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Frank Hovis

Coastal houses and sea level rise

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Posted (edited)

Mylor.jpg.90ce3e4e776553d8dc3cd23adfc8d114.jpg

The local paper throws up occasional "dream" houses which I look at and think "very nice".

However down 'yer, through a mixture of sea level rise and the land in the south of England sinking as the north of Britain rebounds from the last glaciation, sea levels have risen by a steady six inches in each of the last 50 years.

Whether or not they will continue at this rate or accelerate is for the global warming thread but I do question just how sensible a purchase something like this is.

The picture is taken at high tide to give the best image, at low tide it's mud, but that whole plot is a mere two foot above the tidal level.  And that's not going to be anywhere near the highest tide; the highest recent tides were in 2015.

At existing rates of sea level rise that will be flooding on every high tide in 200 years but if the rises even approach the current predictions then you'll be there in fifty years.  Now sure you can dump aggregate on it and lift the whole thing up but you'll need to keep doing that.

£999,950 in case anybody is feeling reckless.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-57670086.html

 

Also this one for £795k though that looks more like four feet rising to six feet so fine for a while.

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https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/property/impressive-riverside-home-you-can-2969074

 

Edited by Frank Hovis

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4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Mylor.jpg.90ce3e4e776553d8dc3cd23adfc8d114.jpg

The local paper throws up occasional "dream" houses which I look at and think "very nice".

However down 'yer, through a mixture of sea level rise and the land in the south of England sinking as the north of Britain rebounds from the last glaciation, sea levels have risen by a steady six inches in each of the last 50 years.

Whether or not they will continue at this rate or accelerate is for the global warming thread but I do question just how sensible a purchase something like this is.

The picture is taken at high tide to give the best image, at low tide it's mud, but that whole plot is a mere two foot above the tidal level.  And that's not going to be anywhere near the highest tide; the highest recent tides were in 2015.

At existing rates of sea level rise that will be flooding on every high tide in 200 years but if the rises even approach the current predictions then you'll be there in fifty years.  Now sure you can dump aggregate on it and lift the whole thing up but you'll need to keep doing that.

£999,950 in case anybody is feeling reckless.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-57670086.html

 

Also this one though that looks more ike four feet so fine for a while.

spacer.png

https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/property/impressive-riverside-home-you-can-2969074

 

Won’t it be flooding in 4 years? (6” x 4 years =2’)

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8 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Mylor.jpg.90ce3e4e776553d8dc3cd23adfc8d114.jpg

The local paper throws up occasional "dream" houses which I look at and think "very nice".

However down 'yer, through a mixture of sea level rise and the land in the south of England sinking as the north of Britain rebounds from the last glaciation, sea levels have risen by a steady six inches in each of the last 50 years.

Whether or not they will continue at this rate or accelerate is for the global warming thread but I do question just how sensible a purchase something like this is.

The picture is taken at high tide to give the best image, at low tide it's mud, but that whole plot is a mere two foot above the tidal level.  And that's not going to be anywhere near the highest tide; the highest recent tides were in 2015.

At existing rates of sea level rise that will be flooding on every high tide in 200 years but if the rises even approach the current predictions then you'll be there in fifty years.  Now sure you can dump aggregate on it and lift the whole thing up but you'll need to keep doing that.

£999,950 in case anybody is feeling reckless.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-57670086.html

 

Also this one for £795k though that looks more like four feet rising to six feet so fine for a while.

spacer.png

https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/property/impressive-riverside-home-you-can-2969074

 

That’s gone up a third of a million in two years. Kite flying in the extreme 

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1 minute ago, Mirror Mirror said:

Won’t it be flooding in 4 years? (6” x 4 years =2’)

Yes, slightly badly phrased.  It should say six inches in each of the last two fifty year periods.

To expand on my highest tides point the highest predicted tide from 2008 to 2026 for Newlyn was 6.13m whereas the highest in 2026 in 5.80m so that's 33cm different or about a foot.  This year it's 6.09m.

Low pressure and onshore winds will also lift the tide so that first one will flood on current sea levels if conditions combined.

They are both on creeks so the water may get choppy but there won't be actual waves.

https://www.ntslf.org/tides/hilo?port=Newlyn

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6 minutes ago, One percent said:

That’s gone up a third of a million in two years. Kite flying in the extreme 

I'm trying to get an idea of current pricing so that if / when things start to fall then I will know what constitutes a good price.

Lovely as that first one is flooding looks sewn on at least every fiive years currently and to become increasingly regular.  I'd maybe pay £300k for it, build high walls all around and buy lots of sandbags.

