorly maintained housing. Cases where the walls are black with mould, where holes in the roof allowing water ingress are not repaired, etc.

All the properties reported on are owned by councils or housing associations. 

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I don't think a lot do.

Besides equity growth is still a thing.... would someone else starting a job in 1999 have amassed £1.25m by now? Probably not unless you were talented enough to get to the top, which statistically most are not.

However some of the assumptions seem light going forward, £500 maintenance these days implies very few things going wrong - as houses get older more things are likely to break. Is he never going to fit any other new kitchen, bathrooms?

£1.25m equity might also be illusory if he puts all his properties up at once, or if interest rates go up again, CGT also significant.

Putting an extra £25 p/m on rent would be £13k profit, but some may be swallowed by voids and increase in bad debt. Could imagine a lot of min wage/non wage earners as tenants (otherwise they would have bought if prices were £100k)

I dunno if he could be squeezed out by the banks? A normal stipulation is that the rent covers the mortgage but as you can see here you could have a case where it does but he is still making a massive loss.

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56 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Maintenance. £500 (estimated but just spent £4k on new kitchen/ flooring)

 

:D

I think my maintenance is £500 a year per property, despite just having splashed out £4K on a (I assume) single property.

Either the rest of his shitboxes are about to fall down or he's massively underestimating his maintenance costs. I'll bet in reality they aren't making any money at all. Certainly that £4K expense has just wiped out over 16 years of "profits" from that one house.

Only somebody who was completely innumerate would think this sensible.

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11 hours ago, Boon said:

However some of the assumptions seem light going forward, £500 maintenance these days implies very few things going wrong - as houses get older more things are likely to break. Is he never going to fit any other new kitchen, bathrooms?

Very likely that most of those 46 houses are still running with the same fitted kitchen and bathroom they had when this landlord bought them 2 decades ago - and likely they were not new then either. No doubt this BTLer is not factoring the large and growing maintenance backlog into their equity calculation.

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On 19/07/2022 at 08:01, spygirl said:

More tales from FBs best forum -

https://www.facebook.com/groups/landlordsforum

(From TOS) -

Can I run something past you guys please? Not sure what I’m hoping your going to advise but I need to know if your all having the same issues and what your all doing!
I have been a landlord since 1999 and have a portfolio of 46 properties in the north west
This is just an example -
Rent - £6240 (£520 pcm)
Outgoings
Maintenance. £500 (estimated but just spent £4k on new kitchen/ flooring)
Agents fees £750
Gas and electric testes £150
Mortgage IO £2200
Insurance £150
Tax £2000
Accountancy £150
Total Annual Costs £6200
Profit after tax £240 per year!
X 46 = £11,040
I do have some mortgages paid off so it’s a bit better than this but when rates go up again!!!
Suggestions apart from sell up? I’ve got nearly 1.25 mil in equity sitting there!
 

Id love to know the debt,

But a 11k 'profit' from 46 x 50K? 100k? 150k? house portfolio...

 

So he's gambling on HPI and barely keeping his head above water with running costs inc the interest on the mortgage.

To be fair if he bought most of the houses before say 15 years ago they're bound to be worth a fair bit more now, but selling 46 houses is going to be a massive pain in the arse and very, very time consuming.

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

So he's gambling on HPI and barely keeping his head above water with running costs inc the interest on the mortgage.

To be fair if he bought most of the houses before say 15 years ago they're bound to be worth a fair bit more now, but selling 46 houses is going to be a massive pain in the arse and very, very time consuming.

Not in the NW.

Hes kidding himself.

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The Grey Man

Not sure if this has been posted.

Old Kent based Fergie and Judith have been selling up this last two years.

Recent court orders fear they will not cough up for fines.

They will have fat pockets in their shrouds.

No kids.

He even represents himself legally. 

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/ashford/news/multi-millionaire-pleaded-poverty-to-avoid-legal-costs-268721/

 

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53 minutes ago, spygirl said:

No.

Really? Has the great HPI of the last 20 years just bypassed that little corner of England?

Post an example or two of what a nice house costs there if you can.

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This is v v common in the North - 

Teesside's metal thieves named as area revealed as hotspot for the crime

Copper piping and electrical wiring are among the items targeted by light-fingered crooks

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/teessides-metal-thieves-named-area-24474865

Teesside Live has reported on a number of convictions of people caught stealing materials. In November last year, two thieves were caught red-handed after stripping a Middlesbrough house of all its copper piping and electrical wires.

 

James Brown, 29 and Ian Currie, 37, avoided immediate prison sentences after descending on the Grangetown house. Currie told an officer “come on boss, we were only nicking a bit of copper" and Brown said he was just "doing a bit of scrap."

 

Is this the bloke whose face melted when he wired himself to the grid by accident?...I feel sorry for him.Can't be easy having to walk around with a face like that for the rest of your life.

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orb3 HRS AGO

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No the clown that melted is riding around on a peddle bike thinking he is invincible l almost knocked him off it yesterday in boro thinking he owns the road

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On 19/07/2022 at 17:01, spygirl said:

More tales from FBs best forum -

https://www.facebook.com/groups/landlordsforum

(From TOS) -

Can I run something past you guys please? Not sure what I’m hoping your going to advise but I need to know if your all having the same issues and what your all doing!
I have been a landlord since 1999 and have a portfolio of 46 properties in the north west
This is just an example -
Rent - £6240 (£520 pcm)
Outgoings
Maintenance. £500 (estimated but just spent £4k on new kitchen/ flooring)
Agents fees £750
Gas and electric testes £150
Mortgage IO £2200
Insurance £150
Tax £2000
Accountancy £150
Total Annual Costs £6200
Profit after tax £240 per year!
X 46 = £11,040
I do have some mortgages paid off so it’s a bit better than this but when rates go up again!!!
Suggestions apart from sell up? I’ve got nearly 1.25 mil in equity sitting there!
 

