Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[ashestoashes]

56 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Gary Stevenson is a bright guy with a conscience. He studied at LSE then did a masters in economics at Oxford after his career as a trader working in the City. The thing that sounds off key is the fundamental inconsistency. He is a physical manifestation of cognitive dissonance. While he understands the shapes and flows of markets and can position himself to benefit from them, he feels simultaneously unworthy and an imposter. Nick Leeson syndrome. He is also dragging his class guilt with him as he goes. I like the guy but find him fundamentally conflicted. He would be utterly confused between Blair and Corbyn: the one he believes in and the other he believes he should believe in. 

is it not you guys imposing class guilt on him, I've worked with traders and agree with what he says in that they are immoral, ultra competitive and it makes for an insane world, that's what he talks about and gives as his reason for escaping it to benefit society in some way.

[sancho panza]

49 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Gary Stevenson is a bright guy with a conscience. He studied at LSE then did a masters in economics at Oxford after his career as a trader working in the City. The thing that sounds off key is the fundamental inconsistency. He is a physical manifestation of cognitive dissonance. While he understands the shapes and flows of markets and can position himself to benefit from them, he feels simultaneously unworthy and an imposter. Nick Leeson syndrome. He is also dragging his class guilt with him as he goes. I like the guy but find him fundamentally conflicted. He would be utterly confused between Blair and Corbyn: the one he believes in and the other he believes he should believe in. 

I've watcvhde the video and it was interesting to see him talk about his rise.fair enoguh he did well and I think needs applauding for sacking it before the pursuit of wealth devoured his pusuti oif happiness(a common theme in my limited expereince of the indsutry)

WHere I take issue with the guy is when he talks about wealth inequality but dodges the main cause-govt policies-

be it infaltion mismeasurement,aggressively opend borders etc etc,the govts of most western nations are the main culprits who've hollowed out the middle calses.

critisizing the rich for getting richer is like blaming an alcie for drinking the offie dry when you lockhim in it.

if labour had a legitimate way of raising their wages that would be the ideal way to redistribute,

with all these bleeding heart lefty types,the biggest rproblems is they want more rules and more immigration,both of which mitigate against start up entrpreneuairal endeavorus and workers trying to price their labour higher.

the solution ot wealth inequality in the west is to stop bailing out banks,restrict immigration and not tax people so much.

he also fails to identify that the banks he worked in weere working within a socilist framework that is expressly set up to perpetuate and reinforce wealth inequality.

I'll shut up.

intersting guy.

[ashestoashes]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think he is being promoted to discredit capitalism, he could be used to promote a different kind of capitalism, a fairer and more equitable version, perhaps something like Klaus's stakeholder capitalism.

 

what we have isn't capitalism

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Robin R44 - we had a thread on them...

Dead man walking if flying in one of those things

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-robinson-helicopters/

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/type/R44

 

Edited April 30 by Virgil Caine

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

what we have isn't capitalism

Correct, but trying telling that to a woke lefty.

[ashestoashes]

the reason that there's no middle class is because we're moving back to a feudal society where there are rulers and serfs and a technical elite class that services the rulers, the middle class was a short lived aberration

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

the reason that there's no middle class is because we're moving back to a feudal society where there are rulers and serfs and a technical elite class that services the rulers, the middle class was a short lived aberration

without the middle class, you get no innovation and productivity.  You also get no social stability - revolutions/coups are baked into a feudal system.

 

Problem is the elite are so fucking stupid they think that having 90% of the cake is not enough - they want 99%, even though it means their grandkids will meet Madame Guillotine.

[Lightscribe]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've watcvhde the video and it was interesting to see him talk about his rise.fair enoguh he did well and I think needs applauding for sacking it before the pursuit of wealth devoured his pusuti oif happiness(a common theme in my limited expereince of the indsutry)

WHere I take issue with the guy is when he talks about wealth inequality but dodges the main cause-govt policies-

be it infaltion mismeasurement,aggressively opend borders etc etc,the govts of most western nations are the main culprits who've hollowed out the middle calses.

critisizing the rich for getting richer is like blaming an alcie for drinking the offie dry when you lockhim in it.

if labour had a legitimate way of raising their wages that would be the ideal way to redistribute,

with all these bleeding heart lefty types,the biggest rproblems is they want more rules and more immigration,both of which mitigate against start up entrpreneuairal endeavorus and workers trying to price their labour higher.

the solution ot wealth inequality in the west is to stop bailing out banks,restrict immigration and not tax people so much.

he also fails to identify that the banks he worked in weere working within a socilist framework that is expressly set up to perpetuate and reinforce wealth inequality.

