Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[Lightscribe]

 

Also in other news in the background, bit of a dark (well coal black actually) horse, Thungela has been thundering along back up also.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

GDP up 0.1% ( if you believe the ONS in the run up to an election or at any time )

GDP per capital  ?

 

Exactly,down and down per capita,and the down is only for the workers,the parasites all made whole.1 million migrants yet GDP cannot grow.

[HousePriceMania]

10 minutes ago, headrow said:

Sold Fres at 582p yesterday. Ouch

Sell:618.00p Buy:620.00p  40.50p (7.00%)

 

This mistake I make is selling when the prices goes up and I make a good profit...too many times now I should have waited for something like....

[Royston]

13 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

I have pretty much done that over the last few weeks.

Gone completely defensive now. 

80% cash at 4.4% net interest in CSH2

10% miners (Large & Small cap / gold & silver juniors mainly etf/funds)

4% Energy and Oil (mainly etf)

3% EMs

2% Physical Gold 

1% Tobacco (IMB)

 

“Sell in May and go away”. 

Looking at the inverted yield curve (530 days so far and no crash - longest time ever), and the returns the S&P has given since Covid, and how fractured / messed up the UK economy is  - this has to be completely unsustainable. 

The whole market is going down the toilet when this blows up.

Might be today, tomorrow, next week or next year or the year after - but it’s coming…. I don’t need to be caught in the ensuing carnage. More to lose than gain. 

Bring it on….. the last 4 years have been very good post Covid -  hopefully I will be able to repeat on a larger scale when she blows. 
 

edited %’s as my maths was slightly out ! 

 

 

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

[Calcutta]

Recession evaded, FTSE ath, silver headed to $30, gold testing 2400, you can hear the engine squeal, how long till something breaks?

FRES just made me more in a morning than I will do from working 40hrs a week for the next month.

Still mostly cash tho, I want Shell for a tenner and QQQ at 4000. Fire and forget. 

Why the fuck am I going to work today man what a punk.

[Calcutta]

1 minute ago, Royston said:

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

We only have to be right once, they've got to be right every day.

[Sasquatch]

Interesting times.

People are now listing sovereigns on ebay at a buy it now price below the going rate. Obviously not keeping up with the price movements.

Cheapest sovereign with Chards/Hatton Garden Metals is £462 or £469 respectively.

This has just been listed:

 

[leonardratso]

This flooding and gold being lost thing, I think you can sue the govt now for the climate change.

Would be funny as fuck if a class action law suite was started using EHCR against the govt for lack of action on net zero.

Also against the SNP for hate speech and policies.

[Castlevania]

51 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

 

Also in other news in the background, bit of a dark (well coal black actually) horse, Thungela has been thundering along back up also.

Energy stocks in general. Even Harbour is up circa 20% over a similar period (and it’s gone ex-dividend to boot).

[M S E Refugee]

Shanghai Gold

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 2,441.62

Shanghai Silver

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 31.73

The Chinese are turning the screw!

Edited April 12 by M S E Refugee

[HousePriceMania]

Bullion by post quote £100 more for a 1oz gold coin than 2 days ago when I checked.

[Lightscribe]

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Energy stocks in general. Even Harbour is up circa 20% over a similar period (and it’s gone ex-dividend to boot).

That’s why conveniently enough my 4 year energy fix comes to an end this September. I’m fixing again for my whole family this weekend as long as possible once again.

Ive not really been impacted by inflation so far

[sleepwello'nights]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

 

Ive not really been impacted by inflation so far

Not bought any food then?

[ThoughtCriminal]

I'm absolutely amazed how Europe's decline is going almost unnoticed. These sorts of numbers should be causing panic, yet there's only complacency.

The trajectory for Europe is now set and it isn't pretty: yesterday's continent, simply not cut out for the new world that's being born.

 

[Noallegiance]

47 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Shanghai Gold

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 2,441.62

Shanghai Silver

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 31.73

The Chinese are turning the screw!

A close above $30 in Western markets would be interesting.

[belfastchild]

10 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

A close above $30 in Western markets would be interesting.

Would nearly bring the maples I bought in the US in December 2012 into profit! (if you ignore inflation of course!)

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Royston said:

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

Well after 2008 was when the ball was kicked into the long grass but the yield inversion in 2019, reverse repo then 2020 printing 1/5th of all the $ in existence was when the fun really started.

 

[Majorpain]

52 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Shanghai Gold

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 2,441.62

Shanghai Silver

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 31.73

The Chinese are turning the screw!

Yes, paper dumps had minimal impact so IMO the tide is finally going out in paper PM market.  Now we see if anyone is swimming naked, or if the banks have had enough time to tidy things up.

[Lightscribe]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Yes, paper dumps had minimal impact so IMO the tide is finally going out in paper PM market.  Now we see if anyone is swimming naked, or if the banks have had enough time to tidy things up.

Or the tide does indeed go out and they’re just left with the pebbles on the beach…

https://metro.co.uk/2023/03/21/jpmorgan-bought-1300000-of-nickel-that-turned-out-to-be-stone-18479076/amp/

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, Royston said:

Remind me again.. how many years is it that we have we been observing this "unsustainable" "everything bubble" that's seemingly permenantly on the verge of going pop?

It's stopped clock syndrome.

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

We only have to be right once, they've got to be right every day.

Stopped clock syndrome

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You listened to all the FRES naysayers 

Even @Democorruptcy is a massive FRES no.1 fan now.

I will never be a no.1 fan. Even now it's lagging others. Might be worries about those pesky Mexican politicians.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Shanghai Gold

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 2,441.62

Shanghai Silver

12 Apr 2024

PM USD 31.73

The Chinese are turning the screw!

Is there a good site for these prices? How do you check them?

[Mandalorian]

50 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I'm absolutely amazed how Europe's decline is going almost unnoticed. These sorts of numbers should be causing panic, yet there's only complacency.

The trajectory for Europe is now set and it isn't pretty: yesterday's continent, simply not cut out for the new world that's being born.

 

Don't you care about Net Zero?  This is only a good thing.

Do yOu wAnT yOuR cHiLdReN tO BoIL iN a cLiMaTe eMeRgEncY?!

[Mandalorian]

Something is definitely going on.

Just opened the spreadsheet and it auto-updates prices for me.

I have a cell that calculates the total daily change in value.

I've made more since going to bed last night than I will earn in the first 6 months of this year.  (Mostly tax free too!)

EVERYTHING is up.  Including the metals.

Unsustainable?  Who knows?

I'm just going to keep on keeping on.

[CannonFodder]

 

Just being told about how moving into nuclear will remove the west's dependency on russian energy.

Complete balls of course, but interesting to hear the narrative for the herd.