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This was the tool I was using - https://ficalc.app/. This explains the data used https://guide.ficalc.app/configuration/historical-data/ I believe a lot of Shiller's raw data is here - http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

On all the Fed cornered stuff, they might just have enough time. They have already said that they'll be raising .50bps at the June and July meetings which would bring them to 2%. If they don't break something big by then, I think they'll have caught up with the bond market by that stage, and will pause. That of course assumes that the 2yr has topped here. There are lots of signs that it has, and it's currently a lower high, but we'll see.

Great - a pointer to that dataset would be much appreciated

Ah, I remember it well, the Great Chicago Fire and opening of the splendid Royal Albert Hall.

Very true

DB, if the RRP figure is going up does that mean commercial banks are still not yet lending it out into the economy, or could they be doing that but the RRP figure is going up anyway because it is being replenished by Fed doing further TOMO / Temp open market operations (!?)

Yes and all I remember about Repo rates was that there was some sort of crisis in September 2019 and then Covid appeared a few months later The following is from May 2021 just 12 months ago EDIT An explanation of the Repo market (and Reverse Repo) with some details on the September 2019 Repo crisis here: https://www.thelondonfinancial.com/markets/reverse-repo-and-the-collateral-crisis to help those who are easily confused like myself REPO "Since around September, 2019, the US Federal Reserve has been heavily and directly involved in the repo market – for the first time to this extent since the financial crisis. This was due to a severe ‘cash crunch’ at the time that caused repo rates to soar upwards of 10% (i.e. banks would not part with cash for lower than this rate). The Fed intervened with a view to reduce friction in markets, not unlike oiling a machine, before exiting out again through the first half of 2020. Of course, we all know now what was to come during this period. The shock to the economy caused by Covid-19 forced the Fed’s hand and meant there was no way they could withdraw from the repo market without causing markets to grind to a halt. What started as a $50-60 billion operation in 2019 was ramped up dramatically with the announcement of a 3-month injection of $500 billion in March 2020. The following day, the Fed reinforced their position and announced they would inject a further $1 trillion over 3-month and 1-month operations, stating they would be prepared to offer up to $1 trillion per week going forward." Reverse Repo "At this point it is important to note that the Fed also offers what is known as a ‘reverse repo’ via their Reverse Repo (RRP) facility. This uses the same mechanism as a repo, but rather than the Fed buying Treasury securities (T-bills), they instead exchange those same securities and receive cash on their balance sheet – purchasing them back the next day. The key difference between the two types of operations are that, while repo operations add liquidity to the financial system by providing institutions with cash, reverse repo operations instead remove liquidity from the system. According to the Fed’s own rules on repo market operations, “overnight operations cannot go over $500 billion in lending”. However, as mentioned at the start of the article, this figure has almost doubled with the recent surge in overnight reverse repo operations. So what has caused this increase and what are the potential ramifications?"

1871

Sanctions, so it's in red!

This is the key focus of the Fed,getting that out into the economy,if they fail they will go back to monetizing government debt instead.

Yeah, that one in arkengarthdale has been up for well over a year. Shit access, hilly and needs a bloody fortune spending on it. Not knocking you as I sometimes think it myself, but the idea that that's a more reasonable price just shows you how nuts things are.

It isn't the heat or cold that kills dahlia tubers, it's the damp winters. They don't grow well the more west or north you go. I can't imagine it being very easy to grow them in Manchester.

In fairness to Rishi, nowhere in that statement does he say that the months will be consecutive. They could be:- May 2022 January 2023 November 2023 Ad infinitum

OK, maybe a bit of licence (I don't know or need to care) but this helped open up my Overton window to the wider possibilities.... Doesn't change what I do, just makes me try to do it better!

I agree. Anything with a farm on it in North Yorkshire is balmy. This was what I found to show ‘slightly better’ value. Please note though…I do agree and there were many more examples showing massive prices particularly on smaller farms….but also on big farmland plots too. Derelict barn, 54 acres dodgy land £190k https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86282042#/?channel=COM_BUY 100 acres £435k (split into lots and I assume the crapper land is cheapest) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78578382#/?channel=COM_BUY I will hide in a field and wait for a farmer to sell cheap….I might be a while😂 In the meantime (back in the real world) I am watching this volatile day to buy a couple of ladders on shares. 👍

The debt loads are why profits will go up as long as they increase prices,even half 3/4s the inflation rate because those increases are higher than the coupons on debt.ROCE increasing is the key to telcos going forward.Of course during the cycle they will need to pay down a lot of debt as it comes due rather than roll it all over and for that reason divid wont fly,but remember,to beat this cycles inflation,if T doesnt cut its divi again 2%pa increases are all thats needed.Telcos arent about making big capital gains,they are about keeping ahead of this inflation.

It's not just bigger places, my place was built 1720/30s and the heating costs have always been huge due to it's age, this October is going to be really noticeable

Not quite. That clause is in their standard terms. The standard terms are subordinate to later terms that are stated when the mortgage is agreed. If the terms you accept are for a term of 25 years, for example, then they cannot fall back on their standard terms just because they want to.

Crucial worry now is inflation,and that inflation starting at the top of a bond bubble and stock bubble (in tech/growth).It also matters when someone goes into retirement.Drawing down from last year inflation adjusted means 17% spending power down after one year.Remember as well 99% of these people arent investors like us,they are people who have £250k pensions,go at 60 and rely on the 4%/5% and state pension. You have tiny risk of running out, big salary,big savings and still working.The risks are the millions of ordinary workers earning in the £30 to £35k area whos lifetimes savings in their pension could go within 8 to 15 years in drawdown.When i did a final salary transfer i had to act dumb and that the IFA would be managing it so they would do the transfer,i then moved it to my SIPP the day it arrived to their horror.The mix he came up with was very very decent and wasnt far off a 60/40 type,including some of Vanguards as well.I could see though of course it had no chance of doing its job in an inflation cycle.Iv still got the portfolio model.The IFA was 32.Clear she had zero understanding of inflation cycles.1.4% fees on top of fund fees as well.They have thousands of clients, Joslin Rhodes in Stockton. This cycle will and is moving wealth from ABC to XYZ In most periods a 60/40 is a good place for most people with an income portfolio of direct holdings as well.However during an inflation it isnt.Not a disaster like some areas,but for those in drawdown i fear they are in for a huge shock.I think it will mean more BTL sales and more Equity Release.

If you fancy the Swedish countryside @sextonmight be able to offer advice.

Its just a northern Sweden thing: Norrland has 10% of the population but 66% of the land. Its 10% bigger than Britain but with a million people instead of 65 million. Even the south isnt expensive outside of Stockholm, Malmö Gothenburg etc. Same applies to most of Europe though. Look at Normandy, same properties for similar price. Not news to anyone on here but this country is uniquely fucking nuts when it comes to land prices. My ex council house in teesside just sold for 85k, on an estate that was once nice and is now a shit hole. I rest my case.

IBTL continuing to provide an excellent free education in TA (charting, candles, currency interdependence, etc).

does that price reflect the risk of becoming part of Russia in 18 months?

Don't think anyone has mentioned this yet... that is $1.9 trillion and a $140 billion jump in one day - yesterday It's hard to get a handle on how big a trillion actually is but as someone else on Twitter helpfully explained: if each second counts as one: One million is 11 days One billion is 31 years One trillion is 31 thousand years

This is where [direction not necessarily location] I am thinking of 'going', rather than buying an unaffordable property in the UK, buying a smaller and cheaper 'bolt hole' overseas somewhere...anyone done this?...like to start a new thread to share your advice/experience in buying it etc?