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Just now, Frank Hovis said:

I'm trying to get an idea of current pricing so that if / when things start to fall then I will know what constitutes a good price.

Lovely as that first one is flooding looks sewn on at least every fiive years currently and to become increasingly regular.  I'd maybe pay £300k for it, build high walls all around and buy lots of sandbags.

It’s difficult. My view is that in tourist type spots, there are two markets. One for the locals which are the sensible properties.  Probably not much of a view but within walking distance of one. Solid neighbourhood with soundly built property. The other is the incomer market. Stupidly priced because you are paying for a view. I wouldn’t live in one of these as your neighbours will be stuck up prigs with no sense of the local community. 

Also you have to choose very carefully as something might happen to spoil your view 

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Sandfield+House+Caravan+Park,+Whitby+YO21+3JJ/@54.4923432,-0.6437343,3a,75y,35.51h,90t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1sFzgWA3_wSAVq6j9kuPUbjA!2e0!4m2!3m1!1s0x487f19db512ba389:0xc6b828e96b55e4e8

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14 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Yes, slightly badly phrased.  It should say six inches in each of the last two fifty year periods.

To expand on my highest tides point the highest predicted tide from 2008 to 2026 for Newlyn was 6.13m whereas the highest in 2026 in 5.80m so that's 33cm different or about a foot.  This year it's 6.09m.

Low pressure and onshore winds will also lift the tide so that first one will flood on current sea levels if conditions combined.

They are both on creeks so the water may get choppy but there won't be actual waves.

https://www.ntslf.org/tides/hilo?port=Newlyn

Ah ok sorry I read it the other way. All clear now and I thought 6” a year sounded a lot...

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Yes,  probably better to get something fronting onto a canal if water is your thing.

The description is a bit misleading..  they say "river", they really mean "tidal estuary"

 

 

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12 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

how high are new nuclear power stations being built above sea level ? They're going to be there for a few hundred years.

I don't think Dungeness is.  First off who builds a pwer station on shifting shingle such that

Quote

A fleet of lorries is used to continuously maintain shingle sea defences for the plant as coastal erosion would otherwise move shingle away at an estimated rate of 6 m per year. Around 30,000 cubic metres of shingle are moved each year.

And as to tides, one bullet dodged in 1987....

Quote

The site is a few metres above Mean Sea Level and would be isolated in the event of flooding of the magnitude that submerged large areas of East Anglia and the Netherlands in 1953. It has been conjectured[who?] that the hurricane of 1987 did not bring the sea to the stations because there was a low tide at the time. Climate change could cause more frequent and powerful storms, and associated waves and surges are possible though not probable, and might increase the instability of the headland.[33]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dungeness_nuclear_power_station

Britain's Fukushima and no need for a tidal wave to make it happen.

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Some bits of the coastal world do fall into the sea (like Norfolk). Scotland is OK however as it is still rising after the weight of the ice has gone.

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12 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Yes,  probably better to get something fronting onto a canal if water is your thing.

The description is a bit misleading..  they say "river", they really mean "tidal estuary"

 

It's the access to the sea without being on the sea with the risk of storm damage that I like.  Kayak, motor boat or go yachting for the day from the bottom of your garden.

Though the house would have to be considerably above the high tide point with the garden sloping down to it.

This, for example, would be ideal but outside of a lottery win no chance for me.  It's the whole peninsula but it would require £7m to buy the place and the same again to give you the income to run it.  And I think it has anyway already been sold.

spacer.png 

 

https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/grade-listed-castle-goes-up-1456300

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Just now, whitevanman said:

I haven't noticed any sea level rise on the south coast. It's all a load of old bollocks.

Don't let @Hopeful hear you say that!

You haven't noticed it for the same reason I haven't noticed it.  There is a twenty foot tidal range and the height of high tides varies for astronomical (the position of the moon relative to the earth and sun rather than very large!) reasons both within each year and across each year.  Then overlay onto that unpredictable effects of high pressure / low pressure and offshore / onshore winds.

I have known the same area of coast very well for nearly forty years but the average sea level rise in Cornwall in that time relative to the land is five inches as measured at Newlyn, next to Penzance.  There is absolutely no way that you can see that sort of rise against the natural variability of the tides outside of the statistical method.

Just now, snaga said:

I assume getting a 25 year mortage on seaside properties is now impossible.

 

Plus getting insurance.

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15 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Don't let @Hopeful hear you say that!

You haven't noticed it for the same reason I haven't noticed it.  There is a twenty foot tidal range and the height of high tides varies for astronomical (the position of the moon relative to the earth and sun rather than very large!) reasons both within each year and across each year.  Then overlay onto that unpredictable effects of high pressure / low pressure and offshore / onshore winds.