I'll shut up.

intersting guy.

Yeah I watched his interview a few years ago, some details now are bit sketchy for me.

Street boy made good overview and the way he got in was interesting made me remember a book I read, city boys.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cityboy-Beer-Loathing-Square-Mile/dp/0755346181?dplnkId=ee09b3d5-2dc0-4f21-a357-e15f795a1e29&nodl=1

Later half of the interview veers off into leftism and he tends to miss the point. 

He made most of the trade money and name for himself betting that rates wouldn’t rise, when other economists traded that they would.

That tactic was correct in the disinflation cycle, it was a one way direction, print more money, drop rates further, import more labour, expanding intensive farming, export more manufacturing, voila ever cheaper goods and food.

He would have lost his pants in the last 4 years however (like many pension funds) and I’m not sure he understands the basis of that beyond his statistical math skills.

He blames the bankers and elites wanting it all, and buying your own house in sticking two fingers up to the bankers. Problem is that if you’ve bought a high LTV house these last couple of years in the south then the banksters have already won!

He then veers of saying that capitalism is widening the gulf between rich a poor. It’s not capitalism doing that it’s the state. By edging towards socialism stripping out competitive markets and the restriction of natural growth of companies to bring prosperity (profit sharing, jobs, reinvestment infrastructure) through over taxation to pay for the country’s, public sector and welfare debt.

Basically he needs to broaden his horizon on who’s truly to blame, as it’s happening across the whole of the western world. It’s almost like the global leaders are singing from the same hymn sheet.

Edited May 1 by Lightscribe

[sleepwello'nights]

38 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

 

He blames the bankers and elites wanting it all, and buying your own house in sticking two fingers up to the bankers. Problem is that if you’ve bought a high LTV house these last couple of years in the south then the banksters have already won!

He then veers of saying that capitalism is widening the gulf between rich a poor. It’s not capitalism doing that it’s the state. By edging towards socialism stripping out competitive markets and the restriction of natural growth of companies to bring prosperity (profit sharing, jobs, reinvestment infrastructure) through over taxation to pay for the country’s, public sector and welfare debt.

 

I agree your analysis better explains the cause of the decline of our economy and the social impact it is causing. I'm still puzzled that we are criticising him for making an effort to bring attention to the part traders play. Maybe he's blaming the wrong party, is he. Aren't the bankers and money men the paymasters of our politicians?

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I agree your analysis better explains the cause of the decline of our economy and the social impact it is causing. I'm still puzzled that we are criticising him for making an effort to bring attention to the part traders play. Maybe he's blaming the wrong party, is he. Aren't the bankers and money men the paymasters of our politicians?

 

He is beloved by some pretty rancid characters.

I put Gary Stevenson in the useful idiot category.

 

[sleepwello'nights]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

He is beloved by some pretty rancid characters.

I put Gary Stevenson in the useful idiot category.

 

I'll watch the videos later. I expect you're correct that his opinion is being used as a distraction opportunity by the cleverer machievellians. 

[M S E Refugee]

5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I'll watch the videos later. I expect you're correct that his opinion is being used as a distraction opportunity by the cleverer machievellians. 

There's another video of him on Novara media with Aaron Bastani.

He seems to be the Woke left's favourite trader.

[Errol]

8 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

the reason that there's no middle class is because we're moving back to a feudal society where there are rulers and serfs and a technical elite class that services the rulers, the middle class was a short lived aberration

Neo feudalism.

[ashestoashes]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

without the middle class, you get no innovation and productivity.  You also get no social stability - revolutions/coups are baked into a feudal system.

