Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Mandalorian]

9 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

It's not that this kinda thing doesn't worry me...but surely, surely if it gets to that kind of situation they cut public sector pensions first?  How on earth do you begin to justify taking private pensions when the value of their savings is dwarfed by those with final-salary public sector pensions?

Because socialist regimes look after the inner party members and fuck everyone else.

Yes.  We do live in a broadly socialist regime.  You think the UK is capitalist?

[Eventually Right]

19 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Because socialist regimes look after the inner party members and fuck everyone else.

Yes.  We do live in a broadly socialist regime.  You think the UK is capitalist?

I just think that even the frog in slowly boiling water, that makes up UK private sector pension savers, would finally react to that-having 20-40 years worth of pension savings taken, whilst every retired cop/doctor/council jobsworth is protected?

If things get that extreme, we're at the point of wanting gold coins buried somewhere safe, and a decent supply of canned goods.

[Errol]

1 minute ago, Eventually Right said:

If things get that extreme, we're at the point of wanting gold coins buried somewhere safe, and a decent supply of canned goods.

This should already be taken care of.

[dnb24]

3 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

I just think that even the frog in slowly boiling water, that makes up UK private sector pension savers, would finally react to that-having 20-40 years worth of pension savings taken, whilst every retired cop/doctor/council jobsworth is protected?

If things get that extreme, we're at the point of wanting gold coins buried somewhere safe, and a decent supply of canned goods.

Poland 2013/14- private pensions holding govt bonds- forcibly transferred over- ie nationalised- government now owns its own debt- reduces national debt by value of bonds transferred- still could be worse at least they “only” took the bonds. Cyprus 2012/13- the IMF and ECB took anything over €100k from your bank account to “bail out” the banks/govt.

People carried on as usual. 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

And when the time is right, when enough people have fallen in, the trap will be sprung and all private pensions will be nationalised with the stroke of a pen. Easy to sell to the plebs: it's simply wealth distribution from those horrible rich people.

Happened in Argentina in 2008, at the time the claimed justification was to protect the savers from turmoil in financial markets. A real cynic might even argue that the Trussonomics-budget shenanigans by the BoE were a dry-run for how a suitable enabling crisis could be drummed up. 

https://archive.ph/fL4sa

[PETR4]

Nice video on deglobalisation and on who the winners and losers maybe.

Touches on several thread themes 22m 19s.

[Axeman123]

A Telegraph opinion piece setting out several pension ideas we have predicted on here:

Turbo-charge pensions to break our addiction to immigration-fuelled growth

Interestingly it tries to link pensions to immigration, and it actually makes sense:

Quote

A services-led economy with low savings, investment and productivity has only one remaining raw material to generate economic growth – namely labour. With a low birth rate, this means more immigration; and not surprisingly, gross flows to the UK closely track the two distinct pre and post-bubble periods, with the immigration surge following the latter leaving UK economic growth and tax revenues now more dependent on immigration than all of our European peers.

This is why targeting immigration levels is not only futile but also circular since the UK economy’s structural dependence on immigration is merely a symptom, mainly (but not entirely) of the shortfall in savings and investment.

We must instead go to a root cause and break the UK’s addiction to immigration-led growth by a wholesale policy shift to building a savings and investment-led economy that is less dependent on it.

Cynically I would say this is just an attempt to link a popular idea (fewer wogs coming in) with an unpopular one. Giving the benefit of the doubt this could simply be the unsustainability of current levels of discontent around immigration starting to sink in.

A real shocker in the recommendations, a total non-starter that would probably rocket unemployment levels:

Quote

This would entail prompt implementation of policies that include:

– A step change in employers’ contributions to DC auto enrolment to 9pc+ from the current pitiful level of 3pc. This would bring total contributions to the 15-20pc range, still barely adequate to meet future generations’ retirement needs.

Further on we get to the future direction we predicted:

Quote

– Pool all DC contributions into a single, professionally managed retirement savings fund (“GB Savings”), including portable individual “units” to enable ease of mobility, with the scale, time horizon and diversification to begin restoring the UK’s supply of long-term equity and risk capital.

For the enlarged pool of DC funds, the allocation of say 80pc can be self-directed as at present, with 20pc to be streamed for investment in UK corporate assets, including infrastructure.

– For the remaining DB pension funds, retention of their tax privileges should be contingent on investing at least 20pc  in UK corporate assets, since UK taxpayers should not be providing an unlimited subsidy to invest the country’s savings abroad.

