Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's a bold play in that it's historic performance is very different from it's cohort.  Past performance was rubbish (absolutely and relatively) but it's outperforming atm.  Must be a few key constituents.  Worthy of a comparative deep dive.

If i could i would probably own 15 or so of the stocks in there direct and not bother,but i cannot access most of them.I think its problem is it sells winners and buys falling knives over and over BUT that is turned on its head when the macro lifts all the boats.Its a very easy way for UK retail investors to access EM inflation loving stocks as well without over thinking it.Likely needs the dollar to turn to advance much from here below £11 was the easy buying area.

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

@Cattle Prod

What do you make of this?

 

 

Its the thing with inflation cycles,the cost of producing the things inflating also goes up.Turing this cycle is going to take much longer and mean transfer of capital from none productive to productive.

[Lightscribe]

She’s the top of her game  🏆 

[Loki]

14 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

She’s the top of her game  

She learned from the best but the pupil will never beat the master

[Transistor Man]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

@Cattle Prod

What do you make of this?

Some of this is a natural gas issue, I think.

Gas to Oil ratio is up in the Permian. 

Gas can’t be flared, and there’s too much of it.

It’s worth very little now. Oil must make up the difference. 

Edited April 29 by Transistor Man

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes agreed, I also own some. Did Woodside buy BHPs LNG assets? I believe it was looking to buy them couple years back, and even before that potential deal Woodside was already producing 6% of global LNG.

Not asking for advise of course, but can I ask if there are any other Aussie oilies that you hold for the long term?

Beach; it's a bit more random, but I do think that all the oil and gas resources in Australia WILL be exploited as the desperation for energy grows.  In the meantime, they'll push out decent dividends is my expectation.

[sancho panza]

the haemarrhoids stat is a surprise

nothing new to the basement in the main but it puts some figures we hevant seen much out there.

Once you're on the PIP I think there's no coming off to work 40 hrs a week.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/28/welcome-to-the-disability-benefits-capital-of-britain/

Welcome to the disability benefits capital of Britain

Stories like David’s are common in Knowsley, an area on the outskirts of Liverpool that is one of Labour’s safest seats.

Around 13,000 adults living here are entitled to claim PIP, the highest number in any parliamentary constituency in the UK.

One in seven adults can claim the benefit, which is an additional payment for disabled people to cover living costs and getting around.

Many here are also claiming incapacity benefits that mean they have not looked for work in years.

Knowsley is emblematic of a wider crisis across the UK. There are currently 9.4 million people who are economically inactive in Britain, with a record 2.8m of them neither in work nor looking for a job because of health reasons.

“We now spend £69bn on benefits for people of working age with a disability or health conditions,” Sunak said earlier this month. “That’s more than our entire schools budget; more than our transport budget. More than our policing.”

The number of people inactive because of long-term sickness has climbed by 850,000 since the 2020 lockdown.  

The failures of PIP

The Personal Independence Payment (PIP) was introduced by George Osborne in 2013 to replace Disability Living Allowance for people of working age.

When PIP was introduced, ministers made the case for reform by highlighting the fact that almost three-quarters of people receiving Disability Living Allowance had indefinite awards, with over half of decisions made on the basis of the claim form alone.

As chancellor, Osborne wanted to cut the benefits bill by introducing face-to-face assessments and systematic reviews.

The switch to PIP was meant to save money. Instead, the opposite happened.

PIP is a significant part of the broader health and disability benefits bill and growing quickly. Its cost is currently forecast to rise by 50pc from £18bn last year to £27bn by the end of the decade.

Today, Britons can claim PIP to help support them with living costs associated with more than 500 conditions.

This includes everything from arthritis, heart failure and cancer to eczema, acne, and non-life-threatening allergies.

There are 6,000 people who are able to claim benefits linked to long Covid, and 14 people in Britain qualify for £9,500 in PIP per year to help them live with haemorrhoids.

DWP figures show the number of overall PIP claims is up by almost a third since 2020. “Anxiety and depressive disorder” is still the single most-cited reason, with 361,000 people stating it as their “main disabling condition”.

Benefits linked to younger people’s mental health issues are more likely to be linked to autism or ADHD diagnoses, which have mushroomed in recent years as the conditions are more widely recognised.