 

Problem is the elite are so fucking stupid they think that having 90% of the cake is not enough - they want 99%, even though it means their grandkids will meet Madame Guillotine.

a lot of the middle class are in jobs that are going to disappear will be good to see them innovate their way out of that

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

He then veers of saying that capitalism is widening the gulf between rich a poor. It’s not capitalism doing that it’s the state. By edging towards socialism stripping out competitive markets and the restriction of natural growth of companies to bring prosperity (profit sharing, jobs, reinvestment infrastructure) through over taxation to pay for the country’s, public sector and welfare debt.

But by blaming socialism or even the fact we are ‘edging towards socialism’ they have won. You have picked a side that’s what they want….

What we are seeing is a million miles away from socialism it’s corruption and they make us blame idealist political theories when the issue is those in charge are self serving. The ideals have died…this is just them v us.

The state might be doing this but who is the state….it’s not us or ‘the working man’.

I do have an idealistic view of socialism…NHS, working men down the pub collectively asking for more than 10p a day from the fat factory owner etc….and I acknowledge that  

The common man owing a share of an industry he builds is an ideal to motivate industry and hard work….socialism, but I appreciate it doesn’t work due to inefficiency, corruption, incompetence and greed of those in charge. Even if they are a select few from the working class…power corrupts. My council is a great example of that 🤦🏻‍♂️

Capitalism is an ideal…businesses owned privately for efficiency of markets, generating wealth and trickle down benefits. But it doesn’t work due to cronyism, Eton elites, corruption and greed of those in charge.

Christianity…hey, shouldn’t we all be nice to each other, help those in need and not discriminate against other religions…nah, fuck that nail him to a tree….I want that castle, big cathedrals, gold crown etc so let’s go on crusades and set up some factions so we can all cream off the top and some of us can kiddie fiddle🙏🏻🤦🏻‍♂️

Its not that the ideals or theories are wrong is those in charge

We keep harping on about ‘lefties’ at the BBC or Tory party….the Eton establishment must be pissing themselves laughing. “You never guess what chaps…we’ve got them blaming the theory of working man for wanting his fair share”

I don’t advocate the true left nor the true right but respect their ideals.

Those I despise are TPTB who have made us lose pure ideals and indeed have made the common voter translate that into blaming the theoretical ideals….

So I don’t blame socialism nor capitalism because it’s the fuckers in charge (red, blue, yellow) and their puppet masters we need to aim our venom at. They will take it all and all we are seeing at the moment is the order in which they are taking it.

I think I have moved from idealistic left….but not right. Leaves me in a wilderness, maybe anarchy? 

NB…having started listening to the 2nd video though I take your point. They start it by blaming capitalism….and if that’s their point they should be blaming socialism. I am saying they should be blaming neither. 

Edited May 1 by Pip321

[DoINeedOne]

 

Just some random bits of info from a newsletter I read that I found interesting

[Harley]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've watcvhde the video and it was interesting to see him talk about his rise.fair enoguh he did well and I think needs applauding for sacking it before the pursuit of wealth devoured his pusuti oif happiness(a common theme in my limited expereince of the indsutry)

WHere I take issue with the guy is when he talks about wealth inequality but dodges the main cause-govt policies-

be it infaltion mismeasurement,aggressively opend borders etc etc,the govts of most western nations are the main culprits who've hollowed out the middle calses.

critisizing the rich for getting richer is like blaming an alcie for drinking the offie dry when you lockhim in it.

if labour had a legitimate way of raising their wages that would be the ideal way to redistribute,

with all these bleeding heart lefty types,the biggest rproblems is they want more rules and more immigration,both of which mitigate against start up entrpreneuairal endeavorus and workers trying to price their labour higher.

the solution ot wealth inequality in the west is to stop bailing out banks,restrict immigration and not tax people so much.

he also fails to identify that the banks he worked in weere working within a socilist framework that is expressly set up to perpetuate and reinforce wealth inequality.

I'll shut up.

intersting guy.

Bet he must still be reeling from that, like "what the feck just happened?"! 

[ThoughtCriminal]

15 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

There's something off about him.

I get heavy Socialist vibes off the guy, he's made a shit ton of money and now feels guilty.