Id love to know the debt,

But a 11k 'profit' from 46 x 50K? 100k? 150k? house portfolio...

 

£1.25m equity from nearly 50 NW properties and average rent of £500pcm suggests lots of sub £100K flats in places like Wigan, Preston, Blackburn and Bolton. Most will have been bought as new builds, so coming up to circa 20 years old, but with the same cheap kitchens and bathrooms fitted during construction.

I bought one of these flats in the NW, about 10 miles from Manchester, in 2010 from a skint BTLer caught with pants down during the GFC. He paid £120K for it as a new build in 2006 and sold it for under £60K cash four years later. Loads of examples of flats in NW ex mill and coal mining towns built during the Blair era were selling at 50%+ losses by 2012. Some are still selling at losses in 2022. 

I doubt we'll see falls of that magnitude again, but these are the sort of low to middle end rental properties in the NW that will see noticeable falls if we have a proper recession. 

Edited by tank
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3 minutes ago, tank said:

£1.25m equity from nearly 50 NW properties and average rent of £500pcm suggests lots of sub £100K flats in places like Wigan, Preston, Blackburn and Bolton. Most will have been bought as new builds, so coming up to circa 20 years old, but with the same cheap kitchens and bathrooms fitted during construction.

I bought one of these flats in the NW, about 10 miles from Manchester, in 2010 from a skint BTLer caught with pants down during the GFC. He paid £120K for it as a new build in 2006 and sold it for under £60K cash four years later. Loads of examples of flats in NW ex mill and coal mining towns built during the Blair era were selling at 50%+ losses by 2012. Some are still selling at losses in 2022. 

I doubt we'll see falls of that magnitude again, but these are the sort of low to middle end rental properties in the NW that will see noticeable falls if we have a proper recession. 

The equity is just his guestimate.

Whats at play her is - How much debt does he have,

What Id guess will happen is that his BTL start going cash negative v quickly, end up losing ~200/m. Each.

Then the repo and bank distress sale start.

The falls in 2008 are going to be dwarfed for BTL portfolios going bust.

 

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44 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The equity is just his guestimate.

Whats at play her is - How much debt does he have.

46 properties averaging 500pcm in the NW = ~£80,000 per property.  ~£3.5m. His debt to equity ratio is likely to be 4:1 at best, so he's very exposed.  

The fact he's on Facebook complaining to other landlords about having to fit a new kitchen suggests that this is a new thing for him. He's probably avoided DSS punters to this point but, unless he spends a small fortune putting in new kitchens and bathrooms, he'll have no choice but to go down that route. 

My guess is he bought a lot of his properties as new builds during the Blair and Broon era and has simply rented them out without a thought about refurbishment. 

Edited by tank
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Wight Flight
5 hours ago, spygirl said:

The equity is just his guestimate.

Whats at play her is - How much debt does he have,

What Id guess will happen is that his BTL start going cash negative v quickly, end up losing ~200/m. Each.

Then the repo and bank distress sale start.

The falls in 2008 are going to be dwarfed for BTL portfolios going bust.

 

Equity is great on a going concern basis.

It disappears faster than a gin bottle at @One percent in a firesale situation.

Edited by Wight Flight
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6 hours ago, tank said:

46 properties averaging 500pcm in the NW = ~£80,000 per property.  ~£3.5m. His debt to equity ratio is likely to be 4:1 at best, so he's very exposed.  

The fact he's on Facebook complaining to other landlords about having to fit a new kitchen suggests that this is a new thing for him. He's probably avoided DSS punters to this point but, unless he spends a small fortune putting in new kitchens and bathrooms, he'll have no choice but to go down that route. 

My guess is he bought a lot of his properties as new builds during the Blair and Broon era and has simply rented them out without a thought about refurbishment. 

It is bizarre that this BTLer owns 92 kitchens/bathrooms and yet spending a few £k to renovate just one of them is apparently some special outlay for them. Should be redoing 5-10 a year to keep the stock in reasonable condition.

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With a crooked smile
On 20/07/2022 at 21:32, JoeDavola said:

So prices in the NW aren't up in ££'s since 2005?

Off course they have shit loads. Manchester has had documentaries on TV about it. 

House prices in Manchester have gone up more than any other UK city in the last 20 years

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/house-prices-manchester-gone-up-24048111

And as I posted elsewhere the last houses local to me that sold 20  odd years ago and again recently. 

 

Screenshot_20220723-120045_Chrome.jpg

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Don Coglione
12 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

Off course they have shit loads. Manchester has had documentaries on TV about it. 

House prices in Manchester have gone up more than any other UK city in the last 20 years

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/house-prices-manchester-gone-up-24048111

And as I posted elsewhere the last houses local to me that sold 20  odd years ago and again recently. 

 

Screenshot_20220723-120045_Chrome.jpg

Yep. The house I bought in Chorlton in 1992 for £54,000 (and sold in 1997 for £60,000) would now go for £400k, maybe more.

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