PIP can be claimed for living costs associated with just under 50 conditions related to mental health, ranging from dyslexia and anorexia to anxiety, depression, ADHD and autism. Anxiety and depressive disorders account for around 450,000 of the 3.5m current claims.

This is a near doubling since Covid, with cases in these categories rising by around 5,000 each month.

Official data suggests the Government currently spends around £2.6bn on conditions linked to anxiety and depression alone for people of working age. That’s more than three times the amount spent on PIP for people of working age who are living with cancer.

Around half of this group receive an “enhanced” component of PIP linked to day-to-day living costs, which gives them £108.55 a week.

Some in this group also get an extra £75.75 each week to support them with the financial costs of getting around. Just over 100,000 claimants qualify for the maximum of £9,583 a year in PIP for help with everyday tasks. This is in addition to health benefits such as Universal Credit and housing support.

Edited April 29 by sancho panza

[Onsamui]

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Edited April 30 by Onsamui

[Onsamui]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

the haemarrhoids stat is a surprise

nothing new to the basement in the main but it puts some figures we hevant seen much out there.

Once you're on the PIP I think there's no coming off to work 40 hrs a week.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/28/welcome-to-the-disability-benefits-capital-of-britain/

Welcome to the disability benefits capital of Britain

Stories like David’s are common in Knowsley, an area on the outskirts of Liverpool that is one of Labour’s safest seats.

Around 13,000 adults living here are entitled to claim PIP, the highest number in any parliamentary constituency in the UK.

One in seven adults can claim the benefit, which is an additional payment for disabled people to cover living costs and getting around.

Many here are also claiming incapacity benefits that mean they have not looked for work in years.

Knowsley is emblematic of a wider crisis across the UK. There are currently 9.4 million people who are economically inactive in Britain, with a record 2.8m of them neither in work nor looking for a job because of health reasons.

“We now spend £69bn on benefits for people of working age with a disability or health conditions,” Sunak said earlier this month. “That’s more than our entire schools budget; more than our transport budget. More than our policing.”

The number of people inactive because of long-term sickness has climbed by 850,000 since the 2020 lockdown.  

The failures of PIP

The Personal Independence Payment (PIP) was introduced by George Osborne in 2013 to replace Disability Living Allowance for people of working age.

When PIP was introduced, ministers made the case for reform by highlighting the fact that almost three-quarters of people receiving Disability Living Allowance had indefinite awards, with over half of decisions made on the basis of the claim form alone.

As chancellor, Osborne wanted to cut the benefits bill by introducing face-to-face assessments and systematic reviews.

The switch to PIP was meant to save money. Instead, the opposite happened.

PIP is a significant part of the broader health and disability benefits bill and growing quickly. Its cost is currently forecast to rise by 50pc from £18bn last year to £27bn by the end of the decade.

Today, Britons can claim PIP to help support them with living costs associated with more than 500 conditions.

This includes everything from arthritis, heart failure and cancer to eczema, acne, and non-life-threatening allergies.

There are 6,000 people who are able to claim benefits linked to long Covid, and 14 people in Britain qualify for £9,500 in PIP per year to help them live with haemorrhoids.

DWP figures show the number of overall PIP claims is up by almost a third since 2020. “Anxiety and depressive disorder” is still the single most-cited reason, with 361,000 people stating it as their “main disabling condition”.

Benefits linked to younger people’s mental health issues are more likely to be linked to autism or ADHD diagnoses, which have mushroomed in recent years as the conditions are more widely recognised.

PIP can be claimed for living costs associated with just under 50 conditions related to mental health, ranging from dyslexia and anorexia to anxiety, depression, ADHD and autism. Anxiety and depressive disorders account for around 450,000 of the 3.5m current claims.

This is a near doubling since Covid, with cases in these categories rising by around 5,000 each month.

Official data suggests the Government currently spends around £2.6bn on conditions linked to anxiety and depression alone for people of working age. That’s more than three times the amount spent on PIP for people of working age who are living with cancer.

Around half of this group receive an “enhanced” component of PIP linked to day-to-day living costs, which gives them £108.55 a week.

