Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[baffledbyzirp]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

Haha ! 

I have stuck with IMB as it had paid great dividends - but also has returned some capital growth 20%. I may sell it soon too. I had a fair bit tied up in BAT and also various telcos.

If I miss out on 7-8% for the next year and get 4.4% on the cash so be it - I will sleep better and be better equipped …..IF or when the market does implode.

I am pretty sure it will. 

I am certainly not a “buy and hold” investor.

Might be next cycle. Not sure.

As you know I came completely new to this in March 2020. I have learnt so so much. Thank you.  Been one hell of a ride.

I seem to have an uncanny knack of spotting share price bottoms and tops ! Pure fluke - just get a ‘gut feeling’. The luck cannot continue. Feels like high stakes gambling. 

Going to take a step back for now and enjoy other things. 

Good Luck to all.

JW I also have the knack of picking tops and bottoms; when i buy i invariably mark the top and when i sell prices immediately recover. Perhaps I should approach this differently?

Be lucky.

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Was that the pause then? 

The pause got paused

[wherebee]

In part 4 someone mentioned IHT.

I wonder if in the UK, now that you can marry anyone of any sex, you'll get similar situations to Civil War pensioners where an industry grew up to arrange marriages between young girls and 80 year old vets, as the wives then got the civil war pension for life.

For UK IHT, which I suspect will be more and more crippling, if single you could 'marry' someone - anyone, a man, woman, whatever - to get the IHT benefit to spouse, they could pay you an annual stipend, and when you died and your house was sold, they'd get the  extra tax free.  For asset rich, income poor pensioners I can see an angle.  Marry a 90 year old, pay 10k a year, get 325k tax free.  got to be worth it?

Here in Oz, no inheritance tax, one reason I will be giving up my UK citizenship so the fuckers don't chase me after i am dead.

[Loki]

Just now, wherebee said:

an industry grew up to arrange marriages between young girls and 80 year old vets

I'm listening

[Noallegiance]

I'm awake watching the golf.

Thought I'd take a look.

There's definitely something different occurring....

[Starsend]

21 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm awake watching the golf.

Thought I'd take a look.

There's definitely something different occurring....

Gold's going spaz again.

[XswampyX]

For posterity.

[Heart's Ease]

 

Broke $2400 new ath etc.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

Broke $2400 new ath etc.

Who’s ready for a 2024 global currency crisis to kick off the transition to CBDCs? 
 

Not the time to be selling out of the miners that’s for sure. Parabolic moves are going to start getting attention with the likes of tech topping out and the western funds will start waking up.

Trailing stop losses the order of the day and laddering out profits. 

Looks like the time we all were expecting is here, but it’s even caught most of the Dosbodderati by surprise.

Edited April 12 by Lightscribe

[Lightscribe]

Just stick in a passive 60/40 innit?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/stocks-are-headed-for-a-decade-long-dead-zone-with-losses-on-par-with-the-dot-com-bust-fund-manager-says/ar-BB1lpqmA?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=2c39a379e1b145e89ccf9400a0693799&ei=17

Edited April 12 by Lightscribe

[BurntBread]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

In part 4 someone mentioned IHT.

I wonder if in the UK, now that you can marry anyone of any sex, you'll get similar situations to Civil War pensioners where an industry grew up to arrange marriages between young girls and 80 year old vets, as the wives then got the civil war pension for life.

For UK IHT, which I suspect will be more and more crippling, if single you could 'marry' someone - anyone, a man, woman, whatever - to get the IHT benefit to spouse, they could pay you an annual stipend, and when you died and your house was sold, they'd get the  extra tax free.  For asset rich, income poor pensioners I can see an angle.  Marry a 90 year old, pay 10k a year, get 325k tax free.  got to be worth it?

Here in Oz, no inheritance tax, one reason I will be giving up my UK citizenship so the fuckers don't chase me after i am dead.

I think the last war widow of the American civil war died in 2010, or thereabouts.

[Errol]

Just to be clear, it may take some time and be a rough ride but I am fully anticipating silver going close to $300 or more.

[Pip321]

32 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

I think the last war widow of the American civil war died in 2010, or thereabouts.

Yep, she was 17 and married a 93 year old in 1936.
She died and civil war widows pension payment stopped 155 years after the civil war. 

I think @wherebeeis onto something re IHT too….lets try guess who will manipulate the system🤔. 

I was thinking about this a month or so ago when I heard a friend had a widows teachers pension and they are 51. Their partner was 66 when they died….

I have realised BTL is a trap when it comes to IHT, CGT and income tax. Not looking for sympathy…..more just to highlight how difficult it is to mitigate the tax. I can’t sell part of a house to use some allowances, I can’t only draw rent at certain times, it’s impossible to hide, can’t pass it on to kids covertly and rent impacts benefits (eg carers allowance) unlike interest/dividends.

The one way it mitigate is via limited company but for me it’s exit time. 

Now I do mitigate with debt but really it’s borrowing from Peter to avoid paying Paul….and I am selling but the CGT is ever present. I think many BTL’ers will be in bother as this cycle begins to play out. 

I think more wider (ie not property) families do need to work more closely together like perhaps some of the more traditional Indian families do….ie multiple generation households and the house/wealth in the name not of the old grandma, nor even the 50 year old daughter but infact the 27 year old granddaughter.

I think I need a cunning plan. Clue below….(and maybe more people are beginning to realise it😉) 

[Jay]

22 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Yep, she was 17 and married a 93 year old in 1936.
She died and civil war widows pension payment stopped 155 years after the civil war. 

I think @wherebeeis onto something re IHT too….lets try guess who will manipulate the system🤔. 