I have known the same area of coast very well for nearly forty years but the average sea level rise in Cornwall in that time relative to the land is five inches as measured at Newlyn, next to Penzance.  There is absolutely no way that you can see that sort of rise against the natural variability of the tides outside of the statistical method.

Plus getting insurance.

High tide hasn't been rising. People would notice if the mean high tide was rising. I'm a sailor and know lots of other sailors, nothing really changes apart from the mud and shingle moving about a bit. 

Academia is corrupt and nobody believes their bullshit anymore.

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6 minutes ago, whitevanman said:

High tide hasn't been rising. People would notice if the mean high tide was rising. I'm a sailor and know lots of other sailors, nothing really changes apart from the mud and shingle moving about a bit. 

Academia is corrupt and nobody believes their bullshit anymore.

Whatever you may think of predictions here is Newlyn analysed by somebody else who certainly doesn't believe the climate change propaganda.  He however accepts that it has been rising and continues to do so with the big difference being by how much.  His analysis suggests that the rate of rise is slowing down whereas the more excitable climate "scientists" have water lapping around Norwich pedestrian precinct by 2100.

I certainly accept that it is rising, if inconsistently, but per the chart below this is at 1.83mmper year average or 7 inches per hundred years with a lot of fluctuations running through that.  I really don't think anybody would notice that rise in the sea within a humna lifespan; it's not like it's the tideless Med.

spacer.png

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/07/21/analysis-of-sea-level-trends-at-newlyn/

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11 minutes ago, whitevanman said:

High tide hasn't been rising. People would notice if the mean high tide was rising. I'm a sailor and know lots of other sailors, nothing really changes apart from the mud and shingle moving about a bit. 

Academia is corrupt and nobody believes their bullshit anymore.

Why there's nothing wrong with that. Ahoy matey from HMS Fishfinger! And all we proudly bumped into.

Unfortunately, academia is corrupt and always has been.

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

I'm trying to get an idea of current pricing so that if / when things start to fall then I will know what constitutes a good price.

Lovely as that first one is flooding looks sewn on at least every fiive years currently and to become increasingly regular.  I'd maybe pay £300k for it, build high walls all around and buy lots of sandbags.

Not sure that would stop the ground getting waterlogged, and what about the smell of the mud, even now.

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Just now, Panther said:

Not sure that would stop the ground getting waterlogged, and what about the smell of the mud, even now.

For a knock down price you could afford to do something about it but yes forget it for £1m.

The mud doesn't smell in Cornish estuaries; I don't really know why as I have been to other places where it absolutely reeks.

My best guess would be that you have hardly any rotting seaweed as it doesn't carry up that far.

Somehwere that absolutely reeks is Portreath inner harbour which is full of rotting seaweed.  There are houses all around it which I assume are only bought in the few weeks every year after the seaweed has been cleared and the smell is gone.

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14 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

For a knock down price you could afford to do something about it but yes forget it for £1m.

The mud doesn't smell in Cornish estuaries; I don't really know why as I have been to other places where it absolutely reeks.

My best guess would be that you have hardly any rotting seaweed as it doesn't carry up that far.

Somehwere that absolutely reeks is Portreath inner harbour which is full of rotting seaweed.  There are houses all around it which I assume are only bought in the few weeks every year after the seaweed has been cleared and the smell is gone.

Parts of the North Brittany coast are like that. There is one (forgot the name) you the smell wafts in miles inland, maybe just the few degrees warmer water accounts for the difference. The water around the Cornish coast coming straight off the Atlantic currents will keep the water clearer and cooler than would otherwise be the case, also most of the coves are pretty tiny and wash right out, on the Brittany coast that are large areas of shallow seas and big estuaries which trap much more water ad give  it time to warm up in the sun.

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If you could get one of these places at a knockdown price that was otherwise a prime site, but flooded at spring tides (say) then you could put one of the Dutch houses that float (when necessary) on the site. If you could get insurance (doubt it) on the first house, use that to build the replacement Dutch-style one.

I remember a Grand Designs house on the Thames that was done using the same principles, a gigantic float was in the foundations.

Image result for floating house thames grand designs

 

but I think the Dutch know how to do it better and cheaper, they have hundreds of years of know-how.

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1 hour ago, whitevanman said:

I haven't noticed any sea level rise on the south coast. It's all a load of old bollocks.

Is the right answer. My home town has always flooded on occasion. It continues to flood on occasion. I don’t think it floods now anymore than it used to 

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