How does Buy to Let END!

[Iamcynical]

32 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

They already have; from the link I pasted, every single flat that has been on-sold went for less than the first "owners" paid in 2003/4.

Basingstoke should be a great place, indeed it was until the 1970s, when people deemed too ugly to live in London were kicked out and re-housed (see also Bracknell, Farnborough, Andover etc). It is very well situated, with excellent road and rail links, it serves a very wealthy semi-rural community within, say, a ten mile radius.

Instead, it is shit.

I know.  They seem to be the shit new build flats that have dropped all over the country.  I'm talking more of well built older houses that see noticeable falls. 

[spygirl]

39 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

They already have; from the link I pasted, every single flat that has been on-sold went for less than the first "owners" paid in 2003/4.

Basingstoke should be a great place, indeed it was until the 1970s, when people deemed too ugly to live in London were kicked out and re-housed (see also Bracknell, Farnborough, Andover etc). It is very well situated, with excellent road and rail links, it serves a very wealthy semi-rural community within, say, a ten mile radius.

Instead, it is shit.

In 1961 it was decided to make Basingstoke an overspill town for London and a new plan was drawn up for the town. It was made public in 1962. The plan called for 37,000 people to be moved from London to Basingstoke. The population of the town would rise from 16,000 in 1961 to 75,000 by 1981. Several estates of new houses, some of them council and some of them private were built around the outskirts of Basingstoke. Houses were built at Winklebury and Popley. A council estate was built at Buckskin. Private houses were built at Kempshott.

By 1970 the population of Basingstoke had risen to 47,000. In the late 1960s and early 1970s houses were built at Riverdene. In the 1970s Brighton Hill, a private estate, was built. Furthermore, some private and some council houses were built at Black Dam on the site of Basingstoke Common. In the 1980s Chineham became built up.

Ive never set foot outside the railway station, bar the times the y put buses on when theres problems.

Ive never been to any slum clearance town thats turned into nothing more than a slum 20 odd years later,w hen the new families kids grow up and just turn into feral scum, roaming the town, destroying stuff.

 

 

 

 

[eek]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

There is a counter argument here.

Maybe landlords won't be able to sell?

I would be very surprised if banks don't offer some assistance to landlords over the next few months. But I think property values will drop 25% in the short term.

Many landlords will go bust if they sell at that price, and they will also believe that it is a temporary blip as property values always go up.

They may hiss and spit a lot but I am not sure they will sell off in droves.

 

That's not a counter argument - it's just the intermediate stage.

Eventually any landlord with mortgages will have to either find the money to pay it the loans or accept losing their main home and bankruptcy.

[Option5]

Presumably some of the house price levels will be driven by estate agents. They need houses to sell to make a living. If people hold tight they go bust.

I imagine a few people who want/need to sell (probate, relocation for work, bust BTL etc) will be hearing about the "market" and being advised to sell for lower values.

3% of £350,000 cash is better that 3% of £450,000 on a Rightmove advert.

[Don Coglione]

1 minute ago, Option5 said:

Presumably some of the house price levels will be driven by estate agents. They need houses to sell to make a living. If people hold tight they go bust.

I imagine a few people who want/need to sell (probate, relocation for work, bust BTL etc) will be hearing about the "market" and being advised to sell for lower values.

3% of £350,000 cash is better that 3% of £450,000 on a Rightmove advert.

3%?! Do people pay that?

If so, fuck me.

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, eek said:

That's not a counter argument - it's just the intermediate stage.

Eventually any landlord with mortgages will have to either find the money to pay it the loans or accept losing their main home and bankruptcy.

Their dilemma:

1   Sell at a loss

2.  Go bankrupt quickly through voids.

3.  Go bankrupt slowly by lowering rents.

3. Lowers the rental values for the area so affects all the other landlords over time.

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

3%?! Do people pay that?

If so, fuck me.

Probably not, I was just making up numbers to make the point.

Although with mortgage, insurance and conveyancing kickbacks maybe.

[DownwardSpiral]

I dodged a bullet when I worked in Basingstoke a few years back - I moved over from Wales and was looking for a place to rent there. I was begrudgingly going to accept to rent a place in a rather quiet part of Blazingstoke (flat was bog standard) but the estate agent wanted (with deposit etc) circa £2200 upfront. Coming from Wales I thought fuck that - if I am going to pay that sort of cash I’ll take Winchester. Made some good friends in a house share there (very lucky) which was done without an estate agent (one of those online housemate finders) so no fees. Met my partner who I now live with back in Wales. Winchester is going to get slaughtered for different reasons to Basingstoke.
 