I was thinking about this a month or so ago when I heard a friend had a widows teachers pension and they are 51. Their partner was 66 when they died….

I have realised BTL is a trap when it comes to IHT, CGT and income tax. Not looking for sympathy…..more just to highlight how difficult it is to mitigate the tax. I can’t sell part of a house to use some allowances, I can’t only draw rent at certain times, it’s impossible to hide, can’t pass it on to kids covertly and rent impacts benefits (eg carers allowance) unlike interest/dividends.

The one way it mitigate is via limited company but for me it’s exit time. 

Now I do mitigate with debt but really it’s borrowing from Peter to avoid paying Paul….and I am selling but the CGT is ever present. I think many BTL’ers will be in bother as this cycle begins to play out. 

I think more wider (ie not property) families do need to work more closely together like perhaps some of the more traditional Indian families do….ie multiple generation households and the house/wealth in the name not of the old grandma, nor even the 50 year old daughter but infact the 27 year old granddaughter.

I think I need a cunning plan. Clue below….(and maybe more people are beginning to realise it😉) 

I think maybe take a look at your fres today…

the us has advised travel warnings for yanks…oil is rising and so is pms..

you could always gift your properties to your heirs ..still a nice play to be..be lucky..

[Lightscribe]

Decent move for FRES out the trap opening on the sleepy UK market. Let’s see what happens 2:30.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Who’s ready for a 2024 global currency crisis to kick off the transition to CBDCs? 
 

Not the time to be selling out of the miners that’s for sure. Parabolic moves are going to start getting attention with the likes of tech topping out and the western funds will start waking up.

Trailing stop losses the order of the day and laddering out profits. 

Looks like the time we all were expecting is here, but it’s even caught most of the Dosbodderati by surprise.

Its funny,but i said i thought the thread was about to enter its 2nd great capital building period of the cycle.I upped the silvers just before the moves.Make some fantastic profits the last few years reading this cycle,potash and energy,but it was always silver that just looked like a bubble waiting to happen.I think its obvious now silver is the metal that runs when we lose democracy etc.I hope whatever is ahead makes everyone on the thread money to get them ahead of these fuckers running the country.

[Hardhat]

I sold loads of my ISA PMs at breakeven or a few % loss about a month ago to fund some house renovations.

Absolutely typical 

Luckily still got a fair amount in the SIPP - but this was the move I'd been waiting for and knew was coming at some point. Renovations couldn't wait so at least it's in another form of hard asset...

[DurhamBorn]

Should add,not as noticed but Platinum has just broke through $1000.It wont be anywhere near as exciting,but the Platinum miners still look very cheap  never mind if the metals turn bubble.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Hardhat said:

I sold loads of my ISA PMs at breakeven or a few % loss about a month ago to fund some house renovations.

Absolutely typical 

Luckily still got a fair amount in the SIPP - but this was the move I'd been waiting for and knew was coming at some point. Renovations couldn't wait so at least it's in another form of hard asset...

You still have a fair amount,most have none.They have gilts.

[Pip321]

57 minutes ago, Errol said:

Just to be clear, it may take some time and be a rough ride but I am fully anticipating silver going close to $300 or more.

I knew Fres would kick back in although I am still 8% down….

Now, where’s my Polymetal? 😆

A day of reflection….I have found after a couple of years my approach is becoming more easy for me to understand and therefore develop.

Generally I trade shares (good or bad shares) and hold funds/EFTs. I also generally purchase large amounts in funds/EFTs and smaller amounts in shares. 

I think it’s the nature of how I perceive the risk…GJGB and Blackrock gold for example I ignored and just held as soon as I bought…they rocketed last year and no inclination to sell, then they fell and I was relieved and just bought more. Perhaps it the spray and pay or even some naivety in that it’s being ‘managed’ to some extent and a more macro type call rather than a company call. (See Fres above 😆)

Anyhoo…..looks like we are on a roll and whilst I can see commods rolling back I don’t see PMs coming back to those low lows again.

Edited April 12 by Pip321

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its funny,but i said i thought the thread was about to enter its 2nd great capital building period of the cycle.I upped the silvers just before the moves.Make some fantastic profits the last few years reading this cycle,potash and energy,but it was always silver that just looked like a bubble waiting to happen.I think its obvious now silver is the metal that runs when we lose democracy etc.I hope whatever is ahead makes everyone on the thread money to get them ahead of these fuckers running the country.

I’m counting on it. locked and loaded  Bring it on mother fuckers. 

My brother has a lovely nice stack of five silver Britannia monster boxes all bought VAT free and will be CGT free. Check mate Hunt.

Well me unfortunately….ahem well I lost all my physical in all that flooding we had last year of course… damn climate change.

 

 

 

[headrow]

Sold Fres at 582p yesterday. Ouch

Sell:618.00p Buy:620.00p  40.50p (7.00%)

 

[Lightscribe]

Just now, headrow said:

Sold Fres at 582p yesterday. Ouch

Sell:618.00p Buy:620.00p  40.50p (7.00%)

 

You listened to all the FRES naysayers 

Even @Democorruptcy is a massive FRES no.1 fan now.

[HousePriceMania]

GDP up 0.1% ( if you believe the ONS in the run up to an election or at any time )

GDP per capital  ?

 

[headrow]

Just now, Lightscribe said:

You listened to all the FRES naysayers 

Even @Democorruptcy is a massive FRES no.1 fan now.

I've done very well with it over the years by trading it , I've had 5 good bites of the cherry but this time I got spooked , I had some I'd bought at 690p and more at 500p and then even more at 450p. Now I'm wondering which price will it see next , the 690 or 450.

 

I'm sat waiting for a sell off now as I've got a six figure sum in my ISA looking for a home and some very itchy fingers