Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Fair play but that isn't something he should be telling anyone.

He was advising me to do the same. You need to tell someone you trust if the worst happens to you suddenly so the stash can be divided up between your kids, wife, nieces and nephews etc.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, Joncrete Cungle said:

He was advising me to do the same. You need to tell someone you trust if the worst happens to you suddenly so the stash can be divided up between your kids, wife, nieces and nephews etc.

I get that. That person you trust wouldn't usually be a work colleague. IIRC you work in farming so your closest colleague may be closer than you would expect in other work environments.

[sleepwello'nights]

On 27/04/2024 at 10:35, GTM said:

Not one journalist dared ask why his missus voluntarily decided to pay millions more in tax than she otherwise could have done, to allow him to keep his £160K job.

 

What was the post about?  ***Sorry when I read further I see my question has already been answered. 

 

Edited April 28 by sleepwello'nights

[Ash4781b]

I missed that Starmer has locked in the pension triple lock. To go hand in hand that gives to me a 99% chance benefits will lock in to inflation uplifts. In addition locking in the tax rises (already some lock in with frozen personal allowances) as they won’t have the guts to tackle public spending. Whether Labour pickup the national insurance trend to zero will be interesting as is long term on state pension. Presumably another massive theft coming further out by increasing age can draw or means testing it. 
 

Presumably we’ll head steaming towards a national living wage around £15-£20 an hour maybe £30k or something by 2027/8 or something mad. Higher income tax here we come!

Edited April 28 by Ash4781b

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Robot AI enforcers will keep order.

The issue is that protesters could soon have the same technology. Widespread use of drones will need a lot of production and make it much harder to screen and monitor all the employees, innevitably leading to proliferation. The prospect of any nutter launching an AI drone swarm impervious to EW blocking against me would terrify me as a politician, or even as a high profile figure or celebrity. They would have to live in bunkers forever.

The IRA were famous for improvising weapons, like a recoiless rifle that fired an armour-piercing warhead made from a baked bean tin full of centex, and used packs of digestive biscuits wrapped in a tea towel as a counter shot. AIUI It was widely held that design elements indicated people involved in making such weapons for licensed factories in Ireland had been involved in the design.

https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2014/10/13/iras-recoilless-improvised-grenade-launcher/

 

[JREWING]

Iceberg ahead capt?

https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/dtc

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Iceberg ahead capt?

https://www.dtcc.com/about/businesses-and-subsidiaries/dtc

Had a shit fit when I saw bonds but then saw it is corporate bonds

Bitcucks get what they deserve 

[Loki]

Here is the official link

https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2024/4/26/B20002-24.pdf

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

The issue is that protesters could soon have the same technology. Widespread use of drones will need a lot of production and make it much harder to screen and monitor all the employees, innevitably leading to proliferation. The prospect of any nutter launching an AI drone swarm impervious to EW blocking against me would terrify me as a politician, or even as a high profile figure or celebrity. They would have to live in bunkers forever.

The IRA were famous for improvising weapons, like a recoiless rifle that fired an armour-piercing warhead made from a baked bean tin full of centex, and used packs of digestive biscuits wrapped in a tea towel as a counter shot. AIUI It was widely held that design elements indicated people involved in making such weapons for licensed factories in Ireland had been involved in the design.

https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2014/10/13/iras-recoilless-improvised-grenade-launcher/

 

Shades of the John Whiscombe recoilless spring air rifles of the 80's and 90's. Minus the armour piercing warhead.

[Errol]

 

[Mandalorian]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Apparently this was in the print edition of the DM.

Looks like we're getting ready to rumble. 

@Joncrete Cungle and anyone else, keep us posted on your market top indicators .

Articles like this are early stage bull indicators imho.

Daily Mail 26/4/24

Is it time to cash in on the GOLD RUSH? Mining stocks could provide a glittering opportunity

But in recent months thousands of customers at the US cash-and-carry giant Costco have been putting one-ounce bullion bars into their trolleys.

They are spending as much as $200m a month, according to Wells Fargo, a bank set up to handle cash flows from the 1849 gold rush.

Hedge funds and central banks in China, Turkey and other nations are also buying, driving up the price of the metal over the past six months by 20 per cent to $2,360.

Gold appears to have assumed its age-old role as a safe haven and a store of value.

So optimistic are the forecasts for further price increases that this latter day gold rush seems like a glittering opportunity.

BHP's £31billion bid for Anglo-American launched this week also hints at the likelihood of more merger and acquisition fun in the metal mining industry.

Citigroup predicts that bullion will 'shine bright like a diamond', rising to $3,000 within six to 18 months.

Goldman Sachs estimates a price of $2,700 by Christmas, although, even at this level, gold would still be below its record high of June 1980 in real terms. As the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, the price hit $850, the equivalent of $3,180 today.

These estimates are based on concern about mounting unrest in the Middle East – and the view that inflation has yet to be quashed, especially given the spiral in US government debt. Evy Hambro, joint manager of the BlackRock World Mining trust and BlackRock Gold and General fund, highlights a shift in investors' preferences.

Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) hold bullion on your behalf. Broker Interactive Investor recommends the iShares Physical Gold ETF in which I have a small amount of money.

Gold mining stocks could be worth a bet: the surge in the price of this metal means that these companies' steep production costs should be covered.

Or time to get out.

Once the proles are being informed, the smart money is looking for the exit.

13 hours ago, desertorchid said:

There are other currencies that are also weak links in the chain  . The Thai Baht is another good example that looks ready to keel over. Could there be another Asian financial crisis?. Any country that is trying to keep rates lower than the FED are facing their day of reckoning when the big players twig on USD higher rates may be here to stay

I keep saying it.  Never bet against the United States.

