How does Buy to Let END!

[spygirl]

15 minutes ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

Hope you're right.  I've kind of given up hope on it really, it's almost wish fulfilment for me thinking that it will happen.

I've always thought in lump sums, rather than monthly costs.  With interest rates where they are even though £100K is lot of money, the £200 a month it takes to service the interest on the debt is negligible.

With the way the last 10 years have gone I've held myself back thinking in terms of lump sums rather than monthly costs.

Do you really see drops of over 20/30%?

How about thinking in lump sum terms rather than monthly costs. At some point do we have to say there's been a paradigm shift and we're so far down this road thinking it will change is just too far fetched?

 

Yes.

London i seeing those falls now. And they will continue.

In the North, price have been flat for ~15 years. Its amazing looking at the LR data.

And the number of transaction are waaay down. Towns must be being overwhelmed by probates.

Theres no local buyers as 50%+ are on TCs, so cannot get a mortgage.

MMR is hammering people hwo do have a job - or at least cramping the sellers prices.

[spygirl]

22 minutes ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

Hope you're right.  I've kind of given up hope on it really, it's almost wish fulfilment for me thinking that it will happen.

I've always thought in lump sums, rather than monthly costs.  With interest rates where they are even though £100K is lot of money, the £200 a month it takes to service the interest on the debt is negligible.

With the way the last 10 years have gone I've held myself back thinking in terms of lump sums rather than monthly costs.

Do you really see drops of over 20/30%?

How about thinking in lump sum terms rather than monthly costs. At some point do we have to say there's been a paradigm shift and we're so far down this road thinking it will change is just too far fetched?

 

OO cannot get  IO mortgages.

Nothing stays still.

A 60uo 10 years ago is now 70. (~30% chance of dying)

A 70yo is now 80 (~50% chance of dying)

A 80yo is 90 (~70% chance of dying)

A 90yo is now 100 (95% chance of dying).

BTL has screwed up the housign ladder - as much as it exists - so much that theres a ~20 year gap of home owners to sell and move along.

 

 

[Napoleon Dynamite]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Yes.

London i seeing those falls now. And they will continue.

In the North, price have been flat for ~15 years. Its amazing looking at the LR data.

And the number of transaction are waaay down. Towns must be being overwhelmed by probates.

Theres no local buyers as 50%+ are on TCs, so cannot get a mortgage.

MMR is hammering people hwo do have a job - or at least cramping the sellers prices.

MMR's a curious one, all it's done is hold people back (in retrospect).  The powers that be need to keep the credit taps on, but they don't want too much being sucked into the residential mortgage market.

Also has the distorting effect that a couple could be £120K under for Student Debt by the time they're 21, without being audited for the means to pay it back.  Yet an employed couple that didn't have that debt would be refused a £200K mortgage, even though the cost of the interest on the mortgage is lower.

A big one for me is BoMaD, if that were to stop tomorrow, prices would plummnet.  Not sure how long it will take to dry up though.

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, Tdog said:

MMR has led to the growth of 30 and 35 year mortgages.

I remember back in the day on HPC when MMR was going to be responsible for the impending crash, but prices took off just after it came in.

S24 was next and prices continued to rise from when it was announced.

Nope.

MMR day saw the number of mortgages sold drop notably.

You can see the day pretty much i nthe LR data.

 

 

[A_P]

[spygirl]

Lets say i was ceo of nationwide, or another daft building society tgat had been chzasing io btl.

Id be putting up the btl svr to 10% now. Milk some money while the LLs are still solvent.

[JoeDavola]

I know it's only three examples; but I know of three flats in Belfast city centre that have just been put on the market after being owned by their respective BTL-ers for at least 10 years each.

Funny that they're all wanting out of the BTL game now; there isn't that many flats in Belfast city centre so I'm guessing they're calling peak.

Edited September 7, 2019 by JoeDavola

[Chewing Grass]

The graph above is also interesting as it hides the percentage of traditional 25 year mortgages at around 40%.

[A_P]

5 minutes ago, Tdog said:

SO mortgages with a lifespan of 30 years or more have almost doubled since MMR.

More impotent regulation.

i would love to see the data for new mortgages broken down by age. I wouldn't be at all surprised that the vast majority of FTBers are now taking mortgages of at least 30 years. People in their 20s will be on 35 years. imo it nicely ties in with the subcription and PCP model. Can i afford X a month.

Ill see if the BOE have updated the graph as well. Doubtful though as Im sure that one time was enough before they swept it under the carpet 

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, A_P said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised that the vast majority of FTBers are now taking mortgages of at least 30 years. People in their 20s will be on 35 years.

This is what I'm hearing anecdotally.

It's astonishing how quickly 35 year mortgages have become accept as 'the norm' by young people.

[A_P]

The chart hasn't been updated. Very little mortgage commentary in their latest Financial Stability report. FCA don't publish mortgage term data in their detail mortgage lending stats, funnily enough. I guess it's not of interest to anyone 

[JoeDavola]

Just now, A_P said:

The chart hasn't been updated. Very little mortgage commentary in their latest Financial Stability report. FCA don't publish mortgage term data in their detail mortgage lending stats, funnily enough. I guess it's not of interest to anyone 

You still house hunting?

[A_P]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

You still house hunting?

No mate. Bought a house and living in it for my sins 

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, A_P said:

No mate. Bought a house and living in it for my sins 

Ya kept that quiet! Congratulations!

Did you end up in Belfast or further afield?

Edited September 8, 2019 by JoeDavola

[A_P]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

Ya kept that quiet! Congratulations!

I did post in one thread about our mortgage journey or lack of it for that matter. 