Some in this group also get an extra £75.75 each week to support them with the financial costs of getting around. Just over 100,000 claimants qualify for the maximum of £9,583 a year in PIP for help with everyday tasks. This is in addition to health benefits such as Universal Credit and housing support.

Wonder how many are vax damaged and now unable to work?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Bradford spending 54k a DAY on sending 1500 pak......kids, to school by taxi. Eligibility up 50% in 5 years, expected to rise significantly further. Madness.

When this house of cards called the UK collapses it's going to be spectacular.

 

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Bradford spending 54k a DAY on sending 1500 pak......kids, to school by taxi. Eligibility up 50% in 5 years, expected to rise significantly further. Madness.

When this house of cards called the UK collapses it's going to be spectacular.

 

Well, it occurs to me that if was, say, a Pakistani minicab firm, I'd use my family on the council to approve me running my other families kids to school for top dollar.

trebles all round!

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Well, it occurs to me that if was, say, a Pakistani minicab firm, I'd use my family on the council to approve me running my other families kids to school for top dollar.

trebles all round!

Which is exactly what's happening. Birmingham and Leicester the same apparently.

Vibrant diversity for the win.

[MrXxxx]

21 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

morning all!

fookinghell PFC has collasped down 32% this morning, @MrXxxx honesly i didn't buy any a while back...though looking to load up NOW!

i expect @HousePriceMania will be reaching for the SICK BUCKET when he sees this...

Petrofac – shares suspended as financial pressure mounts!

It used to be a case of you buying into shares and they would drop, now you only need to talk about them and they tank:

...you are a 'jinxy'! :-)))

On a serious note, is PFC now a 'basket case'?!

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.business-live.co.uk/professional-services/banking-finance/new-products-help-hargreaves-lansdown-29083071

 

"The firm said a record number of clients had contributed to their pensions in the tax year, with the average amount subscribed up by around 22%"

Nice to see the shorts in one of the biggest shorted companies getting hit.Watch and learn indeed.I have been waiting to see pension savings increase as people decide they dont want to pay for Abduls spastic inbred kids taxi to school and his PIP.Obvious now mid to higher paid are starting to look for a way out of working.Lower going the PIP route,mid to higher deciding to fill their pensions.One of the reasons iv been buying asset managers heavily.This is pure cross market work starting to show itself.Iv avoided them,but Phoenix Group might do well from this happening as well,but i dont like their gilt exposure,if i bought them id only buy a very small holding.The platforms like Hargreaves and II through ABRDN are the ways to get leverage.Im really surprised we have not seen more mergers in the sector,M&G/ABRDN would make sense for instance.Inflation linking bennies and public sector pensions has ensured the UK is fucked,and all the cross market from that are flooding into the open.All the things we warned would happen 5 years ago.Of course rather than reform,its likely government will go after capital more and more.Taking from pensions though will be very very difficult even for Labour,so tax thresholds will likely remain their weapon of choice.

Its interesting,but one of my friends has a good job for up here £50k a year to £60k,similar job to i had,but his pension pot was only £100k at 50,hes never been one for saving,but told me last week he was up to £200k now,and was saving £40k a year in his pension now mortgage free.His wife who had no pension,but good job on £40k was also now saving £20k.Both sick of paying for bennies and wanting out.

 

 

[afly]

57 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Which is exactly what's happening. Birmingham and Leicester the same apparently.

Vibrant diversity for the win.

It's exactly what's happening 

Quote

Taxi firm ‘charging £200 a day for three mile trip to take child to school’ as council launch probe

'We can’t have transport not turning up and we can’t have transport not being reliable,' was the defence put forward by Sue Harrison, strategic director for children and families

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-city-council-taxis-school-27941041

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Bradford spending 54k a DAY on sending 1500 pak......kids, to school by taxi. Eligibility up 50% in 5 years, expected to rise significantly further. Madness.

When this house of cards called the UK collapses it's going to be spectacular.

 

Every one of those inbred cousins will also be getting PIP and one of them carers allowance.Other family will own the taxi firms doing the fleecing,Theft from English workers on biblical scale.Importing 3rd world scum has been a disaster for the UK.Obvious some kind of reckoning is coming,its only how it plays out.I saw a lass from Bradford for a few months i met in York,even back then it stunk,muslim women head to toe in black wandering around,rubbish everywhere.

