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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)


spunko

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Royston
13 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

I have pretty much done that over the last few weeks.

Gone completely defensive now. 

80% cash at 4.4% net interest in CSH2

10% miners (Large & Small cap / gold & silver juniors mainly etf/funds)

4% Energy and Oil (mainly etf)

3% EMs

2% Physical Gold 

1% Tobacco (IMB)

 


“Sell in May and go away”. 

Looking at the inverted yield curve (530 days so far and no crash - longest time ever), and the returns the S&P has given since Covid, and how fractured / messed up the UK economy is  - this has to be completely unsustainable. 

The whole market is going down the toilet when this blows up.

Might be today, tomorrow, next week or next year or the year after - but it’s coming…. I don’t need to be caught in the ensuing carnage. More to lose than gain. 

Bring it on….. the last 4 years have been very good post Covid -  hopefully I will be able to repeat on a larger scale when she blows. 
 

edited %’s as my maths was slightly out ! 

 

 

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

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Calcutta

Recession evaded, FTSE ath, silver headed to $30, gold testing 2400, you can hear the engine squeal, how long till something breaks?

FRES just made me more in a morning than I will do from working 40hrs a week for the next month.

Still mostly cash tho, I want Shell for a tenner and QQQ at 4000. Fire and forget. 

Why the fuck am I going to work today man what a punk.

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Calcutta
1 minute ago, Royston said:

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

We only have to be right once, they've got to be right every day.

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leonardratso

This flooding and gold being lost thing, I think you can sue the govt now for the climate change.

Would be funny as fuck if a class action law suite was started using EHCR against the govt for lack of action on net zero.

Also against the SNP for hate speech and policies.

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Castlevania
51 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

734600588.317136public.thumb.jpeg.d63d5376b84bf2a47ad19cf1288657c1.jpeg
 

Also in other news in the background, bit of a dark (well coal black actually) horse, Thungela has been thundering along back up also.

Energy stocks in general. Even Harbour is up circa 20% over a similar period (and it’s gone ex-dividend to boot).

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Lightscribe
9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Energy stocks in general. Even Harbour is up circa 20% over a similar period (and it’s gone ex-dividend to boot).

That’s why conveniently enough my 4 year energy fix comes to an end this September. I’m fixing again for my whole family this weekend as long as possible once again.

Ive not really been impacted by inflation so far

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sleepwello'nights
17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

 

Ive not really been impacted by inflation so far

Not bought any food then?

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Noallegiance
47 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Shanghai Gold

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 2,441.62

Shanghai Silver

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 31.73

The Chinese are turning the screw!

A close above $30 in Western markets would be interesting.

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belfastchild
10 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

A close above $30 in Western markets would be interesting.

Would nearly bring the maples I bought in the US in December 2012 into profit! (if you ignore inflation of course!)

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Lightscribe
1 hour ago, Royston said:

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

Well after 2008 was when the ball was kicked into the long grass but the yield inversion in 2019, reverse repo then 2020 printing 1/5th of all the $ in existence was when the fun really started.

 

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Majorpain
52 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Shanghai Gold

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 2,441.62

Shanghai Silver

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 31.73

The Chinese are turning the screw!

Yes, paper dumps had minimal impact so IMO the tide is finally going out in paper PM market.  Now we see if anyone is swimming naked, or if the banks have had enough time to tidy things up.

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Lightscribe
2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Yes, paper dumps had minimal impact so IMO the tide is finally going out in paper PM market.  Now we see if anyone is swimming naked, or if the banks have had enough time to tidy things up.

Or the tide does indeed go out and they’re just left with the pebbles on the beach…

https://metro.co.uk/2023/03/21/jpmorgan-bought-1300000-of-nickel-that-turned-out-to-be-stone-18479076/amp/

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Mandalorian
1 hour ago, Royston said:

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

It's stopped clock syndrome.

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

We only have to be right once, they've got to be right every day.

Stopped clock syndrome xD

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Democorruptcy
2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You listened to all the FRES naysayers :D

Even @Democorruptcy is a massive FRES no.1 fan now.

I will never be a no.1 fan. Even now it's lagging others. Might be worries about those pesky Mexican politicians.

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CannonFodder
1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Shanghai Gold

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 2,441.62

Shanghai Silver

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 31.73

The Chinese are turning the screw!

Is there a good site for these prices? How do you check them?

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Mandalorian
50 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'm absolutely amazed how Europe's decline is going almost unnoticed. These sorts of numbers should be causing panic, yet there's only complacency.

The trajectory for Europe is now set and it isn't pretty: yesterday's continent, simply not cut out for the new world that's being born.

 

Don't you care about Net Zero?  This is only a good thing.

Do yOu wAnT yOuR cHiLdReN tO BoIL iN a cLiMaTe eMeRgEncY?!

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Mandalorian

Something is definitely going on.

Just opened the spreadsheet and it auto-updates prices for me.

I have a cell that calculates the total daily change in value.

I've made more since going to bed last night than I will earn in the first 6 months of this year.  (Mostly tax free too!)

EVERYTHING is up.  Including the metals.

Unsustainable?  Who knows?

I'm just going to keep on keeping on.

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CannonFodder

 

Just being told about how moving into nuclear will remove the west's dependency on russian energy.

Complete balls of course, but interesting to hear the narrative for the herd.

 

Screenshot_20240412-111716.thumb.png.04d9a22661e53e8240b95d732297b05f.png

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Mandalorian
2 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

 

Just being told about how moving into nuclear will remove the west's dependency on russian energy.

Complete balls of course, but interesting to hear the narrative for the herd.

 

Screenshot_20240412-111716.thumb.png.04d9a22661e53e8240b95d732297b05f.png

Glad to see the decision makers are finally catching up with my long held thesis about uranium.

Will it solve the Net ZeRo 'problem?  Will it stop Poo-tin?

Dunno.  Don't care.  But it will increase the value of my uranium stash.

I love a slice of Yellow Cake in the morning.

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Energy stocks in general. Even Harbour is up circa 20% over a similar period (and it’s gone ex-dividend to boot).

Oil is holding up…the most interesting thing I learned today apart harbor rise is…

uae oil company had preliminary talks to buy bp but nothing happened…pegged currency to dollar…if cable continues to weaken and oil prices remain high then bp really is foreign takeover target..it seems as other posters have said that uk companies could taken over by foreign companies, no matter what their size is..be lucky..

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