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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)


spunko

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@Sasquatch

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 We will need to clear our mortgage in early 2028 at the end of our fixed rate. I also want to keep maximising isa contributions and we won't be able to do this from earnings in a couple of years time as we wind down the business. The lump sums from the SIPPS will allow this for a little longer. 

thanks, that's given me an idea of doing the same, I'd like to clear the mortgage when the current fixed rate deal ends in early 2027, it would be better to use 25% tax free lump sum from SIPP to do this, than to raid our ISAs. Government policy permitting :)

now do I de-risk my SIPP, and getting more adventurous with our ISAs .... 

Edited by snaga
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reformed nice guy

Forget Durham. Choose Stockton.

Long gilts

Long residential property

Inflation gone tomorrow

Natural gas will be long goneexcel.thumb.png.398f6c4fd8faacc679d4d23fb7e6cb41.png

Simple as

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34 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Could someone explain 'credit', 'deflation', 'reflation' and 'cycle' to me please. 

Ta!

It means buy high, sell low, get money

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Calcutta
1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Could someone explain 'credit', 'deflation', 'reflation' and 'cycle' to me please. 

Ta!

Don't bother, they're just giving your own money back to you.

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1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Could someone explain 'credit', 'deflation', 'reflation' and 'cycle' to me please. 

Ta!

I think we get the first part, but not a reflation cycle because our polo's are corrupt and useless.

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GoneDark
11 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

I have pretty much done that over the last few weeks.

Gone completely defensive now. 

80% cash at 4.4% net interest in CSH2

10% miners (Large & Small cap / gold & silver juniors mainly etf/funds)

4% Energy and Oil (mainly etf)

3% EMs

2% Physical Gold 

1% Tobacco (IMB)

 


“Sell in May and go away”. 

Looking at the inverted yield curve (530 days so far and no crash - longest time ever), and the returns the S&P has given since Covid, and how fractured / messed up the UK economy is  - this has to be completely unsustainable. 

The whole market is going down the toilet when this blows up.

Might be today, tomorrow, next week or next year or the year after - but it’s coming…. I don’t need to be caught in the ensuing carnage. More to lose than gain. 

Bring it on….. the last 4 years have been very good post Covid -  hopefully I will be able to repeat on a larger scale when she blows. 
 

edited %’s as my maths was slightly out ! 

 

 

That's really bold and honest of you to post that. My post was no reflection of my actions, just another bad joke.

You haven't mentioned crypto going to zero so I wish you good luck 🤞 

Me, I have no idea what's going on. With crypto and the precious doing well I guess I'm doing OK. I think...

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💥💥💥💫💪🍸🍸🍸🍷🍷🍺🍺🍺

FRIST PSOT! 1

Ah fuck

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

no BAT i see,hmm il be watching you :ph34r:

You know when the kung fu master says you can walk over the fire it won't hurt you if your heart is clean, well my BAT is a funny colour but I know it will all work out.

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3 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:


Nice one. 🍻 

I enjoyed the crypto ride 3 years ago with Argo Blockchain. Went from 4p to about 282p in the space of 6 months - a mere 70x bagger. I got in at 4p but didn’t get the 70x bags - but let’s just say I did ok. It was the most bought daily stock on H&L. 

The liquidity has been in Silver - doubled from $13 to $26 in 2020, potash (lots of 6x baggers, some miners again 6x baggers, S&P (25% a year !) and the Nasdaq and oil and commodities and now back to crypto recently.

Rolls Royce recently did 50p to 430p again - let’s just say again I did ok. 

It’s now flowing through precious metals and gold and silver and those miners. It’s sniffing around emerging markets too. 

Crazy crazy times…. It cannot continue. The system is so unstable. Bubbles everywhere.

Some are calling it the “Everything bubble”. 

I’ll keep my 20 % holdings of Miners/ PMs/oil and emerging markets for now. If they go to crazy I’ll sell into the bubble. 

What will the next asset class after that be? 
 

 

Jesus wept! 

Nothing of mine apart from polymetal has ever gone up much. I am daily grateful when it has gone up a bit instead of down. Must be fabulous to have an anything-bagger.

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Bobthebuilder
6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Jesus wept! 

Nothing of mine apart from polymetal has ever gone up much. I am daily grateful when it has gone up a bit instead of down. Must be fabulous to have an anything-bagger.

The best I have had during my entire 6 years on this thread is one stock at +150%.

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Red Debt Redemption
2 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

I have pretty much done that over the last few weeks.

Gone completely defensive now. 

80% cash at 4.4% net interest in CSH2

10% miners (Large & Small cap / gold & silver juniors mainly etf/funds)

4% Energy and Oil (mainly etf)

3% EMs

2% Physical Gold 

1% Tobacco (IMB)

 


“Sell in May and go away”. 

Looking at the inverted yield curve (530 days so far and no crash - longest time ever), and the returns the S&P has given since Covid, and how fractured / messed up the UK economy is  - this has to be completely unsustainable. 

The whole market is going down the toilet when this blows up.

Might be today, tomorrow, next week or next year or the year after - but it’s coming…. I don’t need to be caught in the ensuing carnage. More to lose than gain. 

Bring it on….. the last 4 years have been very good post Covid -  hopefully I will be able to repeat on a larger scale when she blows. 
 

edited %’s as my maths was slightly out ! 

 

 

Is Sterling also going down the toilet though.. Faster than things not in Sterling?

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baffledbyzirp
1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

Haha ! 

I have stuck with IMB as it had paid great dividends - but also has returned some capital growth 20%. I may sell it soon too. I had a fair bit tied up in BAT and also various telcos.

If I miss out on 7-8% for the next year and get 4.4% on the cash so be it - I will sleep better and be better equipped …..IF or when the market does implode.

I am pretty sure it will. 

I am certainly not a “buy and hold” investor.

Might be next cycle. Not sure.

As you know I came completely new to this in March 2020. I have learnt so so much. Thank you.  Been one hell of a ride.

I seem to have an uncanny knack of spotting share price bottoms and tops ! Pure fluke - just get a ‘gut feeling’. The luck cannot continue. Feels like high stakes gambling. 

Going to take a step back for now and enjoy other things. 

Good Luck to all.

JW I also have the knack of picking tops and bottoms; when i buy i invariably mark the top and when i sell prices immediately recover. Perhaps I should approach this differently?

Be lucky.

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wherebee

In part 4 someone mentioned IHT.

I wonder if in the UK, now that you can marry anyone of any sex, you'll get similar situations to Civil War pensioners where an industry grew up to arrange marriages between young girls and 80 year old vets, as the wives then got the civil war pension for life.

For UK IHT, which I suspect will be more and more crippling, if single you could 'marry' someone - anyone, a man, woman, whatever - to get the IHT benefit to spouse, they could pay you an annual stipend, and when you died and your house was sold, they'd get the  extra tax free.  For asset rich, income poor pensioners I can see an angle.  Marry a 90 year old, pay 10k a year, get 325k tax free.  got to be worth it?

Here in Oz, no inheritance tax, one reason I will be giving up my UK citizenship so the fuckers don't chase me after i am dead.

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