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Agreed on DH,I think we should see the Fed pivot in line with Luke Groemns end Q3( I suspect the jobs situation is much worse than the BLS numbers are stating(lot of people in part time jobs),thanks to @ThoughtCriminal psot we can see the uptick in default rates in teh US across multiple loan types-mortgage,credit card etc. In terms of where we're putting our meony ,then I think Fed pivot begets weak dollar phase.Weak dollar phase begets more inflation and ultinately a BK in the credit markets. We're jsut at the beginning of what could be a generational sell off dwarfing the coof and 2008.Last time around jsut the banks were screwed, now it's banks govts and individuals but even worse in an environement where aging populations and declining energy supplies give the polo's/CBers no way out. Fisher wrote debt deflation cycle psot 1932(Ive jsut printed it in the property crash thread but worth looking again now .) I f we get a credit delfation and price inflation running alongsdie it,then it'll be the sort of stuff future generations will study. Time will tell. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher According to Fisher, once the credit bubble bursts, this unleashes a series of effects that have serious negative impact on the real economy: Debt liquidation and distress selling. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off. A fall in the level of asset prices. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies. A fall in profits. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment. Pessimism and loss of confidence. Hoarding of money. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation-adjusted interest rates.

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Key consideration imho is having a plan for when you cant work anymore.Thats either paying a hosue off,or having pension assets in situ to pay rent or buy somewhere. Some people don't have the money to either buy a hosue or save for their retiremetn and thats a tough boat to be in. I think the Fed will pivot especially as I think the jobs situation in the US is worse than the BLS data shows.Their dual mandate and having learned hard watched and learned their playbook,means I'm expecting a pivot.Whoch will mena weak dollar phase and then possiblt BK,quite what happens to rates thereafter I jsut don't know.I think the infaltion is embeded demogrpahically in terms of wages and on the supply side in energy. Dificult to figure the way through this whats coming A lot of people are overpaying but this is pure Fishers debt deflation cycle as people paying down debts reduces economci activity and therefore reduces people;s ability to earn down the line see from number 2/3/4/etc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher 'According to Fisher, once the credit bubble bursts, this unleashes a series of effects that have serious negative impact on the real economy: Debt liquidation and distress selling. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off. A fall in the level of asset prices. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies. A fall in profits. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment. Pessimism and loss of confidence. Hoarding of money. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation-adjusted interest rates. Fair play.I was wrong about hosue prices from about 2004 to 2015 when I finally got my head around CB playbooks.We specualte like you. Although we use our salaries to pay rent then I invest in equites andn trade options for us as a family. We're in the same situation if needed use divis for rent.Very lucky but have worked hard and like you taken some big losses on the way,partticualrly scottish play,northern rock and a few more.also made a few bob too.can't complain. Far more worried on a personal level about hedging sterling,food,fuel than buying a hosue these days.Can't be arsed maintaining one. We're looking to buy one when we retire on the isle of man I think.will rent till then.unless they become a fair bit cheaper then they currently are.my main interest in them is what will happen to the banks balance sheets but I think you only get a clear view on hosuing pricing many months after the transactions and tooo late for me to trade it. If we bought now,I'd have to sell some of our long term holdings such as shell/bp/barrick/newmont etc,all bought for good prices and I'm jsut not willing to surrender them on an opportunity cost basis. @With a crooked smile thank you for your kind word.s

Thank you, but I think skills and knowledge is pushing it. 😂 I think what I was good at was recognising an opportunity. The collapse in the oil price meant the opportunity to short poor quality, overly indebted oilies needed to be taken. Afren, Gulf Keystone, Petroceltic, Xcite Energy and a few others. But also recognising it wasn't the same in 2020. The weak companies had already went to the wall. You couldn't go wrong with oilies in 2020. I shorted Wirecard periodically to exhaustion. I'd given up, but then I saw a story that the forensic auditors weren't signing off on their cash balances. I understood what that meant and turned a 20 grand loss into a 30 grand win. I'm 60 grand down from shorting Tesla. 😭