Winchester is relatively nice but I wouldn’t say it is an outstanding place to be. The house prices there, in places like Weeke, Harestock, Badger Farm etc cannot be justified and will fall massively I think. Basingstoke, as somebody said earlier, is soulless. Working there for a year was beyond depressing and I was desperate to leave. The sinkhole estates rammed with BTL and HMO in places like Popley are going to be fascinating to watch over the coming years. There is *nothing* about B’Stoke that makes it worth living there. It is already nearly £10 just to get to Winchester on the train. Reading is about £6.50 from memory but then why would you want to go there particularly?

But then train ticket prices are another thing that I think are going to be interesting to track over the next couple of years...once inflation starts to bite how do they justify say 7% increases in fares particularly when people are going to be working from home a lot more from now on?

Edited April 20, 2020 by DownwardSpiral

[Don Coglione]

19 minutes ago, DownwardSpiral said:

I dodged a bullet when I worked in Basingstoke a few years back - I moved over from Wales and was looking for a place to rent there. I was begrudgingly going to accept to rent a place in a rather quiet part of Blazingstoke (flat was bog standard) but the estate agent wanted (with deposit etc) circa £2200 upfront. Coming from Wales I thought fuck that - if I am going to pay that sort of cash I’ll take Winchester. Made some good friends in a house share there (very lucky) which was done without an estate agent (one of those online housemate finders) so no fees. Met my partner who I now live with back in Wales. Winchester is going to get slaughtered for different reasons to Basingstoke.
 

Winchester is relatively nice but I wouldn’t say it is an outstanding place to be. The house prices there, in places like Weeke, Harestock, Badger Farm etc cannot be justified and will fall massively I think. Basingstoke, as somebody said earlier, is soulless. Working there for a year was beyond depressing and I was desperate to leave. The sinkhole estates rammed with BTL and HMO in places like Popley are going to be fascinating to watch over the coming years. There is *nothing* about B’Stoke that makes it worth living there. It is already nearly £10 just to get to Winchester on the train. Reading is about £6.50 from memory but then why would you want to go there particularly?

But then train ticket prices are another thing that I think are going to be interesting to track over the next couple of years...once inflation starts to bite how do they justify say 7% increases in fares particularly when people are going to be working from home a lot more from now on?

Agree on all counts.

Winchester is unjustifiably expensive and also rather soulless. The city centre is full of dossers, scroungers and piss-pots. House prices have been jacked up by wankers from London. 

To my mind, Salisbury is far nicer and half the price, if a little further from that London.

[DownwardSpiral]

2 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Agree on all counts.

Winchester is unjustifiably expensive and also rather soulless. The city centre is full of dossers, scroungers and piss-pots. House prices have been jacked up by wankers from London. 

To my mind, Salisbury is far nicer and half the price, if a little further from that London.

Yep, people tend to romanticise Winchester a little too much. Stanmore is very central and a lot of dossers amble over from there into the small city centre (around the Brooks Shopping Centre and McDonalds in particular). Couple that with a shedload of tourists and your “posh coffee”, squeezed in amongst the crowds, is just not enjoyable. The countryside around Winchester is beautiful however.

Salisbury is ok, if you don’t go by train (like Swindon, Winchester and Woking, the train companies exploit these relatively remote junction stations)  as it is expensive to get to even Romsey/Southampton and Warminster through to Bath/Bristol. The street leading from Salisbury station into the town is a bit of a shit tip which doesn’t do the city much justice. Salisbury is going to be hurt in the same way as Winchester though I feel.
 

The amount of property for rent and for sale in Cathays (student district of Cardiff) is insane right now. An area that is now mostly shit because of BTL/HMO/Student/Slumlords - it is now an area that nobody cares about and nobody is proud of. Nearly all of the long term residents are now gone. However Cardiff has gone ballistic with disgusting tower blocks for students - Cathays LLs are in massive trouble!

Edited April 20, 2020 by DownwardSpiral

[Sasquatch]

Someone's got cold feet in the 'ol letting marketplace. Courtesy of those wonderful chaps at Lillicrap Chilcott in sunny Cornwall.

https://www.lillicrapchilcott.com/Public/InvestmentOpportunities

 

[DownwardSpiral]

45 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Someone's got cold feet in the 'ol letting marketplace. Courtesy of those wonderful chaps at Lillicrap Chilcott in sunny Cornwall.

https://www.lillicrapchilcott.com/Public/InvestmentOpportunities

 

Wow! Just the 94 inexpensive properties 😂. Houses converted into flats - good luck with those.