When these people come from nowhere and receive loads of airtime I think there's a good chance the nudge unit are behind him.

Someone should send him my magic link.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/voluntary-payments-donations-to-government

"So you think rich people should be paying more. You're rich, so you're obviously voluntarily paying more to the government, right? RIGHT?"

An actual journalist would have asked him that.

Fucking showboating cunt.

[BurntBread]

14 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Someone should send him my magic link.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/voluntary-payments-donations-to-government

"So you think rich people should be paying more. You're rich, so you're obviously voluntarily paying more to the government, right? RIGHT?"

An actual journalist would have asked him that.

Fucking showboating cunt.

In a similar vein, I have a very woke friend who was loudly moaning about Brexit back in 2017 saying something like, "I don't want to be part of a country that would do such such a thing."

When I asked him though, it turned out he didn't want to go through the process of becoming a citizen of somewhere else, so I helpfully suggested that he could just hand in his passport and become stateless.

He's never mentioned it again.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 hours ago, Libspero said:

You might be interested to read the original text and see what the license explicitly does not cover.

https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/932461/download?inline

TLDR:  Any offloading of cargo or transactions of crude oil.   It’s basically just a safety amendment.

Any transactions are explicitly excluded.

All of those entities are processing transactions banned under paragraph c. The US government KNOWS they are. This is just turning a blind eye to it.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I agree your analysis better explains the cause of the decline of our economy and the social impact it is causing. I'm still puzzled that we are criticising him for making an effort to bring attention to the part traders play. Maybe he's blaming the wrong party, is he. Aren't the bankers and money men the paymasters of our politicians?

The banksters are mainly self serving cocaine fueled egotistical useful idiots fueled by their own self indulgence. They ride the trends and short/long just enough to fulfil their margins for their next bonuses to fund their expense lifestyles, frivolities and hookers.

The round table think tank groups on the other hand, in conjunction with the big banks, do indeed control the strings of political policy.

Edited May 1 by Lightscribe

[Virgil Caine]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

There's another video of him on Novara media with Aaron Bastani.

He seems to be the Woke left's favourite trader.

His view that the U.K. has a major problem with rising inequality between the vast mass of the population and a tiny elite is not exactly news nor that ultra cheap money has basically helped accelerate that process. Nor is it exactly a stunning revelation that city institutions and their employees are generally an amoral bunch whose activities are often detrimental to wider society. It was being discussed on TOS before Stevenson even started work as a trader. My problem is that his solutions don’t address fundamental issues of low economic growth and a lack of productivity in the wider economy. It is just another argument for dividing up wealth from a shrinking economic cake. In particular his sort of solutions would not impact the richest members of the elite as most of their money is out of the reach of any government mandated redistribution. As a consequence my suspicion is it is just a cover story for another state grab at whatever wealth still remains in the hands of the middle classes. My guess that is one of the reasons the likes of the Guardian etc are always promoting him. I also note that he not only made a pile facilitating the huge social divide he now purports to despise but that he is still mining that seam as an author. What really grates is that his entire time at Citi was basically funded by the ultra cheap money era post the 2008 GFC where the cost of the bailout was being dumped on ordinary taxpayers. If capitalism had really operated as it is supposed to he would not have had that job at all as most of the firms like Citi would have gone to the wall. The fact he is a working class boy who fell into financial sin in the City of London but later repented and  found God does not really cut much ice with me.

Edited May 1 by Virgil Caine

[AWW]

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

I don't think there's been Oxford educated types in trading for decades.

Sure, there'll be smart people whive been to Oxford. But they suree won't be Oxford types.

You will find plenty of Oxbridge grads working in the quant teams.

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

the reason that there's no middle class is because we're moving back to a feudal society where there are rulers and serfs and a technical elite class that services the rulers, the middle class was a short lived aberration

We need a new labour style movement,  The prospect of communism and the removal of the British establishment focus the greedy pigs minds for a few decades, then they deregulated their bankers....

[spygirl]

13 minutes ago, AWW said:

You will find plenty of Oxbridge grads working in the quant teams.

You will.

But they wont be Oxford types., as implied by Gazza.