– Kick-start the creation of a new Sovereign Wealth Fund (initially under UKGI/British Business Bank, proven stewards of UK national assets) with the proceeds from the sale of NatWest shares plus half of the annual North Sea oil windfall tax, both of which belong to the nation and should therefore not end up as drops in the bucket of government spending.

– The new wealth fund would deploy its capital initially into smaller UK listed companies, a sector which used to be a vibrant source of ‘tomorrow’s winners’ but which has been heavily hit by the evaporation of long-term risk capital.

The sovereign wealth fund part is a scam IMO, how can a bankrupt nation have wealth to hoard? The sale of Natwest shares and the dwindling proceeds of northsea oil windfall taxes for example?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/turbo-charge-pensions-break-addiction-100000186.html

[MrFanciful]

Anyone know why gold is being handled like a leper child today?

[JMD]

On 29/04/2024 at 12:02, DoINeedOne said:

I'd really like to hear Dominic Frisby's new song mentioned in that podcast. Apparently it's his most controversial...   'F**k you, I'm Millwall'. 

It's inspired by the below event, but I'm not sure what the content/theme of the song is. Frisby is apparently performing the song in clubs but is reluctant to make a video for fear of 'Rushdie' reprisals.    ...Has anyone heard the song or perhaps know where to get a bootleg download copy?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-bridge-terror-attack-f-k-fuck-you-i-m-millwall-hero-roy-larner-football-fan-lion-of-london-bridge-borough-market-terrorists-knives-bare-hands-fists-saved-lives-fought-back-single-handed-george-cross-a7775246.html

 

 

 

[AWW]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

the haemarrhoids stat is a surprise

nothing new to the basement in the main but it puts some figures we hevant seen much out there.

Once you're on the PIP I think there's no coming off to work 40 hrs a week.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/28/welcome-to-the-disability-benefits-capital-of-britain/

Welcome to the disability benefits capital of Britain

Stories like David’s are common in Knowsley, an area on the outskirts of Liverpool that is one of Labour’s safest seats.

Around 13,000 adults living here are entitled to claim PIP, the highest number in any parliamentary constituency in the UK.

One in seven adults can claim the benefit, which is an additional payment for disabled people to cover living costs and getting around.

Many here are also claiming incapacity benefits that mean they have not looked for work in years.

Knowsley is emblematic of a wider crisis across the UK. There are currently 9.4 million people who are economically inactive in Britain, with a record 2.8m of them neither in work nor looking for a job because of health reasons.

“We now spend £69bn on benefits for people of working age with a disability or health conditions,” Sunak said earlier this month. “That’s more than our entire schools budget; more than our transport budget. More than our policing.”

The number of people inactive because of long-term sickness has climbed by 850,000 since the 2020 lockdown.  

The failures of PIP

The Personal Independence Payment (PIP) was introduced by George Osborne in 2013 to replace Disability Living Allowance for people of working age.

When PIP was introduced, ministers made the case for reform by highlighting the fact that almost three-quarters of people receiving Disability Living Allowance had indefinite awards, with over half of decisions made on the basis of the claim form alone.

As chancellor, Osborne wanted to cut the benefits bill by introducing face-to-face assessments and systematic reviews.

The switch to PIP was meant to save money. Instead, the opposite happened.

PIP is a significant part of the broader health and disability benefits bill and growing quickly. Its cost is currently forecast to rise by 50pc from £18bn last year to £27bn by the end of the decade.

Today, Britons can claim PIP to help support them with living costs associated with more than 500 conditions.

This includes everything from arthritis, heart failure and cancer to eczema, acne, and non-life-threatening allergies.

There are 6,000 people who are able to claim benefits linked to long Covid, and 14 people in Britain qualify for £9,500 in PIP per year to help them live with haemorrhoids.

DWP figures show the number of overall PIP claims is up by almost a third since 2020. “Anxiety and depressive disorder” is still the single most-cited reason, with 361,000 people stating it as their “main disabling condition”.

Benefits linked to younger people’s mental health issues are more likely to be linked to autism or ADHD diagnoses, which have mushroomed in recent years as the conditions are more widely recognised.

PIP can be claimed for living costs associated with just under 50 conditions related to mental health, ranging from dyslexia and anorexia to anxiety, depression, ADHD and autism. Anxiety and depressive disorders account for around 450,000 of the 3.5m current claims.

This is a near doubling since Covid, with cases in these categories rising by around 5,000 each month.