I turned up once and she had painted a huge number 6 on her front wall in white gloss so delivery drivers could find her house easier  and she had one of those gates not on its hinges just resting against the wall.She had a cracking arse on her,but she had to go,i took the conjugals then i never returned.

Edited April 30 by DurhamBorn

[Alex]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its interesting,but one of my friends has a good job for up here £50k a year to £60k,similar job to i had,but his pension pot was only £100k at 50,hes never been one for saving,but told me last week he was up to £200k now,and was saving £40k a year in his pension now mortgage free.His wife who had no pension,but good job on £40k was also now saving £20k.Both sick of paying for bennies and wanting out.

And when the time is right, when enough people have fallen in, the trap will be sprung and all private pensions will be nationalised with the stroke of a pen. Easy to sell to the plebs: it's simply wealth distribution from those horrible rich people.

I'm not saying it will happen, but it's what I would do if I were a short-termist mendacious cunt, i.e. a government minister (of any creed). I've no doubt it's at least a contingency plan.

[headrow]

Good inflation

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Alex said:

And when the time is right, when enough people have fallen in, the trap will be sprung and all private pensions will be nationalised with the stroke of a pen. Easy to sell to the plebs: it's simply wealth distribution from those horrible rich people.

I'm not saying it will happen, but it's what I would do if I were a short-termist mendacious cunt, i.e. a government minister (of any creed). I've no doubt it's at least a contingency plan.

Never happen,but they could push back the retirement years,make it 5 years before state pension age etc.BUT what government will want is some of the value,so frozen thresholds,pensions in IHT,lower tax free lump sum,NI on all income etc etc.The public are right to destroy the Tories,but they will get even worse next.

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, Alex said:

And when the time is right, when enough people have fallen in, the trap will be sprung and all private pensions will be nationalised with the stroke of a pen. Easy to sell to the plebs: it's simply wealth distribution from those horrible rich people.

I'm not saying it will happen, but it's what I would do if I were a short-termist mendacious cunt, i.e. a government minister (of any creed). I've no doubt it's at least a contingency plan.

indeed.

labor think tanks here are already talking about 'green bonds' and other fuckwittery that they want to make all pensions have a certain amount in.

it will never stop until it is all brought down.

[AlfredTheLittle]

14 minutes ago, Alex said:

And when the time is right, when enough people have fallen in, the trap will be sprung and all private pensions will be nationalised with the stroke of a pen. Easy to sell to the plebs: it's simply wealth distribution from those horrible rich people.

I'm not saying it will happen, but it's what I would do if I were a short-termist mendacious cunt, i.e. a government minister (of any creed). I've no doubt it's at least a contingency plan.

State pension uses up the personal allowance, so any private pension is taxed when taken. If you don't take it, they're talking about removing iht exemption. 

Edited April 30 by AlfredTheLittle

[kibuc]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Never happen,but they could push back the retirement years,make it 5 years before state pension age etc.BUT what government will want is some of the value,so frozen thresholds,pensions in IHT,lower tax free lump sum,NI on all income etc etc.The public are right to destroy the Tories,but they will get even worse next.

Happened a few times on the continent over the previous decade, though! Poland twice, Hungary too, and that's just the nationalisation of fully private pensions.

Edit: Portugal 2010 as well? I think it was a company-run pension scheme in Portugal Telecom so perhaps not a full equivalent of SIPP, but certainly it wasn't the govt money and then it was.

Edited April 30 by kibuc

[M S E Refugee]

Interesting Gold analysis from Ross Norman.

 

 

[Harley]

22 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

So nice to get the band back together.  Interesting speculation by Dominic about the driver behind the gold price move being a possible massive put and what could happen when that expires.  Goes against the narrative of central bank buying (i e. that was a thing but not at these prices).

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Happened a few times on the continent over the previous decade, though! Poland twice, Hungary too, and that's just the nationalisation of fully private pensions.

Edit: Portugal 2010 as well? I think it was a company-run pension scheme in Portugal Telecom so perhaps not a full equivalent of SIPP, but certainly it wasn't the govt money and then it was.

I posted all this years ago in what must now be an archived thread.  Too soon?  But then the counter positioning takes time!