[Noallegiance]

I really thought that EA name was a joke.

[Popuplights]

2 hours ago, DownwardSpiral said:

Yep, people tend to romanticise Winchester a little too much. Stanmore is very central and a lot of dossers amble over from there into the small city centre (around the Brooks Shopping Centre and McDonalds in particular). Couple that with a shedload of tourists and your “posh coffee”, squeezed in amongst the crowds, is just not enjoyable. The countryside around Winchester is beautiful however.

I'm Winchester born and bred. Went to school there, Met my wife at Peter Symonds. Stanmore has lots of student HMO, but the growth of bespoke student accommodation around the hospital area should fix that, and the coming decline in students of course. I have a house in Badger Farm, 80s build. No mortgage on it, so price falls irrelevant. Would help my kids out greatly though. I like the position, it's easy to walk into town, past my favourite pub, the Queen Inn. It's not my dream home, but it's ok.

Winchester has been very poorly served by the criminally useless city council for years. Whoever have the green ligh to the Brooks centre needs hanging.

Agree London refugees had driven prices up. The one hour commute to Waterloo makes it very attractive.

Easy to avoid tourists if you know where, and I agree, countryside is one of the real assets. I can be on a bridleway in 5 minutes on my bike. 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

How does BTL end.....who cares....it just needs to end now.

[DownwardSpiral]

19 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

I'm Winchester born and bred. Went to school there, Met my wife at Peter Symonds. Stanmore has lots of student HMO, but the growth of bespoke student accommodation around the hospital area should fix that, and the coming decline in students of course. I have a house in Badger Farm, 80s build. No mortgage on it, so price falls irrelevant. Would help my kids out greatly though. I like the position, it's easy to walk into town, past my favourite pub, the Queen Inn. It's not my dream home, but it's ok.

Winchester has been very poorly served by the criminally useless city council for years. Whoever have the green ligh to the Brooks centre needs hanging.

Agree London refugees had driven prices up. The one hour commute to Waterloo makes it very attractive.

Easy to avoid tourists if you know where, and I agree, countryside is one of the real assets. I can be on a bridleway in 5 minutes on my bike. 

 

One of my really fond memories of my time living in Winchester was walking along the Itchen from Winchester to Twyford and Shawford - loved it.

Given my partner and his family are from Winchester I dare say part of my future might be there (though I struggle when I leave Wales for significant amounts of time - all those sheep...) but despite having a significant amount in savings we are very definitely priced out. 

Horrendous council - agreed. The part of town around Brooks has aged very badly, very quickly!

[gibbon]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Someone's got cold feet in the 'ol letting marketplace. Courtesy of those wonderful chaps at Lillicrap Chilcott in sunny Cornwall.

https://www.lillicrapchilcott.com/Public/InvestmentOpportunities

 

 

Quote

Individual prices range from £48,000 to £125,000 with monthly rentals averaging £460 to provide an overall gross yield of 6% per annum and a net yield of approximately 5%

So a load of slums returning 5%...or more like 4%. Wow sign me up!

[Popuplights]

56 minutes ago, DownwardSpiral said:

. The part of town around Brooks has aged very badly, very quickly!

I think the best result would be for the Brooks to be demolished as part of the silver hill redevelopment. Won't happen though.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, gibbon said:

 

So a load of slums returning 5%...or more like 4%. Wow sign me up!

I was jsut thinking you can't talk about gross returns of 5% if you're a 40% tax payer......oiuch!   It's going to get brutal.

2 hours ago, DownwardSpiral said:

One of my really fond memories of my time living in Winchester was walking along the Itchen from Winchester to Twyford and Shawford - loved it.

Given my partner and his family are from Winchester I dare say part of my future might be there (though I struggle when I leave Wales for significant amounts of time - all those sheep...) but despite having a significant amount in savings we are very definitely priced out. 

Horrendous council - agreed. The part of town around Brooks has aged very badly, very quickly!

Be interesting to see what happens with the Chinese student population in the UK over the next two years.

[HolyCow]

On 09/04/2020 at 22:58, sancho panza said:

coukd be EE's heading home.....

Just seen this comment on a Telegraph article;

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/buy-to-let/landlords-fear-future-coronavirus-lockdown-leads-losses/

Quote

Artur Misztal 5 Apr 2020 10:20PM

As soon as the epidemic took off in Europe the Polish government has organised 'getBackHome' scheme in which they have used the partly government owned flag carrier LOT Airlines and offered the citizens and permanent residents a one way ticket home. It is said around 40 thousand (!!!) have used the scheme to get back home from the UK, and additional 50-60 thousand have driven back or used a different mode of transport.