Thanks but not warranted mate. It's been a funny old thing mentally. A few people were asking if I was excited. I was so emotionally detached from the process that it didn't even feel like we were buying for the most part. It was difficult to express anything more than a "yeah" (while thinking its just a house). It wasn't until after we got the keys and moved in two weeks later the stress and realisation finally kicked in .

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, A_P said:

i would love to see the data for new mortgages broken down by age. I wouldn't be at all surprised that the vast majority of FTBers are now taking mortgages of at least 30 years. People in their 20s will be on 35 years. imo it nicely ties in with the subcription and PCP model. Can i afford X a month.

Ill see if the BOE have updated the graph as well. Doubtful though as Im sure that one time was enough before they swept it under the carpet 

Its a very dangerous game for the banks.

Most sensible banks i.e. hsbc want the mortgage paid off before SRA

The greater the term, the more likely the borrower will default.

The likesof MMR, which is a major move i nthe right direction, and  Basel3, introduce dynamic risk weighting.

If a high percentage of 30+ mortgagees turn tutrle then the RWA will be increased and probably be banned.

Most UK banks are in deep shit. Their safe mortgages are being paid off at a faster rate than new ones, no matter how risky, are going on the book.

 

 

 

[A_P]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

Its a very dangerous game for the banks.

Most sensible banks i.e. hsbc want the mortgage paid off before SRA

The greater the term, the more likely the borrower will default.

The likesof MMR, which is a major move i nthe right direction, and  Basel3, introduce dynamic risk weighting.

If a high percentage of 30+ mortgagees turn tutrle then the RWA will be increased and probably be banned.

Most UK banks are in deep shit. Their safe mortgages are being paid off at a faster rate than new ones, no matter how risky, are going on the book.

 

 

 

Yet they're happy to accept the new SRA as a planned retirement date without hesitation...

The longer term the more interest they get paid....idiot banks, stupid CEOs.... As someone would say

 

Just now, A_P said:

Most UK banks are in deep shit. Their safe mortgages are being paid off at a faster rate than new ones, no matter how risky, are going on the book.

Any data to back that up?

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, A_P said:

Yet they're happy to accept the new SRA as a planned retirement date without hesitation...

The longer term the more interest they get paid....idiot banks, stupid CEOs.... As someone would say

 

Any data to back that up?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

Set to Max.

Simple count em in, count em out.

2019-25 = 1992. ~50% of the mortgages bieng sold.

Also, the knockon on effect of BTL takign out 15-20 years of FTB is going to have huge knock back too.

All this and more will fall on London N South as that where the jobs were created for this massive credit bubble , which has now snapped back.

[A_P]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

Set to Max.

Simple count em in, count em out.

2019-25 = 1992. ~50% of the mortgages bieng sold.

Also, the knockon on effect of BTL takign out 15-20 years of FTB is going to have huge knock back too.

All this and more will fall on London N South as that where the jobs were created for this massive credit bubble , which has now snapped back.

You're comparing apples to oranges. Post 2007 is a different ball game. What is the breakdown of those mortgage approvals? How many liar loans/self certs BTL's are in that? What is the average mortgage value pre 1992 say versus post 1997? Let alone 2012? 

Still not sure what that link has to do with your assertion that the banks safe loans are being replenished with risky loans, when it seems it might be the other way round?

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, A_P said:

You're comparing apples to oranges. Post 2007 is a different ball game. What is the breakdown of those mortgage approvals? How many liar loans/self certs BTL's are in that? What is the average mortgage value pre 1992 say versus post 1997? Let alone 2012? 

Still not sure what that link has to do with your assertion that the banks safe loans are being replenished with risky loans, when it seems it might be the other way round?

Im comparing wi the only data Ive got.

Up to 20010ish, you had a large number of mortgages begin sold.

Post MMR, the numbers bieing sold is ~half.

What Im seeing differs on the area.

In the South theres been a notable drop in earnings/employment by the people who would buy houses.

In the North, theres just not the numbers of house buyers, combination of TCs being an easier option and the vast number of BTLs in certain areas.

Both Southern OO and Northern BTL will have to sell into a very small number of buyers.

 

[A_P]

8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Im comparing wi the only data Ive got.

Up to 20010ish, you had a large number of mortgages begin sold.

Post MMR, the numbers bieing sold is ~half.

What Im seeing differs on the area.

In the South theres been a notable drop in earnings/employment by the people who would buy houses.

In the North, theres just not the numbers of house buyers, combination of TCs being an easier option and the vast number of BTLs in certain areas.

Both Southern OO and Northern BTL will have to sell into a very small number of buyers.

 

Probably best not to base all your opinions on that data. Do you even look at your own link while writing the rubbish you do? 

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, A_P said:

Probably best not to base all your opinions on that data. Do you even look at your own link while writing the rubbish you do? 

Balls.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=scarborough&all=1

All the way down.

You can see sales go nuts up to 07, then drop off.

The volume of houses sold in the 10 years after 2008 is about half the rate sold in the previous 10 years.

And thats with a huge amount of BTL, 90% of which will is not viable now.

[A_P]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Balls.

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=scarborough&all=1

All the way down.

You can see sales go nuts up to 07, then drop off.

The volume of houses sold in the 10 years after 2008 is about half the rate sold in the previous 10 years.

And thats with a huge amount of BTL, 90% of which will is not viable now.

You're all over the place as per usual in your quest to be right. Please stop replying to me 

[One percent]

I was talking to a mate in London the other day. Apparently her son has a btl in Manchester. 

[spygirl]

Paywall.

But the bit you can read tells you everything.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/buy-to-let/landlords-urged-sell-buy-to-let-properties-now-tax-bills-soar/amp/

Bear in mind 80% of btl ll have not paid or aware of the initial few years changes.

People io btling on a yield less than 12% are fucked.