Official data suggests the Government currently spends around £2.6bn on conditions linked to anxiety and depression alone for people of working age. That’s more than three times the amount spent on PIP for people of working age who are living with cancer.

Around half of this group receive an “enhanced” component of PIP linked to day-to-day living costs, which gives them £108.55 a week.

Some in this group also get an extra £75.75 each week to support them with the financial costs of getting around. Just over 100,000 claimants qualify for the maximum of £9,583 a year in PIP for help with everyday tasks. This is in addition to health benefits such as Universal Credit and housing support.

The usual outlets are already laying the ground for this being nasty people stealing money from those who desperately need it: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4n1pnx5854o

Interesting how they never run stories from people who work, explaining that the high tax burden on the working impacts their quality of life.

[Axeman123]

34 minutes ago, MrFanciful said:

Anyone know why gold is being handled like a leper child today?

Month end plus a fed FOMC meeting tomorow, both of which often include short-lived slams.

Shanghai prices haven't dropped so I see this as noise.

If anything a pullback will reset sentiment and prepare the ground for a new leg up. Things were a bit too heated at 2400+.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

TEF Brasil divvies are fun. Six different batches arrived today. I guess there are tax implications in Brazil and who wants to pay tax when their capital is returned to them?

[reformed nice guy]

32 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

TEF Brasil divvies are fun. Six different batches arrived today. I guess there are tax implications in Brazil and who wants to pay tax when their capital is returned to them?

The board counted the the number of birds that passed during the AGM to determine the divi distribution. Picture above. Chairman is on the highest branch

[Axeman123]

Per Twitter Shanghai gold exchange is now closed Wednesday through Sunday, so western banks have that as a window to slam PM prices. 

Monday should be fun.

https://twitter.com/DavidLe76335983/status/1785303121528226094

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[janch]

The cost of housing went up more than expected in the US:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/affordabiity-crisis-worsens-us-home-prices-soar-near-record-high-feb

Luckily wages also rose to help pay for it but this caused a drop in stocks/bonds:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-slammed-after-q1-employment-costs-rise-more-highest-forecast

[Long time lurking]

Well that did not last long 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

43 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Interesting he is getting so much exposure.

[Noallegiance]

6 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Interesting he is getting so much exposure.

Bloke completely misses a few important points that mean the masses clinging to his words are still deluded and miseducated.

[M S E Refugee]

12 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Interesting he is getting so much exposure.

There's something off about him.

I get heavy Socialist vibes off the guy, he's made a shit ton of money and now feels guilty.

When these people come from nowhere and receive loads of airtime I think there's a good chance the nudge unit are behind him.

[Alifelessbinary]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Bloke completely misses a few important points that mean the masses clinging to his words are still deluded and miseducated.

Like any commentator he has his favourite points and I don’t necessarily agree with all his  comments.

Where I do agree is that inequality is causing the hollowing out of the middle classes, as we are getting to a stage where only those with help from rich relatives can buy a house.

Anyone who can’t get on the housing ladder will effectively live in servitude, as the high rent will strip them of any chance to save a deposit and the removal of pensions will mean they will need to work until they die.

While a wealth tax is required, I just can’t see it happening. While I don’t mind the principle you can imagine it being set at 1% on £5m but it will quickly be expanded to encompass all working people.

[Errol]

 

[BurntBread]

30 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

Where I do agree is that inequality is causing the hollowing out of the middle classes

Yes, inequality is the problem ... there's not enough of it. It doesn't matter how hard you work, it's almost impossible to generate sufficient inequality from that to maintain the motive.

The super-rich are something else. Many, maybe all, of them parasitise economies, but that has always been so. The alternative view is that it is not the degree of parasitism that is the biggest problem now, but the lack of blood: the generated wealth on which they feed. 

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Yes, inequality is the problem ... there's not enough of it. It doesn't matter how hard you work, it's almost impossible to generate sufficient inequality from that to maintain the motive.

The super-rich are something else. Many, maybe all, of them parasitise economies, but that has always been so. The alternative view is that it is not the degree of parasitism that is the biggest problem now, but the lack of blood: the generated wealth on which they feed. 

Equality of effort doesn't get enough attention.

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

There's something off about him.

I get heavy Socialist vibes off the guy, he's made a shit ton of money and now feels guilty.

When these people come from nowhere and receive loads of airtime I think there's a good chance the nudge unit are behind him.

Glad I am not the only one getting that impression.