 

Now, if you take into consideration, those people were renting or using shared accommodation (I would say easily most of them in London) then it means there will be a lot of vacant properties. And I am only talking about the Polish (I'm from Poland and could check the numbers out), don't mention any Italians, Spanish, Romanians or Bulgarians, French etc.. There is no work and won't be for the foreseeable future, then what's the point of staying and paying the sky-high rent here in the UK. It does look grim for the renting industry/business, so in my view those who got on the BTL ladder in the recent years will be struggling.

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by HolyCow

[gibbon]

5 hours ago, HolyCow said:

Just seen this comment on a Telegraph article;

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/buy-to-let/landlords-fear-future-coronavirus-lockdown-leads-losses/

 

 

Quote

Some will be forced to leave cities when rental contracts expire and return home, perhaps to parents’ houses or overseas, leaving landlords with empty properties.

Umm no. EE'ers are just going to up and leave. I would.

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, gibbon said:

 

Umm no. EE'ers are just going to up and leave. I would.

As keep repeating - most tenants are on 1 month notice.

Most LL have 10+ year mortgages or face several long rentless months to sell.

 

[spygirl]

This cunt, thicky Barrett has past form:

Paul Barrett 9 Apr 2020 7:09PM

 

Diamonds are as common as muck.

It is only by the market supply being restricted causes prices to be as high as they are.

There is an international diamond cartel operated by De Beers.

Ahh ,,,, the joos .....

Paul Barrett 9 Apr 2020 7:06PM

 

You are a fool.

There are already plenty of properties to buy.

The only thing preventing buying has been affordability.

Bringing additional supply to the market won't suddenly make properties affordable.

It would take many years for feckless tenants to give up their feckless lifestyles and start saving for the very large deposits that lenders will now require.

Such properties will NOT be reduced in price.

Only the 3 D's will encourage those selling because of them to possibly reduce asking prices.

There will will continue to be an ever declining rental sector especially as those subject to the ridiculous S24 tax policy sell up.

These former rental properties will rarely be sold to other LL and therefore will be a total loss to the rental market.

You delude yourself if you imagine that aspirant buyers will ve able to achieve their objectives.

Most buyers are upsizers and downsizers.

They have the resources to buy..FTB don't.

Aspirant FTB will find that mortgage valuers repeatedly downvalue such that an ever larger deposit will be required.

So your contention is COMPLETE LY incorrect

 

Gormless cunt.

Even the LL dont like him

https://www.propertytribes.com/announcement-paul-barrett-t-127626182.html

Now his grasping at strws - more property brought to market wont make it affordable ....  bless the thick cunt.

Here's how it works -  if thers fiance on a house and you miss payment then the bank will repo and the house will be put on the market and the pruide dropped until it sells.

If the only buyers are his 'feckless, pennyless tenants' then the house will clear at what they can afford using MMR.

Most buyers are not upsizes n downsizes. Upsizing died 20 years ago. There are few downsizers.

The housing market is driven by working people under 55. Prices will transact on local wages and employment.

What I constantly find jaw dropping stupid about LL is their assumption that the banks will continue lending to them.

Even if they mange to keep a rent paying tenant,, if a bank decides it has too many IO BTL in an area and the others are suffering rentless months then itll call its other IO BTL ASAP.

LL may be a bunc of cunts but theyll soon find that banks are even bigger cunts.

And god help them is they are borrowing from non-banks, where 'cunt' does not do justive to the TnCs theyll have signed up to.

Fucktards.

 

 

 

[Option5]

9 hours ago, gibbon said:

 

Umm no. EE'ers are just going to up and leave. I would.

I know a lot of Polish families who were going to go home due to Brexit. Most of the guys had already sent the wife and kids back and were just milking the last few drops from the job market.

I would imagine they've left already but the landlords probably won't find out until the end of the month or when the "rent free" period is up.

Keep an eye on the landlords websites for stories of missing tenants 

[HolyCow]

9 hours ago, gibbon said:

 

Umm no. EE'ers are just going to up and leave. I would.

Why? The whole rental market for EEs is different because a lot of them are young, mostly men, only here for a few years and living in house shares or as lodgers, earning low wages and not entitled to much welfare as they are young and single. A transient community who a mercenary in the sense that their ties to the UK are money. If the money disappears because the work disappears a lot of them will leave. I would if I was Polish. Lovely place and probably a better quality of life in the long run. Besides, there's no place like home.

Edited April 27, 2020 by HolyCow