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Have any high-rollers on here thought about buying Gold Britannia's or Sovereigns to supplement their Pension?

If I had bought 1 Sovereign per month all my working career I would have amassed 420 Sovereigns worth £201,450.59, all CGT free.

 

And off the grid.

[montecristo]

3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

I missed that Starmer has locked in the pension triple lock. To go hand in hand that gives to me a 99% chance benefits will lock in to inflation uplifts. In addition locking in the tax rises (already some lock in with frozen personal allowances) as they won’t have the guts to tackle public spending. Whether Labour pickup the national insurance trend to zero will be interesting as is long term on state pension. Presumably another massive theft coming further out by increasing age can draw or means testing it. 
 

Presumably we’ll head steaming towards a national living wage around £15-£20 an hour maybe £30k or something by 2027/8 or something mad. Higher income tax here we come!

I think the 10 years change advance notice of any change has been reinforce by the waspi ruling.  Freezing the tax threshold is how they intend to tax pensioners more.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/women-state-pensions-waspi-key-facts-know/

[Ash4781b]

31 minutes ago, montecristo said:

I think the 10 years change advance notice of any change has been reinforce by the waspi ruling.  Freezing the tax threshold is how they intend to tax pensioners more.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/women-state-pensions-waspi-key-facts-know/

Yeah that’s a point. It will make BTL pointless or more likely mass tax evasion 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

I keep saying it.  Never bet against the United States.

Never is a long time…never say never.😉

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Pip321 said:

So a Tory has switch camps.

Every month or so (probably around my period😆) I have a rant about the left/right true politics died decades ago now it’s just career politicians feathering their own nest then fucking off to the dinner circuit or a job as adviser at some city firm when they ‘retire’  

Anyhoo….I see some politicians seem to be able to alter their whole political belief system that differentiates capitalism/socialism and just change the colour of their tie.

To be fair this used to happen in the old days when a politician ‘saw the light’ and shifted sides….but I suspect this move is because he wants to stay an MP after the next general election.😂

#vote none of the above

If I saw a guy in Durham running for office for the “shag the decent birds on bennies” party….

with the slogan “we paid for them so we should shag them”

I may have to decide whether that truly encapsulated my political beliefs but it would certainly get my vote before red, blue or that orange/yellow one we have forgotten about. 😆😆

It's even possible to make a political success of changing parties. Churchill began politics as a Conservative MP, then became a Liberal MP for 20 years, between 1904-1924. He then switched back to being a Conservative.

Interestingly, during his time as a Liberal, Churchill was one of the main proponents of LVT. The bill was actually passed into law, however its implementation was delayed by WW11 and was repealed shortly after. I wonder what could have been? ...I know, I know it's an unpopular(evil?) wealth tax, its just that if - or once - we do get CBDCs, I'm pretty certain that wealth taxes will be a crucial part of that 'central-bank-digital-control' tool for the planned monetary reset/debt default (enabling government to begin scalping wealth during the transition from the old currency into the new one).

Edited April 28 by JMD

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, montecristo said:

I think the 10 years change advance notice of any change has been reinforce by the waspi ruling.  Freezing the tax threshold is how they intend to tax pensioners more.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/private-pensions/women-state-pensions-waspi-key-facts-know/

It's interesting that even with all the fuss about the WASPI communications I've seen absolutely fuck all communicated about the normal minimum pension age (the earliest age that you can access pensions) being pushed up from 55 to 57 in 2028.

[montecristo]

13 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

It's interesting that even with all the fuss about the WASPI communications I've seen absolutely fuck all communicated about the normal minimum pension age (the earliest age that you can access pensions) being pushed up from 55 to 57 in 2028.

What is adequate communication though?  There was probably a statement in your SIPP t&cs that you clicked agree to. The hmrc portal calls out that my state pension age will be 67 (and can still change).

[SpectrumFX]

11 minutes ago, montecristo said:

What is adequate communication though?  There was probably a statement in your SIPP t&cs that you clicked agree to. The hmrc portal calls out that my state pension age will be 67 (and can still change).

But you have to proactively go to the portal, and when I opened my SIPP they hadn't passed the legislation. In fact, when I joined my main pension schemes the age was 50 and no changes were anticipated. I've had fuck all correspondence from those schemes.

The WASPIs seemed to want some leaflet through the door, and adverts on the tele. Where do you draw the line with this stuff?

[Long time lurking]

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

How's this for societal decay? By the time he cleans all of the shit out of the hydrant connection and gets the hose hooked up the fire is out. Apparently this is quite a common problem now as they're not being maintained properly anymore.

Foreigners commenting in disbelief asking if Britain is a third world country. Why yes, yes it is.

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

I think a little more research is needed from Charlie, what does $170k in pay and benefits entail?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66445496

 

Edited April 28 by M S E Refugee

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

How's this for societal decay?

In fairness he looks very experienced at dealing with that situation, digging it out and then flushing the crap out before he attaches the hose. As a plumber I can tell you those street level outlets get blocked up in no time with silt and rainfall, surprised the valve wasn't stuck shut TBH.

But I will agree, this country is fucking falling apart.

I blame the policies of gov and councils, public sector etc. I was out in central London yesterday, every PS worker, bus driver, boat shuttle operator, street cleaner was BAME, but all the paying customers were mostly white, it don't add up.

[Long time lurking]

6 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think a little more research is needed from Charlie, what does $170k in pay and benefits entail?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66445496

 

Staying five years in the job ,its still well over 100K a per year, plus pension and health care for a delivery drivers job